Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The dilemma of international capital tax competition in the presence of public capital and endogenous growth

Using an OLG-model with endogenous growth and public capital we show, that an international capital tax competition leads to inefficiently low tax rates, and as a consequence to lower welfare levels and growth rates. Each national government has an incentive to reduce the capital income tax rates in its effort to ensure that this policy measure increases the domestic private capital stock, domestic income and domestic economic growth. This effort is justified as long as only one country applies this policy. However, if all countries follow this path then all of them will be made worse off in the long run.

Experimental measurement of the mechanical properties of carotid atherothrombotic plaque fibrous cap

Eleven carotid atherothrombotic plaque samples were harvested from patients. Three samples that were highly calcified were discarded, while eight yielded results. The elastic properties of the material were estimated by fitting the measured indentation response to finite element simulations. The methodology was refined and its accuracy quantified using a synthetic rubber. The neo-Hookean form of the material model gave a good fit to the measured response of the tissue. The inferred shear modulus μ was found to be in the range 7-100 kPa, with a median value of 11 kPa. A review of published materials data showed a wide range of material properties for human atherothrombotic tissue. The effects of anisotropy and time dependency in these published results were highlighted. The present measurements were comparable to the static radial compression tests of Lee et al, 1991 [Structure-dependent dynamic behaviour of fibrous caps from human atherosclerotic plaques. Circulation 83, 1764-1770].

Simulation of the interaction between blood flow and atherosclerotic plaque

It has been well accepted that over 50% of cerebral ischemic events are the result of rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Such strokes are potentially preventable by carotid interventions. Selection of patients for intervention is currently based on the severity of carotid luminal stenosis. It has been, however, widely accepted that luminal stenosis alone may not be an adequate predictor of risk. To evaluate the effects of degree of luminal stenosis and plaque morphology on plaque stability, we used a coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with flow-plaque interaction simulation to perform flow and stress/strain analysis for stenotic artery with a plaque. The Navier-Stokes equations in the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation were used as the governing equations for the fluid. The Ogden strain energy function was used for both the fibrous cap and the lipid pool. The plaque Principal stresses and flow conditions were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 90%. Severe stenosis led to high flow velocities and high shear stresses, but a low or even negative pressure at the throat of the stenosis. Higher degree of stenosis and thinner fibrous cap led to larger plaque stresses, and a 50% decrease of fibrous cap thickness resulted in a 200% increase of maximum stress. This model suggests that fibrous cap thickness is critically related to plaque vulnerability and that, even within presence of moderate stenosis, may play an important role in the future risk stratification of those patients when identified in vivo using high resolution MR imaging.

Trends in US contact lens prescribing 2002-2014

Purpose To document contact lens prescribing patterns in the United States between 2002 and 2014. Methods A survey of contact lens prescribing trends was conducted each year between 2002 and 2014, inclusive. Randomly selected contact lens practitioners were asked to provide information relating to 10 consecutive contact lens fits between January and March each year. Results Over the 13-year survey period, 1650 survey forms were received from US practitioners representing details of 7702 contact lens fits. The mean (±SD) age of lens wearers was 33.6 (±15.2) years, of whom 65.2% were female. Rigid lens new fits decreased from 13.0% in 2002 to 9.4% in 2014. Across this period, silicone hydrogels have replaced mid water contact lens hydrogels as the soft lens material of choice. Toric lenses represented about 25 to 30% of all soft lens fits. Multifocal soft lenses are generally preferred to monovision. Daily disposable lens fits have recently increased, and in 2014, they represented 27.1% of all soft lens fits. Most lenses are prescribed on 1 to 2 weekly or monthly lens replacement regimen. Extended wear remains a minority lens wearing modality. The vast majority of those wearing reusable lenses use multipurpose lens care solutions. Lenses are mostly worn 7 d/wk. Conclusions This survey has revealed prescribing trends and preferences in the United States over the past 13 years.

Moving European research on work and ageing forward: Overview and agenda

This paper summarizes the state of affairs of European research on ageing and work. After a close inspection of the age construct, an overview is presented of research in four areas: the relationship between age and HR-policies, early retirement, age and performance/employability, age and health/well-being. The overview results in a research agenda on work and ageing and in recommendations for practice.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

Economics of tourism & growth for small island countries

We theoretically analyze the impact of changes in foreign income from tourism source countries on the growth of tourism dependent small island economies. Using a general theoretical construct, we attempt to answer the question of how price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of tourist and the degree of competition in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that politicians may consider applying policies which lead to a competitive environment in the service sector to maximize growth and the consequent labor income share.

A potent nonporphyrin class of photodynamic therapeutic agent: Cellular localisation, cytotoxic potential and influence of hypoxia

We have developed a totally new class of nonporphyrin photodynamic therapeutic agents with a specific focus on two lead candidates azadipyrromethene (ADPM)01 and ADPM06. Confocal laser scanning microscopy imaging showed that these compounds are exclusively localised to the cytosolic compartment, with specific accumulation in the endoplasmic reticulum and to a lesser extent in the mitochondria. Light-induced toxicity assays, carried out over a broad range of human tumour cell lines, displayed EC50 values in the micro-molar range for ADPM01 and nano-molar range for ADPM06, with no discernable activity bias for a specific cell type. Strikingly, the more active agent, ADPM06, even retained significant activity under hypoxic conditions. Both photosensitisers showed low to nondeterminable dark toxicity. Flow cytometric analysis revealed that ADPM01 and ADPM06 were highly effective at inducing apoptosis as a mode of cell death. The photophysical and biological characteristics of these PDT agents suggest that they have potential for the development of new anticancer therapeutics. © 2005 Cancer Research UK.

Combinatorial Design of Secure Lightweight Data Dispersal Schemes (Work in Progress)

Dispersing a data object into a set of data shares is an elemental stage in distributed communication and storage systems. In comparison to data replication, data dispersal with redundancy saves space and bandwidth. Moreover, dispersing a data object to distinct communication links or storage sites limits adversarial access to whole data and tolerates loss of a part of data shares. Existing data dispersal schemes have been proposed mostly based on various mathematical transformations on the data which induce high computation overhead. This paper presents a novel data dispersal scheme where each part of a data object is replicated, without encoding, into a subset of data shares according to combinatorial design theory. Particularly, data parts are mapped to points and data shares are mapped to lines of a projective plane. Data parts are then distributed to data shares using the point and line incidence relations in the plane so that certain subsets of data shares collectively possess all data parts. The presented scheme incorporates combinatorial design theory with inseparability transformation to achieve secure data dispersal at reduced computation, communication and storage costs. Rigorous formal analysis and experimental study demonstrate significant cost-benefits of the presented scheme in comparison to existing methods.

Surface chemistry, dispersion behavior, and slip casting of Ti 3AlC2 suspensions

The surface chemistry and dispersion properties of aqueous Ti 3AlC2 suspension were studied in terms of hydrolysis, adsorption, electrokinetic, and rheological measurements. The Ti 3AlC2 particle had complex surface hydroxyl groups, such as ≡Ti-OH,=Al-OH, and -OTi-(OH)2, etc. The surface charging of the Ti3AlC2 particle and the ion environment of suspensions were governed by these surface groups, which thus strongly influenced the stability of Ti3AlC2 suspensions. PAA dispersant was added into the Ti3AlC2 suspension to depress the hydrolysis of the surface groups by the adsorption protection mechanism and to increase the stability of the suspension by the steric effect. Ti3AlC2 suspensions with 2.0 dwb% PAA had an excellent stability at pH=∼5 and presented the characteristics of Newtonian fluid. Based on the well-dispersed suspension, dense Ti3AlC2 materials were obtained by slip casting and after pressureless sintering. This work provides a feasible forming method for the engineering applications of MAX-phase ceramics, wherein complex shapes, large dimensions, or controlled microstructures are needed.