The politics of Twitter data

Talk of Big Data seems to be everywhere. Indeed, the apparently value-free concept of ‘data’ has seen a spectacular broadening of popular interest, shifting from the dry terminology of labcoat-wearing scientists to the buzzword du jour of marketers. In the business world, data is increasingly framed as an economic asset of critical importance, a commodity on a par with scarce natural resources (Backaitis, 2012; Rotella, 2012). It is social media that has most visibly brought the Big Data moment to media and communication studies, and beyond it, to the social sciences and humanities. Social media data is one of the most important areas of the rapidly growing data market (Manovich, 2012; Steele, 2011). Massive valuations are attached to companies that directly collect and profit from social media data, such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as to resellers and analytics companies like Gnip and DataSift. The expectation attached to the business models of these companies is that their privileged access to data and the resulting valuable insights into the minds of consumers and voters will make them irreplaceable in the future. Analysts and consultants argue that advanced statistical techniques will allow the detection of ongoing communicative events (natural disasters, political uprisings) and the reliable prediction of future ones (electoral choices, consumption)...

Silver absorption on burns after the application of Acticoat : data from pediatric patients and a porcine burn model

Silver dressings have been widely used to successfully prevent burn wound infection and sepsis. However, a few case studies have reported the functional abnormality and failure of vital organs, possibly caused by silver deposits. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum silver level in the pediatric burn population and also in several internal organs in a porcine burn model after the application of Acticoat. A total of 125 blood samples were collected from 46 pediatric burn patients. Thirty-six patients with a mean of 13.4% TBSA burns had a mean peak serum silver level of 114 microg/L, whereas 10 patients with a mean of 1.85% TBSA burns had an undetectable level of silver (<5.4 microg/L). Overall, serum silver levels were closely related to burn sizes. However, the highest serum silver was 735 microg/L in a 15-month-old toddler with 10% TBSA burns and the second highest was 367 microg/L in a 3-year old with 28% TBSA burns. In a porcine model with 2% TBSA burns, the mean peak silver level was 38 microg/L at 2 to 3 weeks after application of Acticoat and was then significantly reduced to an almost undetectable level at 6 weeks. Of a total of four pigs, silver was detected in all four livers (1.413 microg/g) and all four hearts (0.342 microg/g), three of four kidneys (1.113 microg/g), and two of four brains (0.402 microg/g). This result demonstrated that although variable, the level of serum silver was positively associated with the size of burns, and significant amounts of silver were deposited in internal organs in pigs with only 2% TBSA burns, after application of Acticoat.

Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

A comparative study of the semi-elastic and fully-elastic MapReduce models

MapReduce is a computation model for processing large data sets in parallel on large clusters of machines, in a reliable, fault-tolerant manner. A MapReduce computation is broken down into a number of map tasks and reduce tasks, which are performed by so called mappers and reducers, respectively. The placement of the mappers and reducers on the machines directly affects the performance and cost of the MapReduce computation in cloud computing. From the computational point of view, the mappers/reducers placement problem is a generation of the classical bin packing problem, which is NP-complete. Thus, in this paper we propose a new heuristic algorithm for the mappers/reducers placement problem in cloud computing and evaluate it by comparing with other several heuristics on solution quality and computation time by solving a set of test problems with various characteristics. The computational results show that our heuristic algorithm is much more efficient than the other heuristics and it can obtain a better solution in a reasonable time. Furthermore, we verify the effectiveness of our heuristic algorithm by comparing the mapper/reducer placement for a benchmark problem generated by our heuristic algorithm with a conventional mapper/reducer placement which puts a fixed number of mapper/reducer on each machine. The comparison results show that the computation using our mapper/reducer placement is much cheaper than the computation using the conventional placement while still satisfying the computation deadline.

Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomized trials of chemotherapy plus cetuximab as first-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES: Four randomized phase II/III trials investigated the addition of cetuximab to platinum-based, first-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A meta-analysis was performed to examine the benefit/risk ratio for the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The meta-analysis included individual patient efficacy data from 2018 patients and individual patient safety data from 1970 patients comprising respectively the combined intention-to-treat and safety populations of the four trials. The effect of adding cetuximab to chemotherapy was measured by hazard ratios (HRs) obtained using a Cox proportional hazards model and odds ratios calculated by logistic regression. Survival rates at 1 year were calculated. All applied models were stratified by trial. Tests on heterogeneity of treatment effects across the trials and sensitivity analyses were performed for all endpoints. RESULTS: The meta-analysis demonstrated that the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival (HR 0.88, p=0.009, median 10.3 vs 9.4 months), progression-free survival (HR 0.90, p=0.045, median 4.7 vs 4.5 months) and response (odds ratio 1.46, p<0.001, overall response rate 32.2% vs 24.4%) compared with chemotherapy alone. The safety profile of chemotherapy plus cetuximab in the meta-analysis population was confirmed as manageable. Neither trials nor patient subgroups defined by key baseline characteristics showed significant heterogeneity for any endpoint. CONCLUSION: The addition of cetuximab to platinum-based, first-line chemotherapy for advanced NSCLC significantly improved outcome for all efficacy endpoints with an acceptable safety profile, indicating a favorable benefit/risk ratio.

Data innovation and open access [Blog]

After nearly fifteen years of the open access (OA) movement and its hard-fought struggle for a more open scholarly communication system, publishers are realizing that business models can be both open and profitable. Making journal articles available on an OA license is becoming an accepted strategy for maximizing the value of content to both research communities and the businesses that serve them. The first blog in this two-part series celebrating Data Innovation Day looks at the role that data-innovation is playing in the shift to open access for journal articles.

A deconvolution method for deriving the transit time spectrum for ultrasound propagation through cancellous bone replica models

The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone. It has recently been proposed that the ultrasound wave propagation can be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays. This concept approximates the detected transmission signal to be the superposition of all sonic rays that travel directly from transmitting to receiving transducer. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. An ultrasound transit time spectrum describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface of the receiving ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to provide a proof of concept that a transit time spectrum may be derived from digital deconvolution of input and output ultrasound signals. We have applied the active-set method deconvolution algorithm to determine the ultrasound transit time spectra in the three orthogonal directions of four cancellous bone replica samples and have compared experimental data with the prediction from the computer simulation. The agreement between experimental and predicted ultrasound transit time spectrum analyses derived from Bland–Altman analysis ranged from 92% to 99%, thereby supporting the concept of parallel sonic rays for ultrasound propagation in cancellous bone. In addition to further validation of the parallel sonic ray concept, this technique offers the opportunity to consider quantitative characterisation of the material and structural properties of cancellous bone, not previously available utilising ultrasound.

A data analytics case study assessing factors affecting pavement deflection values

Road networks are a national critical infrastructure. The road assets need to be monitored and maintained efficiently as their conditions deteriorate over time. The condition of one of such assets, road pavement, plays a major role in the road network maintenance programmes. Pavement conditions depend upon many factors such as pavement types, traffic and environmental conditions. This paper presents a data analytics case study for assessing the factors affecting the pavement deflection values measured by the traffic speed deflectometer (TSD) device. The analytics process includes acquisition and integration of data from multiple sources, data pre-processing, mining useful information from them and utilising data mining outputs for knowledge deployment. Data mining techniques are able to show how TSD outputs vary in different roads, traffic and environmental conditions. The generated data mining models map the TSD outputs to some classes and define correction factors for each class.

Identification of reduced models of power system areas using phasor measurement units

In this paper an approach is presented for identification of a reduced model for coherent areas in power systems using phasor measurement units to represent the inter-area oscillations of the system. The generators which are coherent in a wide range of operating conditions form the areas in power systems and the reduced model is obtained by representing each area by an equivalent machine. The reduced nonlinear model is then identified based on the data obtained from measurement units. The simulation is performed on three test systems and the obtained results show high accuracy of identification process.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

A stochastic neighborhood conditional autoregressive model for spatial data

A spatial process observed over a lattice or a set of irregular regions is usually modeled using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model. The neighborhoods within a CAR model are generally formed deterministically using the inter-distances or boundaries between the regions. An extension of CAR model is proposed in this article where the selection of the neighborhood depends on unknown parameter(s). This extension is called a Stochastic Neighborhood CAR (SNCAR) model. The resulting model shows flexibility in accurately estimating covariance structures for data generated from a variety of spatial covariance models. Specific examples are illustrated using data generated from some common spatial covariance functions as well as real data concerning radioactive contamination of the soil in Switzerland after the Chernobyl accident.

Geometric sensitivity of patient-specific finite element models of the spine to variability in user-selected anatomical landmarks

Software to create individualised finite element (FE) models of the osseoligamentous spine using pre-operative computed tomography (CT) data-sets for spinal surgery patients has recently been developed. This study presents a geometric sensitivity analysis of this software to assess the effect of intra-observer variability in user-selected anatomical landmarks. User-selected landmarks on the osseous anatomy were defined from CT data-sets for three scoliosis patients and these landmarks were used to reconstruct patient-specific anatomy of the spine and ribcage using parametric descriptions. The intra-observer errors in landmark co-ordinates for these anatomical landmarks were calculated. FE models of the spine and ribcage were created using the reconstructed anatomy for each patient and these models were analysed for a loadcase simulating clinical flexibility assessment. The intra-observer error in the anatomical measurements was low in comparison to the initial dimensions, with the exception of the angular measurements for disc wedge and zygapophyseal joint (z-joint) orientation and disc height. This variability suggested that CT resolution may influence such angular measurements, particularly for small anatomical features, such as the z-joints, and may also affect disc height. The results of the FE analysis showed low variation in the model predictions for spinal curvature with the mean intra-observer variability substantially less than the accepted error in clinical measurement. These findings demonstrate that intra-observer variability in landmark point selection has minimal effect on the subsequent FE predictions for a clinical loadcase.

A Matlab toolbox for parametric identification of radiation-force models of ships and offshore structures

This article describes a Matlab toolbox for parametric identification of fluid-memory models associated with the radiation forces ships and offshore structures. Radiation forces are a key component of force-to-motion models used in simulators, motion control designs, and also for initial performance evaluation of wave-energy converters. The software described provides tools for preparing non-parmatric data and for identification with automatic model-order detection. The identification problem is considered in the frequency domain.

Joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid-memory models of marine structures

This paper addresses the problem of joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid memory models of marine structures from finite frequency data. This problem is relevant for cases where the code used to compute the hydrodynamic coefficients of the marine structure does not give the infinite-frequency added mass. This case is typical of codes based on 2D-potential theory since most 3D-potential-theory codes solve the boundary value associated with the infinite frequency. The method proposed in this paper presents a simpler alternative approach to other methods previously presented in the literature. The advantage of the proposed method is that the same identification procedure can be used to identify the fluid-memory models with or without having access to the infinite-frequency added mass coefficient. Therefore, it provides an extension that puts the two identification problems into the same framework. The method also exploits the constraints related to relative degree and low-frequency asymptotic values of the hydrodynamic coefficients derived from the physics of the problem, which are used as prior information to refine the obtained models.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.