An economic approach towards estimating health impacts of major transport investments and transport policies: A case study of transport emission abatement policy

The PhD thesis developed an economic model as an integral part of the current Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework. Based on a Health Production Function approach, the model showed how to estimate economic benefits of positive health gains generated by transport investment programs and transport policies. Using Australian mortality and morbidity statistics and applying econometric analysis, the case study quantified health benefits induced by transport emission abatement policies in dollar terms for the Australian households. Finally, the thesis demonstrated transferability of the economic model through two example case studies, establishing a wider application capacity of the model.

‘Lemon Laws’: an inquiry into consumer protections and remedies for buyers of new motor vehicles

1. Under the Terms of Reference for the Committee’s Inquiry, ‘lemons’ are defined as ‘new motor vehicles with numerous, severe defects that re-occur despite multiple repair attempts or where defects have caused a new motor vehicle to be out of service for a prolonged period of time’. Consumers are currently protected in relation to lemon purchases by the Australian Consumer Law (ACL) located in Schedule 2 of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth) (CCA). The ACL applies as a law of Queensland pursuant to the Fair Trading Act 1989 (Qld). The voluntary recall and consumer guarantees law took effect on 1 January 2011. 2. In 2006, the Government of Victoria made a commitment to introduce a lemon law into the provisions of the then Fair Trading Act 1999 (Vic). The public consultation process on the proposal to introduce a lemon law for motor vehicle purchases in Victoria was conducted by Ms Janice Munt MP, with the assistance of Consumer Affairs Victoria (CAV). CAV released an Issues Paper to canvas with industry and the community options for the development and introduction of a motor vehicle lemon law.(Consumer Affairs Victoria, Introducing Victorian motor vehicle lemon laws, Issues Paper, (September, 2007). 3. A CAV report prepared by Janice Munt MP was released in July, 2008 (Consumer Affairs Victoria, Motor Cars: A report on the motor vehicle lemon law consultations (July 2008) (Victorian Lemon Law Report). However, the Victorian proposal was overtaken by events leading to the adoption of a uniform consumer protection law in all Australian jurisdictions, the ACL. 4. The structure of this submission is to consider first the three different bases upon which consumers can obtain relief for economic loss arising from defects in motor vehicles. The second part of the submission considers the difficulties encountered by consumers in litigating motor vehicle disputes in the courts and tribunals. The third part of the submission examines the approach taken in other jurisdictions to resolving motor vehicle disputes. The final part of the submission considers a number of possible reforms that could be made to the existing law and its enforcement to reduce consumer detriment arising from the purchase of ‘lemon’ motor vehicles. 5. There are three principal bases upon which a consumer can obtain redress for defects in new motor vehicles under the ACL. The first is where the manufacturer admits liability and initiates the voluntary recall procedure provided for in s 128 of the ACL. Under this basis the manufacturer generally repairs or replaces the part subject to the recall free of charge. The second basis is where the manufacturer or dealer denies liability and the consumer is initiates proceedings in the court or tribunal seeking a statutory remedy under the ACL, the nature of which will depend on whether the failure to comply with the consumer guarantee was major or not. The third basis upon which a consumer can obtain redress is pursuant to public enforcement by the ACCC. Each basis will be considered in this part. What all three bases have in common is the need to conduct an investigation to identify the nature of the defect and how it arose.

Comparing China's city transportation and economic networks

The city system has been a prevailing research issue in the fields of urban geography and regional economics. Not only do the relationships between cities in the city system exist in the form of rankings, but also in a more general network form. Previous work has examined the spatial structure of the city system in terms of its separate industrial networks, such as in transportation and economic activity, but little has been done to compare different networks. To rectify this situation, this study analyzes and reveals the spatial structural features of China’s city system by comparing its transportation and economic urban networks, thus providing new avenues for research on China’s city network. The results indicate that these two networks relate with each other by sharing structural equivalence with a basic diamond structure and a layered intercity structure decreasing outwards from the national centers. A decoupling effect also exists between them as the transportation network contributes to a balanced regional development, while the economic network promotes agglomeration economies. The law of economic development and the government both play important roles in the articulation between these two networks, and the gap between them can be shortened by related policy reforms and the improvement of the transportation network.

Economic theory informing approaches to phoenix activity in small business: A neo-Schumpeterian analysis

The adequacy and efficiency of existing legal and regulatory frameworks dealing with corporate phoenix activity have been repeatedly called into question over the past two decades through various reviews, inquiries, targeted regulatory operations and the implementation of piecemeal legislative reform. Despite these efforts, phoenix activity does not appear to have abated. While there is no law in Australia that declares ‘phoenix activity’ to be illegal, the behaviour that tends to manifest in phoenix activity can be capable of transgressing a vast array of law, including for example, corporate law, tax law, and employment law. This paper explores the notion that the persistence of phoenix activity despite the sheer extent of this law suggests that the law is not acting as powerfully as it might as a deterrent. Economic theories of entrepreneurship and innovation can to some extent explain why this is the case and also offer a sound basis for the evaluation and reconsideration of the existing law. The challenges facing key regulators are significant. Phoenix activity is not limited to particular corporate demographic: it occurs in SMEs, large companies and in corporate groups. The range of behaviour that can amount to phoenix activity is so broad, that not all phoenix activity is illegal. This paper will consider regulatory approaches to these challenges via analysis of approaches to detection and enforcement of the underlying law capturing illegal phoenix activity. Remedying the mischief of phoenix activity is of practical importance. The benefits include continued confidence in our economy, law that inspires best practice among directors, and law that is articulated in a manner such that penalties act as a sufficient deterrent and the regulatory system is able to detect offenders and bring them to account. Any further reforms must accommodate and tolerate legal phoenix activity, at least to some extent. Even then, phoenix activity pushes tolerance of repeated entrepreneurial failure to its absolute limit. The more limited liability is misused and abused, the stronger the argument to place some restrictions on access to limited liability. This paper proposes that such an approach is a legitimate next step for a robust and mature capitalist economy.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Challenges in developing a new regional road safety strategy for ASEAN

In 2011, more than 75,000 people died in road crashes in the ten member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and many times this number sustained long term injuries. Improving road safety outcomes in ASEAN is not only important for the welfare and economic benefit of these countries, but given that a significant proportion of the world's population lives in ASEAN, it will strongly influence whether the aims of the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety and the Sustainable Development Goals are reached. Following the ASEAN Senior Transport Officials Meeting in May 2011, the Secretariat requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide assistance to improve road safety in ASEAN. In response, ADB, funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, has funded a package of action to improve road safety in ASEAN, including the development of a new regional road safety strategy. The diversity of the member nations of ASEAN poses significant challenges for the development of the strategy. For example, the road fatality rates per 100,000 population in Malaysia and Thailand are about 5 times greater than in Singapore. In addition, the importance of particular road safety issues varies across the ASEAN countries and for countries which are undergoing rapid motorization, the order of importance may change over the life of the strategy. The development of the ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy has adopted the five pillars of road safety of the UN Decade of Action but focused on those aspects which are most relevant at the regional level and where a regional approach will support and facilitate actions taken by individual countries. A draft ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy document has been prepared and consultation will further refine its directions and contents. The paper will describe the processes undertaken to identify issues and solutions, the measurement of road safety maturity and behavioural risk factors, and the overall structure and themes of the strategy.

Economic consideration for reducing hospital presentations among patients with decompensated cirrhosis: not all presentations avoided can be considered equal

Individuals with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites requiring paracentesis utilize exceptionally high levels of hospital resources. Consequently, potential modifications to existing models of healthcare to assist patients in the management of their liver disease and reduce the need for hospital encounters have potential to improve patients’ health and reduce demand on acute hospital services. However, there is a paucity of data examining how much healthcare resources could be re-directed to interventions that prevent hospitalizations without net annual budgetary disadvantage (from the hospital’s perspective). The purpose of this study was to probabilistically examine how much healthcare resourcing could be saved per hospital presentation avoided among this clinical population.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.

Information technology and its changing roles to economic growth and productivity in Australia

In this paper we describe our investigation of the role of investment in information technology (IT) on economic output and productivity in Australia over a period of about four decades. The framework used in this paper is the aggregate production function, where IT capital is considered as a separate input of production along with non-IT capital and labour. The empirical results from the study indicate the evidence of robust technical progress in the Australian economy in the 1990s. IT capital had a significant impact on output, labour productivity and technical progress in the 1990s. In recent years, however, the contribution of IT capital on output and labour productivity has slowed down. Regaining the IT capital productivity therefore remains as a key challenge for Australia, especially in the context of greater IT investment in the future.

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

The economic consequences of financial reporting on Twitter

The use of social media has spread into many different areas including marketing, customer service, and corporate disclosure. However, our understanding of the timely effect of financial reporting information on Twitter is still limited. In this paper, we propose to examine the timely effect of financial reporting information on Twitter in Australian context, as reflect in the stock market trading. We aim to find out whether the level of information asymmetry within the stock market will be reduced, after the introduction of Twitter and the use of Twitter for financial reporting purpose

The economic consequences of corporate financial reporting on Twitter

The use of social media has spread into many different areas including marketing, customer service, and corporate disclosure. However, our understanding of the timely effect of financial reporting information on Twitter is still limited. In this paper, we examine the timely effect of financial reporting information on Twitter in the Australian context, as reflected in the follow-up stock market reaction. With the use of event methodology and comparative setting, we find that financial reporting disclosure on Twitter reduces the information asymmetry level. This is evidenced by reduction of bid-ask spread and increase of share trading volume. The results of this study imply that financial reporting disclosure on social media assists the dissemination of information and the stock market response to this information

Key drivers of the economic burden of community-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Australia

Estimates of the economic cost of community-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(CA-MRSA) in the United States (US) are substantial, ranging from $1.4-13.8 billion. In Australia, it has been shown that rates of CA-MRSA are increasing, and individual studies have looked at the morbidity and mortality associated with CA-MRSA, however, it is not clear what is driving the economic burden of CA-MRSA at a national level. This study presents preliminary findings about the key drivers of the economic cost of CA-MRSA infections in Australia