Time alone

Time Alone is the introductory image to the exhibition Lightsite, which toured Western Australian galleries from February 2006 to November 2007. It is a five-minute-long exposure photographic image captured inside an abandoned building which the author converted into a camera obscura. It depicts an inverted image of the outside environment and the text 'time' - which is constructed by torch-light within the building interior and during the photographic exposure. The image evokes isolation and the temporality of inhabitation within the remote farmlands of the Great Southern Region of Western Australia: the region of focus for all of the twelve works in Lightsite. Indeed the owner of this now-abandoned house passed away and was not found for a week - bringing poignancy to the central theme of this creative work.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Bootstrap approaches for estimation and confidence intervals of long term memory processes

In this work, we investigate an alternative bootstrap approach based on a result of Ramsey [F.L. Ramsey, Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function, Ann. Statist. 2 (1974), pp. 1296-1301] and on the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to obtain a surrogate series from linear Gaussian processes with long range dependence. We compare this bootstrap method with other existing procedures in a wide Monte Carlo experiment by estimating, parametrically and semi-parametrically, the memory parameter d. We consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian processes to prove the robustness of the method to deviations from normality. The approach is also useful to estimate confidence intervals for the memory parameter d by improving the coverage level of the interval.

Health, endogenous time preference, and inequality : a political economy perspective

We study an overlapping-generations model in which agents' mortality risks, and consequently impatience, are endogenously determined by private and public investment in health care. Revenues allocated for public health care arc determined by a voting process. We find that the degree of substitutability between public and private health expenditures matters for macroeconomic outcomes of the model. Higher substitutability implies a “crowding-out" effect, which in turn impacts adversely on morality risks and impatience leading to lower public expenditures on health care in the political equilibrium. Consequently, higher substitutability is associated with greater polarization in wealth, and long-run distributions that are bimodal.

25th anniversary of BUA for the assessment of osteoporosis : time for a new paradigm?

The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone at the calcaneus for the assessment of osteoporosis was first described within this journal 25 years ago. It was recognized in 2006 by Universities UK as being one of the ‘100 discoveries and developments in UK Universities that have changed the world’ over the past 50 years. In 2008, the UK's Department of Health also recognized BUA assessment of osteoporosis in a publication highlighting 11 projects that have contributed to ‘60 years of NHS research benefiting patients’. The BUA technique has been extensively clinically validated and is utilized worldwide, with at least seven commercial systems currently providing calcaneal BUA measurement. However, there is still no fundamental understanding of the dependence of BUA upon the material and structural properties of cancellous bone. This review aims to provide an ‘engineering in medicine’ perspective and proposes a new paradigm based upon phase cancellation due to variation in propagation transit time across the receive transducer face to explain the non-linear relationship between BUA and bone volume fraction in cancellous bone.

Real-time vision, tracking and control

This paper, which serves as an introduction to the mini-symposium on Real-Time Vision, Tracking and Control, provides a broad sketch of visual servoing, the application of real-time vision, tracking and control for robot guidance. It outlines the basic theoretical approaches to the problem, describes a typical architecture, and discusses major milestones, applications and the significant vision sub-problems that must be solved.

Real-time image streaming over a low-bandwidth wireless camera network

In this paper we describe the recent development of a low-bandwidth wireless camera sensor network. We propose a simple, yet effective, network architecture which allows multiple cameras to be connected to the network and synchronize their communication schedules. Image compression of greater than 90% is performed at each node running on a local DSP coprocessor, resulting in nodes using 1/8th the energy compared to streaming uncompressed images. We briefly introduce the Fleck wireless node and the DSP/camera sensor, and then outline the network architecture and compression algorithm. The system is able to stream color QVGA images over the network to a base station at up to 2 frames per second. © 2007 IEEE.

Effects of starting strategy on 5-min cycling time-trial performance

The importance of pacing for middle-distance performance is well recognized, yet previous research has produced equivocal results. Twenty-six trained male cyclists (O2peak 62.8 ± 5.9 ml · kg-1 · min-1; maximal aerobic power output 340 ± 43 W; mean ± s) performed three cycling time-trials where the total external work (102.7 ± 13.7 kJ) for each trial was identical to the best of two 5-min habituation trials. Markers of aerobic and anaerobic metabolism were assessed in 12 participants. Power output during the first quarter of the time-trials was fixed to control external mechanical work done (25.7 ± 3.4 kJ) and induce fast-, even-, and slow-starting strategies (60, 75, and 90 s, respectively). Finishing times for the fast-start time-trial (4:53 ± 0:11 min:s) were shorter than for the even-start (5:04 ± 0:11 min:s; 95% CI = 5 to 18 s, effect size = 0.65, P < 0.001) and slow-start time-trial (5:09 ± 0:11 min:s; 95% CI = 7 to 24 s, effect size = 1.00, P < 0.001). Mean O2 during the fast-start trials (4.31 ± 0.51 litres · min-1) was 0.18 ± 0.19 litres · min-1 (95% CI = 0.07 to 0.30 litres · min-1, effect size = 0.94, P = 0.003) higher than the even- and 0.18 ± 0.20 litres · min-1 (95% CI = 0.5 to 0.30 litres · min-1, effect size = 0.86, P = 0.007) higher than the slow-start time-trial. Oxygen deficit was greatest during the first quarter of the fast-start trial but was lower than the even- and slow-start trials during the second quarter of the trial. Blood lactate and pH were similar between the three trials. In conclusion, performance during a 5-min cycling time-trial was improved with the adoption of a fast- rather than an even- or slow-starting strategy.

Influence of all-out and fast start of 5-min cycling time trial performance

Purpose: To examine the influence of two different fast-start pacing strategies on performance and oxygen consumption (V˙O2) during cycle ergometer time trials lasting ∼5 min. Methods: Eight trained male cyclists performed four cycle ergometer time trials whereby the total work completed (113 ± 11.5 kJ; mean ± SD) was identical to the better of two 5-min self-paced familiarization trials. During the performance trials, initial power output was manipulated to induce either an all-out or a fast start. Power output during the first 60 s of the fast-start trial was maintained at 471.0 ± 48.0 W, whereas the all-out start approximated a maximal starting effort for the first 15 s (mean power: 753.6 ± 76.5 W) followed by 45 s at a constant power output (376.8 ± 38.5 W). Irrespective of starting strategy, power output was controlled so that participants would complete the first quarter of the trial (28.3 ± 2.9 kJ) in 60 s. Participants performed two trials using each condition, with their fastest time trial compared. Results: Performance time was significantly faster when cyclists adopted the all-out start (4 min 48 s ± 8 s) compared with the fast start (4 min 51 s ± 8 s; P < 0.05). The first-quarter V˙O2 during the all-out start trial (3.4 ± 0.4 L·min-1) was significantly higher than during the fast-start trial (3.1 ± 0.4 L·min-1; P < 0.05). After removal of an outlier, the percentage increase in first-quarter V˙O2 was significantly correlated (r = -0.86, P < 0.05) with the relative difference in finishing time. Conclusions: An all-out start produces superior middle distance cycling performance when compared with a fast start. The improvement in performance may be due to a faster V˙O2 response rather than time saved due to a rapid acceleration.

Meniscal repair in the elite athlete : results of 45 repairs with a minimum 5-year follow-up

Background The preservation of meniscal tissue is important to protect joint surfaces. Purpose We have an aggressive approach to meniscal repair, including repairing tears other than those classically suited to repair. Here we present the medium- to long-term outcome of meniscal repair (inside-out) in elite athletes. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-two elite athletes underwent 45 meniscal repairs. All repairs were performed using an arthroscopically assisted inside-out technique. Eighty-three percent of these athletes had ACL reconstruction at the same time. Patients returned a completed questionnaire (including Lysholm and International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC] scores). Mean follow-up was 8.5 years. Failure was defined by patients developing symptoms of joint line pain and/or locking or swelling requiring repeat arthroscopy and partial meniscectomy. Results The average Lysholm and subjective IKDC scores were 89.6 and 85.4, respectively. Eighty-one percent of patients returned to their main sport and most to a similar level at a mean time of 10.4 months after repair, reflecting the high level of ACL reconstruction in this group. We identified 11 definite failures, 10 medial and 1 lateral meniscus, that required excision; this represents a 24% failure rate. We identified 1 further patient who had possible failed repairs, giving a worst-case failure rate of 26.7% at a mean of 42 months after surgery. However, 7 of these failures were associated with a further injury. Therefore, the atraumatic failure rate was 11%. Age and size and location of the tears were not associated with a higher failure rate. Medial meniscal repairs were significantly more likely to fail than lateral meniscal repairs, with a failure rate of 36.4% and 5.6%, respectively (P < .05). Conclusion Meniscal repair and healing are possible, and most elite athletes can return to their preinjury level of activity.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Anxiety among high school students in India : comparisons across gender, school type, social strata, and perceptions of quality time with parents

The broad objective of the study was to better understand anxiety among adolescents in Kolkata city, India. Specifically, the study compared anxiety across gender, school type, socio-economic background and mothers’ employment status. The study also examined adolescents’ perceptions of quality time with their parents. A group of 460 adolescents (220 boys and 240 girls), aged 13-17 years were recruited to participate in the study via a multi-stage sampling technique. The data were collected using a self-report semi-structured questionnaire and a standardized psychological test, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results show that anxiety was prevalent in the sample with 20.1% of boys and 17.9% of girls found to be suffering from high anxiety. More boys were anxious than girls (p<0.01). Adolescents from Bengali medium schools were more anxious than adolescents from English medium schools (p<0.01). Adolescents belonging to the middle class (middle socio-economic group) suffered more anxiety than those from both high and low socio-economic groups (p<0.01). Adolescents with working mothers were found to be more anxious (p<0.01). Results also show that a substantial proportion of the adolescents perceived they did not receive quality time from fathers (32.1%) and mothers (21.3%). A large number of them also did not feel comfortable to share their personal issues with their parents (60.0% for fathers and 40.0% for mothers).

Morphologic and genomic characterisation of the koala Chlamydia pneumoniae strain

Chlamydia pneumoniae is a common human and animal pathogen associated with a wide range of upper and lower respiratory tract infections. In more recent years there has been increasing evidence to suggest a link between C. pneumoniae and chronic diseases in humans, including atherosclerosis, stroke and Alzheimer’s disease. C. pneumoniae human strains show little genetic variation, indicating that the human-derived strain originated from a common ancestor in the recent past. Despite extensive information on the genetics and morphology processes of the human strain, knowledge concerning many other hosts (including marsupials, amphibians, reptiles and equines) remains virtually unexplored. The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is a native Australian marsupial under threat due to habitat loss, predation and disease. Koalas are very susceptible to chlamydial infections, most commonly affecting the conjunctiva, urogenital tract and/or respiratory tract. To address this gap in the literature, the present study (i) provides a detailed description of the morphologic and genomic architecture of the C. pneumoniae koala (and human) strain, and shows that the koala strain is microscopically, developmentally and genetically distinct from the C. pneumoniae human strain, and (ii) examines the genetic relationship of geographically diverse C. pneumoniae isolates from human, marsupial, amphibian, reptilian and equine hosts, and identifies two distinct lineages that have arisen from animal-to-human cross species transmissions. Chapter One of this thesis explores the scientific problem and aims of this study, while Chapter Two provides a detailed literature review of the background in this field of work. Chapter Three, the first results chapter, describes the morphology and developmental stages of C. pneumoniae koala isolate LPCoLN, as revealed by fluorescence and transmission electron microscopy. The profile of this isolate, when cultured in HEp-2 human epithelial cells, was quite different to the human AR39 isolate. Koala LPCoLN inclusions were larger; the elementary bodies did not have the characteristic pear-shaped appearance, and the developmental cycle was completed within a shorter period of time (as confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR). These in vitro findings might reflect biological differences between koala LPCoLN and human AR39 in vivo. Chapter Four describes the complete genome sequence of the koala respiratory pathogen, C. pneumoniae LPCoLN. This is the first animal isolate of C. pneumoniae to be fully-sequenced. The genome sequence provides new insights into genomic ‘plasticity’ (organisation), evolution and biology of koala LPCoLN, relative to four complete C. pneumoniae human genomes (AR39, CWL029, J138 and TW183). Koala LPCoLN contains a plasmid that is not shared with any of the human isolates, there is evidence of gene loss in nucleotide salvage pathways, and there are 10 hot spot genomic regions of variation that were previously not identified in the C. pneumoniae human genomes. Sequence (partial-length) from a second, independent, wild koala isolate (EBB) at several gene loci confirmed that the koala LPCoLN isolate was representative of a koala C. pneumoniae strain. The combined sequence data provides evidence that the C. pneumoniae animal (koala LPCoLN) genome is ancestral to the C. pneumoniae human genomes and that human infections may have originated from zoonotic infections. Chapter Five examines key genome components of the five C. pneumoniae genomes in more detail. This analysis reveals genomic features that are shared by and/or contribute to the broad ecological adaptability and evolution of C. pneumoniae. This analysis resulted in the identification of 65 gene sequences for further analysis of intraspecific variation, and revealed some interesting differences, including fragmentation, truncation and gene decay (loss of redundant ancestral traits). This study provides valuable insights into metabolic diversity, adaptation and evolution of C. pneumoniae. Chapter Six utilises a subset of 23 target genes identified from the previous genomic comparisons and makes a significant contribution to our understanding of genetic variability among C. pneumoniae human (11) and animal (6 amphibian, 5 reptilian, 1 equine and 7 marsupial hosts) isolates. It has been shown that the animal isolates are genetically diverse, unlike the human isolates that are virtually clonal. More convincing evidence that C. pneumoniae originated in animals and recently (in the last few hundred thousand years) crossed host species to infect humans is provided in this study. It is proposed that two animal-to-human cross species events have occurred in the context of the results, one evident by the nearly clonal human genotype circulating in the world today, and the other by a more animal-like genotype apparent in Indigenous Australians. Taken together, these data indicate that the C. pneumoniae koala LPCoLN isolate has morphologic and genomic characteristics that are distinct from the human isolates. These differences may affect the survival and activity of the C. pneumoniae koala pathogen in its natural host, in vivo. This study, by utilising the genetic diversity of C. pneumoniae, identified new genetic markers for distinguishing human and animal isolates. However, not all C. pneumoniae isolates were genetically diverse; in fact, several isolates were highly conserved, if not identical in sequence (i.e. Australian marsupials) emphasising that at some stage in the evolution of this pathogen, there has been an adaptation/s to a particular host, providing some stability in the genome. The outcomes of this study by experimental and bioinformatic approaches have significantly enhanced our knowledge of the biology of this pathogen and will advance opportunities for the investigation of novel vaccine targets, antimicrobial therapy, or blocking of pathogenic pathways.

A new future for growth factor complexes as wound therapies?

Background: Topical administration of growth factors (GFs) has displayed some potential in wound healing, but variable efficacy, high doses and costs have hampered their implementation. Moreover, this approach ignores the fact that wound repair is driven by interactions between multiple GFs and extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins. The Problem: Deep dermal partial thickness burn (DDPTB) injuries are the most common burn presentation to pediatric hospitals and also represent the most difficult burn injury to manage clinically. DDPTB often repair with a hypertrophic scar. Wounds that close rapidly exhibit reduced scarring. Thus treatments that shorten the time taken to close DDTPB’s may coincidently reduce scarring. Basic/Clinical Science Advances: We have observed that multi-protein complexes comprised of IGF and IGF-binding proteins bound to the ECM protein vitronectin (VN) significantly enhance cellular functions relevant to wound repair in human skin keratinocytes. These responses require activation of both the IGF-1R and the VN-binding αv integrins. We have recently evaluated the wound healing potential of these GF:VN complexes in a porcine model of DDTPB injury. Clinical Care Relevance: This pilot study demonstrates that GF:VN complexes hold promise as a wound healing therapy. Enhanced healing responses were observed after treatment with nanogram doses of the GF:VN complexes in vitro and in vivo. Critically healing was achieved using substantially less GF than studies in which GFs alone have been used. Conclusion: These data suggest that coupling GFs to ECM proteins, such as VN, may ultimately prove to be an improved technique for the delivery of novel GF-based wound therapies.

Nonlinear control of the Reaction Wheel Pendulum

In this paper we introduce the Reaction Wheel Pendulum, a novel mechanical system consisting of a physical pendulum with a rotating bob. This system has several attractive features both from a pedagogical standpoint and from a research standpoint. From a pedagogical standpoint, the dynamics are the simplest among the various pendulum experiments available so that the system can be introduced to students earlier in their education. At the same time, the system is nonlinear and underactuated so that it can be used as a benchmark experiment to study recent advanced methodologies in nonlinear control, such as feedback linearization, passivity methods, backstepping and hybrid control. In this paper we discuss two control approaches for the problems of swingup and balance, namely, feedback linearization and passivity based control. We first show that the system is locally feedback linearizable by a local diffeomorphism in state space and nonlinear feedback. We compare the feedback linearization control with a linear pole-placement control for the problem of balancing the pendulum about the inverted position. For the swingup problem we discuss an energy approach based on collocated partial feedback linearization, and passivity of the resulting zero dynamics. A hybrid/switching control strategy is used to switch between the swingup and the balance control. Experimental results are presented.