302 resultados para Phenology Shifts
Resumo:
Three thousand liters of water were infiltrated from a 4 m diameter pond to track flow and transport inside fractured carbonates with 20-40 % porosity. Sixteen time-lapse 3D Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys with repetition intervals between 2 hrs and 5 days monitored the spreading of the water bulb in the subsurface. Based on local travel time shifts between repeated GPR survey pairs, localized changes of volumetric water content can be related to the processes of wetting, saturation and drainage. Deformation bands consisting of thin sub vertical sheets of crushed grains reduce the magnitude of water content changes but enhance flow in sheet parallel direction. This causes an earlier break through across a stratigraphic boundary compared to porous limestone without deformation bands. This experiment shows how time-lapse 3D GPR or 4D GPR can non-invasively track ongoing flow processes in rock-volumes of over 100 m3.
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Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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This article establishes whether there is a case for revising traditional accounts of politics and the public sphere given the ways in which digital technology is now being used in Western and non-Western settings to engage people politically. The article presents a case for framing this inquiry in terms of imaginaries. It then argues for a new political imaginary which helps to specify what is required for deliberative democratic practice in a way that shifts us away from the dominant liberal-utilitarian political imaginary that currently informs the political value systems of most Western nations. Drawing on the work of key political theorists such as Habermas and Dahlgren, five propositions or conditions for deliberative practice are identified that can be used in empirical investigation to help determine the democratic capacity and potential of new political communication and civic spaces being opened by means of digital media.
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This paper is concerned with how refugee stories can be used as the means of exploring values and developing intercultural understanding in the English classroom. To illustrate this possibility, André Dao’s (2005) Vuot Bien – The Search for Freedom: Huong Thi Nguen’s Story, about the impact of war and oppression on people’s lives, together with the experience of seeking freedom and acceptance in Australia as a Vietnamese refugee, is selected as the text for a Year 9 English class. In examining the features of this short story, we also consider how recent efforts to foster intercultural understanding in the new national curriculum in Australia might be advanced in the English classroom. We argue that this text and others in the genre of refugee narratives written by young people, provide vicarious opportunities to analyse how valuing freedom and having the courage to seek it can be brought to light when an individual survives one life and begins the challenges of creating a new life among strangers. Examining the values dimensions of such texts also allows young people to unpack and critique the ways in which cultural experiences, including their own, shape and form identities and how engaging with the experiences of others can be the vehicle for valuing difference. We hope our discussion might encourage teachers in other countries undergoing cultural shifts in response to the movements of people will be encouraged to consider this ‘double entendre’ in which the refugee experience is shaped not only by ‘the journey’ and also by ‘the arrival’ and the degree to which newcomers, refugee or asylum seekers, are made welcome by the receiving community.
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Shifts in genre definitions and classifications over time are very much a part of a living art form such as cinema. Films that today we might identify as bearing some of the hallmarks of the thriller, but which were not understood as such at the time of release, have been made in Australia since the earliest days of narrative cinema. The Story of the Kelly Gang (Charles Tait, 1906) contains some of the thriller’s stock elements: crime, conspiracy, suspense, a chase, heroes and villains. The fact that these elements are not exclusive to the thriller underscores the point that genres change, evolve, and often overlap. While contemporary reportage attests that The Story of the Kelly Gang thrilled audiences, it was not named as a ‘thriller’ at the time. Even so, a genealogy of the thriller can be traced through Australian film history, despite quiescent periods.
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The regulatory framework for corporate governance, both in Australia and internationally, shifts between rules based regimes and principles based approach. The rules based regimes are typified by legislation that imposes mandated compliance based rules, such as the Sarbanes Oxley Act. Other regimes, such as Australia’s CLERP 9 and the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles, have opted for a disclosure approach. This paper examines these approaches in the context of the non-binding vote rule, which arguably combines aspects of both. The study’s methodology empirically considers evidence relating to actual voting patterns as well as case study examples of the non-binding vote’s effectiveness. Significantly, our analyses show that from its inception, the non-binding vote was effective in motivating management to change the remuneration package to one they perceived as more acceptable to shareholders and that the non-binding vote is an effective regime to manage CEO remuneration (and by extension) executive remuneration.
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This article provides a general review of the literature on the nature and role of empathy in social interaction for information professionals working in a variety of information and knowledge environments. Relational agency theory (Edwards, 2005) is used asa framework to re-conceptualize education for empathic social interaction between information professionals and their clients. Past, present and future issues relevant to empathic interaction in information and knowledge management are discussed in the context of three shifts identified from the literature: (a) the continued increase in communication channels, both physical and virtual, for reference, information and re-search services, (b) the transition from the information age to the conceptual age and(c) the growing need for understanding of the affective paradigm in the information and knowledge professions. Findings from the literature review on the relationships between empathy and information behavior, social networking, knowledge management and information and knowledge services are presented. Findings are discussed in relation to the development of guidelines for the affective education and training of information and knowledge professionals and the potential use of virtual learning software such as Second Life in developing empathic communication skills
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A number of online algorithms have been developed that have small additional loss (regret) compared to the best “shifting expert”. In this model, there is a set of experts and the comparator is the best partition of the trial sequence into a small number of segments, where the expert of smallest loss is chosen in each segment. The regret is typically defined for worst-case data / loss sequences. There has been a recent surge of interest in online algorithms that combine good worst-case guarantees with much improved performance on easy data. A practically relevant class of easy data is the case when the loss of each expert is iid and the best and second best experts have a gap between their mean loss. In the full information setting, the FlipFlop algorithm by De Rooij et al. (2014) combines the best of the iid optimal Follow-The-Leader (FL) and the worst-case-safe Hedge algorithms, whereas in the bandit information case SAO by Bubeck and Slivkins (2012) competes with the iid optimal UCB and the worst-case-safe EXP3. We ask the same question for the shifting expert problem. First, we ask what are the simple and efficient algorithms for the shifting experts problem when the loss sequence in each segment is iid with respect to a fixed but unknown distribution. Second, we ask how to efficiently unite the performance of such algorithms on easy data with worst-case robustness. A particular intriguing open problem is the case when the comparator shifts within a small subset of experts from a large set under the assumption that the losses in each segment are iid.
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Background Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases
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This research utilised software developed for managing the Australian sugar industry's cane rail transport operations and GPS data used to track locomotives to ensure safe operation of the railway system to improve transport operations. As a result, time usage in the sugarcane railway can now be summarised and locomotive arrival time to sidings and mills can be predicted. This information will help the development of more efficient run schedules and enable mill staff and harvesters to better plan their shifts ahead, enabling cost reductions through better use of available time.
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Australia has a long history of policy attention to the education of poor and working-class youth (Connell, 1994), yet currently on standardized educational outcomes measures the gaps are widening in ways that relate to social background, including race, location and class. An economic analysis of school choice in Australia reveals that a high proportion of government school students now come from lower Socio-Economic Status (SES) backgrounds (Ryan & Watson, 2004), indicating a trend towards a gradual residualisation of the poor in government schools, with increased private school enrolments as a confirmed national trend. The spatial distribution of poverty and the effects on school populations are not unique to Australia (Lupton, 2003; Lipman, 2011; Ryan, 2010). Raffo and colleagues (2010) recently provided a synthesis of socially critical approaches towards schooling and poverty arguing that what is needed are shifts in the balances of power to reposition those within the educational system as having some say in the ways schooling is organized. ‘Disadvantaged’ primary schools are not a marginal concern for education systems, but now account for a large and growing number of schools that serve an ever increasing population being made redundant, in part-time precarious work, under-employed or unemployed (Thomson 2002; Smyth, Down et al 2010). In Australia, the notion of the ‘disadvantaged’ school now refers to those, mostly public schools, being residualised by a politics of parental choice that drives neoliberalising policy logic (Bonner & Caro 2007; Hattam & Comber, forthcoming 2014; Thomson & Reid, 2003)...
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This paper explores the effects of PLM and BIM on professional practice. It draws on existing literature documenting the experiences of both communities of practice to explain shifts in professional boundaries. A review of case study based literature compares the nature of changes triggered by PLM and BIM relative to the new activities, roles/responsibilities and knowledge competencies, and supply chain relationships. The paper synthesises these changes and reflects PLM and BIM experiences against each other so as to contrast the continuing evolution of professional practice and lessons learned.
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This paper discusses the emergence of assessment for learning (AfL) across the globe with particular attention given to Western educational jurisdictions. Authors from Australia, Canada, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, and the USA explain the genesis of AfL, its evolution and impact on school systems, and discuss current trends in policy directions for AfL within their respective countries. The authors also discuss the implications of these various shifts and the ongoing tensions that exist between AfL and summative forms of assessment within national policy initiatives.
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Global shifts in design practice, design education and in higher education in general have radically changed teaching practices over the past decade. In a time of tightening budgets and other factors, various paradigm shifts and challenges are continually evolving and rapidly changing the higher education landscape. Rising to these challenges and responding to them is a complex task, requiring creative approaches applied to traditional methods and tools in interior architecture and interior design courses. The focus of this paper is a discussion of the adaptation of an ‘old school’ traditional tutorial approach within the context of online interior design education, which was applied in an endeavour to increase student engagement with current relevant literature pertinent to interior design theory and practice. The adaptation and application of this tutorial approach, the O-tutorial, creates a necessary link to critical thinking and meta-cognition connecting theoretical concepts to interior design process and practice. Initial data reveals that the O-tutorial allows students to engage and critically analyse issues surrounding theory and practice, thus equipping them with the skills as future design professionals. The paper concludes with reflections and recommendations for interior design education and future potential use and application of the O-tutorial.
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Higher education institutions have made some progress towards Engineering Education for Sustainable Development (EESD). There is however a ‘time lag dilemma’ facing engineering educators, where the pace of traditional curriculum renewal may not be sufficient to keep up with potential market,regulatory and institutional shifts.