Fully Bayesian experimental design for pharmacokinetic studies

Utility functions in Bayesian experimental design are usually based on the posterior distribution. When the posterior is found by simulation, it must be sampled from for each future data set drawn from the prior predictive distribution. Many thousands of posterior distributions are often required. A popular technique in the Bayesian experimental design literature to rapidly obtain samples from the posterior is importance sampling, using the prior as the importance distribution. However, importance sampling will tend to break down if there is a reasonable number of experimental observations and/or the model parameter is high dimensional. In this paper we explore the use of Laplace approximations in the design setting to overcome this drawback. Furthermore, we consider using the Laplace approximation to form the importance distribution to obtain a more efficient importance distribution than the prior. The methodology is motivated by a pharmacokinetic study which investigates the effect of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on the pharmacokinetics of antibiotics in sheep. The design problem is to find 10 near optimal plasma sampling times which produce precise estimates of pharmacokinetic model parameters/measures of interest. We consider several different utility functions of interest in these studies, which involve the posterior distribution of parameter functions.

Experimental studies of hollow flange channel beams subject to combined bending and shear actions

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to combined bending and shear actions. The LSB sections are produced by a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding. Due to the geometry of the LSB, as well as its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections resultant of manufacturing processes, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending actions and predominant shear actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the strength of LSB sections under combined bending and shear actions. Combined bending and shear is especially prevalent at the supports of continuous span and cantilever beams, where the interaction of high shear force and bending moment can reduce the capacity of a section to well below that for the same section subject only to pure shear or moment. Hence experimental studies were conducted to assess the combined bending and shear behaviour and strengths of LSBs. Eighteen tests were conducted and the results were compared with current AS/NZS 4600 and AS 4100 design rules. AS/NZS 4600 design rules were shown to grossly underestimate the combined bending and shear capacities of LSBs and hence two lower bound design equations were proposed based on experimental results. Use of these equations will significantly improve the confidence and cost-effectiveness of designing LSBs for combined bending and shear actions.

The effect of varied test instructions on neuropsychological performance following mild traumatic brain injury : an investigation of ‘diagnosis threat’

Diagnosis threat is a psychosocial factor that has been proposed to contribute to poor outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). This threat is thought to impair the cognitive test performance of individuals with mTBI because of negative injury stereotypes. University students (N= 45, 62.2% female) with a history of mTBI were randomly allocated to a diagnosis threat (DT, n=15), reduced threat (DT-reduced, n=15) or neutral (n=15) group. The reduced threat condition invoked a positive stereotype (i.e., that people with mTBI can perform well on cognitive tests). All participants were given neutral instructions before they completed baseline tests of: a) objective cognitive function across a number of domains; b) psychological symptoms; and, c) PCS symptoms, including self-reported cognitive and emotional difficulties. Participants then received either neutral, DT or DT-reduced instructions, before repeating the tests. Results were analyzed using separate mixed model ANOVAs; one for each dependent measure. The only significant result was for the 2 X 3 ANOVA on an objective test of attention/working memory, Digit Span, p<.05, such that the DT-reduced group performed better than the other groups, which were not different from each other. Although not consistent with predictions or earlier DT studies, the absence of group differences on most tests fits with several recent DT findings. The results of this study suggest that it is timely to reconsider the role of DT as a unique contributor to poor mTBI outcome.

Identification of radiological alveolar pneumonia in children with high rates of hospitalized respiratory infections : Comparison of WHO-defined and pediatric pulmonologist diagnosis in the clinical context

Background A reliable standardized diagnosis of pneumonia in children has long been difficult to achieve. Clinical and radiological criteria have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), however, their generalizability to different populations is uncertain. We evaluated WHO defined chest radiograph (CXRs) confirmed alveolar pneumonia in the clinical context in Central Australian Aboriginal children, a high risk population, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI). Methods CXRs in children (aged 1-60 months) hospitalized and treated with intravenous antibiotics for ALRI and enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Vitamin A/Zinc supplementation were matched with data collected during a population-based study of WHO-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (WHO-EPC). These CXRs were reread by a pediatric pulmonologist (PP) and classified as pneumonia-PP when alveolar changes were present. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for clinical presentations were compared between WHO-EPC and pneumonia-PP. Results Of the 147 episodes of hospitalized ALRI, WHO-EPC was significantly less commonly diagnosed in 40 (27.2%) compared to pneumonia-PP (difference 20.4%, 95% CI 9.6-31.2, P < 0.001). Clinical signs on admission were poor predictors for both pneumonia-PP and WHO-EPC; the sensitivities of clinical signs ranged from a high of 45% for tachypnea to 5% for fever + tachypnea + chest-indrawing. The PPV range was 40-20%, respectively. Higher PPVs were observed against the pediatric pulmonologist's diagnosis compared to WHO-EPC. Conclusions WHO-EPC underestimates alveolar consolidation in a clinical context. Its use in clinical practice or in research designed to inform clinical management in this population should be avoided. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2012; 47:386-392. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cervical auscultation in the diagnosis of oropharyngeal aspiration in children : a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Oropharyngeal aspiration (OPA) can lead to recurrent respiratory illnesses and chronic lung disease in children. Current clinical feeding evaluations performed by speech pathologists have poor reliability in detecting OPA when compared to radiological procedures such as the modified barium swallow (MBS). Improved ability to diagnose OPA accurately via clinical evaluation potentially reduces reliance on expensive, less readily available radiological procedures. Our study investigates the utility of adding cervical auscultation (CA), a technique of listening to swallowing sounds, in improving the diagnostic accuracy of a clinical evaluation for the detection of OPA. Methods We plan an open, unblinded, randomised controlled trial at a paediatric tertiary teaching hospital. Two hundred and sixteen children fulfilling the inclusion criteria will be randomised to one of the two clinical assessment techniques for the clinical detection of OPA: (1) clinical feeding evaluation only (CFE) group or (2) clinical feeding evaluation with cervical auscultation (CFE + CA) group. All children will then undergo an MBS to determine radiologically assessed OPA. The primary outcome is the presence or absence of OPA, as determined on MBS using the Penetration-Aspiration Scale. Our main objective is to determine the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of ‘CFE + CA’ versus ‘CFE’ only compared to MBS-identified OPA. Discussion Early detection and appropriate management of OPA is important to prevent chronic pulmonary disease and poor growth in children. As the reliability of CFE to detect OPA is low, a technique that can improve the diagnostic accuracy of the CFE will help minimise consequences to the paediatric respiratory system. Cervical auscultation is a technique that has previously been documented as a clinical adjunct to the CFE; however, no published RCTs addressing the reliability of this technique in children exist. Our study will be the first to establish the utility of CA in assessing and diagnosing OPA risk in young children.

Experimental arts practice incorporating motion capture

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. Made by Motion is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generate experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN – Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In my presentation I will be displaying and discussing a selected creative works from the project along with the process and considerations behind the work.

Validation of the interRAI Cognitive Performance Scale against independent clinical diagnosis and the Mini-Mental State Examination in older hospitalized patients

Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the interRAI Acute Care (AC) Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS2) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), against independent clinical diagnosis for detecting dementia in older hospitalized patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The study was part of a prospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥70 years admitted to four acute hospitals in Queensland, Australia, between 2008 and 2010. Recruitment was consecutive and patients expected to remain in hospital for ≥48 hours were eligible to participate. Data for 462 patients were available for this study. Measurements Trained research nurses completed comprehensive geriatric assessments and administered the interRAI AC and MMSE to patients. Two physicians independently reviewed patients’ medical records and assessments to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Indicators of diagnostic accuracy included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and areas under receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curves. Results 85 patients (18.4%) were considered to have dementia according to independent clinical diagnosis. The sensitivity of the CPS2 [0.68 (95%CI: 0.58–0.77)] was not statistically different to the MMSE [0.75 (0.64–0.83)] in predicting physician diagnosed dementia. The AUCs for the 2 instruments were also not statistically different: CPS2 AUC = 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78–0.89) and MMSE AUC = 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.91), while the CPS2 demonstrated higher specificity [0.92 95%CI: 0.89–0.95)] than the MMSE [0.82 (0.77–0.85)]. Agreement between the CPS2 and clinical diagnosis was substantial (87.4%; κ=0.61). Conclusion The CPS2 appears to be a reliable screening tool for assessing cognitive impairment in acutely unwell older hospitalized patients. These findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of the interRAI AC, within which the CPS2 is embedded. The interRAI AC offers the advantage of being able to accurately screen for both dementia and delirium without the need to use additional assessments, thus increasing assessment efficiency.

Structure, magnetism and colour in simple bis­(phosphine)nickel(II) dihalide complexes : an experimental and theoretical investigation

The complex [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­iodido­nickel(II), [NiI2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiI2, [dtbpe is 1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane], is bright blue-green in the solid state and in solution, but, contrary to the structure predicted for a blue or green nickel(II) bis­(phos­phine) complex, it is found to be close to square planar in the solid state. The solution structure is deduced to be similar, because the optical spectra measured in solution and in the solid state contain similar absorptions. In solution at room temperature, no 31P{1H} NMR resonance is observed, but the very small solid-state magnetic moment at temperatures down to 4 K indicates that the weak paramagnetism of this nickel(II) complex can be ascribed to temperature independent paramagnetism, and that the complex has no unpaired electrons. The red [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­chlorido­nickel(II), [NiCl2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiCl2, is very close to square planar and very weakly paramagnetic in the solid state and in solution, while the maroon [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­bromido­nickel(II), [NiBr2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiBr2, is isostructural with the diiodide in the solid state, and displays paramagnetism inter­mediate between that of the dichloride and the diiodide in the solid state and in solution. Density functional calculations demonstrate that distortion from an ideal square plane for these complexes occurs on a flat potential energy surface. The calculations reproduce the observed structures and colours, and explain the trends observed for these and similar complexes. Although theoretical investigation identified magnetic-dipole-allowed excitations that are characteristic for temperature-independent paramagnetism (TIP), theory predicts the mol­ecules to be diamagnetic.

The knowledge translation pathway for timely diagnosis of dementia

There has been significant debate about the value of screening for dementia, and the need for early diagnosis. Options include Gene testing, early risk assessment, screening, case finding and review when a patient or carer identify that they have symptoms. This paper is not focused on these early approaches to identifying people with dementia. It is focused on the period when a patient or a carer has recognised that there are some memory problems and they are seeking assistance with a diagnosis or explanation in relation to memory loss.

Molecular approaches to diagnosis and management of ovarian cancer

The recent advances in the understanding of the pathogenesis of ovarian cancer have been helpful in addressing issues in diagnosis, prognosis and management. The study of ovarian tumours by novel techniques such as immunohistochemistry, fluorescent in situ hybridisation, comparative genomic hybridisation, polymerase chain reaction and new tumour markers have aided the evaluation and application of new concepts into clinical practice. The correlation of novel surrogate tumour specific features with response to treatment and outcome in patients has defined prognostic factors which may allow the future design of tailored therapy based on a molecular profile of the tumour. These have also been used to design new approaches to therapy such as antibody targeting and gene therapy. The delineation of roles of c-erbB2, c-fms and other novel receptor kinases in the pathogenesis of ovarian cancer has led initially to the development of anti-c-erbB2 monoclonal antibody therapy. The discovery of BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes will have an impact in the diagnosis and the prevention of familial ovarian cancer. The important role played by recessive genes such as p53 in cancer has raised the possibility of restoration of gene function by gene therapy. Although the pathological diagnosis of ovarian cancer is still confirmed principally on morphological features, addition of newer investigations will increasingly be useful in addressing difficult diagnostic problems. The increasingly rapid pace of discovery of genes important in disease, makes it imperative that the evaluation of their contribution in the pathogenesis of ovarian cancer is undertaken swiftly, thus improving the overall management of patients and their outcome.

Advances in skin cancer early detection and diagnosis

OBJECTIVES: To provide an overview of 1) traditional methods of skin cancer early detection, 2) current technologies for skin cancer detection, and 3) evolving practice models of early detection. DATA SOURCES: Peer-reviewed databased articles and reviews, scholarly texts, and Web-based resources. CONCLUSION: Early detection of skin cancer through established methods or newer technologies is critical for reducing both skin cancer mortality and the overall skin cancer burden. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE: A basic knowledge of recommended skin examination guidelines and risk factors for skin cancer, traditional methods to further examine lesions that are suspicious for skin cancer and evolving detection technologies can guide patient education and skin inspection decisions.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

Improved sub-cellular resolution via simultaneous analysis of organelle proteomics data across varied experimental conditions

Spatial organisation of proteins according to their function plays an important role in the specificity of their molecular interactions. Emerging proteomics methods seek to assign proteins to sub-cellular locations by partial separation of organelles and computational analysis of protein abundance distributions among partially separated fractions. Such methods permit simultaneous analysis of unpurified organelles and promise proteome-wide localisation in scenarios wherein perturbation may prompt dynamic re-distribution. Resolving organelles that display similar behavior during a protocol designed to provide partial enrichment represents a possible shortcoming. We employ the Localisation of Organelle Proteins by Isotope Tagging (LOPIT) organelle proteomics platform to demonstrate that combining information from distinct separations of the same material can improve organelle resolution and assignment of proteins to sub-cellular locations. Two previously published experiments, whose distinct gradients are alone unable to fully resolve six known protein-organelle groupings, are subjected to a rigorous analysis to assess protein-organelle association via a contemporary pattern recognition algorithm. Upon straightforward combination of single-gradient data, we observe significant improvement in protein-organelle association via both a non-linear support vector machine algorithm and partial least-squares discriminant analysis. The outcome yields suggestions for further improvements to present organelle proteomics platforms, and a robust analytical methodology via which to associate proteins with sub-cellular organelles.

Association between postmenopausal osteoporosis and experimental periodontitis

To investigate the correlation between postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) and the pathogenesis of periodontitis, ovariectomized rats were generated and the experimental periodontitis was induced using a silk ligature. The inflammatory factors and bone metabolic markers were measured in the serum and periodontal tissues of ovariectomized rats using an automatic chemistry analyzer, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and immunohistochemistry. The bone mineral density of whole body, pelvis, and spine was analyzed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and image analysis. All data were analyzed using SPSS 13.0 statistical software. It was found that ovariectomy could upregulate the expression of interleukin- (IL-)6, the receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL), and osteoprotegerin (OPG) and downregulate IL-10 expression in periodontal tissues, which resulted in progressive alveolar bone loss in experimental periodontitis. This study indicates that changes of cytokines and bone turnover markers in the periodontal tissues of ovariectomized rats contribute to the damage of periodontal tissues.