Selection procedures for module discovery : exploring evolutionary algorithms for cognitive science

Evolutionary algorithms are playing an increasingly important role as search methods in cognitive science domains. In this study, methodological issues in the use of evolutionary algorithms were investigated via simulations in which procedures were systematically varied to modify the selection pressures on populations of evolving agents. Traditional roulette wheel, tournament, and variations of these selection algorithms were compared on the “needle-in-a-haystack” problem developed by Hinton and Nowlan in their 1987 study of the Baldwin effect. The task is an important one for cognitive science, as it demonstrates the power of learning as a local search technique in smoothing a fitness landscape that lacks gradient information. One aspect that has continued to foster interest in the problem is the observation of residual learning ability in simulated populations even after long periods of time. Effective evolutionary algorithms balance their search effort between broad exploration of the search space and in-depth exploitation of promising solutions already found. Issues discussed include the differential effects of rank and proportional selection, the tradeoff between migration of populations towards good solutions and maintenance of diversity, and the development of measures that illustrate how each selection algorithm affects the search process over generations. We show that both roulette wheel and tournament algorithms can be modified to appropriately balance search between exploration and exploitation, and effectively eliminate residual learning in this problem.

Long-term outcomes following Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit

Aortic root replacement is a complex procedure, though subsequent modifications of the original Bentall procedure have made surgery more reproducible. The study aim was to examine the outcomes of a modified Bentall procedure, using the Medtronic Open PivotTM valved conduit. Whilst short-term data on the conduit and long-term data on the valve itself are available, little is known of the long-term results with the valved conduit. Patients undergoing aortic root replacement between February 1999 and February 2010, using the Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit were identified from the prospectively collected Cardiothoracic Register at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. All patients were followed up echocardiographically and clinically. The primary end-point was death, and a Cox proportional model was used to identify factors associated.with survival. Secondary end-points were valve-related morbidity (as defined by STS guidelines) and postoperative morbidity. Predictors of morbidity were identified using logistic regression. A total of 246 patients (mean age 50 years) was included in the study. The overall mortality was 12%, with actuarial 10-year survival 79% and a 10-year estimate of valve-related death of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.004, 0.07). Preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.004, HR 4.74), urgency of operation (p = 0.038, HR 2.8) and 10% incremental decreases in ejection fraction (p = 0.046, HR 0.69) were predictive of mortality. Survival was also affected by the valve gradients, with a unit increase in peak gradient reducing mortality (p = 0.021, HR 0.93). Valve-related morbidity occurred in 11 patients. Urgent surgery (p <0.001, OR 4.12), aortic dissection (p = 0.015, OR 3.35), calcific aortic stenosis (p = 0.016, OR 2.35) and Marfan syndrome (p 0.009, OR 3.75) were predictive of postoperative morbidity. The reoperation rate was 1.2%. The Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit is a safe and durable option for aortic root replacement, and is associated with low morbidity and 10-year survival of 79%. However, further studies are required to determine the effect of valve gradient on survival.

Modeling and control of a CLC resonant dual active bridge

This paper proposes a linear large signal state-space model for a phase controlled CLC (Capacitor Inductor Capacitor) Resonant Dual Active Bridge (RDAB). The proposed model is useful for fast simulation and for the estimation of state variables under large signal variation. The model is also useful for control design because the slow changing dynamics of the dq variables are relatively easy to control. Simulation results of the proposed model are presented and compared to the simulated circuit model to demonstrate the proposed model's accuracy. This proposed model was used for the design of a Proportional-Integral (PI) controller and it has been implemented in the circuit simulation to show the proposed models usefulness in control design.

Developing and evaluating interventions that are applicable and relevant to inpatients and those who care for them; a multiphase, pragmatic action research approach

Background Randomised controlled trials may be of limited use to evaluate the multidisciplinary and multimodal interventions required to effectively treat complex patients in routine clinical practice; pragmatic action research approaches may provide a suitable alternative. Methods A multiphase, pragmatic, action research based approach was developed to identify and overcome barriers to nutritional care in patients admitted to a metropolitan hospital hip-fracture unit. Results Four sequential action research cycles built upon baseline data including 614 acute hip-fracture inpatients and 30 purposefully sampled clinicians. Reports from Phase I identified barriers to nutrition screening and assessment. Phase II reported post-fracture protein-energy intakes and intake barriers. Phase III built on earlier results; an explanatory mixed-methods study expanded and explored additional barriers and facilitators to nutritional care. Subsequent changes to routine clinical practice were developed and implemented by the treating team between Phase III and IV. These were implemented as a new multidisciplinary, multimodal nutritional model of care. A quasi-experimental controlled, ‘before-and-after’ study was then used to compare the new model of care with an individualised nutritional care model. Engagement of the multidisciplinary team in a multiphase, pragmatic action research intervention doubled energy and protein intakes, tripled return home discharge rates, and effected a 75% reduction in nutritional deterioration during admission in a reflective cohort of hip-fracture inpatients. Conclusions This approach allowed research to be conducted as part of routine clinical practice, captured a more representative patient cohort than previously reported studies, and facilitated exploration of barriers and engagement of the multidisciplinary healthcare workers to identify and implement practical solutions. This study demonstrates substantially different findings to those previously reported, and is the first to demonstrate that multidisciplinary, multimodal nutrition care reduces intake barriers, delivers a higher proportional increase in protein and energy intake compared with baseline than other published intervention studies, and improves patient outcomes when compared with individualised nutrition care. The findings are considered highly relevant to clinical practice and have high translation validity. The authors strongly encourage the development of similar study designs to investigate complex health problems in elderly, multi-morbid patient populations as a way to evaluate and change clinical practice.

Further development of discrete computational techniques for calculation of restricted diffusion propagators in porous media

Magnetic resonance is a well-established tool for structural characterisation of porous media. Features of pore-space morphology can be inferred from NMR diffusion-diffraction plots or the time-dependence of the apparent diffusion coefficient. Diffusion NMR signal attenuation can be computed from the restricted diffusion propagator, which describes the distribution of diffusing particles for a given starting position and diffusion time. We present two techniques for efficient evaluation of restricted diffusion propagators for use in NMR porous-media characterisation. The first is the Lattice Path Count (LPC). Its physical essence is that the restricted diffusion propagator connecting points A and B in time t is proportional to the number of distinct length-t paths from A to B. By using a discrete lattice, the number of such paths can be counted exactly. The second technique is the Markov transition matrix (MTM). The matrix represents the probabilities of jumps between every pair of lattice nodes within a single timestep. The propagator for an arbitrary diffusion time can be calculated as the appropriate matrix power. For periodic geometries, the transition matrix needs to be defined only for a single unit cell. This makes MTM ideally suited for periodic systems. Both LPC and MTM are closely related to existing computational techniques: LPC, to combinatorial techniques; and MTM, to the Fokker-Planck master equation. The relationship between LPC, MTM and other computational techniques is briefly discussed in the paper. Both LPC and MTM perform favourably compared to Monte Carlo sampling, yielding highly accurate and almost noiseless restricted diffusion propagators. Initial tests indicate that their computational performance is comparable to that of finite element methods. Both LPC and MTM can be applied to complicated pore-space geometries with no analytic solution. We discuss the new methods in the context of diffusion propagator calculation in porous materials and model biological tissues.

Proactive training system for safe and efficient precast installation

The construction industry is a crucial component of the Hong Kong economy, and the safety and efficiency of workers are two of its main concerns. The current approach to training workers relies primarily on instilling practice and experience in conventional teacher-apprentice settings on and off site. Both have their limitations however, on-site training is very inefficient and interferes with progress on site, while off-site training provides little opportunity to develop the practical skills and awareness needed through hands-on experience. A more effective way is to train workers in safety awareness and efficient working by current novel information technologies. This paper describes a new and innovative prototype system – the Proactive Construction Management System (PCMS) – to train precast installation workers to be highly productive while being fully aware of the hazards involved. PCMS uses Chirp-Spread-Spectrum-based (CSS) real-time location technology and Unity3D-based data visualisation technology to track construction resources (people, equipment, materials, etc.) and provide real-time feedback and post-event visualisation analysis in a training environment. A trial of a precast facade installation on a real site demonstrates the benefits gained by PCMS in comparison with equivalent training using conventional methods. It is concluded that, although the study is based on specific industrial conditions found in Hong Kong construction projects, PCMS may well attract wider interest and use in future.

Towards making informed decisions on selecting promising work zone safety treatments

Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper outlines development of a conceptual framework for making informed decisions about safety treatments by: 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones; 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists; 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and; 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.

Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Response of segmented bored transit tunnels to surface blast

Increasing threat of terrorism highlights the importance of enhancing the resilience of underground tunnels to all hazards. This paper develops, applies and compares the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) and Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques to treat the response of buried tunnels to surface explosions. The results and outcomes of the two techniques were compared, along with results from existing test data. The comparison shows that the ALE technique is a better method for describing the tunnel response for above ground explosion with regards to modeling accuracy and computational efficiency. The ALE technique was then applied to treat the blast response of different types of segmented bored tunnels buried in dry sand. Results indicate that the most used modern ring type segmented tunnels were more flexible for in-plane response, however, they suffered permanent drifts between the rings. Hexagonal segmented tunnels responded with negligible drifts in the longitudinal direction, but the magnitudes of in-plane drifts were large and hence hazardous for the tunnel. Interlocking segmented tunnels suffered from permanent drifts in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. Multi-surface radial joints in both the hexagonal and interlocking segments affected the flexibility of the tunnel in the transverse direction. The findings offer significant new information in the behavior of segmented bored tunnels to guide their future implementation in civil engineering applications.

Emergency pre-hospital disaster response training. What's the state of play?

Study/Objective This study examines the current state of disaster response education for Australian paramedics from a national and international perspective and identifies both potential gaps in content and challenges to the sustainability of knowledge acquired through occasional training. Background As demands for domestic and international disaster response increase, experience in the field has begun to challenge traditional assumptions that response to mass casualty events requires little specialist training. The need for a “streamlined process of safe medical team deployment into disaster regions”1 is generally accepted and, in Australia, the emergence of national humanitarian aid training has begun to respond to this gap. However, calls for a national framework for disaster health education2 haven’t received much traction. Methods A critical analysis of the peer reviewed and grey literature on the core components/competencies and training methods required to prepare Australian paramedics to contribute to effective health disaster response has been conducted. Research from the past 10 years has been examined along with federal and state policy with regard to paramedic disaster education. Results The literature shows that education and training for disaster response is variable and that an evidence based study specifically designed to outline sets of core competencies for Australian health care professionals has never been undertaken. While such competencies in disaster response have been developed for the American paradigm it is suggested that disaster response within the Australian context is somewhat different to that of the US, and therefore a gap in the current knowledge base exists. Conclusion Further research is needed to develop core competencies specific to Australian paramedics in order to standardise teaching in the area of health disaster management. Until this occurs the task of evaluating or creating disaster curricula that adequately prepares and maintains paramedics for an effective all hazards disaster response is seen as largely unattainable.

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

Carbon nanotube-based super nanotubes: Tunable thermal conductivity in three dimensions

Advances in nanomaterials/nanostructures offer the possibility of fabricating multifunctional materials for use in engineering applications. Carbon nanotube (CNT)-based nanostructures are a representative building block for these multifunctional materials. Based on a series of in silico studies, we investigated the possibility of tuning the thermal conductivity of a three-dimensional CNT-based nanostructure: a single-walled CNT-based super-nanotube. The thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes was shown to vary with different connecting carbon rings and super-nanotubes with longer constituent single-walled CNTs and larger diameters had a smaller thermal conductivity. The inverse of the thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes showed a good linear relationship with the inverse of the length. The thermal conductivity was approximately proportional to the inverse of the temperature, but was insensitive to the axial strain as a result of the Poisson ratio. These results provide a fundamental understanding of the thermal conductivity of the super-nanotubes and will guide their future design/fabrication and engineering applications.

Trends in hospital admission for stroke in Calgary

Background Stroke incidence has fallen since 1950. Recent trends suggest that stroke incidence may be stabilizing or increasing. We investigated time trends in stroke occurrence and in-hospital morbidity and mortality in the Calgary Health Region. Methods All patients admitted to hospitals in the Calgary Health Region between 1994 and 2002 with a primary discharge diagnosis code (ICD-9 or ICD-10) of stroke were included. In-hospital strokes were also included. Stroke type, date of admission, age, gender,discharge disposition (died, discharged) and in-hospital complications (pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis) were recorded. Poisson and simple linear regression was used to model time trends of occurrence by stroke type and age-group and to extrapolate future time trends. Results From 1994 to 2002, 11642 stroke events were observed. Of these, 9879 patients (84.8%) were discharged from hospital, 1763 (15.1%) died in hospital, and 591 (5.1%) developed in-hospital complications from pneumonia, pulmonary embolism or deep venous thrombosis. Both in-hospital mortality and complication rates were highest for hemorrhages. Over the period of study, the rate of stroke admission has remained stable. However, total numbers of stroke admission to hospital have faced a significant increase (p=0.012) due to the combination of increases in intracerebral hemorrhage (p=0.021) and ischemic stroke admissions (p=0.011). Sub-arachnoid hemorrhage rates have declined. In-hospital stroke mortality has experienced an overall decline due to a decrease in deaths from ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and sub-arachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusions Although age-adjusted stroke occurrence rates were stable from 1994 to 2002, this is associated with both a sharp increase in the absolute number of stroke admissions and decline in proportional in-hospital mortality. Further research is needed into changes in stroke severity over time to understand the causes of declining in-hospital stroke mortality rates.

Determining reverse salient types and evolutionary dynamics of technology systems with performance disparities

Technological system evolution is marked by the uneven evolution of constituent sub-systems. Subsequently, system evolution is hampered by the resulting state of unevenness, or reverse salience, which results from the presence of the sub-system that delivers the lowest level of performance with respect to other sub-systems, namely, the reverse salient. In this paper, we develop absolute and proportional performance gap measures of reverse salience and, in turn, derive a typology of reverse salients that distinguishes alternative dynamics of change in the evolving system. We subsequently demonstrate the applicability of the measures and the typology through an illustrative empirical study of the PC (personal computer) technological system that functions as a gaming platform. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that patterns of temporal dynamics can be distinguished with the measurement of reverse salience, and that distinct paths of technological system evolution can be identified as different types of reverse salients emerge over time.

Floods and property values: A hedonic property and efficiency analysis

This study investigates the impact floods on property values using the hedonic property price approach and other relevant econometric techniques. The main objectives of this research are to investigate (1) the impact of the release of flood-risk information and the actual floods on property values (2) the temporal behaviour of negative impacts (3) the property submarket behaviour (4) the behaviour of flood affected vs flood non-affected areas and (5) the property market efficiency. The thesis expanded on the existing literature on natural disasters by applying a range of econometric techniques. Findings of this research are useful for policy decision-making which is aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of natural hazards on property markets. The thesis findings also provide a better framework for decision-making in the property insurance market. The methodological improvements that are made in the thesis will be invaluable for analysing the impacts of natural hazards elsewhere.