Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Can mothers accurately describe their toddler’s weight? Results from the NOURISH cohort

A mother’s perception of her child’s weight may be more important in determining how she feeds her child, than the child’s actual weight status. Use of controlling feeding practices, prompted by perceptions and concerns about weight, may disrupt the child’s innate self-regulation of energy intake. This can promote overeating and overweight (Costanzo & Woody, 1985). This study describes mother’s perception of her child’s weight relative to the child’s actual weight. Mothers in the control group of NOURISH (n=276) were asked to describe their child as underweight, normal weight, or somewhat/very overweight via self-administered questionnaire when children were aged 12-16 months (Daniels et al, 2009). Child’s weight and length were measured by study staff. At assessment, mean age (sd) was 13.7(1.3) months, mean weight-for-age z-score (sd) was 0.6(0.8) (WHO standards, 2008), and 51% were male. Twenty-seven children were perceived as underweight (10%) and twelve children were perceived as overweight (4%). ANOVA revealed significant differences in weight-for-age z-scores across each category of weight perception, mean (sd) -0.2(0.5), 0.6(0.8) and 1.8(0.7) for underweight, normal weight and overweight respectively F(4, 288)= 15.6, (p<0.00). Based on WHO criteria only one of the 27 children was correctly perceived as underweight (WHO 2008). Similarly while 12 children were perceived as overweight, 88 were actually overweight/at risk. At group level, children of mothers who perceived their child as underweight were indeed leaner. However at the individual level mothers could not accurately describe their child’s weight, tending to over-identify underweight and perceive overweight children as normal weight.

Prevalence and clinical outcomes for patients with ALK-positive resected stage I to III adenocarcinoma : results from the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape Project

PURPOSE: The prevalence of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene fusion (ALK positivity) in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) varies by population examined and detection method used. The Lungscape ALK project was designed to address the prevalence and prognostic impact of ALK positivity in resected lung adenocarcinoma in a primarily European population. METHODS: Analysis of ALK status was performed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) in tissue sections of 1,281 patients with adenocarcinoma in the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape iBiobank. Positive patients were matched with negative patients in a 1:2 ratio, both for IHC and for FISH testing. Testing was performed in 16 participating centers, using the same protocol after passing external quality assessment. RESULTS: Positive ALK IHC staining was present in 80 patients (prevalence of 6.2%; 95% CI, 4.9% to 7.6%). Of these, 28 patients were ALK FISH positive, corresponding to a lower bound for the prevalence of FISH positivity of 2.2%. FISH specificity was 100%, and FISH sensitivity was 35.0% (95% CI, 24.7% to 46.5%), with a sensitivity value of 81.3% (95% CI, 63.6% to 92.8%) for IHC 2+/3+ patients. The hazard of death for FISH-positive patients was lower than for IHC-negative patients (P = .022). Multivariable models, adjusted for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, and matched cohort analysis confirmed that ALK FISH positivity is a predictor for better overall survival (OS). CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of surgically resected lung adenocarcinomas, the prevalence of ALK positivity was 6.2% using IHC and at least 2.2% using FISH. A screening strategy based on IHC or H-score could be envisaged. ALK positivity (by either IHC or FISH) was related to better OS.

The impact of Cool Roof applications on energy performance : results from Australian sub-tropical and tropical field studies

Cool roof coatings are identified by their solar reflectance index. They have been reported to have multiple benefits, the extent of which are strongly dependent on the peculiarities of the local climate, building stock and electricity network. This paper presents measured and simulated data from residential, educational and commercial buildings involved in recent field trials in Australia. The purpose of the field trials was to evaluate the impact of such coatings on electricity demand and load and to assess their potential application to improve comfort whilst avoiding the need for air conditioners. Measured reductions in temperature, power (kW) and energy (kWh) were used to develop a predictive model that correlates ambient temperature distribution profiles, building demand reduction profiles and electricity network peak demand times. Combined with simulated data, the study indicates the types of buildings that could be targeted in Demand Management programs for the mutual benefit of electricity networks and building occupants.

Late reactivation of herpes zoster keratitis results in band keratopathy

Purpose To report an unusual case of a late-stage reactivation of immune stromal keratitis associated with herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO), occurring without any apparent predisposing factors, more than 4 years after an acute zoster dermatomal rash. Significant corneal hypoesthesia and a central band keratopathy developed within 6 months of the late-stage reactivation. The clinical case management, issues associated with management, and management options are discussed, including the use of standardized, regulatory approved, antibacterial medical honey. Case Report An 83-year-old woman presented for routine review with a reactivation of right anterior stromal keratitis and mild anterior uveitis, occurring more than 4 years after an acute HZO dermatomal rash and an associated initial episode of anterior stromal keratitis. Corneal sensation became markedly impaired, and over the subsequent 6 months, a right central band keratopathy developed despite oral antiviral and topical steroid therapy. Visual acuity with pinhole was reduced to 20/100 in the affected eye and moderate irritation and epiphora were experienced. The patient declined the surgical intervention options of chelation, lamellar keratectomy, and phototherapeutic keratectomy to treat the band keratopathy. Longer-term management has involved preservative-free artificial tears, eyelid hygiene, standardized antibacterial medical honey, topical nonpreserved steroid, and UV-protective wraparound sunglasses. The clinical condition has improved over 14 months with this ocular surface management regimen, and visual acuity of 20/30 is currently achieved in a comfortable eye. Conclusions The chronic and recurrent nature of HZO can be associated with significant corneal morbidity, even many years after the initial zoster episode. Long-term review and management of patients with a history of herpes zoster stromal keratitis are indicated following the initial corneal involvement. Standardized antibacterial medical honey can be considered in the management of the chronic ocular surface disease associated with HZO and warrants further evaluation in clinical trials.

Sex work and health in a rural context: results of qualitative study undertaken in New South Wales

The paper reports health related findings of the first study undertaken of rural sex workers in an income-rich nation. In-depth interviews were conducted with eighteen purposively selected women who work in the rural sex industry. Rural sex services have a unique structure which informs the experiences of sex workers. Recent advances in telecommunications technology have impacted upon the organisation and structure of the sex industry in rural environments. Notable has been the growth of escort services in rural areas, which has diversified the rural sex industry from its traditional base of brothel operations. The general absence of street prostitution in rural settings has meant that the profile of rural sex workers tends to resemble that of escorts or call girls in urban settings, with workers having a relatively high level of control over working conditions and compliance with public health initiatives. Important issues which impact upon the rural sex industry include confidentiality and the more limited market for sexual services likely to be encountered in rural settings. These issues may impact on the sexual health of rural sex workers in terms of risk practices and access to health services.

Transformerless PV inverters - recent test results and a discussion of DC current injection and safety issues

With the variety of PV inverter types and the number of transformerless PV inverters on the Australian market increasing, we revisit some of the issues associated with these topologies. A recent electric shock incident in Queensland (luckily without serious outcome) associated with a transformerless PV system, highlights the need for earthing PV array structures and PV module frames to prevent capacitive leakage currents causing electric shock. The presented test results of the relevant voltages associated with leakage currents of five transformerless PV inverters stress this requirement, which is currently being addressed by both the Clean Energy Council and Standards Australia. DC current injection tests were performed on the same five inverters and were used to develop preliminary recommendations for a more meaningful DC current test procedure for AS4777 Part 2. The test circuit, methodology and results are presented and discussed. A notable temperature dependency of DC current injections with three of the five inverters suggests that DC current injection should be tested at high and low internal inverter temperatures whereas the power dependency noted only for one inverter does not seem to justify recommendations for a (rather involved) standard test procedure at different power levels.

Fouling of waste heat recovery : numerical and experimental results

Numerical results are presented to investigate the performance of a partly-filled porous heat exchanger for waste heat recovery units. A parametric study was conducted to investigate the effects of inlet velocity and porous block height on the pressure drop of the heat exchanger. The focus of this work is on modelling the interface of a porous and non-porous region. As such, numerical simulation of the problem is conducted along with hot-wire measurements to better understand the physics of the problem. Results from the two sources are then compared to existing theoretical predictions available in the literature which are unable to predict the existence of two separation regions before and after the porous block. More interestingly, a non-uniform interface velocity was observed along the streamwise direction based on both numerical and experimental data.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.