Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Corneal nerve structure and function as markers of diabetic neuropathy

Diabetic neuropathy is a significant clinical problem that currently has no effective therapy, and in advanced cases, leads to foot ulceration and lower limb amputation. The accurate detection, characterisation and quantification of this condition are important in order to define at-risk patients, anticipate deterioration, monitor progression and assess new therapies. This thesis evaluates novel corneal methods of assessing diabetic neuropathy. Over the past several years two new non-invasive corneal markers have emerged, and in cross-sectional studies have demonstrated their ability to stratify the severity of this disease. Corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) allows quantification of corneal nerve parameters and non-contact corneal aesthesiometry (NCCA), the presumed functional correlate of corneal structure, assesses the sensitivity of the cornea. Both these techniques are quick to perform, produce little or no discomfort for the patient, and with automatic analysis paradigms developed, are suitable for clinical settings. Each has advantages and disadvantages over established techniques for assessing diabetic neuropathy. New information is presented regarding measurement bias of CCM images, and a unique sampling paradigm and associated accuracy determination method of combinations is described. A novel high-speed corneal nerve mapping procedure has been developed and application of this procedure in individuals with neuropathy has revealed regions of sub-basal nerve plexus that dictate further evaluation, as they appear to show earlier signs of damage than the central region of the cornea that has to date been examined. The discriminative capacity of corneal sensitivity measured by NCCA is revealed to have reasonable potential as a marker of diabetic neuropathy. Application of these new corneal markers for longitudinal evaluation of diabetic neuropathy has the potential to reduce dependence on more invasive, costly, and time-consuming assessments, such as skin biopsy.

On the oscillatory behavior of transient Rayleigh Benard convection of air for 2D channel flow at moderate Rayleigh numbers

Unsteady numerical simulation of Rayleigh Benard convection heat transfer from a 2D channel is performed. The oscillatory behavior is attributed to recirculation of ascending and descending flows towards the core of the channel producing organized rolled motions. Variation of the parameters such as Reynolds number, channel outlet flow area and inclination of the channel are considered. Increasing Reynolds number (for a fixed Rayleigh number), delays the generation of vortices. The reduction in the outflow area leads to the later and the less vortex generation. As the time progresses, more vortices are generated, but the reinforced mean velocity does not let the eddies to enter the core of the channel. Therefore, they attach to the wall and reduce the heat transfer area. The inclination of the channel (both positive and negative) induces the generated vortices to get closer to each other and make an enlarged vortex.

Evidence for carbonate platform failure during rapid sea-level rise; ca 14 000 year old bioclastic flow deposits in the Lesser Antilles

Bioclastic flow deposits offshore from the Soufrie`re Hills volcano on Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles were deposited by the largest volume sediment flows near this active volcano in the last 26 kyr. The volume of these deposits exceeds that of the largest historic volcanic dome collapse in the world, which occurred on Montserrat in 2003. These flows were most probably generated by a large submarine slope failure of the carbonate shelf comprising the south west flank of Antigua or the east flank of Redonda; adjacent islands that are not volcanically active. The bioclastic flow deposits are relatively coarse-grained and either ungraded or poorly graded, and were deposited by non cohesive debris flow and high density turbidity currents. The bioclastic deposit often comprises multiple sub-units that cannot be correlated between core sites; some located just 2 km apart. Multiple sub-units in the bioclastic deposit result from either flow reflection, stacking of multiple debris flow lobes, and/or multi-stage collapse of the initial landslide. This study provides unusually precise constraints on the age of this mass flow event that occurred at ca 14 ka. Few large submarine landslides have been well dated, but the slope failures that have been dated are commonly associated with periods of rapid sea-level change.

Anatomy of a submarine pyroclastic flow and associated turbidity current : July 2003 dome collapse, Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

The 12 to 13 July 2003 andesite lava dome collapse at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, provides the first opportunity to document comprehensively both the sub-aerial and submarine sequence of events for an eruption. Numerous pyroclastic flows entered the ocean during the collapse, depositing approximately 90% of the total material into the submarine environment. During peak collapse conditions, as the main flow penetrated the air–ocean interface, phreatic explosions were observed and a surge cloud decoupled from the main flow body to travel 2 to 3 km over the ocean surface before settling. The bulk of the flow was submerged and rapidly mixed with sea water forming a water-saturated mass flow. Efficient sorting and physical differentiation occurred within the flow before initial deposition at 500 m water depth. The coarsest components (∼60% of the total volume) were deposited proximally from a dense granular flow, while the finer components (∼40%) were efficiently elutriated into the overlying part of the flow, which evolved into a far-reaching turbidity current.

An authorization framework using building information models

A building information model (BIM) is an electronic repository of structured, three-dimensional data that captures both the physical and dynamic functional characteristics of a facility. In addition to its more traditional function as a tool to aid design and construction, a BIM can be used throughout the life cycle of a facility, functioning as a living database that places resources contained within the building in their spatial and temporal context. Through its comprehension of spatial relationships, a BIM can meaningfully represent and integrate previously isolated control and management systems and processes, and thereby provide a more intuitive interface to users. By placing processes in a spatial context, decision-making can be improved, with positive flow-on effects for security and efficiency. In this article, we systematically analyse the authorization requirements involved in the use of BIMs. We introduce the concept of using a BIM as a graphical tool to support spatial access control configuration and management (including physical access control). We also consider authorization requirements for regulating access to the structured data that exists within a BIM as well as to external systems and data repositories that can be accessed via the BIM interface. With a view to addressing these requirements we present a survey of relevant spatiotemporal access control models, focusing on features applicable to BIMs and highlighting capability gaps. Finally, we present a conceptual authorization framework that utilizes BIMs.

Modelling the flow of cane constituents in the milling process

A model has been developed to track the flow of cane constituents through the milling process. While previous models have tracked the flow of fibre, brix and water through the process, this model tracks the soluble and insoluble solid cane components using modelling theory and experiment data, assisting in further understanding the flow of constituents into mixed juice and final bagasse. The work provided an opportunity to understand the factors which affect the distribution of the cane constituents in juice and bagasse. Application of the model should lead to improvements in the overall performance of the milling train.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Human proximal tubule epithelial cells modulate autologous dendritic cell function

Background We have previously demonstrated that human kidney proximal tubule epithelial cells (PTEC) are able to modulate autologous T and B lymphocyte responses. It is well established that dendritic cells (DC) are responsible for the initiation and direction of adaptive immune responses and that these cells occur in the renal interstitium in close apposition to PTEC under inflammatory disease settings. However, there is no information regarding the interaction of PTEC with DC in an autologous human context. Methods Human monocytes were differentiated into monocyte-derived DC (MoDC) in the absence or presence of primary autologous activated PTEC and matured with polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid [poly(I:C)], while purified, pre-formed myeloid blood DC (CD1c+ BDC) were cultured with autologous activated PTEC in the absence or presence of poly(I:C) stimulation. DC responses were monitored by surface antigen expression, cytokine secretion, antigen uptake capacity and allogeneic T-cell-stimulatory ability. Results The presence of autologous activated PTEC inhibited the differentiation of monocytes to MoDC. Furthermore, MoDC differentiated in the presence of PTEC displayed an immature surface phenotype, efficient phagocytic capacity and, upon poly(I:C) stimulation, secreted low levels of pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL)-12p70, high levels of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 and induced weak Th1 responses. Similarly, pre-formed CD1c+ BDC matured in the presence of PTEC exhibited an immature tolerogenic surface phenotype, strong endocytic and phagocytic ability and stimulated significantly attenuated T-cell proliferative responses. Conclusions Our data suggest that activated PTEC regulate human autologous immunity via complex interactions with DC. The ability of PTEC to modulate autologous DC function has important implications for the dampening of pro-inflammatory immune responses within the tubulointerstitium in renal injuries. Further dissection of the mechanisms of PTEC modulation of autologous immune responses may offer targets for therapeutic intervention in renal medicine.

Delta opioid-receptor function in the dorsal striatum plays a role in high levels of ethanol consumption in rats

Binge-like patterns of excessive drinking during young adulthood increase the propensity for alcohol use disorders (AUDs) later in adult life; however, the mechanisms that drive this are not completely understood. Previous studies showed that the δ-opioid peptide receptor (DOP-R) is dynamically regulated by exposure to ethanol and that the DOP-R plays a role in ethanol-mediated behaviors. The aim of this study was to determine the role of the DOP-R in high ethanol consumption from young adulthood through to late adulthood by measuring DOP-R-mediated [(35)S]GTPγS binding in brain membranes and DOP-R-mediated analgesia using a rat model of high ethanol consumption in Long Evans rats. We show that DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum and DOP-R-mediated analgesia changes during development, being highest during early adulthood and reduced in late adulthood. Intermittent access to ethanol but not continuous ethanol or water from young adulthood leads to an increase in DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum and DOP-R-mediated analgesia into late adulthood. Multiple microinfusions of naltrindole into the dorsal striatum or multiple systemic administration of naltrindole reduces ethanol consumption, and following termination of treatment, DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum is attenuated. These findings suggest that DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum plays a role in high levels of ethanol consumption and suggest that targeting the DOP-R is an alternative strategy for the treatment of AUDs.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.