412 resultados para Point estimation
Resumo:
This report is the eight deliverable of the Real Time and Predictive Traveller Information project and the third deliverable of the Arterial Travel Time Information sub-project in the Integrated Traveller Information research Domain of the Smart Transport Research Centre. The primary objective of the Arterial Travel Time Information sub-project is to develop algorithms for real-time travel time estimation and prediction models for arterial traffic. Brisbane arterial network is highly equipped with Bluetooth MAC Scanners, which can provide travel time information. Literature is limited with the knowledge on the Bluetooth protocol based data acquisition process and accuracy and reliability of the analysis performed using the data. This report expands the body of knowledge surrounding the use of data from Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS) as a complementary traffic data source. A multi layer simulation model named Traffic and Communication Simulation (TCS) is developed. TCS is utilised to model the theoretical properties of the BMS data and analyse the accuracy and reliability of travel time estimation using the BMS data.
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Long traffic queues on off-ramps significantly compromise the safety and throughput of motorways. Obtaining accurate queue information is crucial for countermeasure strategies. However, it is challenging to estimate traffic queues with locally installed inductive loop detectors. This paper deals with the problem of queue estimation with the interpretation of queuing dynamics and the corresponding time-occupancy distribution over motorway off-ramps. A novel algorithm for real-time queue estimation with two detectors is presented and discussed. Results derived from microscopic traffic simulation validated the effectiveness of the algorithm and revealed some of its useful features: (a) long and intermediate traffic queues could be accurately measured, (b) relatively simple detector input (i.e., time occupancy) was required, and (c) the estimation philosophy was independent with signal timing changes and provided the potential to cooperate with advanced strategies for signal control. Some issues concerning field implementation are also discussed.
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One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.
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This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.
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It has not yet been established whether the spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) within a microscale environment can have an effect on exposure estimation results. In general, the degree of spatial variation within microscale environments remains unclear, since previous studies have only focused on spatial variation within macroscale environments. The aims of this study were to determine the spatial variation of PNC within microscale school environments, in order to assess the importance of the number of monitoring sites on exposure estimation. Furthermore, this paper aims to identify which parameters have the largest influence on spatial variation, as well as the relationship between those parameters and spatial variation. Air quality measurements were conducted for two consecutive weeks at each of the 25 schools across Brisbane, Australia. PNC was measured at three sites within the grounds of each school, along with the measurement of meteorological and several other air quality parameters. Traffic density was recorded for the busiest road adjacent to the school. Spatial variation at each school was quantified using coefficient of variation (CV). The portion of CV associated with instrument uncertainty was found to be 0.3 and therefore, CV was corrected so that only non-instrument uncertainty was analysed in the data. The median corrected CV (CVc) ranged from 0 to 0.35 across the schools, with 12 schools found to exhibit spatial variation. The study determined the number of required monitoring sites at schools with spatial variability and tested the deviation in exposure estimation arising from using only a single site. Nine schools required two measurement sites and three schools required three sites. Overall, the deviation in exposure estimation from using only one monitoring site was as much as one order of magnitude. The study also tested the association of spatial variation with wind speed/direction and traffic density, using partial correlation coefficients to identify sources of variation and non-parametric function estimation to quantify the level of variability. Traffic density and road to school wind direction were found to have a positive effect on CVc, and therefore, also on spatial variation. Wind speed was found to have a decreasing effect on spatial variation when it exceeded a threshold of 1.5 (m/s), while it had no effect below this threshold. Traffic density had a positive effect on spatial variation and its effect increased until it reached a density of 70 vehicles per five minutes, at which point its effect plateaued and did not increase further as a result of increasing traffic density.
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This paper proposes a new method for online secondary path modeling in feedback active noise control (ANC) systems. In practical cases, the secondary path is usually time varying. For these cases, online modeling of secondary path is required to ensure convergence of the system. In literature the secondary path estimation is usually performed offline, prior to online modeling, where in the proposed system there is no need for using offline estimation. The proposed method consists of two steps: a noise controller which is based on an FxLMS algorithm, and a variable step size (VSS) LMS algorithm which is used to adapt the modeling filter with the secondary path. In order to increase performance of the algorithm in a faster convergence and accurate performance, we stop the VSS-LMS algorithm at the optimum point. The results of computer simulation shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed method.
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In many applications of active noise control (ANC), an online secondary path modelling method using a white noise as a training signal is required to ensure convergence of the system. The modelling accuracy and the convergence rate increase when a white noise with larger variance is used, however larger the variance increases the residual noise, which decreases performance of the system. The proposed algorithm uses the advantages of the white noise with larger variance to model the secondary path, but the injection is stopped at the optimum point to increase performance of the system. In this approach, instead of continuous injection of the white noise, a sudden change in secondary path during the operation makes the algorithm to reactivate injection of the white noise to adjust the secondary path estimation. Comparative simulation results shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed method.
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Objective: To determine the impact of a free-choice diet on nutritional intake and body condition of feral horses. Animals: Cadavers of 41 feral horses from 5 Australian locations. Procedures: Body condition score (BCS) was determined (scale of 1 to 9), and the stomach was removed from horses during postmortem examination. Stomach contents were analyzed for nutritional variables and macroelement and microelement concentrations. Data were compared among the locations and also compared with recommended daily intakes for horses. Results: Mean BCS varied by location; all horses were judged to be moderately thin. The BCS for males was 1 to 3 points higher than that of females. Amount of protein in the stomach contents varied from 4.3% to 14.9% and was significantly associated with BCS. Amounts of water-soluble carbohydrate and ethanol-soluble carbohydrate in stomach contents of feral horses from all 5 locations were higher than those expected for horses eating high-quality forage. Some macroelement and microelement concentrations were grossly excessive, whereas others were grossly deficient. There was no evidence of ill health among the horses. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: Results suggested that the diet for several populations of feral horses in Australia appeared less than optimal. However, neither low BCS nor trace mineral deficiency appeared to affect survival of the horses. Additional studies on food sources in these regions, including analysis of water-soluble carbohydrate, ethanol-soluble carbohydrate, and mineral concentrations, are warranted to determine the provenance of such rich sources of nutrients. Determination of the optimal diet for horses may need revision.
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This work experimentally examines the performance benefits of a regional CORS network to the GPS orbit and clock solutions for supporting real-time Precise Point Positioning (PPP). The regionally enhanced GPS precise orbit solutions are derived from a global evenly distributed CORS network added with a densely distributed network in Australia and New Zealand. A series of computational schemes for different network configurations are adopted in the GAMIT-GLOBK and PANDA data processing. The precise GPS orbit results show that the regionally enhanced solutions achieve the overall orbit improvements with respect to the solutions derived from the global network only. Additionally, the orbital differences over GPS satellite arcs that are visible by any of the five Australia-wide CORS stations show a higher percentage of overall improvements compared to the satellite arcs that are not visible from these stations. The regional GPS clock and Uncalibrated Phase Delay (UPD) products are derived using the PANDA real time processing module from Australian CORS networks of 35 and 79 stations respectively. Analysis of PANDA kinematic PPP and kinematic PPP-AR solutions show certain overall improvements in the positioning performance from a denser network configuration after solution convergence. However, the clock and UPD enhancement on kinematic PPP solutions is marginal. It is suggested that other factors, such as effects of ionosphere, incorrectly fixed ambiguities, may be the more dominating, deserving further research attentions.
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In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.
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To ensure better concrete quality and long-term durability, there has been an increasing focus in recent years on the development of test methods for quality control of concrete. This paper presents a study to evaluate the effect of water accessible porosity and oven-dry unit weight on the resistance of concrete to chloride-ion penetration. Based on the experimental results and regression analyses, empirical relationships of the charge passed (ASTM C 1202) and chloride migration coefficient (NT Build 492) versus the water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight of the concrete are established. Using basic physical properties of water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight which can be easily determined, total charge passed and migration coefficient of the concrete can be estimated for quality control and for estimating durability of concrete.
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This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.
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This thesis consists of the novel Brolga and an exegesis examining in what ways the ideas of katabasis and deterritorialisation inform an understanding of descent narratives in contemporary Australian outback fiction. When writing the creative piece, it was observed that Joseph Campbell’s Hero’s Journey was an imprecise model for my manuscript and indeed for many of the contemporary novels I had read written in similar outback settings. On analysis a better fit lies in the idea of a heroic journey from which there is no clear return from the underworld. This narrative form is defined in this thesis as a katabatic narrative. To unpack this narrative trope, the inverse of territoriality, deterritorialisation, is used as a lens to examine the complex thematic and symbolic resonances of the outback in both Brolga and analogous works of contemporary outback fiction.
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Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.
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This paper presents practical vision-based collision avoidance for objects approximating a single point feature. Using a spherical camera model, a visual predictive control scheme guides the aircraft around the object along a conical spiral trajectory. Visibility, state and control constraints are considered explicitly in the controller design by combining image and vehicle dynamics in the process model, and solving the nonlinear optimization problem over the resulting state space. Importantly, range is not required. Instead, the principles of conical spiral motion are used to design an objective function that simultaneously guides the aircraft along the avoidance trajectory, whilst providing an indication of the appropriate point to stop the spiral behaviour. Our approach is aimed at providing a potential solution to the See and Avoid problem for unmanned aircraft and is demonstrated through a series.