Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Discussion of : constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation

This is a discussion of the journal article: "Construcing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation". The article and discussion have appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

A preliminary study into the environmental and economic consequences of a sugar factory depithing operation

Bagasse stockpile operations have the potential to lead to adverse environmental and social impacts. Dust releases can cause occupational health and safety concerns for factory workers and dust emissions impact on the surrounding community. Preliminary modelling showed that bagasse depithing would likely reduce the environmental risks, particularly dust emissions, associated with large-scale bagasse stockpiling operations. Dust emission properties were measured and used for dispersion modelling with favourable outcomes. Modelling showed a 70% reduction in peak ground level concentrations of PM10 dust (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) from operations on depithed bagasse stockpiles compared to similar operations on stockpiles of whole bagasse. However, the costs of a depithing operation at a sugar factory were estimated to be approximately $2.1 million in capital expenditure to process 100 000 t/y of bagasse and operating costs were 200 000 p.a. The total capital cost for a 10 000 t/y operation was approximately $1.6 million. The cost of depithing based on a discounted cash flow analysis was $5.50 per tonne of bagasse for the 100 000 t/y scenario. This may make depithing prohibitively expensive in many situations if installed exclusively as a dust control measure.

Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.

International entrepreneurship and firm performance over economic crisis

Small and medium firms (SMEs) that operate in global markets are vulnerable to external shocks in uncertain, hostile and volatile business environments given their limited resources and inexperience. In such environments entrepreneurial firms respond by making strategic choices to mitigate such vulnerabilities. This research examines one such important strategic choice – entrepreneurial posturing and its link to financial performance in Finnish SMEs during the global financial crisis. Findings suggest that the dimensions of entrepreneurial posturing have a differential effect on firm performance depending upon the severity of the business environment as well as the firm’s degree of internationalization. Implications for theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research provided.

Cents and Sustainability : Securing Our Common Future by Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures

The focus of Cents and Sustainability is to respond to the call by Dr Gro Brundtland in the seminal book Our Common Future to achieve, 'a new era of economic growth - growth that is forceful and at the same time socially and environmentally sustainable'. With the 20th anniversary of Our Common Future in 2007, it is clearly time to re-examine this important work in a modern global context. Using the framework of ‘Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures’, Cents and Sustainability investigates a range of new evidence and research in order to develop a deeper understanding of how, and under what conditions, this 'forceful sustainable growth' is possible. With an introduction by Dr Jim MacNeill (former Secretary General to the Brundtland Commission, and former Director, OECD Environment Directorate 1978 -1984), the book will carry forewords from Dr Gro Brundtland (former Chair of the World Commission on Environment and Development), Dr Rajendra Pachauri (Chief, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and joint recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC), and Dr Kenneth Ruffing (former Deputy Director and Chief Economist of the OECD Environment Directorate 2000 - 2005). Beginning with a detailed explanation of decoupling theory, along with investigation into a range of issues and barriers to its achievement, the book then focuses on informing national strategies for decoupling. Then putting this into action the book focuses on five key areas of decoupling, namely greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, freshwater extraction, waste production, and air pollution, and in each case showing compelling evidence for significant cost effective reductions in environmental pressures. The book concludes with a detailed case study of the groundbreaking application of public interest litigation to combat air pollution in Delhi, India.

Considering the economic value of natural design elements at city scale

With increasing signs of climate change and the influence of national and international carbon-related laws and agreements, governments all over the world are grappling with how to rapidly transition to low-carbon living. This includes adapting to the impacts of climate change that are very likely to be experienced due to current emission levels (including extreme weather and sea level changes), and mitigating against further growth in greenhouse gas emissions that are likely to result in further impacts. Internationally, the concept of ‘Biophilic Urbanism’, a term coined by Professors Tim Beatley and Peter Newman to refer to the use of natural elements as design features in urban landscapes, is emerging as a key component in addressing such climate change challenges in rapidly growing urban contexts. However, the economics of incorporating such options is not well understood and requires further attention to underpin a mainstreaming of biophilic urbanism. Indeed, there appears to be an ad hoc, reactionary approach to creating economic arguments for or against the design, installation or maintenance of natural elements such as green walls, green roofs, streetscapes, and parklands. With this issue in mind, this paper will overview research as part of an industry collaborative research project that considers the potential for using a number of environmental economic valuation techniques that have evolved over the last several decades in agricultural and resource economics, to systematically value the economic value of biophilic elements in the urban context. Considering existing literature on environmental economic valuation techniques, the paper highlights opportunities for creating a standardised language for valuing biophilic elements. The conclusions have implications for expanding the field of environmental economic value to support the economic evaluations and planning of the greater use of natural elements in cities. Insights are also noted for the more mature fields of agricultural and resource economics.

Embedding nature into cities – a case study of economic lessons from Singapore

Built environment design around the world faces a number of 21st Century challenges such as rising urban heat island effect and rising pollution, which are further worsened by consequences of climate change and increasing urban populations. Such challenges have caused cities around the globe to investigate options that can help to significantly reduce the environmental pressures from current and future development, requiring new areas of innovation. One such area is ‘Biophilic Urbanism’, which refers to the use of natural elements as design features in urban centres to assist efforts to address climate change issues in rapidly growing economies. Singapore is an illustration of a thriving economy that exemplifies the value of embedding nature into its built environment. The significance of urban green space has been recognised in Singapore as early as the 1960s when Lee Kuan Yew embarked on the ‘Garden City’ concept. 50 years later, Singapore has achieved its Garden City goal and is now entering a new era of sustainability, to create a ‘City in a Garden’. Although the economics of such efforts is not entirely understood, the city of Singapore has continued to pursue visions of becoming a biophilic city. Indeed, there appears to be important lessons to be learned from a city that has challenged the preconceived notion that protecting vegetation in a city is not economically viable. Hence, this paper will discuss the case study of Singapore to highlight the drivers, along with the economic considerations identified along the way. The conclusions have implications for expanding the notion of biophilic urbanism, particularly in the Australian context by discussing the lessons learned from this city. The research is part of Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre, and has been developed in collaboration with the Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute.

Viewpoint : social and economic dimensions of involving savanna communities in carbon management systems

In this paper we discuss the social, economic and institutional aspects of the development of carbon management systems within Australia's tropical savannas. Land-use values in savanna landscapes are changing as a result of changing economic markets, greater recognition of native title, and growing social demands and expectations for tourism, recreation and conservation. In addition, there is increasing interest in developing markets and policy arrangements for greenhouse gas abatement, carbon sequestration and carbon trade in savannas. We argue that for carbon management to lead to national greenhouse outcomes, attention must be paid to social, economic and institutional issues in environmental planning and policy arrangements. From an economic perspective, the financial impact of carbon management on savanna enterprises will depend on appropriate and available policy mechanisms, unit price for carbon, landscape condition, existing management strategies and abatement measurements used. Local social and cultural features of communities and regions may enhance or constrain the implementation of carbon abatement strategies, depending on how they are perceived. In terms of institutional arrangements, policies and plans must support and enable carbon management. We identify three areas that require priority investigation and adjustment: regional planning arrangements, property rights, and rules for accounting at enterprise and regional scales. We conclude that the best potential for managing for carbon will be achieved while managing for range of other natural resource management outcomes, especially where managing for carbon delivers collateral benefits to enterprises.

Modelling the economic benefits of gold standard care for chronic wounds in a community setting

Chronic leg ulcers are costly to manage for health service providers. Although evidence-based care leads to improved healing rates and reduced costs, a significant evidence-practice gap is known to exist. Lack of access to specialist skills in wound care is one reason suggested for this gap. The aim of this study was to model the change to total costs and health outcomes under two versions of health services for patients with leg ulcers: routine health services for community-living patients; and care provided by specialist wound clinics. Mean weekly treatment and health services costs were estimated from participants’ data (n=70) for the twelve months prior to their entry to a study specialist wound clinic, and prospectively for 24 weeks after entry. For the retrospective phase mean weekly costs of care were $AU130.30 (SD $12.64) and these fell to $AU53.32 (SD $6.47) for the prospective phase. Analysis at a population level suggests if 10,000 individuals receive 12 weeks of specialist evidence-based care, the cost savings are likely to be AU$9,238,800. Significant savings could be made by the adoption of evidence-based care such as that provided by the community and outpatient specialist wound clinics in this study.

India's vocational education capacity to support the anticipated economic growth

The buoyancy that the Indian economy experienced between 2000 and 2010, in spite of the global downturn of 2008, is no longer a reality. Growth projections for 2012-13 have been reassessed to 6.5 per cent. This is still higher than most other developed economies of the world (see Figure 1.1), however the growth rate is slowing. The World Bank in its recent forecasts1 expects India’s growth rates not to extend beyond 7.2 % and 7.4 % in the years 2013-14 and 2014-15, respectively. Similarly, the Planning Commission has scaled down the growth target for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) from 9% to 8%. Different reports note different rates, but the consistent message is that the projection of India’s economy is on a downward trend...

Bluetooth vehicle trajectory by fusing Bluetooth and loops : motorway travel time statistics

Loop detectors are widely used on the motorway networks where they provide point speed and traffic volumes. Models have been proposed for temporal and spatial generalization of speed for average travel time estimation. Advancement in technology provides complementary data sources such as Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS), detecting the MAC ID of the Bluetooth devices transported by the traveller. Matching the data from two BMS stations provides individual vehicle travel time. Generally, on the motorways loops are closely spaced, whereas BMS are placed few kilometres apart. In this research, we fuse BMSs and loops data to define the trajectories of the Bluetooth vehicles. The trajectories are utilised to estimate the travel time statistics between any two points along the motorway. The proposed model is tested using simulation and validated with real data from Pacific motorway, Brisbane. Comparing the model with the linear interpolation based trajectory provides significant improvements.

Barriers to sustainable economic development : the Dallas–Fort Worth experience

This article examines the scope of existing economic development activity and the motivations and perceptions of practitioners to shed light on the barriers to sustainable practice. In contrast to related fields like urban planning, the economic development literature has minimally examined how practitioners think about sustainable development and the extent to which sustainable development principles are adopted in practice. This omission is significant because economic development policies can have a notable impact on the sustainable development goals of environmental protection and social equity alongside economic growth. To capture the extent to which economic developers engage in sustainable development and the barriers that practitioners face, we study fifteen cities in the Dallas–Fort Worth region. We find that six key barriers – a conventional economic development mindset, incentive-based practice, a lack of resources, ad hoc planning, inter-regional competition, and a lack of coordinated regional planning – impede sustainable economic development in the region.

Art spaces in community and economic development : connections to neighborhoods, artists, and the cultural economy

There is growing interest in the arts in community and economic development, yet little research examines the dynamics of community-based arts institutions to inform urban planning and policy. Drawing on interviews with participants and organizers of small and midsized art spaces, the study explores the factors that influence their involvement in neighborhood revitalization and outreach, support for artistic communities, and efforts to build bridges to commercial cultural sectors. Art spaces function as a conduit for building social networks that contribute to both community revitalization and artistic development. But issues pertaining to the location, organization, and management of art spaces may limit their community and economic development potential. The article concludes with proposals to craft stronger arts-based community and economic development programs.