Theory and practice of automotive modal lock-in – an Indonesian case

This thesis examines the question why the automotive mode and the large technological system it creates, continues to dominate urban transport systems despite the availability of more cost-efficient alternatives. A number of theoretical insights are developed into the way these losses evolve from path dependent growth, and lead to market failure and lock-in. The important role of asymmetries of influence is highlighted. A survey of commuters in Jakarta Indonesia is used to provide a measure of transport modal lock-in (TML) in a developing country conurbation. A discrete choice experiment is used to provide evidence for the thesis central hypothesis that in such conurbations there is a high level of commuter awareness of the negative externalities generated by TML which can produce a strong level of support for its reversal. Why TML nevertheless remains a strong and durable feature of the transport system is examined with reference to the role of asymmetries of influence.