A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Parametric differences between a real-world distributed denial-of-service attack and a flash event

Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks continue to be one of the most pernicious threats to the delivery of services over the Internet. Not only are DDoS attacks present in many guises, they are also continuously evolving as new vulnerabilities are exploited. Hence accurate detection of these attacks still remains a challenging problem and a necessity for ensuring high-end network security. An intrinsic challenge in addressing this problem is to effectively distinguish these Denial-of-Service attacks from similar looking Flash Events (FEs) created by legitimate clients. A considerable overlap between the general characteristics of FEs and DDoS attacks makes it difficult to precisely separate these two classes of Internet activity. In this paper we propose parameters which can be used to explicitly distinguish FEs from DDoS attacks and analyse two real-world publicly available datasets to validate our proposal. Our analysis shows that even though FEs appear very similar to DDoS attacks, there are several subtle dissimilarities which can be exploited to separate these two classes of events.

Comparison between electrically evoked and voluntary isometric contractions for biceps brachii muscle oxidative metabolism using near-infrared spectroscopy

This study compared voluntary (VOL) and electrically evoked isometric contractions by muscle stimulation (EMS) for changes in biceps brachii muscle oxygenation (tissue oxygenation index, ΔTOI) and total haemoglobin concentration (ΔtHb = oxygenated haemoglobin + deoxygenated haemoglobin) determined by near-infrared spectroscopy. Twelve men performed EMS with one arm followed 24 h later by VOL with the contralateral arm, consisting of 30 repeated (1-s contraction, 1-s relaxation) isometric contractions at 30% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) for the first 60 s, and maximal intensity contractions thereafter (MVC for VOL and maximal tolerable current at 30 Hz for EMS) until MVC decreased ∼30% of pre-exercise MVC. During the 30 contractions at 30% MVC, ΔTOI decrease was significantly (P < 0.05) greater and ∼tHb was significantly (P < 0.05) lower for EMS than VOL, suggesting that the metabolic demand for oxygen in EMS is greater than VOL at the same torque level. However, during maximal intensity contractions, although EMS torque (∼40% of VOL) was significantly (P < 0.05) lower than VOL, ΔTOI was similar and ΔtHb was significantly (P < 0.05) lower for EMS than VOL towards the end, without significant differences between the two sessions in the recovery period. It is concluded that the oxygen demand of the activated biceps brachii muscle in EMS is comparable to VOL at maximal intensity. © Springer-Verlag 2009.

A Raman spectroscopic study of the mono-hydrogen phosphate mineral dorfmanite Na2(PO3OH)•2H2O – and in comparison with brushite

Aspects of the molecular structure of the mineral dorfmanite Na2(PO3OH)•2H2O were determined by Raman spectroscopy. The mineral originated from the Kedykverpakhk Mt., Lovozero, Kola Peninsula, Russia. Raman bands are assigned to the hydrogen phosphate units. The intense Raman band at 949 cm-1 and the less intense band at 866 cm-1 are assigned to the PO3 and POH stretching vibrations. Bands at 991, 1066 and 1141 cm-1 are assigned to the ν3 antisymmetric stretching modes. Raman bands at 393, 413 and 448 cm-1 and 514, 541 and 570 cm-1 are attributed to the ν2 and ν4 bending modes of the HPO4 units, respectively. Raman bands at 3373, 3443 and 3492 cm-1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. POH stretching vibrations are identified by bands at 2904, 3080 and 3134 cm-1. Raman spectroscopy has proven very useful for the study of the structure of the mineral dorfmanite.

Dynamic texture reconstruction from sparse codes for unusual event detection in crowded scenes

Unusual event detection in crowded scenes remains challenging because of the diversity of events and noise. In this paper, we present a novel approach for unusual event detection via sparse reconstruction of dynamic textures over an overcomplete basis set, with the dynamic texture described by local binary patterns from three orthogonal planes (LBPTOP). The overcomplete basis set is learnt from the training data where only the normal items observed. In the detection process, given a new observation, we compute the sparse coefficients using the Dantzig Selector algorithm which was proposed in the literature of compressed sensing. Then the reconstruction errors are computed, based on which we detect the abnormal items. Our application can be used to detect both local and global abnormal events. We evaluate our algorithm on UCSD Abnormality Datasets for local anomaly detection, which is shown to outperform current state-of-the-art approaches, and we also get promising results for rapid escape detection using the PETS2009 dataset.

HR practices and challenges in Chinese firms : comparison with Western firms

This research compares Chinese HRM with Western HRM, particularly in the areas of development of HR information systems (HRIS) and HR measurement systems and their relation to HR’s involvement as a strategic partner in firms. The research uses a 3-stage model of HRIS (workforce profiling, business insight, and strategic driver) based on studies of Irmer and Ellerby (2005) and Boudreau and Ramstad (2003) to compare the relative stages of development of Chinese and Western HRM. The quantitative aspect of the study comprises a survey of senior HR practitioners from 171 Chinese firms whose data is compared with data from Irmer and Ellerby’s study of Australian and U.S. HRM (2005) and Lawler et al’s series of studies of U.S firms (1995, 1998, 2001, 2004). The main results of the comparison are that Chinese HRM generally lags behind Western HRM. In particular, Chinese HR professionals allocate less time to strategic activities and their roles are less strategic than those of Western HR professionals. The HR measurement systems of Chinese firms are more limited in function, and the HR information systems of Chinese companies are less automated and integrated. However there is also evidence of a “two speed” HR system in China with a small proportion of firms having highly sophisticated HR systems but with a much larger proportion of Chinese firms than in the West having only the most basic HR information systems. This ‘two speed” system is in part attributable to a split between the relatively advanced HR systems of large State Owned Enterprises and the basic systems that predominate in smaller, growing Local Private firms. The survey study is complemented by a series of interviews with a number of senior Chinese HR practitioners who provide richer insights into their experiences and the challenges they face in contemporary Chinese firms.

Unusual Event Detection in Crowded Scenes Using Bag of LBPs in spatio-temporal patches

Modelling events in densely crowded environments remains challenging, due to the diversity of events and the noise in the scene. We propose a novel approach for anomalous event detection in crowded scenes using dynamic textures described by the Local Binary Patterns from Three Orthogonal Planes (LBP-TOP) descriptor. The scene is divided into spatio-temporal patches where LBP-TOP based dynamic textures are extracted. We apply hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the patches containing unusual events. Our method is an unsupervised approach, and it does not rely on object tracking or background subtraction. We show that our approach outperforms existing state of the art algorithms for anomalous event detection in UCSD dataset.

Comparison of intraocular pressure measurement between rebound, non-contact and Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients

Background: To compare the intraocular pressure readings obtained with the iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer with those measured by Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients. Design: A prospective, cross sectional study was conducted in a private tertiary glaucoma clinic. Participants: 109 (54M:55F) patients including only eyes under medical treatment for glaucoma. Methods: Measurement by Goldmann applanation tonometry, iCare rebound tonometry and 7CR non-contact tonometry. Main Outcome Measures: Intraocular pressure. Results: There were strong correlations between the intraocular pressure measurements obtained with Goldmann and both the rebound and non-contact tonometers (Spearman r values ≥ 0.79, p < 0.001). However, there were small, statistically significant differences between the average readings for each tonometer. For the rebound tonometer, the mean intraocular pressure was slightly higher compared to the Goldmann applanation tonometer in the right eyes (p = 0.02), and similar in the left eyes (p = 0.93) however these differences did not reach statistical significance. The Goldmann correlated measurements from the noncontact tonometer were lower than the average Goldmann reading for both right (p < 0.001) and left (p > 0.01) eyes. The corneal compensated measurements from the non-contact tonometer were significantly higher compared to the other tonometers (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions: The iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer measure IOP in fundamentally different ways to the Goldmann applanation tonometer. The resulting IOP values vary between the instruments and will need to be considered when comparing clinical versus home acquired measurements.

Raman spectroscopy of the multi anion mineral arsentsumebite Pb2Cu(AsO4)(SO4)(OH) and in comparison with tsumebite Pb2Cu(PO4)(SO4)(OH)

The mineral arsentsumebite Pb2Cu(AsO4)(SO4)(OH), a copper arsenate-sulfate hydroxide of the brackebuschite group has been characterised by Raman spectroscopy. The brackebuschite mineral group are a series of monoclinic arsenates, phosphates and vanadates of the general formula A2B(XO4)(OH,H2O), where A may be Ba, Ca, Pb, Sr, while B may be Al, Cu2+,Fe2+, Fe3+, Mn2+, Mn3+, Zn and XO4 may be AsO4, PO4, SO4,VO4. Bands are assigned to the stretching and bending modes of SO42- AsO43- and HOAsO3 units. Raman spectroscopy readily distinguishes between the two minerals arsentsumebite and tsumebite. Raman bands attributed to arsenate are not observed in the Raman spectrum of tsumebite. Phosphate bands found in the Raman spectrum of tsumebite are not found in the Raman spectrum of arsentsumebite. Raman spectroscopy readily distinguishes the two minerals tsumebite and arsentsumebite.

Planning volunteer responses to low-volume mass gatherings: do event characteristics predict patient workload?

INTRODUCTION: Workforce planning for first aid and medical coverage of mass gatherings is hampered by limited research. In particular, the characteristics and likely presentation patterns of low-volume mass gatherings of between several hundred to several thousand people are poorly described in the existing literature. OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to: 1. Describe key patient and event characteristics of medical presentations at a series of mass gatherings, including events smaller than those previously described in the literature; 2. Determine whether event type and event size affect the mean number of patients presenting for treatment per event, and specifically, whether the 1:2,000 deployment rule used by St John Ambulance Australia is appropriate; and 3. Identify factors that are predictive of injury at mass gatherings. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, case-series design was used to examine all cases treated by two Divisions of St John Ambulance (Queensland) in the greater metropolitan Brisbane region over a three-year period (01 January 2002-31 December 2004). Data were obtained from routinely collected patient treatment forms completed by St John officers at the time of treatment. Event-related data (e.g., weather, event size) were obtained from event forms designed for this study. Outcome measures include: total and average number of patient presentations for each event; event type; and event size category. Descriptive analyses were conducted using chi-square tests, and mean presentations per event and event type were investigated using Kruskal-Wallis tests. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables independently associated with injury presentation (compared with non-injury presentations). RESULTS: Over the three-year study period, St John Ambulance officers treated 705 patients over 156 separate events. The mean number of patients who presented with any medical condition at small events (less than or equal to 2,000 attendees) did not differ significantly from that of large (>2,000 attendees) events (4.44 vs. 4.67, F = 0.72, df = 1, 154, p = 0.79). Logistic regression analyses indicated that presentation with an injury compared with non-injury was independently associated with male gender, winter season, and sporting events, even after adjusting for relevant variables. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of low-volume mass gatherings, a similar number of patients sought medical treatment at small (<2,000 patrons) and large (>2,000 patrons) events. This demonstrates that for low-volume mass gatherings, planning based solely on anticipated event size may be flawed, and could lead to inappropriate levels of first-aid coverage. This study also highlights the importance of considering other factors, such as event type and patient characteristics, when determining appropriate first-aid resourcing for low-volume events. Additionally, identification of factors predictive of injury presentations at mass gatherings has the potential to significantly enhance the ability of event coordinators to plan effective prevention strategies and response capability for these events.