Under-reporting of road crashes in Pakistan and the role of fate

Objective: Comprehensive, accurate information about road crashes and related trauma is a prerequisite for identification and control of risk factors as well as for identifying faults within the broader road safety system. Quality data and appropriate crash investigation are critical in reducing the road toll that is rapidly growing in much of the developing world, including Pakistan. This qualitative research explored the involvement of social and cultural factors (in particular, fatalism) in risky road use in Pakistan. The findings highlight a significant issue, previously unreported in the road safety literature, namely, the link between fatalistic beliefs and inaccurate reporting of road crashes. Method: Thirty interviews (one-to one) were conducted by the first author with police officers, drivers, policy makers and religious orators in three Pakistani cities. Findings: Evidence emerged of a strong link between fatalism and the under-reporting of road crashes. In many cases, crashes and related road trauma appear to go unreported because a crash is considered to be one’s fate and, therefore, beyond personal control. Fate was also implicated in the practice of reconciliation between parties after a crash without police involvement and the seeking and granting of pardon for a road death. Conclusions: These issues represent additional factors that can contribute to under-reporting of crashes and associated trauma. Together, they highlight complications involved in establishing the true cost of road trauma in a country such as Pakistan and the difficulties faced when attempting to promote scientifically-based road safety information to counteract faith-based beliefs.

Diurnal variation of ocular biometrics under natural and defocused conditions

It is well known that a broad range of ocular anatomical and physiological parameters undergo significant diurnal variation. However, the natural diurnal variations that occur in the length of the human eye (axial length) and their underlying causes have been less well studied. Improvements in optical methods for the measurement of ocular biometrics now allow more precise and comprehensive measurements of axial length to be performed than has previously been possible. Research from animal models also suggests a link between diurnal axial length variations and longer term myopic eye growth, and that retinal image defocus can disrupt these diurnal rhythms in axial length. This research programme has examined the diurnal variations in axial length in young normal eyes, the contributing components and the influence of optical stimuli on these changes. In the first experiment, the normal pattern and consistency of the diurnal variations in axial length were examined at 10 different times (5 measurements each day, at ~ 3-hour intervals from ~ 9 am to ~ 9 pm) over 2 consecutive days on 30 young adult subjects (15 myopes, 15 emmetropes). Additionally, variations in a range of other ocular biometric measurements such as choroidal thickness, intraocular pressure, and other ocular biometrics were also explored as potential factors that may be associated with the observed variations in axial length. To investigate the potential influence of refractive error on diurnal axial length variations, the differences in the magnitude and pattern of diurnal variations in axial length between the myopic and emmetropic subjects were examined. Axial length underwent significant diurnal variation that was consistently observed over the 2 consecutive days of measurements, with the longest axial length typically occurring during the day, and the shortest at night. Significant diurnal variations were also observed in choroidal thickness, IOP and other ocular biometrics (such as central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth and vitreous chamber depth) of the eye. Diurnal variations in vitreous chamber depth, IOP (positive associations) and choroidal thickness (negative association) were all significantly correlated with the diurnal changes in axial length. Choroidal thickness was found to fluctuate approximately in antiphase to the axial length changes, with the average timing of the longest axial length coinciding with the thinnest choroid and vice versa. There were no significant differences in the ocular diurnal variations associated with refractive error. Given that the diurnal changes in axial length could be associated with the changes in the eye’s optical quality, whether the optical quality of the eye also undergoes diurnal variation in the same cohort of young adult myopes and emmetropes over 2 consecutive days was also examined. Significant diurnal variations were observed only in the best sphere refraction (power vector M) and in the spherical aberration of the eye over two consecutive days of testing. The changes in the eyes lower and higher order ocular optics were not significantly associated with the diurnal variations in axial length and the other measured ocular biometric parameters. No significant differences were observed in the magnitude and timing of diurnal variations in lower-order and higher-order optics associated with refractive error. Since the small natural fluctuations in the eye’s optical quality did not appear to be sufficient to influence the natural diurnal fluctuations in ocular biometric parameters, in the next experiment, the influence of monocular myopic defocus (+1.50 DS) upon the normal diurnal variations in axial length and choroidal thickness of young adult emmetropic human subjects (n=13) imposed over a 12 hour period was examined. A series of axial length and choroidal thickness measurements (collected at ~3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm) were obtained over three consecutive days. The natural diurnal rhythms (Day 1, no defocus), diurnal rhythms with monocular myopic defocus (Day 2, +1.50 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, no defocus) were examined. Significant diurnal variations over the course of the day were observed in both axial length and choroidal thickness on each of the three measurement days. The introduction of monocular myopic defocus led to significant reductions in the mean amplitude of diurnal change, and phase shifts in the peak timing of the diurnal rhythms in axial length and choroidal thickness. These defocus induced changes were found to be transient in nature and returned to normal the day following removal of the defocus. To further investigate the influence of optical stimuli on human diurnal rhythms, in the final experiment, the influence of monocular hyperopic defocus on the normal diurnal rhythms in axial length and choroidal thickness was examined in young adult emmetropic subjects (n=15). Similar to the previous experiment, the natural diurnal rhythms (Day 1, no defocus), diurnal rhythms with monocular hyperopic defocus (Day 2, -2.00 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, no defocus) were examined over three consecutive days. Both axial length and choroidal thickness underwent significant diurnal variations on each of the three days. The introduction of monocular hyperopic defocus resulted in a significant increase in the amplitude of diurnal change, but no change in the peak timing of diurnal rhythms in both parameters. The ocular changes associated with hyperopic defocus returned to normal, the day following removal of the defocus. This research has shown that axial length undergoes significant diurnal variation in young adult human eyes, and has shown that the natural diurnal variations in choroidal thickness and IOP are significantly associated, and may underlie these diurnal fluctuations in axial length. This work also demonstrated for the first time that exposing young human eyes to monocular myopic and hyperopic defocus leads to a significant disruption in the normal diurnal rhythms of axial length and choroidal thickness. These changes in axial length with defocus may reflect underlying mechanisms in the human eye that are involved in the regulation of longer term eye growth.

Assessing resilience of water resources systems under the impacts of climate change

This paper presents an approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system under the impacts of climate change. Changes to climate characteristics such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and temperature can result in changes to the global hydrological cycle and thereby adversely impact on the ability of water supply systems to meet service standards in the future. Changes to the frequency and characteristics of floods and droughts as well as the quality of water provided by groundwater and surface water resources are the other consequences of climate change that will affect water supply system functionality. The extent and significance of these changes underline the necessity for assessing the future functionality of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. Resilience can be a tool for assessing the ability of a water supply system to meet service standards under the future climate conditions. The study approach is based on defining resilience as the ability of a system to absorb pressure without going into failure state as well as its ability to achieve an acceptable level of function quickly after failure. In order to present this definition in the form of a mathematical function, a surrogate measure of resilience has been proposed in this paper. In addition, a step-by-step approach to estimate resilience of water storage reservoirs is presented. This approach will enable a comprehensive understanding of the functioning of a water storage reservoir under future climate scenarios and can also be a robust tool to predict future challenges faced by water supply systems under the consequence of climate change.

Integration-segregation decisions under general value functions: "create your own bundle - choose 1, 2, or all 3!",

Whether to keep products segregated (e.g., unbundled) or integrate some or all of them (e.g., bundle) has been a problem of profound interest in areas such as portfolio theory in finance, risk capital allocations in insurance and marketing of consumer products. Such decisions are inherently complex and depend on factors such as the underlying product values and consumer preferences, the latter being frequently described using value functions, also known as utility functions in economics. In this paper, we develop decision rules for multiple products, which we generally call ‘exposure units’ to naturally cover manifold scenarios spanning well beyond ‘products’. Our findings show, e.g. that the celebrated Thaler's principles of mental accounting hold as originally postulated when the values of all exposure units are positive (i.e. all are gains) or all negative (i.e. all are losses). In the case of exposure units with mixed-sign values, decision rules are much more complex and rely on cataloging the Bell number of cases that grow very fast depending on the number of exposure units. Consequently, in the present paper, we provide detailed rules for the integration and segregation decisions in the case up to three exposure units, and partial rules for the arbitrary number of units.

Of hygiene and motivator factors : Views from “down under”

Comments on “Qualification Profile of University Professors in Business and Information Systems Engineering (BISE)”

Assisted suicide where the "assistor" is a beneficiary under the deceased's will and/or attorney under a power of attorney granted by the deceased : what are the potential consequences?

The recent criminal conviction 1 of Queensland teacher, Merin Nielsen, for aiding the suicide of an elderly acquaintance, Frank Ward, raises some timely issues, particularly for succession lawyers. This is the second time in recent years that there has been a conviction of a person who participated in a scheme

Essays on technology adoption under uncertainty, globalization and economic growth

This thesis examines how the initial institutional and technological aspects of the economy and the reforms that alter these aspects influence long run growth and development. These issues are addressed in the framework of stochastic endogenous growth models and an empirical framework. The thesis is able to explain why developing nations exhibit diverse growth and inequality patterns. Consequently, the thesis raises a number of policy implications regarding how these nations can improve their economic outcomes.

The government as proprietor, preserver and user of copyright material under the Copyright Act 1968 (CTH)

This thesis examines the role of government as proprietor, preserver and user of copyright material under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and the policy considerations which Australian law should take into account in that role. There are two recurring themes arising in this examination which are significant to the recommendations and conclusions. The first is whether the needs and status of government should be different from private sector institutions, which also obtain copyright protection under the law. This theme stems from the 2005 Report on Crown Copyright by the Copyright Law Review Committee and the earlier Ergas Committee Report which are discussed in Chapters 2 and 8 of this thesis. The second is to identify the relationship between government copyright law and policy, national cultural policy and fundamental governance values. This theme goes to the essence of the thesis. For example, does the law and practice of government copyright properly reflect technological change in the way we now access and use information and does it facilitate the modern information management principles of government? Is the law and practice of government copyright consistent with the greater openness and accountability of government? The thesis concludes that government copyright law and practice in each of the three governmental roles recognised under the Copyright Act 1968 has not responded adequately to the information age and to the desire and the ability of individuals to access information quickly and effectively. The solution offered in this thesis is reform of the law and of public policy that is in step with access to information policy, the promotion of better communication and interaction with the community, and the enhanced preservation of government and private copyright materials for reasons of government accountability, effective administration and national culture and heritage.

Ultimate load behaviour of box-columns under combined loading of axial compression and torsion

This paper describes a study of the theoretical and experimental behaviour of box-columns of varying b/t ratios under loadings of axial compression and torsion and their combinations. Details of the testing rigs and the testing methods, the results obtained such as the load-deflection curves and the interaction diagrams, and experimental observations regarding the behaviour of box-models and the types of local plastic mechanisms associated with each type of loading are presented. A simplified rigid-plastic analysis is carried out to study the collapse behaviour of box-columns under these loadings, based on the observed plastic mechanisms, and the results are compared with those of experiments.

Elastic buckling analysis of ideal thin-walled structures under combined loading using a finite strip method

The details of an application of the finite strip method to the elastic buckling analysis of thin-walled structures with various boundary conditions and subjected to single or combined loadings of longitudinal compression, transverse compression, bending and shear are presented. The presence of shear loading is accounted for by modifying the displacement functions which are commonly used in cases when shear is absent. A program based on the finite strip method was used to obtain the elastic buckling stress, buckling plot and buckling mode of thin-walled structures and some of these results are presented.

A simple test method for profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift

A new simple test method using small scale models has been developed for testing profiled steel cladding systems under wind uplift/suction forces. This simple method should replace the large scale test method using two-span claddings used at present. It can be used for roof or wall cladding systems fastened with screw fasteners at crests or valleys.

The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

We study the difference in the result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, personality traits, a decision in a dilemma situation, and physiological states measured by heart rate variability (HRV). Our results indicate that differences between the methods can partly be explained by gender, but not by personality traits. Furthermore, HRV is linked to risktaking in the experiment for at least one of the methods, indicating that more stressed individuals display more risk aversion. Finally, we and that risk attitudes are not predictive of the ability to decide in a dilemma, but personality traits are. Surprisingly, there is also no apparent relationship between the physiological state during the dilemma situation and the ability to make a decision.

Simulation of retrofitted unreinforced concrete masonry unit walls under blast loading

This paper describes an investigation into the effectiveness of using spray-on nano-particle reinforced polymer and aluminium foam as new types of retrofit material to prevent the breaching and collapse of unreinforced concrete masonry walls subjected to blast over a whole range of dynamic and impulsive regimes. Material models from the LSDYNA material library were used to model the behaviors of each of the materials and its interface for retrofitted and unretrofitted masonry walls. Available test data were used to validate the numerical models. Using the validated LS-DYNA numerical models, the pressure-impulse diagrams for retrofitted concrete masonry walls were constructed. The efficiency of using these retrofits to strengthen the unreinforced concrete masonry unit (CMU) walls under various pressures and impulses was investigated using pressure-impulse diagrams. Comparisons were made to find the most efficient retrofits for masonry walls against blasts.