Behavioral consistency, the homology assumption, and the problems of induction

The ultimate goal of profiling is to identify the major behavioral and personality characteristics to narrow the suspect pool. Inferences about offender characteristics can be accomplished deductively, based on the analysis of discrete offender behaviors established within a particular case. They can also be accomplished inductively, involving prediction based on abstract offender averages from group data (these methods and the logic on which they are based is detailed extensively in Chapters 2 and 4). As discussed, these two approaches are by no means equal.

Criminal profiling : behavioural consistency, the homology assumption and case linkage

Criminal profiling is an investigative tool used around the world to infer the personality and behavioural characteristics of an offender based on their crime. Case linkage, the process of determining discreet connections between crimes of the same offender, is a practice that falls under the general banner of criminal profiling and has been widely criticized. Two theories, behavioural consistency and the homology assumption, are examined and their impact on profiling in general and case linkage specifically is discussed...

Marginal costs of hospital-acquired conditions : information for priority-setting for patient safety programmes and research

Objective: To estimate the relative inpatient costs of hospital-acquired conditions. Methods: Patient level costs were estimated using computerized costing systems that log individual utilization of inpatient services and apply sophisticated cost estimates from the hospital's general ledger. Occurrence of hospital-acquired conditions was identified using an Australian ‘condition-onset' flag for diagnoses not present on admission. These were grouped to yield a comprehensive set of 144 categories of hospital-acquired conditions to summarize data coded with ICD-10. Standard linear regression techniques were used to identify the independent contribution of hospital-acquired conditions to costs, taking into account the case-mix of a sample of acute inpatients (n = 1,699,997) treated in Australian public hospitals in Victoria (2005/06) and Queensland (2006/07). Results: The most costly types of complications were post-procedure endocrine/metabolic disorders, adding AU$21,827 to the cost of an episode, followed by MRSA (AU$19,881) and enterocolitis due to Clostridium difficile (AU$19,743). Aggregate costs to the system, however, were highest for septicaemia (AU$41.4 million), complications of cardiac and vascular implants other than septicaemia (AU$28.7 million), acute lower respiratory infections, including influenza and pneumonia (AU$27.8 million) and UTI (AU$24.7 million). Hospital-acquired complications are estimated to add 17.3% to treatment costs in this sample. Conclusions: Patient safety efforts frequently focus on dramatic but rare complications with very serious patient harm. Previous studies of the costs of adverse events have provided information on ‘indicators’ of safety problems rather than the full range of hospital-acquired conditions. Adding a cost dimension to priority-setting could result in changes to the focus of patient safety programmes and research. Financial information should be combined with information on patient outcomes to allow for cost-utility evaluation of future interventions.

Bi-modal biometric authentication on mobile phones in challenging conditions

This paper examines the issue of face, speaker and bi-modal authentication in mobile environments when there is significant condition mismatch. We introduce this mismatch by enrolling client models on high quality biometric samples obtained on a laptop computer and authenticating them on lower quality biometric samples acquired with a mobile phone. To perform these experiments we develop three novel authentication protocols for the large publicly available MOBIO database. We evaluate state-of-the-art face, speaker and bi-modal authentication techniques and show that inter-session variability modelling using Gaussian mixture models provides a consistently robust system for face, speaker and bi-modal authentication. It is also shown that multi-algorithm fusion provides a consistent performance improvement for face, speaker and bi-modal authentication. Using this bi-modal multi-algorithm system we derive a state-of-the-art authentication system that obtains a half total error rate of 6.3% and 1.9% for Female and Male trials, respectively.

Behaviour of LSF floor systems with improved joist sections under fire conditions

Fire safety design of buildings is essential to safeguard lives and minimize the loss of damage to properties. Light-weight cold-formed steel channel sections along with fire resistive plasterboards are used to construct light gauge steel frame floor systems to provide the required fire resistance rating. However, simply adding more plasterboard layers is not an efficient method to increase FRR. Hence this research focuses on using joists with improved joist section profiles such as hollow flange sections to increase the structural capacity of floor systems under fire conditions and thus their FRR. In this research, the structural and thermal behaviour of LSF floor systems made of LiteSteel Beams with different plasterboard and insulation configurations was investigated using four full scale tests under standard fires. Based on the ultimate failure load of the floor joist at ambient temperature, transient state fire tests were conducted for different Load Ratios. These fire tests showed that the new LSF floor system has improved the FRR well above that of those made of lipped channel sections. The joist failure was predominantly due to local buckling of LSB compression flanges near mid-span with severe yielding of tension flanges. Fire tests have provided valuable structural and thermal performance data of tested floor systems that included time-temperature profiles, and failure times and temperatures. Average failure temperatures of LSB joists and reduced yield strengths were used to predict their ultimate moment capacities, which were compared with corresponding test capacities. This allowed an assessment in relation to the accuracy of current design rules for steel joists at elevated temperatures. This paper presents the details of full scale fire tests of LSF floor systems made of LSB joists with different plasterboard and insulation configurations and their results along with some important findings.

Environmental conditions are important for establishing and evaluating pre-clinical models of GVHD

GVHD remains the major complication of allo-HSCT. Murine models are the primary system used to understand GVHD, and to develop potential therapies. Several factors are critical for GVHD in these models; including histo- compatibility, conditioning regimen, and T-cell number. We serendipitously found that environmental factors such as the caging system and bedding also significantly impact the kinetics of GVHD in these models. This is important because such factors may influence the experimental conditions required to cause GVHD and how mice respond to various treatments. Consequently, this is likely to alter interpretation of results between research groups, and the perceived effectiveness of experimental therapies.

Empirical evaluation of the travel time reliability indicators: A case study for Brisbane corridor under recurrent and non-recurrent conditions

This research quantifies traffic congestion and travel time reliability with case study on a major arterial road in Brisbane. The focus is on the analysis of impact of incidents (e.g., road accidents) on travel time reliability. Real traffic (Bluetooth) and incident records from Coronation Drive, Brisbane are utilized for the study. The findings include significant impact of incidents on traffic congestion and travel time reliability. The knowledge gained is useful in various applications such as traveler information systems, and cost-benefit analysis of various strategies to reduce the traffic incidents and its' impacts.

Static load bearing exercises of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with an osseointegrated implant: Reliability of kinetic data

This study aimed at presenting the intra-tester reliability of the static load bearing exercises (LBEs) performed by individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA) fitted with an osseointegrated implant to stimulate the bone remodelling process. There is a need for a better understanding of the implementation of these exercises particularly the reliability. The intra-tester reliability is discussed with a particular emphasis on inter-load prescribed, inter-axis and inter-component reliabilities as well as the effect of body weight normalisation. Eleven unilateral TFAs fitted with an OPRA implant performed five trials in four loading conditions. The forces and moments on the three axes of the implant were measured directly with an instrumented pylon including a six-channel transducer. Reliability of loading variables was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and percentage standard error of measurement values (%SEMs). The ICCs of all variables were above 0.9 and the %SEM values ranged between 0 and 87%. This study showed a high between-participants’ variance highlighting the lack of loading consistency typical of symptomatic population as well as a high reliability between the loading sessions indicating a plausible correct repetition of the LBE by the participants. However, these outcomes must be understood within the framework of the proposed experimental protocol.

Towards strongly consistent online HMM parameter estimation using one-step Kerridge inaccuracy

In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on the new information-theoretic concept of one-step Kerridge inaccuracy (OKI). Under several regulatory conditions, we establish a convergence result (and some limited strong consistency results) for our proposed online OKI-based parameter estimator. In simulation studies, we illustrate the global convergence behaviour of our proposed estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence of other popular HMM parameter estimators.

Limitations of a laboratory scale model in predicting optimal pilot scale conditions for dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse

Pilot and industrial scale dilute acid pretreatment data can be difficult to obtain due to the significant infrastructure investment required. Consequently, models of dilute acid pretreatment by necessity use laboratory scale data to determine kinetic parameters and make predictions about optimal pretreatment conditions at larger scales. In order for these recommendations to be meaningful, the ability of laboratory scale models to predict pilot and industrial scale yields must be investigated. A mathematical model of the dilute acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has previously been developed by the authors. This model was able to successfully reproduce the experimental yields of xylose and short chain xylooligomers obtained at the laboratory scale. In this paper, the ability of the model to reproduce pilot scale yield and composition data is examined. It was found that in general the model over predicted the pilot scale reactor yields by a significant margin. Models that appear very promising at the laboratory scale may have limitations when predicting yields on a pilot or industrial scale. It is difficult to comment whether there are any consistent trends in optimal operating conditions between reactor scale and laboratory scale hydrolysis due to the limited reactor datasets available. Further investigation is needed to determine whether the model has some efficacy when the kinetic parameters are re-evaluated by parameter fitting to reactor scale data, however, this requires the compilation of larger datasets. Alternatively, laboratory scale mathematical models may have enhanced utility for predicting larger scale reactor performance if bulk mass transport and fluid flow considerations are incorporated into the fibre scale equations. This work reinforces the need for appropriate attention to be paid to pilot scale experimental development when moving from laboratory to pilot and industrial scales for new technologies.

Field size consistency of nominally matched linacs

Given that there is increasing recognition of the effect that submillimetre changes in collimator position can have on radiotherapy beam dosimetry, this study aimed to evaluate the potential variability in small field collimation that may exist between otherwise matched linacs. Field sizes and field output factors were measured using radiochromic film and an electron diode, for jaw- and MLC-collimated fields produced by eight dosimetrically matched Varian iX linacs (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, USA). This study used nominal sizes from 0.6×0.6 to 10×10 cm215 , for jaw-collimated fields,and from 1×1 to 10×10 cm216 , for MLC-collimated fields, delivered from a zero (head up, beam directed vertically downward) gantry angle. Differences between the field sizes measured for the eight linacs exceeded the uncertainty of the film measurements and the repositioning uncertainty of the jaws and MLCs on one linac. The dimensions of fields defined by MLC leaves were more consistent between linacs, while also differing more from their nominal values than fields defined by orthogonal jaws. The field output factors measured for the different linacs generally increased with increasing measured field size for the nominal 0.6×0.6 and 1×1 cm2 fields, and became consistent between linacs for nominal field sizes of 2×2 cm2 25 and larger. The inclusion in radiotherapy treatment planning system beam data of small field output factors acquired in fields collimated by jaws (rather than the more-reproducible MLCs), associated with either the nominal or the measured field sizes, should be viewed with caution. The size and reproducibility of the fields (especially the small fields) used to acquire treatment planning data should be investigated thoroughly as part of the linac or planning system commissioning process. Further investigation of these issues, using different linac models, collimation systems and beam orientations, is recommended.

Prediction of shrinkage and porosity during drying: Considering both material properties and process conditions

Drying of food materials offers a significant increase in the shelf life of food materials, along with the modification of quality attributes due to simultaneous heat and mass transfer. Shrinkage and variations in porosity are the common micro and microstructural changes that take place during the drying of mostly the food materials. Although extensive research has been carried out on the prediction of shrinkage and porosity over the time of drying, no single model exists which consider both material properties and process condition in the same model. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop and validate shrinkage and porosity models of food materials during drying considering both process parameters and sample properties. The stored energy within the sample, elastic potential energy, glass transition temperature and physical properties of the sample such as initial porosity, particle density, bulk density and moisture content have been taken into consideration. Physical properties and validation have been made by using a universal testing machine ( Instron 2kN), a profilometer (Nanovea) and a pycnometer. Apart from these, COMSOL Multiphysics 4.4 has been used to solve heat and mass transfer physics. Results obtained from models of shrinkage and porosity is quite consistent with the experimental data. Successful implementation of these models would ensure the use of optimum energy in the course of drying and better quality retention of dried foods.