Modeling bus rapid transit station bus queuing for operational analysis

This paper presents mathematical models for BRT station operation, calibrated using microscopic simulation modelling. Models are presented for station capacity and bus queue length. No reliable model presently exists to estimate bus queue length. The proposed bus queue model is analogous to an unsignalized intersection queuing model.

Appetite, satiety, and food reward in obese individuals : a behavioral phenotype approach

Why do some people remain lean while others are susceptible to obesity, and why do obese individuals vary in their successes in losing weight? Despite physiological processes that promote satiety and satiation, some individuals are more susceptible to overeating. While the phenomena of susceptibility to weight gain, resistance to treatment or weight loss, and individual variability are not novel, they have yet to be exploited and systematically examined to better understand how to characterise phenotypes of obesity. The identification and characterisation of distinct phenotypes not only highlight the heterogeneous nature of obesity but may also help to inform the development of more tailored strategies for the treatment and prevention of obesity. This review examines the evidence for different susceptible phenotypes of obesity that are characterised by risk factors associated with the hedonic and homeostatic systems of appetite control.

Resistance to exercise-induced weight loss : compensatory behavioral adaptations

In many interventions that are based on an exercise program intended to induce weight loss, the mean weight loss observed is modest and sometimes far less than what the individual expected. The individual responses are also widely variable, with some individuals losing a substantial amount of weight, others maintaining weight, and a few actually gaining weight. The media have focused on the subpopulation that loses little weight, contributing to a public perception that exercise has limited utility to cause weight loss. The purpose of the symposium was to present recent, novel data that help explain how compensatory behaviors contribute to a wide discrepancy in exercise-induced weight loss. The presentations provide evidence that some individuals adopt compensatory behaviors, that is, increased energy intake and/or reduced activity, that offset the exercise energy expenditure and limit weight loss. The challenge for both scientists and clinicians is to develop effective tools to identify which individuals are susceptible to such behaviors and to develop strategies to minimize their effect.

Modeling Bus Rapid Transit station bus queuing for Bus Rapid Transit station bus operation analysis

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy is used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. In the first of three stages, we conducted microscopic simulation modeling to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. A mathematical model was then developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time. Finally, simulation results were calibrated and validated.

Establishing definitions and modeling public transport travel time variability

Public transport travel time variability (PTTV) is essential for understanding deteriorations in the reliability of travel time, optimizing transit schedules and route choices. This paper establishes key definitions of PTTV in which firstly include all buses, and secondly include only a single service from a bus route. The paper then analyses the day-to-day distribution of public transport travel time by using Transit Signal Priority data. A comprehensive approach using both parametric bootstrapping Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Bayesian Information Creation technique is developed, recommends Lognormal distribution as the best descriptor of bus travel time on urban corridors. The probability density function of Lognormal distribution is finally used for calculating probability indicators of PTTV. The findings of this study are useful for both traffic managers and statisticians for planning and researching the transit systems.

The Child Behavior Checklist and Youth Self-Report in adolescents with epilepsy : testing measurement invariance of the Attention and Thought Problems subscales

The objective of this study was to test for the measurement invariance of the Attention and Thought Problems subscales of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and Youth Self-Report (YSR) in a population-based sample of adolescents with and without epilepsy. Data were obtained from the 14-year follow-up of the Mater University Study of Pregnancy in which 33 adolescents with epilepsy and 1068 healthy controls were included for analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test for measurement invariance between adolescents with and without epilepsy. Structural equation modeling was used to test for group differences in attention and thought problems as measured with the CBCL and YSR. Measurement invariance was demonstrated for the original CBCL Attention Problems and YSR Thought Problems. After the removal of ambiguous items (“confused” and “daydreams”),measurement invariance was established for the YSR Attention Problems. The original and reduced CBCL Thought Problems were noninvariant. Adolescents with epilepsy had significantly more symptoms of behavioral problems on the CBCL Attention Problems, β = 0.51, p = 0.002, compared with healthy controls. In contrast, no significant differences were found for the YSR Attention and Thought Problems, β = −0.11, p = 0.417 and β = −0.20, p = 0.116, respectively. In this population-based sample of adolescents with epilepsy, the CBCL Attention Problems and YSR Thought Problems appear to be valid measures of behavioral problems, whereas the YSR Attention Problems was valid only after the removal of ambiguous items. Replication of these findings in clinical samples of adolescents with epilepsy that overcome the limitations of the current study is warranted.

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters : theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

Denial predicts outcome in anxiety following group cognitive behavioral therapy

This study aimed to explore whether participants' pretherapy coping strategies predicted the outcome of group cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for anxiety and depression. It was hypothesized that adaptive coping strategies such as the use of active planning and acceptance would be associated with higher reductions, whereas maladaptive coping strategies such as denial and disengagement would be associated with lower reductions in anxious and depressed symptoms following psychotherapy. There were 144 participants who completed group CBT for anxiety and depression. Measures of coping strategies were administered prior to therapy, whereas measures of depression and anxiety were completed both prior to and following therapy. The results showed that higher levels of denial were associated with a poorer outcome, in terms of change in anxiety but not depression, following therapy. These findings suggest the usefulness of using the Denial subscale from the revised Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced (COPE) as a predictor of outcome in group CBT for anxiety.

The nature and correlates of young women's peer-directed protective behavioral strategies

Objective Recently, a number of studies have identified self-employed Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS) as effective in decreasing the level of alcohol-related harm among young people. However, much of the published research has ignored important gender differences, such as women's increased tendency to rely on PBS that are social in nature. To further the understanding of women's PBS, the current study sought to investigate the nature and correlates of the strategies young women employ to keep their friends safe when drinking (i.e., peer-directed PBS). Method A scale measuring peer-directed PBS was developed and administered in conjunction with existing measures of alcohol consumption, personal PBS, and peer attachment. Participants consisted of 422 women aged 18–30 years, recruited among psychology students and the general public. Results Exploratory factor analysis revealed two clusters of peer-directed PBS; those that were aimed at reducing intoxication among one's friends and those that were designed to minimize alcohol-related harms. Further analysis found a positive relationship between women's tendency to implement personal and peer-directed PBS and that risky drinkers were less likely to engage in personal or peer-directed PBS (either type). Conclusion Findings indicate that personal and peer-directed PBS are related behaviors that are less frequently adopted by risky drinkers.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Error modeling and calibration of exteroceptive sensors for accurate mapping applications

Reliable robotic perception and planning are critical to performing autonomous actions in uncertain, unstructured environments. In field robotic systems, automation is achieved by interpreting exteroceptive sensor information to infer something about the world. This is then mapped to provide a consistent spatial context, so that actions can be planned around the predicted future interaction of the robot and the world. The whole system is as reliable as the weakest link in this chain. In this paper, the term mapping is used broadly to describe the transformation of range-based exteroceptive sensor data (such as LIDAR or stereo vision) to a fixed navigation frame, so that it can be used to form an internal representation of the environment. The coordinate transformation from the sensor frame to the navigation frame is analyzed to produce a spatial error model that captures the dominant geometric and temporal sources of mapping error. This allows the mapping accuracy to be calculated at run time. A generic extrinsic calibration method for exteroceptive range-based sensors is then presented to determine the sensor location and orientation. This allows systematic errors in individual sensors to be minimized, and when multiple sensors are used, it minimizes the systematic contradiction between them to enable reliable multisensor data fusion. The mathematical derivations at the core of this model are not particularly novel or complicated, but the rigorous analysis and application to field robotics seems to be largely absent from the literature to date. The techniques in this paper are simple to implement, and they offer a significant improvement to the accuracy, precision, and integrity of mapped information. Consequently, they should be employed whenever maps are formed from range-based exteroceptive sensor data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The enemy of music : modeling the behavior of a cultural industry in crisis

The purpose of this explorative study is to contribute to the understanding of current music industry dynamics. The situation is undeniably quite dramatic: Since the turn of the millennium, the global music industry has declined by $ US 6.2 billion in value—a fall of 16.3% in constant dollar terms. IFPI, the trade organization representing the international recording industry, identifies a number of exogenous factors as the main drivers of the downturn. This article suggests that other factors, in addition to those identified by IFPI, may have contributed to the current difficulties. A model is presented which indicates that business strategies which were designed to cope with the challenging business environment have reduced product diversity, damaged profitability, and contributed to the problem they were intended to solve.

Modeling perceived influences on journalism : evidence from a cross-national survey of journalists

Surveying 1,700 journalists from seventeen countries, this study investigates perceived influences on news work. Analysis reveals a dimensional structure of six distinct domains—political, economic, organizational, professional, and procedural influences, as well as reference groups. Across countries, these six dimensions build up a hierarchical structure where organizational, professional, and procedural influences are perceived as more powerful limits to journalists' work than political and economic influences.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Wetlands : a perspective for mapping, monitoring, and modeling

Experience gained from numerous projects conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory in Las Vegas, Nevada has provided insight to functional issues of mapping, monitoring, and modeling of wetland habitats. Three case studies in poster form describe these issues pertinent to managing wetland resources as mandated under Federal laws. A multiphase project was initiated by the EPA Alaska operations office to provide detailed wetland mapping of arctic plant communities in an area under petroleum development pressure. Existing classification systems did not meet EPA needs. Therefore a Habitat Classification System (HCS) derived from aerial photography was compiled. In conjunction with this photointerpretive keys were developed. These products enable EPA personnel to map large inaccessible areas of the arctic coastal plain and evaluate the sensitivity of various wetland habitats relative to petroleum development needs.