Modelling collision potentials in Port Anchorages: Application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) for measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Grounding on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.

Real-time traffic state estimation in urban corridors from heterogeneous data

In recent years, rapid advances in information technology have led to various data collection systems which are enriching the sources of empirical data for use in transport systems. Currently, traffic data are collected through various sensors including loop detectors, probe vehicles, cell-phones, Bluetooth, video cameras, remote sensing and public transport smart cards. It has been argued that combining the complementary information from multiple sources will generally result in better accuracy, increased robustness and reduced ambiguity. Despite the fact that there have been substantial advances in data assimilation techniques to reconstruct and predict the traffic state from multiple data sources, such methods are generally data-driven and do not fully utilize the power of traffic models. Furthermore, the existing methods are still limited to freeway networks and are not yet applicable in the urban context due to the enhanced complexity of the flow behavior. The main traffic phenomena on urban links are generally caused by the boundary conditions at intersections, un-signalized or signalized, at which the switching of the traffic lights and the turning maneuvers of the road users lead to shock-wave phenomena that propagate upstream of the intersections. This paper develops a new model-based methodology to build up a real-time traffic prediction model for arterial corridors using data from multiple sources, particularly from loop detectors and partial observations from Bluetooth and GPS devices.

Estimating link-dependent origin-destination matrices from sample trajectories and traffic counts

Origin-Destination matrices (ODM) estimation can benefits of the availability of sample trajectories which can be measured thanks to recent technologies. This paper focus on the case of transport networks where traffic counts are measured by magnetic loops and sample trajectories available. An example of such network is the city of Brisbane, where Bluetooth detectors are now operating. This additional data source is used to extend the classical ODM estimation to a link-specific ODM (LODM) one using a convex optimisation resolution that incorporates networks constraints as well. The proposed algorithm is assessed on a simulated network.

A framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing

This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

New England Youth Speeding Project: A pilot study of young drivers and risky driving: Effective strategies for preventing speeding amongst young Australians aged 16-25 years in the New England Region

Young Australian drivers aged 17 – 25 years are overwhelmingly represented in road fatalities where speed is a factor. In the combined LGAs of Armidale Dumaresq, Guyra, Uralla and Walcha in the 5 years 1999-2003 inclusive, 43% of speeding related casualty crashes involved a young driver aged less than 25 years. This is despite the fact that the 17-25 age group account for only 25% of the driving population in this area. Young male drivers account for the majority of these crashes and also tend to have a higher number of driving offences and accrue more penalties for road traffic offences, especially speeding. By analysing data from questionnaires by male and female participants this research project has been able to evaluate road safety advertisements to determine which ones are most effective to young drivers, what features of these advertisements are effective, how males differ from females in their receptiveness and preferences for road safety advertisements and specifically how to target young people especially young men in conveying road safety messages. Finally this research project has identified factors that are important in the production of media road safety advertisements and has made recommendations for how best to convey effective road safety messages to young Australian drivers in rural areas.

Final report of Working Group 2: Traffic psychology [A COST Action TU1101 / HOPE collaboration]

BACKGROUND The workgroup of Traffic Psychology is concerned with the social, behavioral, and perceptual aspects that are associated with use and non-use of bicycle helmets, in their various forms and under various cycling conditions. OBJECTIVES The objectives of WG2 are to (1) share current knowledge among the people already working in the field, (2) suggest new ideas for research on and evaluation of the design of bicycle helmets, and (3) discuss options for funding of such research within the individual frameworks of the participants. Areas for research include 3.1. The patterns of use of helmets among different users: children, adults, and sports enthusiasts. 3.2. The use of helmets in different environments: rural roads, urban streets, and bike trails. 3.3. Concerns bicyclists have relative to their safety and convenience and the perceived impact of using helmets on comfort and convenience. 3.4. The benefit of helmets for enhancing visibility, and how variations in helmet design and colors affect daytime, nighttime, and dusktime visibility. 3.5. The role of helmets in the acceptance of city-wide pickup-and-drop-off bicycles. 3.6. The impact of helmets on visual search behaviour of bicyclists.

PCDD and PCDF concentrations in a traffic tunnel environment

In an effort to understand the fundamental aspects of air quality in traffic tunnel environments, field campaigns were conducted to measure polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and other important pollutants within two traffic tunnels in Nam San (NS) and Hong Ji (HJ) in Korea in 2009 and 2010. The mean concentrations of ∑PCDD/Fs (in fg/m(3)) at the two tunnel sites were 1270 (± 880) and 1200 (± 810), respectively. These values were moderately lower than those measured at a non-tunnel urban background site (1350 (± 780) fg/m(3))--selected as a reference in this study. In addition, seasonal patterns of dioxin concentrations were clearly evident at the traffic tunnels like the urban reference site, showing higher levels during the winter (and spring) than the summer (and fall). The observed seasonal variations were driven by changes in the concentrations of ∑PCDF congeners, while ∑PCDD concentrations showed little seasonality. The results of our study suggest that there is no significant difference in source characteristics between the two investigated tunnel sites and urban location, although the role of gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles are considered as the major source in determining the PCDDs and PCDF levels in a tunnel environment. However, given the relative increase in other important ambient pollutant (e.g. PM10) concentrations over ∑PCDD/Fs in tunnel air (compared to urban background air), the balance of sources in tunnels is clearly different from those in urban air overall.

Effect of upstream traffic signal on capacity of a downstream TWSC intersection

This paper investigates the platoon dispersion model that is part of the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual that is used for forecasting downstream traffic flows for analyzing both signalized and TWSC intersections. The paper focuses on the effect of platoon dispersion on the proportion of time blocked, the conflicting flow rate, and the capacity flow rate for the major street left turn movement at a TWSC intersection. The existing HCM 2010 methodology shows little effect on conflicting flow or capacity for various distances downstream from the signalized intersection. Two methods are suggested for computing the conflicting flow and capacity of minor stream movements at the TWSC intersection that have more desirable properties than the existing HCM method. Further, if the existing HCM method is retained, the results suggest that the upstream signals model be dropped from the HCM method for TWSC intersections.

A framework for generating realistic traffic for distributed denial-of-service attacks and flash events

An intrinsic challenge associated with evaluating proposed techniques for detecting Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks and distinguishing them from Flash Events (FEs) is the extreme scarcity of publicly available real-word traffic traces. Those available are either heavily anonymised or too old to accurately reflect the current trends in DDoS attacks and FEs. This paper proposes a traffic generation and testbed framework for synthetically generating different types of realistic DDoS attacks, FEs and other benign traffic traces, and monitoring their effects on the target. Using only modest hardware resources, the proposed framework, consisting of a customised software traffic generator, ‘Botloader’, is capable of generating a configurable mix of two-way traffic, for emulating either large-scale DDoS attacks, FEs or benign traffic traces that are experimentally reproducible. Botloader uses IP-aliasing, a well-known technique available on most computing platforms, to create thousands of interactive UDP/TCP endpoints on a single computer, each bound to a unique IP-address, to emulate large numbers of simultaneous attackers or benign clients.

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Microscopic cooperative traffic flow: Calibration and simulation based on a next generation simulation dataset

The deployment of new emerging technologies, such as cooperative systems, allows the traffic community to foresee relevant improvements in terms of traffic safety and efficiency. Autonomous vehicles are able to share information about the local traffic state in real time, which could result in a better reaction to the mechanism of traffic jam formation. An upstream single-hop radio broadcast network can improve the perception of each cooperative driver within a specific radio range and hence the traffic stability. The impact of vehicle to vehicle cooperation on the onset of traffic congestion is investigated analytically and through simulation. A next generation simulation field dataset is used to calibrate the full velocity difference car-following model, and the MOBIL lane-changing model is implemented. The robustness of the calibration as well as the heterogeneity of the drivers is discussed. Assuming that congestion can be triggered either by the heterogeneity of drivers' behaviours or abnormal lane-changing behaviours, the calibrated car-following model is used to assess the impact of a microscopic cooperative law on egoistic lane-changing behaviours. The cooperative law can help reduce and delay traffic congestion and can have a positive effect on safety indicators.

Socio-cultural influences on vehicle defects in the Omani heavy vehicle industry

With recent economic growth in Oman there is increased use of heavy vehicles, presenting an increase in heavy vehicle crashes, associated fatalities and injuries. Vehicle defects cause a significant number of heavy vehicle crashes in Oman and increase the likelihood of fatalities. The aim of this study is to explore factors contributing to driving with vehicle defects in the Omani heavy vehicle industry. A series of qualitative participants observations were conducted in Oman with 49 drivers. These observations also involved discussion and interviews with drivers. The observations occurred at two road-side locations where heavy vehicle drivers gather for eating, resting, vehicle check-up, etc. Data collection was conducted over a three week period. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. A broad number of factors were identified as contributing to the driving of vehicles with defects. Participants indicated that tyres and vehicle mechanical faults were a common issue in the heavy vehicle industry. Participants regularly reported that their companies use cheap, poor quality standards parts and conducted minimal maintenance. Drivers also indicated that they felt powerless to resist company pressure to drive vehicles with known faults. In addition, drivers reported that traffic police were generally in effective and lacked skill to appropriately conduct roadside inspection on trucks. Further, participants stated that it was possible for companies to avoid being fined during annual or roadside vehicle inspections if members of the company knew the traffic police officer conducting the inspection. Moreover, fines issued by police are generally directed to the individual driver rather than being applied to the company, thus providing no incentive for companies to address vehicle faults. The implications of the findings are discussed.

A comparison of road traffic crashes along mountainous and non-mountainous roads in Sabah, Malaysia

Constrained topography and complex road geometry along rural mountainous roads often represent a demanding driving situation. As a result, traffic crashes along mountainous roads are likely to have different characteristics to crashes on roads in flatter areas; however, there is little research on this topic. The objective of this study is to examine the characteristics of road traffic crashes on rural mountainous roads and to compare these with the characteristics of crashes on non-mountainous roads. This paper explores and compares general crash characteristics including crash type, crash severity, roadway geometric features and environmental factors, and road user/vehicle characteristics. Five years of road traffic crash data (2008-2012) for Sabah were obtained from the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research. During this period, a total of 25,439 crashes occurred along federal roads in Sabah, of which 4,875 crashes occurred in mountainous areas. Categorical data analysis techniques were used to examine the differences between mountainous and non-mountainous crashes. Results show that the odds ratio of ‘out-of-control’ crashes and the crash involvement due to speeding are respectively about 4.2 times and 2.8 times higher on mountainous than non-mountainous roads. Other factors and crash characteristics that increase the odds of crashes along mountainous roads compared with non-mountainous roads include horizontal curved sections compared with straight sections, single-vehicle crashes compared with multi-vehicle crashes and weekend crashes compared with weekday crashes. This paper identifies some of the basic characteristics of crashes along rural mountainous roads to aid future research on traffic safety along mountainous roads.

Policing of road safety in Oman: Perceptions and beliefs of traffic police officers

With increasing motorisation, road safety has become a major concern within Oman. Internationally, traffic policing plays a major role in improving road safety. Within Oman, the Royal Oman Police's (ROP) Directorate General of Traffic is responsible for policing traffic laws. Many common enforcement approaches originate from culturally different jurisdictions. The ROP is a relatively young policing force and may have different operational practices. Prior to applying practices from other jurisdictions it is important to understand the beliefs and expectations within the Directorate General of Traffic. Further, there is a need for individuals to understand their role and what is expected of them. Therefore, it is important to explore the agreement between levels of the ROP to determine how strategies and expectations transfer within the organisation. Interviews were conducted with 19 police officers from various levels of the ROP. A number of themes and findings emerged. Individuals at the upper level of the traffic police had a clear knowledge of the role of the ROP, believed that traffic police know what is expected of them, are well trained in their role and can have a very positive influence on road safety. These beliefs were less certain lower within the organisations with traffic officers having little knowledge of the role of the ROP or what was expected of them, felt undertrained, and believed their peers have little positive impact on road safety. There is a need to address barriers within the ROP in order to positively impact road safety.

A comparison of road traffic crashes along mountainous and non-mountainous roads in Sabah, Malaysia

Constrained topography and complex road geometry along rural mountainous roads often represent a demanding driving situation. As a result, traffic crashes along mountainous roads are likely to have different characteristics to crashes on roads in flatter areas; however, there is little research on this topic. The objective of this study is to examine the characteristics of road traffic crashes on rural mountainous roads and to compare these with the characteristics of crashes on non-mountainous roads. This paper explores and compares general crash characteristics including crash type, crash severity, roadway geometric features and environmental factors, and road user/vehicle characteristics. Five years of road traffic crash data (2008-2012) for Sabah were obtained from the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research. During this period, a total of 25,439 crashes occurred along federal roads in Sabah, of which 4,875 crashes occurred in mountainous areas. Categorical data analysis techniques were used to examine the differences between mountainous and non-mountainous crashes. Results show that the odds ratio of ‘out-of-control’ crashes and the crash involvement due to speeding are respectively about 4.2 times and 2.8 times higher on mountainous than non-mountainous roads. Other factors and crash characteristics that increase the odds of crashes along mountainous roads compared with non-mountainous roads include horizontal curved sections compared with straight sections, single-vehicle crashes compared with multi-vehicle crashes and weekend crashes compared with weekday crashes. This paper identifies some of the basic characteristics of crashes along rural mountainous roads to aid future research on traffic safety along mountainous roads.