363 resultados para Predictive Mean Squared Efficiency
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BACKGROUND There is a growing volume of open source ‘education material’ on energy efficiency now available however the Australian government has identified a need to increase the use of such materials in undergraduate engineering education. Furthermore, there is a reported need to rapidly equip engineering graduates with the capabilities in conducting energy efficiency assessments, to improve energy performance across major sectors of the economy. In January 2013, building on several years of preparatory action-research initiatives, the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) offered $600,000 to develop resources for energy efficiency related graduate attributes, targeting Engineers Australia college disciplines, accreditation requirements and opportunities to address such requirements. PURPOSE This paper discusses a $430,000 successful bid by a university consortium led by QUT and including RMIT, UA, UOW, and VU, to design and pilot several innovative, targeted open-source resources for curriculum renewal related to energy efficiency assessments, in Australian engineering programs (2013-2014), including ‘flat-pack’, ‘media-bites’, ‘virtual reality’ and ‘deep dive’ case study initiatives. DESIGN/ METHOD The paper draws on literature review and lessons learned by the consortium partners in resource development over the last several years to discuss methods for selecting key graduate attributes and providing targeted resources, supporting materials, and innovative delivery options to assist universities deliver knowledge and skills to develop such attributes. This includes strategic industry and key stakeholders engagement. The paper also discusses processes for piloting, validating, peer reviewing, and refining these resources using a rigorous and repeatable approach to engaging with academic and industry colleagues. RESULTS The paper provides an example of innovation in resource development through an engagement strategy that takes advantage of existing networks, initiatives, and funding arrangements, while informing program accreditation requirements, to produce a cost-effective plan for rapid integration of energy efficiency within education. By the conference, stakeholder workshops will be complete. Resources will be in the process of being drafted, building on findings from the stakeholder engagement workshops. Reporting on this project “in progress” provides a significant opportunity to share lessons learned and take on board feedback and input. CONCLUSIONS This paper provides a useful reference document for others considering significant resource development in a consortium approach, summarising benefits and challenges. The paper also provides a basis for documenting the second half of the project, which comprises piloting resources and producing a ‘good practice guide’ for energy efficiency related curriculum renewal.
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The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.
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In moderate to high sea states, the effectiveness of ship fin stabilizers can severely deteriorate due to nonlinear effects arising from unsteady hydrodynamic characteristics of the fins: dynamic stall. These nonlinear effects take the form of a hysteresis, and they become very significant when the effective angle of attack of the fins exceeds a certain threshold angle. Dynamic stall can result in a complete loss of control action depending on how much the fins exceed the threshold angle. When this is detected, it is common to reduce the gain of the controller that commands the fins. This approach is cautious and tends to reduce performance when the conditions leading to dynamic stall disappear. An alternative approach for preventing the effects while keeping high performance, consists of estimating the effective angle of attack and set a conservative constraint on it as part of the control objectives. In this paper, we investigate the latter approach, and propose the use of a model predictive control (MPC) to prevent the development of these nonlinear effects by considering constraints on both the mechanical angle of the fins and the effective angle of attack.
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Capacity reduction programmes, in the form of buybacks or decommissioning, have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programmes is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet, which tends to increase the effective fishing power of the remaining fleet. In this paper, the effects of a buyback programme on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output production function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. As expected, the results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was generally greater than that of the removed vessels. Further, there was some evidence of an increase in average scale efficiency in the fleet as the remaining vessels were closer, on average, to the optimal scale. Key factors affecting technical efficiency included company structure and the number of vessels fishing. In regard to fleet size, our model suggests positive externalities associated with more boats fishing at any point in time (due to information sharing and reduced search costs), but also negative externalities due to crowding, with the latter effect dominating the former. Hence, the buyback resulted in a net increase in the individual efficiency of the remaining vessels due to reduced crowding, as well as raising average efficiency through removal of less efficient vessels.
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The purpose of this study was to derive ActiGraph cut-points for sedentary (SED), light-intensity physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in toddlers and evaluate their validity in an independent sample. The predictive validity of established preschool cut-points were also evaluated and compared. Twenty-two toddlers (mean age = 2.1 years ± 0.4 years) wore an ActiGraph accelerometer during a videotaped 20-min play period. Videos were subsequently coded for physical activity (PA) intensity using the modified Children's Activity Rating Scale (CARS). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to determine cut-points. Predictive validity was assessed in an independent sample of 18 toddlers (mean age = 2.3 ± 0.4 years). From the ROC curve analyses, the 15-s count ranges corresponding to SED, LPA, and MVPA were 0–48, 49–418, and >418 counts/15 s, respectively. Classification accuracy was fair for the SED threshold (ROC-AUC = 0.74, 95% confidence interval = 0.71–0.76) and excellent for MVPA threshold (ROC-AUC = 0.90, 95% confidence interval = 0.88–0.92). In the cross-validation sample, the toddler cut-point and established preschool cut-points significantly overestimated time spent in SED and underestimated time in spent in LPA. For MVPA, mean differences between observed and predicted values for the toddler and Pate cut-points were not significantly different from zero. In summary, the ActiGraph accelerometer can provide useful group-level estimates of MVPA in toddlers. The results support the use of the Pate cut-point of 420 counts/15 s for MVPA.
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Currently, open circuit Bayer refineries pump seawater directly into their operations to neutralise the caustic fraction of the Bayer residue. The resulting supernatant has a reduced pH and is pumped back to the marine environment. This investigation has assessed modified seawater sources generated from different ion filtration processes to compare their relative capacities to neutralise bauxite residues. An assessment of the chemical stability of the neutralisation products, neutralisation efficiency, discharge water quality, bauxite residue composition, and associated economic benefits have been considered to determine the most preferable seawater filtration process based on implementation costs, savings to operations and environmental benefits. The mechanism of neutralisation for each technology was determined to be predominately due to the formation of Bayer hydrotalcite and calcium carbonate, however variations in neutralisation capacity and efficiencies have been observed. The neutralisation efficiency of each feed source has been found to be dependent on the concentration of magnesium, aluminium, calcium and carbonate. These studies have revealed that multiple neutralisation steps occur throughout the process. Environmental, economic and social advantages and disadvantages of the different filtration technologies have been explored to determine the most sustainable method for the neutralisation of bauxite residues. The relative degree of “green” associated with nanofiltered seawater and reverse osmosis filtered seawater are discussed.
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Electrification of vehicular systems has gained increased momentum in recent years with particular attention to constant power loads (CPLs). Since a CPL potentially threatens system stability, stability analysis of hybrid electric vehicle with CPLs becomes necessary. A new power buffer configuration with battery is introduced to mitigate the effect of instability caused by CPLs. Model predictive control (MPC) is applied to regulate the power buffer to decouple source and load dynamics. Moreover, MPC provides an optimal tradeoff between modification of load impedance, variation of dc-link voltage and battery current ripples. This is particularly important during transients or starting of system faults, since battery response is not very fast. Optimal tradeoff becomes even more significant when considering low-cost power buffer without battery. This paper analyzes system models for both voltage swell and voltage dip faults. Furthermore, a dual mode MPC algorithm is implemented in real time offering improved stability. A comprehensive set of experimental results is included to verify the efficacy of the proposed power buffer.
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Suspended loads on UAVs can provide significant benefits to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction. The load impact on the underlying system dynamics should not be neglected as significant feedback forces may be induced on the vehicle during certain flight manoeuvres. Much research has focused on standard multi-rotor position and attitude control with and without a slung load. However, predictive control schemes, such as Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), have not yet been fully explored. To this end, we present software and flight system architecture to test controller for safe and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung load in three dimensions.
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Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of three accelerometer prediction equations (Freedson et aL, 1997; Trost et aL, 1998; Puyau et al., 2002) for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents. Methods 45 healthy children and adolescents aged 10-18 completed the following protocol, each task 5-mins in duration, with a 5-min rest period in between; walking normally; walking briskly; running easily and running fast. During each task participants wore MTI (WAM 7164) Actigraphs on the left and right hips. VO2 was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b2 portable indirect calorimetry system. For each prediction equation, difference scores were calculated as EE measured minus EE predicted. The percentage of 1-min epochs correctly categorized as light (<3 METs), moderate (3-5.9 METs), and vigorous (≥6 METS) was also calculated. Results The Freedson and Trost equations consistently overestimated MET level. The level of overestimation was statistically significant across all tasks for the Freedson equation, and was significant for only the walking tasks for the Trost equation. The Puyau equation consistently underestimated AEE with the exception of the walking normally task. In terms of categorisation, the Freedson equation (72.8% agreement) demonstrated better agreement than the Puyau (60.6%). Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overland walking and running. However, the cut points generated by these equations maybe useful for classifying activity as either, light, moderate, or vigorous.
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As part of a wider study to develop an ecosystem-health monitoring program for wadeable streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia, comparisons were made regarding the accuracy, precision and relative efficiency of single-pass backpack electrofishing and multiple-pass electrofishing plus supplementary seine netting to quantify fish assemblage attributes at two spatial scales (within discrete mesohabitat units and within stream reaches consisting of multiple mesohabitat units). The results demonstrate that multiple-pass electrofishing plus seine netting provide more accurate and precise estimates of fish species richness, assemblage composition and species relative abundances in comparison to single-pass electrofishing alone, and that intensive sampling of three mesohabitat units (equivalent to a riffle-run-pool sequence) is a more efficient sampling strategy to estimate reach-scale assemblage attributes than less intensive sampling over larger spatial scales. This intensive sampling protocol was sufficiently sensitive that relatively small differences in assemblage attributes (<20%) could be detected with a high statistical power (1-β > 0.95) and that relatively few stream reaches (<4) need be sampled to accurately estimate assemblage attributes close to the true population means. The merits and potential drawbacks of the intensive sampling strategy are discussed, and it is deemed to be suitable for a range of monitoring and bioassessment objectives.
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We examine some variations of standard probability designs that preferentially sample sites based on how easy they are to access. Preferential sampling designs deliver unbiased estimates of mean and sampling variance and will ease the burden of data collection but at what cost to our design efficiency? Preferential sampling has the potential to either increase or decrease sampling variance depending on the application. We carry out a simulation study to gauge what effect it will have when sampling Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) values in a large agricultural region in south-eastern Australia. Preferential sampling in this region can reduce the distance to travel by up to 16%. Our study is based on a dataset of predicted SOC values produced from a datamining exercise. We consider three designs and two ways to determine ease of access. The overall conclusion is that sampling performance deteriorates as the strength of preferential sampling increases, due to the fact the regions of high SOC are harder to access. So our designs are inadvertently targeting regions of low SOC value. The good news, however, is that Generalised Random Tessellation Stratification (GRTS) sampling designs are not as badly affected as others and GRTS remains an efficient design compared to competitors.
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Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).
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This paper seeks to explain how the selective securitization of infectious disease arose, and to analyze the policy successes from this move. It is argued that despite some success, such as the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, there remain serious deficiencies in the political outputs from the securitization of infectious disease.
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There is a continuous quest for developing electrochromic (EC)transition metal oxides (TMOs) with increased coloration efficiency. As emerging TMOs, Nb2O5 films, even those of ordered anodized nanochannels, have failed to produce the required EC performance for practical applications. This is attributed to limitations presented by its relatively wide bandgap and low capacity for accommodating ions. To overcome such issues, MoO3 was electrodeposited onto Nb2O5 nanochannelled films as homogeneously conformal and stratified α-MoO3 coatings of different thickness. The EC performance of the resultant MoO3 coated Nb2O5 binary system was evaluated. The system exhibited a coloration efficiency of 149.0 cm2 C−1, exceeding that of any previous reports on MoO3 and Nb2O5 individually or their compounds. The enhancement was ascribed to a combination of the reduced effective bandgap of the binary system, the increased intercalation probability from the layered α-MoO3 coating, and a high surface-tovolume ratio, while the Nb2O5 nanochannelled templates provided stability and low impurity pathways for charge transfer to occur.
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Uniform DNA distribution in tumors is a prerequisite step for high transfection efficiency in solid tumors. To improve the transfection efficiency of electrically assisted gene delivery to solid tumors in vivo, we explored how tumor histological properties affected transfection efficiency. In four different tumor types (B16F1, EAT, SA-1 and LPB), proteoglycan and collagen content was morphometrically analyzed, and cell size and cell density were determined in paraffin-embedded tumor sections under a transmission microscope. To demonstrate the influence of the histological properties of solid tumors on electrically assisted gene delivery, the correlation between histological properties and transfection efficiency with regard to the time interval between DNA injection and electroporation was determined. Our data demonstrate that soft tumors with larger spherical cells, low proteoglycan and collagen content, and low cell density are more effectively transfected (B16F1 and EAT) than rigid tumors with high proteoglycan and collagen content, small spindle-shaped cells and high cell density (LPB and SA-1). Furthermore, an optimal time interval for increased transfection exists only in soft tumors, this being in the range of 5-15 min. Therefore, knowledge about the histology of tumors is important in planning electrogene therapy with respect to the time interval between DNA injection and electroporation.