Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

The public health challenges of mental health problems and associated difficulties

Mental health is a major global health issue. Neuropsychiatric conditions are the most significant cause of disability worldwide, and account for 14% of the global burden of disease. Depression in particular places a huge burden on society, with the Global Burden of Disease 2000 study listing it as the fourth leading cause of disease burden worldwide and the largest non-fatal disease burden. In Australia, mental disorders are startlingly common and related to significant disability. The 2007 National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing revealed that the lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 45%, and within the last 12 months 20% of Australians met criteria for a mental disorder. Many of the articles in this issue explore mental health issues in young people. Indeed, mental health issues account for a large proportion of the disease burden in young people. Across the globe, mental health disorders caused the greatest number of years lost to disability(YLDs) amongst young people aged 10 to 24 years (45% of total YLDs). Depression caused the highest number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across this age group, accounting for 8. 2% of DALYs alone.6 It is clear that mental health is a critical area of focus for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers.

Organisational culture in airworthiness management programs : developing a measurement model

All civil and private aircraft are required to comply with the airworthiness standards set by their national airworthiness authority and throughout their operational life must be in a condition of safe operation. Aviation accident data shows that over twenty percent of all fatal accidents in aviation are due to airworthiness issues, specifically aircraft mechanical failures. Ultimately it is the responsibility of each registered operator to ensure that their aircraft remain in a condition of safe operation, and this is done through both effective management of airworthiness activities and the effective program governance of safety outcomes. Typically, the projects within these airworthiness management programs are focused on acquiring, modifying and maintaining the aircraft as a capability supporting the business. Program governance provides the structure through which the goals and objectives of airworthiness programs are set along with the means of attaining them. Whilst the principal causes of failures in many programs can be traced to inadequate program governance, many of the failures in large scale projects can have their root causes in the organisational culture and more specifically in the organisational processes related to decision-making. This paper examines the primary theme of project and program based enterprises, and introduces a model for measuring organisational culture in airworthiness management programs using measures drawn from 211 respondents in Australian airline programs. The paper describes the theoretical perspectives applied to modifying an original model to specifically focus it on measuring the organisational culture of programs for managing airworthiness; identifying the most important factors needed to explain the relationship between the measures collected, and providing a description of the nature of these factors. The paper concludes by identifying a model that best describes the organisational culture data collected from seven airworthiness management programs.

A framework for automated identification of attack scenarios on IT infrastructures

Due to increased complexity, scale, and functionality of information and telecommunication (IT) infrastructures, every day new exploits and vulnerabilities are discovered. These vulnerabilities are most of the time used by ma¬licious people to penetrate these IT infrastructures for mainly disrupting business or stealing intellectual pro¬perties. Current incidents prove that it is not sufficient anymore to perform manual security tests of the IT infra¬structure based on sporadic security audits. Instead net¬works should be continuously tested against possible attacks. In this paper we present current results and challenges towards realizing automated and scalable solutions to identify possible attack scenarios in an IT in¬frastructure. Namely, we define an extensible frame¬work which uses public vulnerability databases to identify pro¬bable multi-step attacks in an IT infrastructure, and pro¬vide recommendations in the form of patching strategies, topology changes, and configuration updates.

Slid pairs in the initialisation of the A5/1 stream cipher

A5/1 is a shift register based stream cipher which uses a majority clocking rule to update its registers. It is designed to provide privacy for the GSM system. In this paper, we analyse the initialisation process of A5/1. We demonstrate a sliding property of the A5/1 cipher, where every valid internal state is also a legitimate loaded state and multiple key-IV pairs produce phase shifted keystream sequences. We describe a possible ciphertext only attack based on this property.

A safe system-based approach to selection of clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside treatments

On average, 560 fatal run-off-road crashes occur annually in Australia and 135 in New Zealand. In addition, there are more than 14,000 run-off-road crashes causing injuries each year across both countries. In rural areas, run-off-road casualty crashes constitute 50-60% of all casualty crashes. Their severity is particularly high with more than half of those involved sustaining fatal or serious injuries. This paper reviews the existing approach to roadside hazard risk assessment, selection of clear zones and hazard treatments. It proposes a modified approach to roadside safety evaluation and management. It is a methodology based on statistical modelling of run-off-road casualty crashes, and application of locally developed crash modification factors and severity indices. Clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside design/treatment options are evaluated with a view to minimise fatal and serious injuries – the key Safe System objective. The paper concludes with a practical demonstration of the proposed approach. The paper is based on findings from a four-year Austroads research project into improving roadside safety in the Safe System context.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The hyperthermic patient

Concepts used in this chapter include: Thermoregulation:- Thermoregulation refers to the body’s sophisticated, multi-system regulation of core body temperature. This hierarchical system extends from highly thermo-sensitive neurons in the preoptic region of the brain proximate to the rostral hypothalamus, down to the brain stem and spinal cord. Coupled with receptors in the skin and spine, both central and peripheral information on body temperature is integrated to inform and activate the homeostatic mechanisms which maintain our core temperature at 37oC1. Hyperthermia:- An imbalance between the metabolic and external heat accumulated in the body and the loss of heat from the body2. Exertional heat stroke:- A disorder of excessive heat production coupled with insufficient heat dissipation which occurs in un-acclimated individuals who are engaging in over-exertion in hot and humid conditions. This phenomenon includes central nervous system dysfunction and critical dysfunction to all organ systems including renal, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and hepatic functions. Non-exertional heat stroke:- In contrast to exertional heatstroke as a consequence of high heat production during strenuous exercise, non-exertional heatstroke results from prolonged exposure to high ambient temperature. The elderly, those with chronic health conditions and children are particularly susceptible.3 Rhabdomylosis:- An acute, sometimes fatal disease characterised by destruction of skeletal muscle. In exertional heat stroke, rhabdomylosis occurs in the context of strenuous exercise when mechanical and/or metabolic stress damages the skeletal muscle, causing elevated serum creatine kinease. Associated with this is the potential development of hyperkalemia, myoglobinuria and renal failure. Malignant hyperthermia:- Malignant hyperthermia is “an inherited subclinical myopathy characterised by a hypermetabolic reaction during anaesthesia. The reaction is related to skeletal muscle calcium dysregulation triggered by volatile inhaled anaesthetics and/or succinylcholine.”4 Presentation includes skeletal muscle rigidity, mixed metabolic and respiratory acidosis, tachycardia, hyperpyrexia, rhabdomylosis, hyperkalaemia, elevated serum creatine kinease, multi-organ failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation and death.5

A lightweight biometric signature scheme for user authentication over networks

We introduce a lightweight biometric solution for user authentication over networks using online handwritten signatures. The algorithm proposed is based on a modified Hausdorff distance and has favorable characteristics such as low computational cost and minimal training requirements. Furthermore, we investigate an information theoretic model for capacity and performance analysis for biometric authentication which brings additional theoretical insights to the problem. A fully functional proof-of-concept prototype that relies on commonly available off-the-shelf hardware is developed as a client-server system that supports Web services. Initial experimental results show that the algorithm performs well despite its low computational requirements and is resilient against over-the-shoulder attacks.

Design and modeling of collaboration architecture for security

Threats against computer networks evolve very fast and require more and more complex measures. We argue that teams respectively groups with a common purpose for intrusion detection and prevention improve the measures against rapid propagating attacks similar to the concept of teams solving complex tasks known from field of work sociology. Collaboration in this sense is not easy task especially for heterarchical environments. We propose CIMD (collaborative intrusion and malware detection) as a security overlay framework to enable cooperative intrusion detection approaches. Objectives and associated interests are used to create detection groups for exchange of security-related data. In this work, we contribute a tree-oriented data model for device representation in the scope of security. We introduce an algorithm for the formation of detection groups, show realization strategies for the system and conduct vulnerability analysis. We evaluate the benefit of CIMD by simulation and probabilistic analysis.

An Android application sandbox system for suspicious software detection

Smartphones are steadily gaining popularity, creating new application areas as their capabilities increase in terms of computational power, sensors and communication. Emerging new features of mobile devices give opportunity to new threats. Android is one of the newer operating systems targeting smartphones. While being based on a Linux kernel, Android has unique properties and specific limitations due to its mobile nature. This makes it harder to detect and react upon malware attacks if using conventional techniques. In this paper, we propose an Android Application Sandbox (AASandbox) which is able to perform both static and dynamic analysis on Android programs to automatically detect suspicious applications. Static analysis scans the software for malicious patterns without installing it. Dynamic analysis executes the application in a fully isolated environment, i.e. sandbox, which intervenes and logs low-level interactions with the system for further analysis. Both the sandbox and the detection algorithms can be deployed in the cloud, providing a fast and distributed detection of suspicious software in a mobile software store akin to Google's Android Market. Additionally, AASandbox might be used to improve the efficiency of classical anti-virus applications available for the Android operating system.

Collaborative intrusion detection framework : characteristics, adversarial opportunities and countermeasures

Complex Internet attacks may come from multiple sources, and target multiple networks and technologies. Nevertheless, Collaborative Intrusion Detection Systems (CIDS) emerges as a promising solution by using information from multiple sources to gain a better understanding of objective and impact of complex Internet attacks. CIDS also help to cope with classical problems of Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) such as zero-day attacks, high false alarm rates and architectural challenges, e. g., centralized designs exposing the Single-Point-of-Failure. Improved complexity on the other hand gives raise to new exploitation opportunities for adversaries. The contribution of this paper is twofold. We first investigate related research on CIDS to identify the common building blocks and to understand vulnerabilities of the Collaborative Intrusion Detection Framework (CIDF). Second, we focus on the problem of anonymity preservation in a decentralized intrusion detection related message exchange scheme. We use techniques from design theory to provide multi-path peer-to-peer communication scheme where the adversary can not perform better than guessing randomly the originator of an alert message.

A generic framework and runtime environment for development and evaluation of behavioral biometrics solutions

Increasing use of computerized systems in our daily lives creates new adversarial opportunities for which complex mechanisms are exploited to mend the rapid development of new attacks. Behavioral Biometrics appear as one of the promising response to these attacks. But it is a relatively new research area, specific frameworks for evaluation and development of behavioral biometrics solutions could not be found yet. In this paper we present a conception of a generic framework and runtime environment which will enable researchers to develop, evaluate and compare their behavioral biometrics solutions with repeatable experiments under the same conditions with the same data.

Effects of average speed enforcement on speed compliance and crashes : a review of the literature

Average speed enforcement is a relatively new approach gaining popularity throughout Europe and Australia. This paper reviews the evidence regarding the impact of this approach on vehicle speeds, crashes rates and a number of additional road safety and public health outcomes. The economic and practical viability of the approach as a road safety countermeasure is also explored. A literature review, with an international scope, of both published and grey literature was conducted. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest a number of road safety benefits associated with average speed enforcement, including high rates of compliance with speed limits, reductions in average and 85th percentile speeds and reduced speed variability between vehicles. Moreover, the approach has been demonstrated to be particularly effective in reducing excessive speeding behaviour. Reductions in crash rates have also been reported in association with average speed enforcement, particularly in relation to fatal and serious injury crashes. In addition, the approach has been shown to improve traffic flow, reduce vehicle emissions and has also been associated with high levels of public acceptance. Average speed enforcement offers a greater network-wide approach to managing speeds that reduces the impact of time and distance halo effects associated with other automated speed enforcement approaches. Although comparatively expensive it represents a highly reliable approach to speed enforcement that produces considerable returns on investment through reduced social and economic costs associated with crashes.

Framework for evaluating collaborative intrusion detection systems

Securing IT infrastructures of our modern lives is a challenging task because of their increasing complexity, scale and agile nature. Monolithic approaches such as using stand-alone firewalls and IDS devices for protecting the perimeter cannot cope with complex malwares and multistep attacks. Collaborative security emerges as a promising approach. But, research results in collaborative security are not mature, yet, and they require continuous evaluation and testing. In this work, we present CIDE, a Collaborative Intrusion Detection Extension for the network security simulation platform ( NeSSi 2 ). Built-in functionalities include dynamic group formation based on node preferences, group-internal communication, group management and an approach for handling the infection process for malware-based attacks. The CIDE simulation environment provides functionalities for easy implementation of collaborating nodes in large-scale setups. We evaluate the group communication mechanism on the one hand and provide a case study and evaluate our collaborative security evaluation platform in a signature exchange scenario on the other.