Advance transit oriented development typology : case study in Brisbane, Australia

Internationally, transit oriented development (TOD) is characterised by moderate to high density development with diverse land use patterns and well connected street networks centred around high frequency transit stops (bus and rail). Although different TOD typologies have been developed in different contexts, they are based on subjective evaluation criteria derived from the context in which they are built and typically lack a validation measure. Arguably there exist sets of TOD characteristics that perform better in certain contexts, and being able to optimise TOD effectiveness would facilitate planning and supporting policy development. This research utilises data from census collection districts (CCDs) in Brisbane with different sets of TOD attributes measured across six objectively quantified built environmental indicators: net employment density, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility. Using these measures, a Two Step Cluster Analysis was conducted to identify natural groupings of the CCDs with similar profiles, resulting in four unique TOD clusters: (a) residential TODs, (b) activity centre TODs, (c) potential TODs, and; (d) TOD non-suitability. The typologies are validated by estimating a multinomial logistic regression model in order to understand the mode choice behaviour of 10,013 individuals living in these areas. Results indicate that in comparison to people living in areas classified as residential TODs, people who reside in non-TOD clusters were significantly less likely to use public transport (PT) (1.4 times), and active transport (4 times) compared to the car. People living in areas classified as potential TODs were 1.3 times less likely to use PT, and 2.5 times less likely to use active transport compared to using the car. Only a little difference in mode choice behaviour was evident between people living in areas classified as residential TODs and activity centre TODs. The results suggest that: (a) two types of TODs may be suitable for classification and effect mode choice in Brisbane; (b) TOD typology should be developed based on their TOD profile and performance matrices; (c) both bus stop and train station based TODs are suitable for development in Brisbane.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Neoliberalism and Spatial Adaptation

Human spatial environments must adapt to climate change. Spatial planning is central to climate change adaptation and potentially well suited to the task, however neoliberal influences and trends threaten this capacity. This paper explores the significance of neoliberal influences on urban planning to climate change adaptation. The potential form of spatial adaptation within the context of a planning environment influenced by neoliberal principles is evaluated. This influence relates to spatial scale, temporal scale, responsibility for action, strategies and mechanisms, accrual of benefits, negotiation of priorities and approach to uncertainty. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the influence of neoliberalism on spatial adaptation. It identifies the potential characteristics, challenges and opportunities of spatial adaptation under a neoliberal frame. The neoliberal frame does not entirely preclude spatial adaptation but significantly influence its form. Neoliberal approaches involve individual action in response to private incentives and near term impacts while collective action, regulatory mechanisms and long term planning is approached cautiously. Challenges concern the degree to which collective action and a long term orientation are necessary, how individual adaptation relates to collective vulnerability and the prioritisation of adaptation by markets. Opportunities might involve the operability of individual and local adaptation, the existence of private incentives to adapt and the potential to align adaptation with entrepreneurial projects.

A parcel-scale assessment tool to measure sustainability through urban ecosystem components : the MUSIX model

In recent years a number of urban sustainability assessment frameworks are developed to better inform policy formulation and decision-making processes. This paper introduces one of these attempts in developing a comprehensive assessment tool—i.e., Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX). Being an indicator-based indexing model, MUSIX investigates the environmental impacts of land-uses on urban sustainability by measuring urban ecosystem components in local scale. The paper presents the methodology of MUSIX and demonstrates the performance of the model in a pilot test-bed—i.e., in Gold Coast, Australia. The model provides useful insights on the sustainability performance of the test-bed area. The parcel-scale findings of the indicators are used to identify local problems considering six main issues of urban development—i.e., hydrology; ecology; pollution; location; design, and; efficiency. The composite index score is used to propose betterment strategies to guide the development of local area plans in conjunction with the City's Planning Scheme. In overall, this study has shown that parcel-scale environmental data provides an overview of the local sustainability in urban areas as in the example of Gold Coast, which can also be used for setting environmental policy, objectives and targets.

Patterns of social capital associated with transit oriented development

In policy circles, transit oriented development (TOD) is believed to enhance social capital, however empirical evidence of this relationship is lacking. This research compares levels of social capital between TOD vs. non-TOD areas in Brisbane, Australia. Using a Two Step cluster analysis technique, three types of neighbourhood groupings were identified based on net employment density, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, and public transport accessibility: TODs, transit adjacent development (TADs) and traditional suburbs. Two dimensions of social capital were measured (trust and reciprocity, connections with neighbours) based on factor analysis of eight items representing elements of social capital. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify links between the distributions of the dimensions of social capital on areas defined as TODs, TADs, and traditional suburbs controlling for socio-demographics and environmental factors. Results show that individuals living in TODs had a significantly higher level of trust and reciprocity and connections with neighbours compared with residents of TADs. It appears that TODs may foster the development of social sustainability.

Adaptation and change in Queensland’s rangelands : cell grazing as an emerging ideology of pastoral-ecology

Does the current global political economic framework, or more specifically, the cost-price squeeze associated with primary production, restrict the choices of Australian cattle graziers in moving to more sustainable practices? It has often been argued by primary producers and academics, alike, that current terms of trade have resulted in reduced profitability at the property level, and as such, have made it difficult for landholders to shift to practices which are environmentally sustainable. Whilst there is mounting evidence that this is case, there is also evidence that some graziers have been able to adapt to the prevailing market conditions through an ideological as well as ‘practice’ shift. Findings from qualitative research in Central Queensland, Australia has highlighted how ‘cell grazing’ departs from the traditional or conventional aspects of grazing which can be described as productivist, to an approach closely approximating Lang and Heasman’s (2004) ‘ecologically integrated paradigm’. It is argued that cell grazing is, at present, a marginal activity that requires an ideological and cultural shift, as well as an investment in new infrastructure, however, current cell grazing activities may also demonstrate that beef grazing has the potential to be both economically and environmentally sustainable.

The importance of agency in facilitating the transition to a multifunctional countryside

We appreciate Holmes' body of work relating to transitions within the Australian landscape, and welcome the opportunity to engage in a discussion on this topic. The paper to which Holmes refers (Bjørkhaug and Richards, 2008) examined the application of agricultural (rather than landscape) multifunctionality in both Norway and Australia. Of specific focus was how non-tradeable concerns, such as environmental sustainability, faired under these divergent systems. We argued that Norway's multifunctionality was strong, due to it being embraced at both the policy and actor level, whereas Australia's could be described as weak. This ‘weak multifunctionality’ that we observed in Australia was due to an emerging bi-lateral (state and federal) policy framework that advocated the importance of environmental values which was rarely embraced by landholders who found themselves trapped on the ‘agricultural treadmill’. The nature of the treadmill is that alternative forms of land use are unthinkable when on-farm investments have been made that support the status quo – to get bigger and/or more efficient. For many of the Australian landholders interviewed in relation to this study, efficiency in production was at odds with the values necessary to effect a transition toward multifunctionality. For instance, graziers in Central Queensland were unconvinced of the value of conserving native flora and fauna when economic viability can be better assured through clear felling native forests to increase the productive capacity of the land.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Viewpoint : social and economic dimensions of involving savanna communities in carbon management systems

In this paper we discuss the social, economic and institutional aspects of the development of carbon management systems within Australia's tropical savannas. Land-use values in savanna landscapes are changing as a result of changing economic markets, greater recognition of native title, and growing social demands and expectations for tourism, recreation and conservation. In addition, there is increasing interest in developing markets and policy arrangements for greenhouse gas abatement, carbon sequestration and carbon trade in savannas. We argue that for carbon management to lead to national greenhouse outcomes, attention must be paid to social, economic and institutional issues in environmental planning and policy arrangements. From an economic perspective, the financial impact of carbon management on savanna enterprises will depend on appropriate and available policy mechanisms, unit price for carbon, landscape condition, existing management strategies and abatement measurements used. Local social and cultural features of communities and regions may enhance or constrain the implementation of carbon abatement strategies, depending on how they are perceived. In terms of institutional arrangements, policies and plans must support and enable carbon management. We identify three areas that require priority investigation and adjustment: regional planning arrangements, property rights, and rules for accounting at enterprise and regional scales. We conclude that the best potential for managing for carbon will be achieved while managing for range of other natural resource management outcomes, especially where managing for carbon delivers collateral benefits to enterprises.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.