Inherent errors in pollutant build-up estimation in considering urban land use as a lumped parameter

Stormwater quality modelling results is subject to uncertainty. The variability of input parameters is an important source of overall model error. An in-depth understanding of the variability associated with input parameters can provide knowledge on the uncertainty associated with these parameters and consequently assist in uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models and the decision making based on modelling outcomes. This paper discusses the outcomes of a research study undertaken to analyse the variability related to pollutant build-up parameters in stormwater quality modelling. The study was based on the analysis of pollutant build-up samples collected from 12 road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary appreciably even within the same land use. Therefore, using land use as a lumped parameter would contribute significant uncertainties in stormwater quality modelling. Additionally, it was also found that the variability in pollutant build-up can also be significant depending on the pollutant type. This underlines the importance of taking into account specific land use characteristics and targeted pollutant species when undertaking uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models or in interpreting the modelling outcomes.