The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia

Temperature is an important determinant of health. A better knowledge of how temperature affects population health is important not only to the scientific community, but also to the decision-makers who develop and implement early warning systems and intervention strategies to mitigate the health effects of extreme temperatures. The temperature–health relationship is also of growing interest as climate change is projected to shift the overall temperature distribution higher. Previous studies have examined the relative risks of temperature-related mortality, but the absolute measure of years of life lost is also useful as it combines the number of deaths with life expectancy. Here we use years of life lost to provide a novel measure of the impact of temperature on mortality in Brisbane, Australia. We also project the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. We show that the association between temperature and years of life lost is U-shaped, with increased years of life lost for cold and hot temperatures. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 �C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. This study highlights that public health adaptation to climate change is necessary.

Numerical and experimental studies of cold-formed steel floor systems under standard fire conditions

Light gauge cold-formed steel frame (LSF) structures are increasingly used in industrial, commercial and residential buildings because of their non-combustibility, dimensional stability, and ease of installation. A floor-ceiling system is an example of its applications. LSF floor-ceiling systems must be designed to serve as fire compartment boundaries and provide adequate fire resistance. Fire rated floor-ceiling assemblies formed with new materials and construction methodologies have been increasingly used in buildings. However, limited research has been undertaken in the past and hence a thorough understanding of their fire resistance behaviour is not available. Recently a new composite panel in which an external insulation layer is used between two plasterboards has been developed at QUT to provide a higher fire rating to LSF floors under standard fire conditions. But its increased fire rating could not be determined using the currently available design methods. Research on LSF floor systems under fire conditions is relatively recent and the behaviour of floor joists and other components in the systems is not fully understood. The present design methods thus require the use of expensive fire protection materials to protect them from excessive heat increase during a fire. This leads to uneconomical and conservative designs. Fire rating of these floor systems is provided simply by adding more plasterboard sheets to the steel joists and such an approach is totally inefficient. Hence a detailed fire research study was undertaken into the structural and thermal performance of LSF floor systems including those protected by the new composite panel system using full scale fire tests and extensive numerical studies. Experimental study included both the conventional and the new steel floor-ceiling systems under structural and fire loads using a gas furnace designed to deliver heat in accordance with the standard time- temperature curve in AS 1530.4 (SA, 2005). Fire tests included the behavioural and deflection characteristics of LSF floor joists until failure as well as related time-temperature measurements across the section and along the length of all the specimens. Full scale fire tests have shown that the structural and thermal performance of externally insulated LSF floor system was superior than traditional LSF floors with or without cavity insulation. Therefore this research recommends the use of the new composite panel system for cold-formed LSF floor-ceiling systems. The numerical analyses of LSF floor joists were undertaken using the finite element program ABAQUS based on the measured time-temperature profiles obtained from fire tests under both steady state and transient state conditions. Mechanical properties at elevated temperatures were considered based on the equations proposed by Dolamune Kankanamge and Mahendran (2011). Finite element models were calibrated using the full scale test results and used to further provide a detailed understanding of the structural fire behaviour of the LSF floor-ceiling systems. The models also confirmed the superior performance of the new composite panel system. The validated model was then used in a detailed parametric study. Fire tests and the numerical studies showed that plasterboards provided sufficient lateral restraint to LSF floor joists until their failure. Hence only the section moment capacity of LSF floor joists subjected to local buckling effects was considered in this research. To predict the section moment capacity at elevated temperatures, the effective section modulus of joists at ambient temperature is generally considered adequate. However, this research has shown that it leads to considerable over- estimation of the local buckling capacity of joist subject to non-uniform temperature distributions under fire conditions. Therefore new simplified fire design rules were proposed for LSF floor joist to determine the section moment capacity at elevated temperature based on AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005), NAS (AISI, 2007) and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 (ECS, 2006). The accuracy of the proposed fire design rules was verified with finite element analysis results. A spread sheet based design tool was also developed based on these design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time, moment capacity versus time and temperature for various LSF floor configurations. Idealised time-temperature profiles of LSF floor joists were developed based on fire test measurements. They were used in the detailed parametric study to fully understand the structural and fire behaviour of LSF floor panels. Simple design rules were also proposed to predict both critical average joist temperatures and failure times (fire rating) of LSF floor systems with various floor configurations and structural parameters under any given load ratio. Findings from this research have led to a comprehensive understanding of the structural and fire behaviour of LSF floor systems including those protected by the new composite panel, and simple design methods. These design rules were proposed within the guidelines of the Australian/New Zealand, American and European cold- formed steel structures standard codes of practice. These may also lead to further improvements to fire resistance through suitable modifications to the current composite panel system.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

Inherent errors in pollutant build-up estimation in considering urban land use as a lumped parameter

Stormwater quality modelling results is subject to uncertainty. The variability of input parameters is an important source of overall model error. An in-depth understanding of the variability associated with input parameters can provide knowledge on the uncertainty associated with these parameters and consequently assist in uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models and the decision making based on modelling outcomes. This paper discusses the outcomes of a research study undertaken to analyse the variability related to pollutant build-up parameters in stormwater quality modelling. The study was based on the analysis of pollutant build-up samples collected from 12 road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary appreciably even within the same land use. Therefore, using land use as a lumped parameter would contribute significant uncertainties in stormwater quality modelling. Additionally, it was also found that the variability in pollutant build-up can also be significant depending on the pollutant type. This underlines the importance of taking into account specific land use characteristics and targeted pollutant species when undertaking uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models or in interpreting the modelling outcomes.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Is diurnal temperature range a risk factor for childhood diarrhea?

Background Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009. Results There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range. Conclusion Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for TIA

Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment

A framework for life cycle cost estimation of a product family at the early stage of product development

A cost estimation method is required to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development in order to evaluate the product family design. There are difficulties with existing cost estimation techniques in estimating the life cycle cost for a product family at the early stage of product development. This paper proposes a framework that combines a knowledge based system and an activity based costing techniques in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development. The inputs of the framework are the product family structure and its sub function. The output of the framework is the life cycle cost of a product family that consists of all costs at each product family level and the costs of each product life cycle stage. The proposed framework provides a life cycle cost estimation tool for a product family at the early stage of product development using high level information as its input. The framework makes it possible to estimate the life cycle cost of various product family that use any types of product structure. It provides detailed information related to the activity and resource costs of both parts and products that can assist the designer in analyzing the cost of the product family design. In addition, it can reduce the required amount of information and time to construct the cost estimation system.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Muscle, skin and core temperature after −110°C cold air and 8°C water treatment

The aim of this investigation was to elucidate the reductions in muscle, skin and core temperature following exposure to −110°C whole body cryotherapy (WBC), and compare these to 8°C cold water immersion (CWI). Twenty active male subjects were randomly assigned to a 4-min exposure of WBC or CWI. A minimum of 7 days later subjects were exposed to the other treatment. Muscle temperature in the right vastus lateralis (n = 10); thigh skin (average, maximum and minimum) and rectal temperature (n = 10) were recorded before and 60 min after treatment. The greatest reduction (P<0.05) in muscle (mean ± SD; 1 cm: WBC, 1.6±1.2°C; CWI, 2.0±1.0°C; 2 cm: WBC, 1.2±0.7°C; CWI, 1.7±0.9°C; 3 cm: WBC, 1.6±0.6°C; CWI, 1.7±0.5°C) and rectal temperature (WBC, 0.3±0.2°C; CWI, 0.4±0.2°C) were observed 60 min after treatment. The largest reductions in average (WBC, 12.1±1.0°C; CWI, 8.4±0.7°C), minimum (WBC, 13.2±1.4°C; CWI, 8.7±0.7°C) and maximum (WBC, 8.8±2.0°C; CWI, 7.2±1.9°C) skin temperature occurred immediately after both CWI and WBC (P<0.05). Skin temperature was significantly lower (P<0.05) immediately after WBC compared to CWI. The present study demonstrates that a single WBC exposure decreases muscle and core temperature to a similar level of those experienced after CWI. Although both treatments significantly reduced skin temperature, WBC elicited a greater decrease compared to CWI. These data may provide information to clinicians and researchers attempting to optimise WBC and CWI protocols in a clinical or sporting setting.

Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.