Essays on technology adoption under uncertainty, globalization and economic growth

This thesis examines how the initial institutional and technological aspects of the economy and the reforms that alter these aspects influence long run growth and development. These issues are addressed in the framework of stochastic endogenous growth models and an empirical framework. The thesis is able to explain why developing nations exhibit diverse growth and inequality patterns. Consequently, the thesis raises a number of policy implications regarding how these nations can improve their economic outcomes.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Social influences and the physical activity intentions of parents of young-children families: An extended Theory of Planned Behavior Approach

Evidence within Australia and internationally suggests parenthood as a risk factor for inactivity; however, research into understanding parental physical activity is scarce. Given that active parents can create active families and social factors are important for parents’ decision making, the authors investigated a range of social influences on parents’ intentions to be physically active. Parents (N = 580; 288 mothers and 292 fathers) of children younger than 5 years completed an extended Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire either online or paper based. For both genders, attitude, control factors, group norms, friend general support, and an active parent identity predicted intentions, with social pressure and family support further predicting mothers’ intentions and active others further predicting fathers’ intentions. Attention to these factors and those specific to the genders may improve parents’ intentions to be physically active, thus maximizing the benefits to their own health and the healthy lifestyle practices for other family members.

Predicting the retention of first-time donors using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior

BACKGROUND: Donor retention is vital to blood collection agencies. Past research has highlighted the importance of early career behavior for long-term donor retention, yet research investigating the determinants of early donor behavior is scarce. Using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), this study sought to identify the predictors of first-time blood donors' early career retention. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: First-time donors (n = 256) completed three surveys on blood donation. The standard TPB predictors and self-identity as a donor were assessed 3 weeks (Time 1) and at 4 months (Time 2) after an initial donation. Path analyses examined the utility of the extended TPB to predict redonation at 4 and 8 months after initial donation. RESULTS: The extended TPB provided a good fit to the data. Post-Time 1 and 2 behavior was consistently predicted by intention to redonate. Further, intention was predicted by attitudes, perceived control, and self-identity (Times 1 and 2). Donors' intentions to redonate at Time 1 were the strongest predictor of intention to donate at Time 2, while donors' behavior at Time 1 strengthened self-identity as a blood donor at Time 2. CONCLUSION: An extended TPB framework proved efficacious in revealing the determinants of first-time donor retention in an initial 8-month period. The results suggest that collection agencies should intervene to bolster donors' attitudes, perceived control, and identity as a donor during this crucial post–first donation period.

I’m friends with Louie the Fly, not Mortein : Conceptualising the new brand relationships on social media

Spokes-characters are ‘...animated beings or objects, created to promote a product, service or idea’ (Phillips 1996, p.155). They were first used in the late 1800s when they emerged as registered trademarks, but the use of spokes-characters for marketing communications has since grown, owing to their ability to remind consumers about a product, transfer positive associations to a brand, and give a corporate company a more ‘personal’ face (Callcott and Lee 1995). One example is the Michelin Man, who has served as spokes-character for Michelin tyres since 1898, after starting out in print advertising. Spokes-characters have become important brand representatives, no longer seen as simply entertaining cartoons featured in television and magazine advertisements. Corporations have now extended their use to interactive, social media platforms, where a consumer can be ‘friends’ with a spokes-character via Facebook, read their comments on the latest iPhone release through Twitter, and watch their family histories being documented on YouTube (see Figure 1). The interactions that consumers once had with two-dimensional spokes-characters have undergone significant transformation in the digital space. With spokes-character Facebook pages achieving significant numbers of ‘likes’ and interactions with consumers, one question concerns whether this strategy is creating characters that are more engaging than the brands they represent, and what impact this has on brand outcomes.

The 4C spectrum of fundamental behavioral relations for concurrent systems

The design of concurrent software systems, in particular process-aware information systems, involves behavioral modeling at various stages. Recently, approaches to behavioral analysis of such systems have been based on declarative abstractions defined as sets of behavioral relations. However, these relations are typically defined in an ad-hoc manner. In this paper, we address the lack of a systematic exploration of the fundamental relations that can be used to capture the behavior of concurrent systems, i.e., co-occurrence, conflict, causality, and concurrency. Besides the definition of the spectrum of behavioral relations, which we refer to as the 4C spectrum, we also show that our relations give rise to implication lattices. We further provide operationalizations of the proposed relations, starting by proposing techniques for computing relations in unlabeled systems, which are then lifted to become applicable in the context of labeled systems, i.e., systems in which state transitions have semantic annotations. Finally, we report on experimental results on efficiency of the proposed computations.

Virtual worlds in Australian and New Zealand higher education : remembering the past, understanding the present and imagining the future

3D virtual reality, including the current generation of multi-user virtual worlds, has had a long history of use in education and training, and it experienced a surge of renewed interest with the advent of Second Life in 2003. What followed shortly after were several years marked by considerable hype around the use of virtual worlds for teaching, learning and research in higher education. For the moment, uptake of the technology seems to have plateaued, with academics either maintaining the status quo and continuing to use virtual worlds as they have previously done or choosing to opt out altogether. This paper presents a brief review of the use of virtual worlds in the Australian and New Zealand higher education sector in the past and reports on its use in the sector at the present time, based on input from members of the Australian and New Zealand Virtual Worlds Working Group. It then adopts a forward-looking perspective amid the current climate of uncertainty, musing on future directions and offering suggestions for potential new applications in light of recent technological developments and innovations in the area.

The legitimacy disconnect: Exploring the why and how of CSR communication

Whilst there is a growing body of research considering corporate social responsibility (CSR) communication, calls have been made to consider the ‘how’ of CSR communication (Maon, Lindgreen, & Swaen, 2010). The challenge with exploring this however, is that communication research has largely been criticised for failing to consider the macro-phenomena impacting communication (Jones, Watson, Gardner, & Gallois, 2004; Lammers & Barbour, 2006). As such, limited attention has been given to who organisations need to indicate their responsiveness to in relation to CSR, and in turn, why they communicate about certain activities in their CSR reports. Without exploring these ideas, and hence, gaining an understanding of the macro-phenomena impacting CSR communication, we limit our understanding of the ‘how’ of CSR communication. As such, this study sought to explore both the why of CSR communication, and in turn, the implications this may have for the how of CSR communication. To do this, this study drew on the notions of institutional theory, legitimacy, and rhetoric, and explored propositions drawn from these concepts to consider the why and how of CSR communication. Extended abstract attached

Perceptions of land-use uncertainty in Queensland's resource-based regions

Some of Queensland's regions are experiencing rapid changes related to the recent and growing capacity to more effectively exploit significant energy sources. These changes have triggered land-use conflicts between the mining sector and other economic sectors, mainly agriculture. These conflicts fuel existing uncertainty surrounding the current and future economic, social and environmental impacts of extractive industries. This paper explores the concept of uncertainty as it applies to planning for resource-based regions through a scoping analysis of regional stakeholders' perceptions of land-use uncertainty. It then investigates solutions to alleviate such an issue.

Testing an extended theory of planned behavior to predict young people's intentions to join a bone marrow donor registry

An extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) was used to understand the factors, particularly control perceptions and affective reactions, given conflicting findings in previous research, informing younger people's intentions to join a bone marrow registry. Participants (N  = 174) completed attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control (PBC), moral norm, anticipated regret, self-identity, and intention items for registering. The extended TPB (except PBC) explained 67.2% of variance in intention. Further testing is needed as to the volitional nature of registering. Moral norm, anticipated regret, and self-identity are likely intervention targets for increasing younger people's bone marrow registry participation.

Donating blood and organs : using an extended theory of planned behavior perspective to identify similarities and differences in individual motivations to donate

Due to the critical shortage and continued need of blood and organ donations (ODs), research exploring similarities and differences in the motivational determinants of these behaviors is needed. In a sample of 258 university students, we used a cross-sectional design to test the utility of an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) including moral norm, self-identity and in-group altruism (family/close friends and ethnic group), to predict people’s blood and OD intentions. Overall, the extended TPB explained 77.0% and 74.6% of variance in blood and OD intentions, respectively. In regression analyses, common contributors to intentions across donation contexts were attitude, self-efficacy and self-identity. Normative influences varied with subjective norm as a significant predictor related to OD intentions but not blood donation intentions at the final step of regression analyses. Moral norm did not contribute significantly to blood or OD intentions. In-group altruism (family/close friends) was significantly related to OD intentions only in regressions. Future donation strategies should increase confidence to donate, foster a perception of self as the type of person who donates blood and/or organs, and address preferences to donate organs to in-group members only.

Exenatide extended-release; clinical trials, patient preference, and economic considerations

Type 2 diabetes remains an escalating world-wide problem, despite a range of treatments. The revelation that insulin secretion is under the control of a gut hormone, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) led to a new paradigm in the management of type 2 diabetes, medicines that directly stimulate, or that prolong the actions of the endogenous GLP-1, at its receptors. Exenatide is an agonist at the GLP-1 receptors, and was initially developed as a subcutaneous twice daily medication, ExBID. The clinical trials with ExBID established a role for exenatide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Subsequently, once weekly exenatide (ExQW) was shown to have advantages over ExBID, and there is now more emphasis on the development of ExQW. ExQW alone reduces glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body weight, and is well tolerated. ExQW has been compared to sitagliptin, pioglitazone and metformin, and shown to have a greater ability to reduce HbA1c than these other medicines. The only preparation of insulin, which ExQW has been compared to, is insulin glargine, and the ExQW has some favourable properties in this comparison, notably causing weight loss, compared to the gain with insulin glargine. ExQW has been compared to another GLP-1 receptor agonist, liraglutide, and ExQW is non-inferior to liraglutide in reducing HbA1c. The small amount of evidence available, shows that subjects with type 2 diabetes, prefer ExQW to ExBID, and that adherence was high to these in the clinical trial setting. Healthcare and economic modelling suggests that ExQW will reduce diabetic complications and be cost-effective, compared to other medications, with long term use. Little is known about whether subjects with type 2 diabetes prefer ExQW to other medicines, and whether adherence is good to ExQW in practice, and these important topics require further study.

Redistribution and technology adoption under uncertainty : a political economy perspective

We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.

Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution