Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.

Interventions to control nosocomial infections : study designs and statistical issues

There is a wide range of potential study designs for intervention studies to decrease nosocomial infections in hospitals. The analysis is complex due to competing events, clustering, multiple timescales and time-dependent period and intervention variables. This review considers the popular pre-post quasi-experimental design and compares it with randomized designs. Randomization can be done in several ways: randomization of the cluster [intensive care unit (ICU) or hospital] in a parallel design; randomization of the sequence in a cross-over design; and randomization of the time of intervention in a stepped-wedge design. We introduce each design in the context of nosocomial infections and discuss the designs with respect to the following key points: bias, control for nonintervention factors, and generalizability. Statistical issues are discussed. A pre-post-intervention design is often the only choice that will be informative for a retrospective analysis of an outbreak setting. It can be seen as a pilot study with further, more rigorous designs needed to establish causality. To yield internally valid results, randomization is needed. Generally, the first choice in terms of the internal validity should be a parallel cluster randomized trial. However, generalizability might be stronger in a stepped-wedge design because a wider range of ICU clinicians may be convinced to participate, especially if there are pilot studies with promising results. For analysis, the use of extended competing risk models is recommended.

Long-term outcomes following Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit

Aortic root replacement is a complex procedure, though subsequent modifications of the original Bentall procedure have made surgery more reproducible. The study aim was to examine the outcomes of a modified Bentall procedure, using the Medtronic Open PivotTM valved conduit. Whilst short-term data on the conduit and long-term data on the valve itself are available, little is known of the long-term results with the valved conduit. Patients undergoing aortic root replacement between February 1999 and February 2010, using the Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit were identified from the prospectively collected Cardiothoracic Register at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. All patients were followed up echocardiographically and clinically. The primary end-point was death, and a Cox proportional model was used to identify factors associated.with survival. Secondary end-points were valve-related morbidity (as defined by STS guidelines) and postoperative morbidity. Predictors of morbidity were identified using logistic regression. A total of 246 patients (mean age 50 years) was included in the study. The overall mortality was 12%, with actuarial 10-year survival 79% and a 10-year estimate of valve-related death of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.004, 0.07). Preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.004, HR 4.74), urgency of operation (p = 0.038, HR 2.8) and 10% incremental decreases in ejection fraction (p = 0.046, HR 0.69) were predictive of mortality. Survival was also affected by the valve gradients, with a unit increase in peak gradient reducing mortality (p = 0.021, HR 0.93). Valve-related morbidity occurred in 11 patients. Urgent surgery (p <0.001, OR 4.12), aortic dissection (p = 0.015, OR 3.35), calcific aortic stenosis (p = 0.016, OR 2.35) and Marfan syndrome (p 0.009, OR 3.75) were predictive of postoperative morbidity. The reoperation rate was 1.2%. The Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit is a safe and durable option for aortic root replacement, and is associated with low morbidity and 10-year survival of 79%. However, further studies are required to determine the effect of valve gradient on survival.

Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels

Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

The silent and apparent neurological injury in transcatheter aortic valve implantation study (SANITY) : concept, design and rationale

Background The incidence of clinically apparent stroke in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) exceeds that of any other procedure performed by interventional cardiologists and, in the index admission, occurs more than twice as frequently with TAVI than with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). However, this represents only a small component of the vast burden of neurological injury that occurs during TAVI, with recent evidence suggesting that many strokes are clinically silent or only subtly apparent. Additionally, insult may manifest as slight neurocognitive dysfunction rather than overt neurological deficits. Characterisation of the incidence and underlying aetiology of these neurological events may lead to identification of currently unrecognised neuroprotective strategies. Methods The Silent and Apparent Neurological Injury in TAVI (SANITY) Study is a prospective, multicentre, observational study comparing the incidence of neurological injury after TAVI versus SAVR. It introduces an intensive, standardised, formal neurologic and neurocognitive disease assessment for all aortic valve recipients, regardless of intervention (SAVR, TAVI), valve-type (bioprosthetic, Edwards SAPIEN-XT) or access route (sternotomy, transfemoral, transapical or transaortic). Comprehensive monitoring of neurological insult will also be recorded to more fully define and compare the neurological burden of the procedures and identify targets for harm minimisation strategies. Discussion The SANITY study undertakes the most rigorous assessment of neurological injury reported in the literature to date. It attempts to accurately characterise the insult and sustained injury associated with both TAVI and SAVR in an attempt to advance understanding of this complication and associations thus allowing for improved patient selection and procedural modification.

Head-of-bed elevation improves end-expiratory lung volumes in mechanically ventilated subjects : a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: Head-of-bed elevation (HOBE) has been shown to assist in reducing respiratory complications associated with mechanical ventilation; however, there is minimal research describing changes in end-expiratory lung volume. This study aims to investigate changes in end-expiratory lung volume in a supine position and 2 levels of HOBE. METHODS: Twenty postoperative cardiac surgery subjects were examined using electrical impedance tomography. End-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) was recorded as a surrogate measurement of end-expiratory lung volume in a supine position and at 20° and then 30°. RESULTS: Significant increases in end-expiratory lung volume were seen at both 20° and 30° HOBE in all lung regions, except the anterior, with the largest changes from baseline (supine) seen at 30°. From baseline to 30° HOBE, global EELI increased by 1,327 impedance units (95% CI 1,080–1,573, P < .001). EELI increased by 1,007 units (95% CI 880–1,134, P < .001) in the left lung region and by 320 impedance units (95% CI 188–451, P < .001) in the right lung. Posterior increases of 1,544 impedance units (95% CI 1,405–1,682, P < .001) were also seen. EELI decreased anteriorly, with the largest decreases occurring at 30° (−335 impedance units, 95% CI −486 to −183, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: HOBE significantly increases global and regional end-expiratory lung volume; therefore, unless contraindicated, all mechanically ventilated patients should be positioned with HOBE.

The prolongation of length of stay because of Clostridium difficile infection

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) possibly extends hospital length of stay (LOS); however, the current evidence does not account for the time-dependent bias, ie, when infection is incorrectly analyzed as a baseline covariate. The aim of this study was to determine whether CDI increases LOS after managing this bias. Methods We examined the estimated extra LOS because of CDI using a multistate model. Data from all persons hospitalized >48 hours over 4 years in a tertiary hospital in Australia were analyzed. Persons with health care-associated CDIs were identified. Cox proportional hazards models were applied together with multistate modeling. Results One hundred fifty-eight of 58,942 admissions examined had CDI. The mean extra LOS because of infection was 0.9 days (95% confidence interval: −1.8 to 3.6 days, P = .51) when a multistate model was applied. The hazard of discharge was lower in persons who had CDI (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.42; P < .001) when a Cox proportional hazard model was applied. Conclusion This study is the first to use multistate models to determine the extra LOS because of CDI. Results suggest CDI does not significantly contribute to hospital LOS, contradicting findings published elsewhere. Conversely, when methods prone to result in time-dependent bias were applied to the data, the hazard of discharge significantly increased. These findings contribute to discussion on methods used to evaluate LOS and health care-associated infections.

Macro- and micronutrient disposition in an ex vivo model of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Background Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) circuits have been shown to sequester circulating blood compounds such as drugs based on their physicochemical properties. This study aimed to describe the disposition of macro- and micronutrients in simulated ECMO circuits. Methods Following baseline sampling, known quantities of macro- and micronutrients were injected post oxygenator into ex vivo ECMO circuits primed with the fresh human whole blood and maintained under standard physiologic conditions. Serial blood samples were then obtained at 1, 30 and 60 min and at 6, 12 and 24 h after the addition of nutrients, to measure the concentrations of study compounds using validated assays. Results Twenty-one samples were tested for thirty-one nutrient compounds. There were significant reductions (p < 0.05) in circuit concentrations of some amino acids [alanine (10%), arginine (95%), cysteine (14%), glutamine (25%) and isoleucine (7%)], vitamins [A (42%) and E (6%)] and glucose (42%) over 24 h. Significant increases in circuit concentrations (p < 0.05) were observed over time for many amino acids, zinc and vitamin C. There were no significant reductions in total proteins, triglycerides, total cholesterol, selenium, copper, manganese and vitamin D concentrations within the ECMO circuit over a 24-h period. No clear correlation could be established between physicochemical properties and circuit behaviour of tested nutrients. Conclusions Significant alterations in macro- and micronutrient concentrations were observed in this single-dose ex vivo circuit study. Most significantly, there is potential for circuit loss of essential amino acid isoleucine and lipid soluble vitamins (A and E) in the ECMO circuit, and the mechanisms for this need further exploration. While the reductions in glucose concentrations and an increase in other macro- and micronutrient concentrations probably reflect cellular metabolism and breakdown, the decrement in arginine and glutamine concentrations may be attributed to their enzymatic conversion to ornithine and glutamate, respectively. While the results are generally reassuring from a macronutrient perspective, prospective studies in clinical subjects are indicated to further evaluate the influence of ECMO circuit on micronutrient concentrations and clinical outcomes.

Literacy and numeracy project: Final report 2009

Literacy and numeracy are critical for young people during and after their schooling. The subjects and courses that students undertake during their school years incorporate a range of academic literacy and numeracy practices which students must be able manage if they are to be successful. Pathways beyond schooling also require specific, and changing, understandings of, and proficiencies with, literacy and numeracy as new communication technologies increasingly impact on further study, work, and everyday life. Teaching and learning numeracy is a new emphasis in the SACE and as yet we have little understanding about the ways in which secondary schools handle this area. Students in Years 10 and 11 are at a crucial point in their educational and life pathways as they begin to refine their future aspirations. For those who have difficulty with academic literacies and numeracies – and often a long history of such problems – this period can be fraught unless teachers are able to provide specific support when it is needed, or students are able to access it from care-givers or community members. The School to Work Literacy and Numeracy Project involved teachers from nine schools across the three sectors and university researchers working together to design curriculum interventions for students with a history of low measurable achievement in literacy and/or numeracy. The project started from the premise that working with ‘rich tasks’, an approach to learning and assessment developed in the Productive Pedagogies work undertaken in Queensland (Hayes et al., 2006), would improve students’ motivation, engagement and learning and that this work could best be done by teachers working in school-based, cross-curriculum teams with a school leadership team member and a university researcher as mentor. A key idea in designing rich tasks is that students will have opportunities to demonstrate their learning in assessments which are aligned with the learning expectations (for example a film festival to publicly launch student-produced films, advertising to sell student-made cubby-houses, a household budget based on students’ likely incomes in future work). In other words the assessments should be designed to allow for authentic communication and displays of what the students have learned through serious engagement with the curriculum. The project was conducted from Term 1-4 2009, with follow-up checks with some project teachers in the early weeks of 2010.

An updated analysis of death data during the Morwell mine fire

An updated analysis of the previous analysis available here: http://eprints.qut.edu.au/76230/

Streamlined research funding using short proposals and accelerated peer review : an observational study

Background Despite the widely recognised importance of sustainable health care systems, health services research remains generally underfunded in Australia. The Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation (AusHSI) is funding health services research in the state of Queensland. AusHSI has developed a streamlined protocol for applying and awarding funding using a short proposal and accelerated peer review. Method An observational study of proposals for four health services research funding rounds from May 2012 to November 2013. A short proposal of less than 1,200 words was submitted using a secure web-based portal. The primary outcome measures are: time spent preparing proposals; a simplified scoring of grant proposals (reject, revise or accept for interview) by a scientific review committee; and progressing from submission to funding outcomes within eight weeks. Proposals outside of health services research were deemed ineligible. Results There were 228 eligible proposals across 4 funding rounds: from 29% to 79% were shortlisted and 9% to 32% were accepted for interview. Success rates increased from 6% (in 2012) to 16% (in 2013) of eligible proposals. Applicants were notified of the outcomes within two weeks from the interview; which was a maximum of eight weeks after the submission deadline. Applicants spent 7 days on average preparing their proposal. Applicants with a ranking of reject or revise received written feedback and suggested improvements for their proposals, and resubmissions composed one third of the 2013 rounds. Conclusions The AusHSI funding scheme is a streamlined application process that has simplified the process of allocating health services research funding for both applicants and peer reviewers. The AusHSI process has minimised the time from submission to notification of funding outcomes.

Reducing grant application numbers : the shame stick or prize carrot?

Researchers spend an average of 38 working days preparing an NHMRC Project Grant proposal, but with success rates of just 15% then over 500 years of researcher went into failed applications in 2014. This time would likely have been better spent on actual research. Many applications are non-competitive and could possibly be culled early, saving time for both researchers and funding agencies. Our analysis of the major health and medical scheme in Australia estimated that 61% of applications were never likely to be funded...