Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Demonstration of nonlinear absorption in Au semi-continuous film by electrical measurement

We have demonstrated the nonlinear absorption at 532 nm wavelength in an Au semi-continuous film (SF) resulting from smearing of the Fermi distribution and diffusion of conduction electrons into the substrate. The Au SF was irradiated by a pulsed laser with 8 ns pulse width at 532 nm in near resonance with the interband transition of the Au. We determined the temperature increase in the SF for different intensities by electrical measurement. We calculated the temperature increase by using a 1D heat transport equation; comparing the results of the calculation with measured values for the temperature increase, revealed the nonlinear absorption in the Au SF. We employed this deviation from linear behaviour to determine the nonlinear absorption coefficient.

Nonlinear ion-acoustic surface waves on a dusty plasma

A nonlinear theory for ion-acoustic surface waves propagating at the interface between a dusty plasma and a dielectric is presented. The nonlinear effects are associated with density modulations caused by surface-wave induced anomalous ionization. The negative charge of the massive dust grains is assumed to be constant. It is shown that the effect of the ionization nonlinearity arising from the ion-acoustic surface waves can result in the formation of surface envelope solitons. The wave phase shifts and the widths of the solitons are estimated for typical gas discharge plasmas.

Nonlinear effects of ionization on surface waves on a plasma-metal interface

Nonlinear effects associated with density modulation caused by wave-induced ionization in magnetized plasmas were studied. The ionizing surface waves propagate at the interface between the plasma and a metallic surface. It is shown that the ionization nonlinearity can be important for typical experimental conditions.

Electron transport across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas : an alternative approach for obtaining evidence of Bohm mechanism

A comparative study involving both experimental and numerical investigations was made to resolve a long-standing problem of understanding electron conductivity mechanism across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas. We have calculated the plasma parameters from experimentally obtained electric field distribution, and then made a 'back' comparison with the distributions of electron energy and plasma density obtained in the experiment. This approach significantly reduces an influence of the assumption about particular phenomenology of the electron conductivity in plasma. The results of the experiment and calculations made by this technique have showed that the classical conductivity is not capable of providing realistic total current and electron energy, whereas the phenomenological anomalous Bohm mobility has demonstrated a very good agreement with the experiment. These results provide an evidence in favor of the Bohm conductivity, thus making it possible to clarify this pressing long-living question about the main driving mechanism responsible for the electron transport in low-temperature plasmas.

Nonlinear geometric and material computational technique : higher-order element with refined plastic hinge approach

This paper addresses of the advanced computational technique of steel structures for both simulation capacities simultaneously; specifically, they are the higher-order element formulation with element load effect (geometric nonlinearities) as well as the refined plastic hinge method (material nonlinearities). This advanced computational technique can capture the real behaviour of a whole second-order inelastic structure, which in turn ensures the structural safety and adequacy of the structure. Therefore, the emphasis of this paper is to advocate that the advanced computational technique can replace the traditional empirical design approach. In the meantime, the practitioner should be educated how to make use of the advanced computational technique on the second-order inelastic design of a structure, as this approach is the future structural engineering design. It means the future engineer should understand the computational technique clearly; realize the behaviour of a structure with respect to the numerical analysis thoroughly; justify the numerical result correctly; especially the fool-proof ultimate finite element is yet to come, of which is competent in modelling behaviour, user-friendly in numerical modelling and versatile for all structural forms and various materials. Hence the high-quality engineer is required, who can confidently manipulate the advanced computational technique for the design of a complex structure but not vice versa.

Nonlinear surface magnetoplasmons at the electron semiconductor-metal interface

The nonlinear self-interaction of the potential surface magnetoplasmons, propagating across the external magnetic field at the n-type semiconductor-metal interface is described in this manuscript. The studied nonlinearity is due to the free carriers dispersion law nonparabolicity and we show that it acts differently in semiconductor materials with normal and inverse band structures. The results of the nonlinear evolution of the surface magnetoplasmons are presented as well.

Nonlinear electromagnetic fields in 0.5 MHz inductively coupled plasmas

Radial profiles of magnetic fields in the electrostatic (E) and electromagnetic (H) modes of low-frequency (∼500) inductively coupled plasmas (ICP) were measured using miniature magnetic probes. A simplified plasma fluid model explaining the generation of the second harmonics of the azimuthal magnetic field in the plasma source was proposed. Because of apparent similarity in the procedure of derivation of the pondermotive force-caused nonlinear terms, pronounced generation of the nonlinear static azimuthal magnetic field could be expected.

Series in vector spherical harmonics : an efficient tool for solution of nonlinear problems in spherical plasmas

The series expansion of the plasma fields and currents in vector spherical harmonics has been demonstrated to be an efficient technique for solution of nonlinear problems in spherically bounded plasmas. Using this technique, it is possible to describe the nonlinear plasma response to the rotating high-frequency magnetic field applied to the magnetically confined plasma sphere. The effect of the external magnetic field on the current drive and field configuration is studied. The results obtained are important for continuous current drive experiments in compact toruses. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Nonlinear interactions of azimuthal surface waves in magnetoactive plasma filled waveguides

This paper deals with the theoretical studies of nonlinear interactions of azimuthal surface waves (ASW) in cylindrical metal waveguides fully filled by a uniform magnetoactive plasma. These surface-type wave perturbations propagate in azimuthal direction across an external magnetic field, which is directed along the waveguide axis. The ASW is a relatively new kind of surface waves and so far the nonlinear effects associated with their propagation are outside the scope of scientific issues. They are characterized by a discrete set of mode numbers values which define the ASW eigenfrequencies. This fact leads to several peculiarities of ASW compared with ordinary surface-type waves.

Nonlinear secret sharing immune against cheating

The paper investigates the design of secret sharing that is immune against cheating (as defined by the Tompa-Woll attack). We examine secret sharing with binary shares and secrets. Bounds on the probability of successful cheating are given for two cases. The first case relates to secret sharing based on bent functions and results in a non-perfect scheme. The second case considers perfect secret sharing built on highly nonlinear balanced Boolean functions.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for a multi-rotor with heavy slung load

In this paper a novel controller for stable and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung loads is introduced. First, simplified equations of motions for the multi-rotor and slung load are derived. The model is then used to design a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) that can manage the highly nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. The controller is shown to simultaneously track specified waypoints whilst actively damping large slung load oscillations. A Linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is also derived, and control performance is compared in simulation. Results show the improved performance of the Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) controller over a larger flight envelope, including aggressive maneuvers and large slung load displacements. Computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementation. Such systems for small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may provide significant benefit to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction.

A gray-box neural network-based model identification and fault estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamic systems

A novel gray-box neural network model (GBNNM), including multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network (NN) and integrators, is proposed for a model identification and fault estimation (MIFE) scheme. With the GBNNM, both the nonlinearity and dynamics of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems can be approximated. Unlike previous NN-based model identification methods, the GBNNM directly inherits system dynamics and separately models system nonlinearities. This model corresponds well with the object system and is easy to build. The GBNNM is embedded online as a normal model reference to obtain the quantitative residual between the object system output and the GBNNM output. This residual can accurately indicate the fault offset value, so it is suitable for differing fault severities. To further estimate the fault parameters (FPs), an improved extended state observer (ESO) using the same NNs (IESONN) from the GBNNM is proposed to avoid requiring the knowledge of ESO nonlinearity. Then, the proposed MIFE scheme is applied for reaction wheels (RW) in a satellite attitude control system (SACS). The scheme using the GBNNM is compared with other NNs in the same fault scenario, and several partial loss of effect (LOE) faults with different severities are considered to validate the effectiveness of the FP estimation and its superiority.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.