Theory and practice of automotive modal lock-in – an Indonesian case

This thesis examines the question why the automotive mode and the large technological system it creates, continues to dominate urban transport systems despite the availability of more cost-efficient alternatives. A number of theoretical insights are developed into the way these losses evolve from path dependent growth, and lead to market failure and lock-in. The important role of asymmetries of influence is highlighted. A survey of commuters in Jakarta Indonesia is used to provide a measure of transport modal lock-in (TML) in a developing country conurbation. A discrete choice experiment is used to provide evidence for the thesis central hypothesis that in such conurbations there is a high level of commuter awareness of the negative externalities generated by TML which can produce a strong level of support for its reversal. Why TML nevertheless remains a strong and durable feature of the transport system is examined with reference to the role of asymmetries of influence.

Evaluation of features for leaf classification in challenging conditions

Fine-grained leaf classification has concentrated on the use of traditional shape and statistical features to classify ideal images. In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of traditional hand-crafted features and propose the use of deep convolutional neural network (ConvNet) features. We introduce a range of condition variations to explore the robustness of these features, including: translation, scaling, rotation, shading and occlusion. Evaluations on the Flavia dataset demonstrate that in ideal imaging conditions, combining traditional and ConvNet features yields state-of-theart performance with an average accuracy of 97:3%�0:6% compared to traditional features which obtain an average accuracy of 91:2%�1:6%. Further experiments show that this combined classification approach consistently outperforms the best set of traditional features by an average of 5:7% for all of the evaluated condition variations.

Assessing agronomic and environmental implications of different N fertilisation strategies in subtropical grain cropping systems on Oxisols

A multi-season 15N tracer recovery experiment was conducted on an Oxisol cropped with wheat, maize and sorghum to compare crop N recoveries of different fertilisation strategies and determine the main pathways of N losses that limit N recovery in these agroecosystems. In the wheat and maize seasons, 15N-labelled fertiliser was applied as conventional urea (CONV) and urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor (DMPP). In sorghum, the fate of 15N-labelled urea was monitored in this crop following a legume ley pasture (L70) or a grass ley pasture (G100). The fertiliser N applied to sorghum in the legume-cereal rotation was reduced (70 kg N ha−1) compared to the grass-cereal (100 kg N ha−1) to assess the availability of the N residual from the legume ley pasture. Average crop N recoveries were 73 % (CONV) and 77 % (DMPP) in wheat and 50 % (CONV) and 51 % (DMPP) in maize, while in sorghum were 71 % (L70) and 53 % (G100). Data gathered in this study indicate that the intrinsic physical and chemical conditions of Oxisols can be extremely effective in limiting N losses via deep leaching or denitrification. Elevated crop 15N recoveries can be therefore obtained in subtropical Oxisols using conventional urea while in these agroecosystems DMPP urea has no significant scope to increase fertiliser N recovery in the crop. Overall, introducing a legume phase to limit the fertiliser N requirements of the following cereal crop proved to be the most effective strategy to reduce N losses and increase fertiliser N recovery.

Correlation based method for phase identification in a three phase LV distribution network

Low voltage distribution networks feature a high degree of load unbalance and the addition of rooftop photovoltaic is driving further unbalances in the network. Single phase consumers are distributed across the phases but even if the consumer distribution was well balanced when the network was constructed changes will occur over time. Distribution transformer losses are increased by unbalanced loadings. The estimation of transformer losses is a necessary part of the routine upgrading and replacement of transformers and the identification of the phase connections of households allows a precise estimation of the phase loadings and total transformer loss. This paper presents a new technique and preliminary test results for a method of automatically identifying the phase of each customer by correlating voltage information from the utility's transformer system with voltage information from customer smart meters. The techniques are novel as they are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken at the household and at the distribution transformer. Experimental results using a combination of electrical power and current of the real smart meter datasets demonstrate the performance of our techniques.

A hybrid maximum power point tracking for partially shaded photovoltaic systems in the tropics

Partial shading and rapidly changing irradiance conditions significantly impact on the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These impacts are particularly severe in tropical regions where the climatic conditions result in very large and rapid changes in irradiance. In this paper, a hybrid maximum power point (MPP) tracking (MPPT) technique for PV systems operating under partially shaded conditions witapid irradiance change is proposed. It combines a conventional MPPT and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based MPPT. A low cost method is proposed to predict the global MPP region when expensive irradiance sensors are not available or are not justifiable for cost reasons. It samples the operating point on the stairs of I–V curve and uses a combination of the measured current value at each stair to predict the global MPP region. The conventional MPPT is then used to search within the classified region to get the global MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed MPPT is demonstrated using both simulations and an experimental setup. Experimental comparisons with four existing MPPTs are performed. The results show that the proposed MPPT produces more energy than the other techniques and can effectively track the global MPP with a fast tracking speed under various shading patterns.

Methods to improve the energy output of dye sensitized solar cell arrays

The work examined the operation and optimisation of dye-sensitised solar cell arrays, informing ways to improve performance through materials choices and geometrical design. Methods to improve the output of solar arrays under shading by external objects like trees or building were developed.

An efficiency optimization scheme for bidirectional inductive power transfer systems

Unidirectional inductive power transfer (UIPT) systems allow loads to consume power while bidirectional IPT (BIPT) systems are more suitable for loads requiring two way power flow such as vehicle to grid (V2G) applications with electric vehicles (EVs). Many attempts have been made to improve the performance of BIPT systems. In a typical BIPT system, the output power is control using the pickup converter phase shift angle (PSA) while the primary converter regulates the input current. This paper proposes an optimized phase shift modulation strategy to minimize the coil losses of a series – series (SS) compensated BIPT system. In addition, a comprehensive study on the impact of power converters on the overall efficiency of the system is also presented. A closed loop controller is proposed to optimize the overall efficiency of the BIPT system. Theoretical results are presented in comparison to both simulations and measurements of a 0.5 kW prototype to show the benefits of the proposed concept. Results convincingly demonstrate the applicability of the proposed system offering high efficiency over a wide range of output power.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Improving the police response to online fraud

Online fraud poses a significant problem to society in terms of its monetary losses and the devastating impact on victims. It also poses significant challenges to law enforcement agencies, regarding their ability to investigate crimes which are complex, occur in a virtual environment, incorporate multiple (often international) jurisdictions, and have a very low reporting rate. This paper examines the police response to online fraud. It argues that traditionally, fraud has received little attention and priority from police agencies and this is exacerbated in the online context. In contrast to this, the paper presents the example of Project Sunbird, a partnership between the West Australian Police and the West Australian Department of Commerce which has embraced the use of financial intelligence to proactively contact suspected victims of online fraud. This paper argues that a proactive approach to policing online fraud can have substantial positive effects for police and victims alike.

A new period of volcanogenic massive sulfide formation in the Yilgarn: A volcanological study of the ca 2.76 Ga Hollandaire VMS deposit, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

The Archean Hollandaire volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit is a felsic–siliciclastic VMS deposit located in the Murchison Domain of the Youanmi Terrane, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. It is hosted in a succession of turbidites, mudstones and coherent rhyodacite sills and has been metamorphosed to upper greenschist/lower amphibolite facies and includes a pervasive S1 deformational fabric. The coherent rhyodacitic sills are interpreted as syndepositional based on geochemical similarities with well-known VMS-associated felsic rocks and similar foliations to the metasediments. We offer several explanations for the absence of textural evidence (e.g. breccias) for syn-depositional origins: 1) the subaqueous sediments were dehydrated by long-lived magmatism such that no pore-water remained to drive quench fragmentation; 2) pore-space occlusion by burial and/or, 3) alteration overprinting and obscuring of primary breccias at contact margins. Mineralisation occurs by sub-seafloor replacement of original host rocks in two ore bodies, Hollandaire Main (~125 x >500 m and ~8 m thick) and Hollandaire West (~100 x 470 m and ~5 m thick), and occurs in three main textural styles, massive sulfides, which are exclusively hosted in turbidites and mudstones, and stringer and disseminated sulfides, which are also hosted in coherent rhyodacite. Most sulfides have textures consistent with remobilisation and recrystallisation. Hydrothermal metamorphism has altered the hangingwall and footwall to similar degrees, with significant gains in Mg, Mn and K and losses in Na, Ca and Sr. Garnet and staurolite porphyryoblasts also exhibit a footprint around mineralisation, extending up to 30 m both above and below the ore zone. High precision thermal ionisation mass spectrometry of zircons extracted from the coherent rhyodacite yield an age of 2759.5 ± 0.9 Ma, which along with geochemical comparisons, places the succession within the 2760–2735 Ma Greensleeves Formation of the Polelle Group of the Murchison Supergroup. Geochemical and geochronological evidence link the coherent rhyodacite sills to the Peter Well Granodiorite pluton ~2 km to the W, which acted as the heat engine driving hydrothermal circulation during VMS mineralisation. This study highlights the importance of both: detailed physical volcanological studies from which an accurate assessment of timing relationships, particularly the possibility of intrusions dismembering ore horizons, can be made; and identifying synvolcanic plutons and other similar suites, for VMS exploration targets in the Youanmi Terrane and worldwide.

Weight and weight change following breast cancer : evidence from a prospective, population-based, breast cancer cohort study

Background: While weight gain following breast cancer is considered common, results supporting these findings are dated. This work describes changes in body weight following breast cancer over 72 months, compares weight with normative data and explores whether weight changes over time are associated with personal, diagnostic, treatment or behavioral characteristics. Methods: A population-based sample of 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage invasive breast cancer was assessed prospectively at six, 12, 18 and 72 months post-surgery. Weight was clinically measured and linear mixed models were used to explore associations between weight and participant characteristics (collected via self-administered questionnaire). Those with BMI changes of one or more units were considered to have experienced clinically significant changes in weight. Results: More than half (57%) of participants were overweight or obese at 6 months post-surgery, and by 72 months post-surgery 68% of women were overweight or obese. Among those who gained more weight than age-matched norms, clinically significant weight gain between 6 and 18 months and 6 and 72 months post-surgery was observed in 24% and 39% of participants, respectively (median [range] weight gain: 3.9kg [2.0-11.3kg] and 5.2kg [0.6-28.7], respectively). Clinically-significant weight losses were observed in up to 24% of the sample (median [range] weight loss between 6 and 72 months post-surgery: -6.4kg [-1.9--24.6kg]). More extensive lymph node removal, being treated on the non-dominant side, receiving radiation therapy and lower physical activity levels at 6 months was associated with higher body weights post-breast cancer (group differences >3kg; all p<0.05). Conclusions: While average weight gain among breast cancer survivors in the long-term is small, subgroups of women experience greater gains linked with adverse health and above that experienced by age-matched counterparts. Weight change post-breast cancer is a contemporary public health issue and the integration of healthy weight education and support into standard breast cancer care has potential to significantly improve the length and quality of cancer survivorship.

Open problem: Shifting experts on easy data

A number of online algorithms have been developed that have small additional loss (regret) compared to the best “shifting expert”. In this model, there is a set of experts and the comparator is the best partition of the trial sequence into a small number of segments, where the expert of smallest loss is chosen in each segment. The regret is typically defined for worst-case data / loss sequences. There has been a recent surge of interest in online algorithms that combine good worst-case guarantees with much improved performance on easy data. A practically relevant class of easy data is the case when the loss of each expert is iid and the best and second best experts have a gap between their mean loss. In the full information setting, the FlipFlop algorithm by De Rooij et al. (2014) combines the best of the iid optimal Follow-The-Leader (FL) and the worst-case-safe Hedge algorithms, whereas in the bandit information case SAO by Bubeck and Slivkins (2012) competes with the iid optimal UCB and the worst-case-safe EXP3. We ask the same question for the shifting expert problem. First, we ask what are the simple and efficient algorithms for the shifting experts problem when the loss sequence in each segment is iid with respect to a fixed but unknown distribution. Second, we ask how to efficiently unite the performance of such algorithms on easy data with worst-case robustness. A particular intriguing open problem is the case when the comparator shifts within a small subset of experts from a large set under the assumption that the losses in each segment are iid.

Optimizing preventative maintenance strategies for linear assets

Linear assets are engineering infrastructure, such as pipelines, railway lines, and electricity cables, which span long distances and can be divided into different segments. Optimal management of such assets is critical for asset owners as they normally involve significant capital investment. Currently, Time Based Preventive Maintenance (TBPM) strategies are commonly used in industry to improve the reliability of such assets, as they are easy to implement compared with reliability or risk-based preventive maintenance strategies. Linear assets are normally of large scale and thus their preventive maintenance is costly. Their owners and maintainers are always seeking to optimize their TBPM outcomes in terms of minimizing total expected costs over a long term involving multiple maintenance cycles. These costs include repair costs, preventive maintenance costs, and production losses. A TBPM strategy defines when Preventive Maintenance (PM) starts, how frequently the PM is conducted and which segments of a linear asset are operated on in each PM action. A number of factors such as required minimal mission time, customer satisfaction, human resources, and acceptable risk levels need to be considered when planning such a strategy. However, in current practice, TBPM decisions are often made based on decision makers’ expertise or industrial historical practice, and lack a systematic analysis of the effects of these factors. To address this issue, here we investigate the characteristics of TBPM of linear assets, and develop an effective multiple criteria decision making approach for determining an optimal TBPM strategy. We develop a recursive optimization equation which makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different maintenance options for linear assets, such as the best partitioning of the asset into segments and the maintenance cost per segment.

Love hurts: The costly reality of online romance fraud

Online dating and romance scams continue to lure in Australians with figures this week showing people have lost more than A$23 million this year alone, with average individual losses at A$21,000 – three times higher than other types of fraud. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) set up the Scam Disruption Project in August to help target those it believes have been caught in such scams. Over three months it sent 1,500 letters to potential victims in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. The figures released this week show that 50 people have been scammed, losing a total A$1.7 million – that’s an average of A$34,000 per victim. Almost three quarters of the scams were dating and romance related, which saw it evolve into the number one category of fraud victimisation. Romance scams continue to pose a problem – despite the efforts of the police and ACCC – so why is it that people continue to fall for them?

How to tackle cybercrime before people even know they're a victim

An estimated A$75,000 is lost by Australians everyday to online fraud, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Given that this is based on reported crime, the real figure is likely to be much higher. It is well known that fraud, particularly online fraud, has a very low reporting rate. This also doesn’t even begin to encompass non-financial costs to victims. The real cost is likely to be much, much higher. There are many challenges to policing this type of crime, and victims who send money to overseas jurisdictions make it even harder, as does the likelihood of offenders creating false identities or simply stealing legitimate ones. But despite these challenges police have started to do something to prevent the impact and losses of online fraud. By accessing financial intelligence, police are able to identify individuals who are sending money to known high-risk countries for fraud. They then notify these people with their suspicions that they may be involved in fraud. In many cases the people don’t even know they may be victims or involved in online fraud.