Fully Bayesian experimental design for pharmacokinetic studies

Utility functions in Bayesian experimental design are usually based on the posterior distribution. When the posterior is found by simulation, it must be sampled from for each future data set drawn from the prior predictive distribution. Many thousands of posterior distributions are often required. A popular technique in the Bayesian experimental design literature to rapidly obtain samples from the posterior is importance sampling, using the prior as the importance distribution. However, importance sampling will tend to break down if there is a reasonable number of experimental observations and/or the model parameter is high dimensional. In this paper we explore the use of Laplace approximations in the design setting to overcome this drawback. Furthermore, we consider using the Laplace approximation to form the importance distribution to obtain a more efficient importance distribution than the prior. The methodology is motivated by a pharmacokinetic study which investigates the effect of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on the pharmacokinetics of antibiotics in sheep. The design problem is to find 10 near optimal plasma sampling times which produce precise estimates of pharmacokinetic model parameters/measures of interest. We consider several different utility functions of interest in these studies, which involve the posterior distribution of parameter functions.

Experimental studies of hollow flange channel beams subject to combined bending and shear actions

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to combined bending and shear actions. The LSB sections are produced by a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding. Due to the geometry of the LSB, as well as its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections resultant of manufacturing processes, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending actions and predominant shear actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the strength of LSB sections under combined bending and shear actions. Combined bending and shear is especially prevalent at the supports of continuous span and cantilever beams, where the interaction of high shear force and bending moment can reduce the capacity of a section to well below that for the same section subject only to pure shear or moment. Hence experimental studies were conducted to assess the combined bending and shear behaviour and strengths of LSBs. Eighteen tests were conducted and the results were compared with current AS/NZS 4600 and AS 4100 design rules. AS/NZS 4600 design rules were shown to grossly underestimate the combined bending and shear capacities of LSBs and hence two lower bound design equations were proposed based on experimental results. Use of these equations will significantly improve the confidence and cost-effectiveness of designing LSBs for combined bending and shear actions.

Experimental arts practice incorporating motion capture

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. Made by Motion is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generate experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN – Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In my presentation I will be displaying and discussing a selected creative works from the project along with the process and considerations behind the work.

Structure, magnetism and colour in simple bis­(phosphine)nickel(II) dihalide complexes : an experimental and theoretical investigation

The complex [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­iodido­nickel(II), [NiI2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiI2, [dtbpe is 1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane], is bright blue-green in the solid state and in solution, but, contrary to the structure predicted for a blue or green nickel(II) bis­(phos­phine) complex, it is found to be close to square planar in the solid state. The solution structure is deduced to be similar, because the optical spectra measured in solution and in the solid state contain similar absorptions. In solution at room temperature, no 31P{1H} NMR resonance is observed, but the very small solid-state magnetic moment at temperatures down to 4 K indicates that the weak paramagnetism of this nickel(II) complex can be ascribed to temperature independent paramagnetism, and that the complex has no unpaired electrons. The red [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­chlorido­nickel(II), [NiCl2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiCl2, is very close to square planar and very weakly paramagnetic in the solid state and in solution, while the maroon [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­bromido­nickel(II), [NiBr2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiBr2, is isostructural with the diiodide in the solid state, and displays paramagnetism inter­mediate between that of the dichloride and the diiodide in the solid state and in solution. Density functional calculations demonstrate that distortion from an ideal square plane for these complexes occurs on a flat potential energy surface. The calculations reproduce the observed structures and colours, and explain the trends observed for these and similar complexes. Although theoretical investigation identified magnetic-dipole-allowed excitations that are characteristic for temperature-independent paramagnetism (TIP), theory predicts the mol­ecules to be diamagnetic.

Observation of ions and particles near busy roads using a Neutral Cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS)

Motor vehicles emit large quantities of ions in the form of both charged particles and molecular cluster ions. While, the health effects of inhalation of charged particles is largely unexplored, the concentrations near busy roads and the distance to which these particles and ions are carried have important implications for the exposure of the large percentage of the population that lives close to such roadways. We measured ion concentrations using a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer (NAIS) near seven busy roads carrying on the average approximately 7000 vehicles hr-1 including about 15% heavy duty diesel vehicles. In this study, charged particle concentrations were measured as a function of downwind distance from the road for the first time. We show that, at a moderate wind speed of 2.0 m s-1, mean charged particle concentrations at the kerb were of the order of 2x104 cm-3 and, more importantly, decreased as d 0.6 where d is the distance from the road. While cluster ions were rapidly depleted by attachment to particles and were not carried to more than about 20 m from the road, elevated concentrations of charged particle were detected up to at least 400 m from the road. Most of the charge on the downwind side was carried on the larger particles, with no excess charge on particles smaller than about 10 nm. At 30 nm, particles carried more than double the charge they would normally carry in equilibrium. There are very few measurements of ions near road traffic and this is the first study of the spatial dispersion of charged particles from a road.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

Improved sub-cellular resolution via simultaneous analysis of organelle proteomics data across varied experimental conditions

Spatial organisation of proteins according to their function plays an important role in the specificity of their molecular interactions. Emerging proteomics methods seek to assign proteins to sub-cellular locations by partial separation of organelles and computational analysis of protein abundance distributions among partially separated fractions. Such methods permit simultaneous analysis of unpurified organelles and promise proteome-wide localisation in scenarios wherein perturbation may prompt dynamic re-distribution. Resolving organelles that display similar behavior during a protocol designed to provide partial enrichment represents a possible shortcoming. We employ the Localisation of Organelle Proteins by Isotope Tagging (LOPIT) organelle proteomics platform to demonstrate that combining information from distinct separations of the same material can improve organelle resolution and assignment of proteins to sub-cellular locations. Two previously published experiments, whose distinct gradients are alone unable to fully resolve six known protein-organelle groupings, are subjected to a rigorous analysis to assess protein-organelle association via a contemporary pattern recognition algorithm. Upon straightforward combination of single-gradient data, we observe significant improvement in protein-organelle association via both a non-linear support vector machine algorithm and partial least-squares discriminant analysis. The outcome yields suggestions for further improvements to present organelle proteomics platforms, and a robust analytical methodology via which to associate proteins with sub-cellular organelles.

Dynamic load sharing in heavy vehicle suspensions - further analysis of the equalisation effects of larger air lines

This paper provides details on comparative testing of axle-to-chassis forces of two heavy vehicles (HVs) based on an experimental programme carried out in 2007. Dynamic forces at the air springs were measured against speed and roughness values for the test roads used. One goal of that programme was to determine whether dynamic axle-to-chassis forces could be reduced by using larger-than-standard diameter longitudinal air lines. This paper presents a portion of the methodology, analysis and results from that programme. Two analytical techniques and their results are presented. The first uses correlation coefficients of the forces between air springs and the second is a student’s t-test. These were used to determine the causality surrounding improved dynamic load sharing between heavy vehicle air springs with larger air lines installed longitudinally compared with the standard sized air lines installed on the majority of air-sprung heavy vehicles.

Association between postmenopausal osteoporosis and experimental periodontitis

To investigate the correlation between postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) and the pathogenesis of periodontitis, ovariectomized rats were generated and the experimental periodontitis was induced using a silk ligature. The inflammatory factors and bone metabolic markers were measured in the serum and periodontal tissues of ovariectomized rats using an automatic chemistry analyzer, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and immunohistochemistry. The bone mineral density of whole body, pelvis, and spine was analyzed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and image analysis. All data were analyzed using SPSS 13.0 statistical software. It was found that ovariectomy could upregulate the expression of interleukin- (IL-)6, the receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL), and osteoprotegerin (OPG) and downregulate IL-10 expression in periodontal tissues, which resulted in progressive alveolar bone loss in experimental periodontitis. This study indicates that changes of cytokines and bone turnover markers in the periodontal tissues of ovariectomized rats contribute to the damage of periodontal tissues.

Prevalence of risk factors for undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnoea is high in truck drivers on UK roads

Objectives To determine the prevalence of symptoms and risk factors of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) in truck drivers at a UK large truck stop. Methods Over a 5 day period, truck drivers completed a short questionnaire at a major UK ‘truck stop’. The questionnaire asked about OSA rist factors and symptoms, and included the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS). Additionally, measurements of height, weight and collar size were taken. 148 truck drivers participated and within this random group the risk factors of OSA that were looked for were:men age over 40 y, obesity, parge neck circumference, smoking, high ESS and bed partner reporting snoring with witnessed apnoeas. Results Our sample were all men, with 82% aged over 40 y. 47% were obese (compared with 23% for UK men in general) and average neck circumference was 42 cm (compared with 38 cm for UK men in general – Martin et al 1997). 31% smoked (vs 21% for general population), and ESS averaged 2.1 points higher than expected for a healthy population (Johns et al 1997). Snoring was quite evident at 57% (compared wth 40% for men in general) and witnessed apnoeas were almost double (7%) compared with 3.8% given by Ohayon et al (1997) generally for men. Conclusion 8 key symptoms and risk factors of OSA have been found to be prevalent in a sample of truck drivers on UK roads, and to greater extent that for estimates in the general male population. Bed partners of truck drivers reporting witnessed apnoeas strongly suggests this group has a high potential for undiagnosed OSA. OSA sufferers are known to be at high risk of causing road traffi c accidents. This, together with the large size of trucks, then the potential for serious road crashes is great. Truck drivers, especially those who are obese, ought to be a high priority population for OSA screening.

Cinema studies : Women's Experimental Cinema edited by Robin Blaetz

Women’s Experimental Cinema provides lively introductions to the work of fifteen avant-garde women filmmakers, some of whom worked as early as the 1950s and many of whom are still working today. In each essay in this collection, a leading film scholar considers a single filmmaker, supplying biographical information, analyzing various influences on her work, examining the development of her corpus, and interpreting a significant number of individual films. The essays rescue the work of critically neglected but influential women filmmakers for teaching, further study, and, hopefully, restoration and preservation. Just as importantly, they enrich the understanding of feminism in cinema and expand the terrain of film history, particularly the history of the American avant-garde.

Experimental study on the fire performance of superior LSF wall systems

Load bearing Light Gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are commonly made of conventional lipped channel sections and gypsum plasterboards. Recently, innovative steel sections such as hollow flange channel sections have been proposed as studs in LSF wall frames with a view to improve their fire resistance ratings. A series of full scale fire tests was then undertaken to investigate the fire performance of the new LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions. Test wall frames made of hollow flange section studs were lined with fire resistant gypsum plasterboards on both sides, and were subjected to increasing temperatures as given by the standard fire curve on one side. Both uninsulated and cavity insulated walls were tested with varying load ratios from 0.2 to 0.6. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the fire performance of LSF walls and the results. Test results showed that the walls made of the new hollow flange channel section studs have a superior fire performance in comparison to that of lipped channel section stud walls. They also showed that the fire performance of cavity insulated walls was inferior to that of uninsulated walls. The reasons for this fire behaviour are described in this paper.

Experimental verification of the modified spring-mass theory of fiber Bragg grating accelerometers using transverse forces

A fiber Bragg grating (FBG) accelerometer using transverse forces is more sensitive than one using axial forces with the same mass of the inertial object, because a barely stretched FBG fixed at its two ends is much more sensitive to transverse forces than axial ones. The spring-mass theory, with the assumption that the axial force changes little during the vibration, cannot accurately predict its sensitivity and resonant frequency in the gravitational direction because the assumption does not hold due to the fact that the FBG is barely prestretched. It was modified but still required experimental verification due to the limitations in the original experiments, such as the (1) friction between the inertial object and shell; (2) errors involved in estimating the time-domain records; (3) limited data; and (4) large interval ∼5 Hz between the tested frequencies in the frequency-response experiments. The experiments presented here have verified the modified theory by overcoming those limitations. On the frequency responses, it is observed that the optimal condition for simultaneously achieving high sensitivity and resonant frequency is at the infinitesimal prestretch. On the sensitivity at the same frequency, the experimental sensitivities of the FBG accelerometer with a 5.71 gram inertial object at 6 Hz (1.29, 1.19, 0.88, 0.64, and 0.31 nm/g at the 0.03, 0.69, 1.41, 1.93, and 3.16 nm prestretches, respectively) agree with the static sensitivities predicted (1.25, 1.14, 0.83, 0.61, and 0.29 nm/g, correspondingly). On the resonant frequency, (1) its assumption that the resonant frequencies in the forced and free vibrations are similar is experimentally verified; (2) its dependence on the distance between the FBG’s fixed ends is examined, showing it to be independent; (3) the predictions of the spring-mass theory and modified theory are compared with the experimental results, showing that the modified theory predicts more accurately. The modified theory can be used more confidently in guiding its design by predicting its static sensitivity and resonant frequency, and may have applications in other fields for the scenario where the spring-mass theory fails.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.