Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Construction of volcanic records from marine sediment cores : a review and case study (Montserrat, West Indies)

Detailed knowledge of the past history of an active volcano is crucial for the prediction of the timing, frequency and style of future eruptions, and for the identification of potentially at-risk areas. Subaerial volcanic stratigraphies are often incomplete, due to a lack of exposure, or burial and erosion from subsequent eruptions. However, many volcanic eruptions produce widely-dispersed explosive products that are frequently deposited as tephra layers in the sea. Cores of marine sediment therefore have the potential to provide more complete volcanic stratigraphies, at least for explosive eruptions. Nevertheless, problems such as bioturbation and dispersal by currents affect the preservation and subsequent detection of marine tephra deposits. Consequently, cryptotephras, in which tephra grains are not sufficiently concentrated to form layers that are visible to the naked eye, may be the only record of many explosive eruptions. Additionally, thin, reworked deposits of volcanic clasts transported by floods and landslides, or during pyroclastic density currents may be incorrectly interpreted as tephra fallout layers, leading to the construction of inaccurate records of volcanism. This work uses samples from the volcanic island of Montserrat as a case study to test different techniques for generating volcanic eruption records from marine sediment cores, with a particular relevance to cores sampled in relatively proximal settings (i.e. tens of kilometres from the volcanic source) where volcaniclastic material may form a pervasive component of the sedimentary sequence. Visible volcaniclastic deposits identified by sedimentological logging were used to test the effectiveness of potential alternative volcaniclastic-deposit detection techniques, including point counting of grain types (component analysis), glass or mineral chemistry, colour spectrophotometry, grain size measurements, XRF core scanning, magnetic susceptibility and X-radiography. This study demonstrates that a set of time-efficient, non-destructive and high-spatial-resolution analyses (e.g. XRF core-scanning and magnetic susceptibility) can be used effectively to detect potential cryptotephra horizons in marine sediment cores. Once these horizons have been sampled, microscope image analysis of volcaniclastic grains can be used successfully to discriminate between tephra fallout deposits and other volcaniclastic deposits, by using specific criteria related to clast morphology and sorting. Standard practice should be employed when analysing marine sediment cores to accurately identify both visible tephra and cryptotephra deposits, and to distinguish fallout deposits from other volcaniclastic deposits.

Possible impact of human CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the metabolism of acrylonitrile

Case reports of human accidental poisonings point to significant individual differences in human acrylonitrile metabolism and toxicity. A cohort of 59 persons with industrial handling of low levels of acrylonitrile has repetitively been studied from 1994 through 1999 as part of a medical surveillance programme. The analyses included adduct determinations of N-terminal N-(cyanoethyl)valine in haemoglobin and genotypings of the following cytochrome P-450 2E1 (CYP2E1) polymorphisms: G-1259C and C-1019T (two subjects heterozygous), A-316G (three subjects heterozygous), T-297A (15 subjects heterozygous), G-35T (eight subjects heterozygous), G4804A (two subjects heterozygous), T7668A (six subjects heterozygous). N-(Cyanoethyl)valine adduct levels were, if any, only slightly influenced by smoking and mainly determined by the external acrylonitrile exposures. The individual means and medians of N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels over the entire observation period were compared with the CYP2E1 variants (Wilcoxon rank sum test). No influences of the investigated CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels appeared at the 5% level. However, there was a trend, at a level of P≃0.1, pointing to higher acrylonitrile-specific adduct levels in persons with the A-316G mutation. Higher adduct levels would be compatible with a slower CYP2E1-mediated metabolism of acrylonitrile and with lower extents of toxification to cyanide.

Cyclododecane as support material for clean and facile transfer of large-area few-layer graphene

The transfer of chemical vapor deposited graphene is a crucial process, which can affect the quality of the transferred films and compromise their application in devices. Finding a robust and intrinsically clean material capable of easing the transfer of graphene without interfering with its properties remains a challenge. We here propose the use of an organic compound, cyclododecane, as a transfer material. This material can be easily spin coated on graphene and assist the transfer, leaving no residues and requiring no further removal processes. The effectiveness of this transfer method for few-layer graphene on a large area was evaluated and confirmed by microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, x-ray photoemission spectroscopy, and four-point probe measurements. Schottky-barrier solar cells with few-layer graphene were fabricated on silicon wafers by using the cyclododecane transfer method and outperformed reference cells made by standard methods.

Using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire to predict crashes and demerit point loss : does it get better with larger sample sizes?

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) continues to be the most widely utilised self-report scale globally to assess crash risk and aberrant driving behaviours among motorists. However, the scale also attracts criticism regarding its perceived limited ability to accurately identify those most at risk of crash involvement. This study reports on the utilisation of the DBQ to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (and crash outcomes) of drivers in three separate Australian fleet samples (N = 443, N = 3414, & N = 4792), and whether combining the samples increases the tool’s predictive ability. Either on-line or paper versions of the questionnaire were completed by fleet employees in three organisations. Factor analytic techniques identified either three or four factor solutions (in each of the separate studies) and the combined sample produced expected factors of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Highway code violations (and mean scores) were comparable across the studies. However, across the three samples, multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road was the best predictor of crash involvement at work, rather than DBQ constructs. Furthermore, combining the scores to produce a sample of 8649 drivers did not improve the predictive ability of the tool for identifying crashes (e.g., 0.4% correctly identified) or for demerit point loss (0.3%). The paper outlines the major findings of this comparative sample study in regards to utilising self-report measurement tools to identify “at risk” drivers as well as the application of such data to future research endeavours.

Improving national hospice/palliative care service symptom outcomes systematically through point-of-care data collection, structured feedback and benchmarking

PURPOSE Every health care sector including hospice/palliative care needs to systematically improve services using patient-defined outcomes. Data from the national Australian Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration aims to define whether hospice/palliative care patients' outcomes and the consistency of these outcomes have improved in the last 3 years. METHODS Data were analysed by clinical phase (stable, unstable, deteriorating, terminal). Patient-level data included the Symptom Assessment Scale and the Palliative Care Problem Severity Score. Nationally collected point-of-care data were anchored for the period July-December 2008 and subsequently compared to this baseline in six 6-month reporting cycles for all services that submitted data in every time period (n = 30) using individual longitudinal multi-level random coefficient models. RESULTS Data were analysed for 19,747 patients (46 % female; 85 % cancer; 27,928 episodes of care; 65,463 phases). There were significant improvements across all domains (symptom control, family care, psychological and spiritual care) except pain. Simultaneously, the interquartile ranges decreased, jointly indicating that better and more consistent patient outcomes were being achieved. CONCLUSION These are the first national hospice/palliative care symptom control performance data to demonstrate improvements in clinical outcomes at a service level as a result of routine data collection and systematic feedback.

A hybrid maximum power point tracking for partially shaded photovoltaic systems in the tropics

Partial shading and rapidly changing irradiance conditions significantly impact on the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These impacts are particularly severe in tropical regions where the climatic conditions result in very large and rapid changes in irradiance. In this paper, a hybrid maximum power point (MPP) tracking (MPPT) technique for PV systems operating under partially shaded conditions witapid irradiance change is proposed. It combines a conventional MPPT and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based MPPT. A low cost method is proposed to predict the global MPP region when expensive irradiance sensors are not available or are not justifiable for cost reasons. It samples the operating point on the stairs of I–V curve and uses a combination of the measured current value at each stair to predict the global MPP region. The conventional MPPT is then used to search within the classified region to get the global MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed MPPT is demonstrated using both simulations and an experimental setup. Experimental comparisons with four existing MPPTs are performed. The results show that the proposed MPPT produces more energy than the other techniques and can effectively track the global MPP with a fast tracking speed under various shading patterns.

Better health outcomes for people with physical disabilities in China through audits of mobility related access : a research and implementation need

China has 85 million people with disabilities, 30% of whom have a physical disability(1). Up to 2006, overall disability rates increased by 0.5% per year, more for males and in rural areas, and rates of physical disability increased by 11.2% per year(2). With population ageing the proportion of people with disability will increase even faster. In May 2014 the 67th World Health Assembly adopted a resolution endorsing the WHO Global Disability Action Plan 2014–2021. One of its three objectives is “to remove barriers and improve access to health services and programmes”. Access to transport contributes to positive health outcomes both directly and indirectly (e.g. access to economic opportunities, which is associated with better health)(3). However, once people with physical disabilities leave their dwellings they are confronted with physical barriers to their mobility, ranging from the condition/provision of paths to the cost/availability of transport and access to buildings. In addition, their mobility restrictions increase their vulnerability as road users, exposing them to a higher risk of injury through road crashes. QUT's School of Public Health and Social Work (PHSW) and and Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety-Queensland (CARRS-Q) CARRS-Q have been collaborating on development of a combined disability audit and road safety access tool that can identify transport barriers and safety issues along the routes taken by people with disabilities, to enable prioritisation of actions to address these issues. There are also spin-off benefits for other road users from addressing the rising toll of disability through road crashes in China(4). The tool has undergone initial proof-of-concept testing in India and Viet Nam, and is currently being assessed in Cambodia and Laos. Given the rapid development of China, increases in rates of physical disability and the impacts of an ageing population, it is proposed to establish collaborative research through the Australia-China Centre for Public Health to (1) tailor the combined road safety audit and disability access tool for use in China; (2) evaluate its use on a sample of routes; (3) develop plans for changes to the routes in consultation with local authorities; (4) evaluate the effectiveness of implemented changes in terms of access and health. 1. Zheng, Q, et al, 2014. Health and Quality of Life Outcomes, 12:25. 2. Zheng, X, et al, 2011. Bull World Health Org, 89:788–797. 3. Götschi, T & Kahlmeier, S, 2011. Integrated Transport, Health, and Sustainability Assessment (INTHESA): Final Report. Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich. 4. Lin, T, et al, 2013. J Public Health, 35:541–547.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of the Galilee and central Eromanga basins, Australia: New insights into aquifer/aquitard geometry and potential influence of faults on inter-connectivity

Study region The Galilee and Eromanga basins are located in central Queensland, Australia. Both basins are components of the Great Artesian Basin which host some of the most significant groundwater resources in Australia. Study focus This study evaluates the influence of regional faults on groundwater flow in an aquifer/aquitard interbedded succession that form one of the largest Artesian Basins in the world. In order to assess the significance of regional faults as potential barriers or conduits to groundwater flow, vertical displacements of the major aquifers and aquitards were studied at each major fault and the general hydraulic relationship of units that are juxtaposed by the faults were considered. A three-dimensional (3D) geological model of the Galilee and Eromanga basins was developed based on integration of well log data, seismic surfaces, surface geology and elevation data. Geological structures were mapped in detail and major faults were characterised. New hydrological insights for the region Major faults that have been described in previous studies have been confirmed within the 3D geological model domain and a preliminary assessment of their hydraulic significance has been conducted. Previously unknown faults such as the Thomson River Fault (herein named) have also been identified in this study.

Assessment of the effects of CT dose in averaged x-ray CT images of a dose-sensitive polymer gel

The signal-to-noise ratio achievable in x-ray computed tomography (CT) images of polymer gels can be increased by averaging over multiple scans of each sample. However, repeated scanning delivers a small additional dose to the gel which may compromise the accuracy of the dose measurement. In this study, a NIPAM-based polymer gel was irradiated and then CT scanned 25 times, with the resulting data used to derive an averaged image and a "zero-scan" image of the gel. Comparison between these two results and the first scan of the gel showed that the averaged and zero-scan images provided better contrast, higher contrast-to- noise and higher signal-to-noise than the initial scan. The pixel values (Hounsfield units, HU) in the averaged image were not noticeably elevated, compared to the zero-scan result and the gradients used in the linear extrapolation of the zero-scan images were small and symmetrically distributed around zero. These results indicate that the averaged image was not artificially lightened by the small, additional dose delivered during CT scanning. This work demonstrates the broader usefulness of the zero-scan method as a means to verify the dosimetric accuracy of gel images derived from averaged x-ray CT data.

Formation of the three-dimensional geometry of the red blood cell membrane

Red blood cells (RBCs) are nonnucleated liquid capsules, enclosed in deformable viscoelastic membranes with complex three dimensional geometrical structures. Generally, RBC membranes are highly incompressible and resistant to areal changes. However, RBC membranes show a planar shear deformation and out of plane bending deformation. The behaviour of RBCs in blood vessels is investigated using numerical models. All the characteristics of RBC membranes should be addressed to develop a more accurate and stable model. This article presents an effective methodology to model the three dimensional geometry of the RBC membrane with the aid of commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics 4.2a and Fortran programming. Initially, a mesh is generated for a sphere using the COMSOL Multiphysics software to represent the RBC membrane. The elastic energy of the membrane is considered to determine a stable membrane shape. Then, the actual biconcave shape of the membrane is obtained based on the principle of virtual work, when the total energy is minimised. The geometry of the RBC membrane could be used with meshfree particle methods to simulate motion and deformation of RBCs in micro-capillaries