Heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : spatial variation and area-level predictors

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of illness and death in many locations across the globe, including subtropical Australia. The possibility of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves warrants continued efforts to reduce this health burden, which could be accomplished by targeting intervention measures toward the most vulnerable communities. Objectives: We sought to quantify spatial variability in heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia, to highlight regions of the city with the greatest risk. We also aimed to find area-level social and environmental determinants of high risk within Brisbane. Methods: We used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine city-wide and intracity associations between temperature and morbidity using a 2007–2011 time series of geographically referenced hospital admissions data. The models accounted for long-term time trends, seasonality, and day of week and holiday effects. Results: On average, a 10°C increase in daily maximum temperature during the summer was associated with a 7.2% increase in hospital admissions (95% CI: 4.7, 9.8%) on the following day. Positive statistically significant relationships between admissions and temperature were found for 16 of the city’s 158 areas; negative relationships were found for 5 areas. High-risk areas were associated with a lack of high income earners and higher population density. Conclusions: Geographically targeted public health strategies for extreme heat may be effective in Brisbane, because morbidity risk was found to be spatially variable. Emergency responders, health officials, and city planners could focus on short- and long-term intervention measures that reach communities in the city with lower incomes and higher population densities, including reduction of urban heat island effects.

“My hands are plunged in oranges”…: an experiential account of a working process

This presentation incorporated the live performance throughout, by the author, of movement from “The All Weather Project” by Liz Roche. Movement sections are indicated by italics. “I am going to start by dancing for you… Movement: Live performance of solo approximately 10 minutes in duration This is the introduction... Through my PhD research, I am examining the choreographic process from the perspective of the independent contemporary dancer, through embodying this role as a researcher/participant. My methodological frameworks, which utilise video documentation and journal writing, could be characterised as ethnographic, multi-modal embodied theorising, leading to “multi-dimensional theorising” (I adopt this term from Susan Melrose). In this way, I am unwinding the embodied practice of dancing, through the co-existent layers of experience, towards forming a theoretical understanding of the issues that arise for the dancer. The issues that I have identified as relevant to my research are those relating to the dancer’s ‘moving identity’ or way of moving, as a mutable and adaptable form that must alter and re-adjust to each different choreographic engram or movement vocabulary, that she/he encounters. I am examining this interplay between stability and change. I also reflect on the impact of destabilisation and flux on the dancer’s identity in a wider sense, as she/he relates outwardly to signifying factors within the social strata. Today I am going to bring you through a reflection on the working process of a dance piece as experienced from the inside. By doing so, I hope to capture and elucidate the multi-dimensional layers which existed for me within this process. Through displaying these fragments together, I endeavour to invoke the ‘totality’ of the experience...

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Exploring Australian intensive care physicians clinical judgement during donation after cardiac death : an exploratory qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) is one possible solution to the world wide organ shortage. Intensive care physicians are central to DCD becoming successful since they are responsible for making the clinical judgements and decisions associated with DCD. Yet international evidence shows health care professionals have not embraced DCD and are often reluctant to consider it as an option for patients. PURPOSE: To explore intensive care physicians' clinical judgements when selecting a suitable DCD candidate. METHODS: Using interpretative exploratory methods six intensive care physicians were interviewed from three hospital sites in Australia. Following verbatim transcription, data was subjected to thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Three distinct themes emerged. Reducing harm and increasing benefit was a major focus of intensive care physicians during determination of DCD. There was an acceptance of DCD if there was clear evidence that donation was what the patient and family wanted. Characteristics of a defensible decision reflected the characteristics of sequencing, separation and isolation, timing, consensus and collaboration, trust and communication to ensure that judgements were robust and defensible. The final theme revealed the importance of minimising uncertainty and discomfort when predicting length of survival following withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment. CONCLUSION: DCD decisions are made within an environment of uncertainty due to the imprecision associated with predicting time of death. Lack of certainty contributed to the cautious and collaborative strategies used by intensive care physicians when dealing with patients, family members and colleagues around end-of-life decisions, initiation of withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and the discussion about DCD. This study recommends that nationally consistent policies are urgently needed to increase the degree of certainty for intensive care staff concerning the DCD processes.

Detecting approximate clones in business process model repositories

Empirical evidence shows that repositories of business process models used in industrial practice contain significant amounts of duplication. This duplication arises for example when the repository covers multiple variants of the same processes or due to copy-pasting. Previous work has addressed the problem of efficiently retrieving exact clones that can be refactored into shared subprocess models. This article studies the broader problem of approximate clone detection in process models. The article proposes techniques for detecting clusters of approximate clones based on two well-known clustering algorithms: DBSCAN and Hi- erarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC). The article also defines a measure of standardizability of an approximate clone cluster, meaning the potential benefit of replacing the approximate clones with a single standardized subprocess. Experiments show that both techniques, in conjunction with the proposed standardizability measure, accurately retrieve clusters of approximate clones that originate from copy-pasting followed by independent modifications to the copied fragments. Additional experiments show that both techniques produce clusters that match those produced by human subjects and that are perceived to be standardizable.

Occupational Health and Safety, Courts and Crime: the legal construction of occupational health and safety offences in Victoria

This book reports on an empirically-based study of the manner in which the Magistrates' Courts in Victoria, construct occupational health and safety (OHS) issues when hearing prosecutions for offences under the Victorian OHS legislation. Prosecution has always been a controversial element in the enforcement armoury of OHS regulators, but at the same time it has long been argued that the low level of fines imposed by courts has had an important chilling effect on the OHS inspectorate's enforcement approaches, and on the impact of OHS legislation. Using a range of empirical research methods, including three samples of OHS prosecutions carried out in the Victorian Magistrates' Courts, Professor Johnstone shows how courts, inspectors, prosecutors and defence counsel are involved in filtering or reshaping OHS issues during the prosecution process, both pre-trial and in court. He argues that OHS offences are constructed by focusing on "events", in most cases incidents resulting in injury or death. This "event-focus" ensures that the attention of the parties is drawn to the details of the incident, and away from the broader context of the event. During the court-based sentencing process defence counsel is able to adopt a range of techniques which isolate the incident from its micro and macro contexts, thereby individualising and decontextualising the incident.

An organization of visual and auditory fear conditioning in the lateral amygdala

Pavlovian fear conditioning is an evolutionary conserved and extensively studied form of associative learning and memory. In mammals, the lateral amygdala (LA) is an essential locus for Pavlovian fear learning and memory. Despite significant progress unraveling the cellular mechanisms responsible for fear conditioning, very little is known about the anatomical organization of neurons encoding fear conditioning in the LA. One key question is how fear conditioning to different sensory stimuli is organized in LA neuronal ensembles. Here we show that Pavlovian fear conditioning, formed through either the auditory or visual sensory modality, activates a similar density of LA neurons expressing a learning-induced phosphorylated extracellular signal-regulated kinase (p-ERK1/2). While the size of the neuron population specific to either memory was similar, the anatomical distribution differed. Several discrete sites in the LA contained a small but significant number of p-ERK1/2-expressing neurons specific to either sensory modality. The sites were anatomically localized to different levels of the longitudinal plane and were independent of both memory strength and the relative size of the activated neuronal population, suggesting some portion of the memory trace for auditory and visually cued fear conditioning is allocated differently in the LA. Presenting the visual stimulus by itself did not activate the same p-ERK1/2 neuron density or pattern, confirming the novelty of light alone cannot account for the specific pattern of activated neurons after visual fear conditioning. Together, these findings reveal an anatomical distribution of visual and auditory fear conditioning at the level of neuronal ensembles in the LA.

System dynamics model of the knowledge management process

To effectively manage the challenges being faced by construction organisations in a fast changing business environment, many organisations are attempting to integrate knowledge management (KM) into their business operations. KM activities interact with each other and form a process which receives input from its internal business environment and produces outputs that should be justified by its business performance. This paper aims to provide further understanding on the dynamic nature of the KM process. Through a combination of path analysis and system dynamic simulation, this study found that: 1) an improved business performance enables active KM activities and provide feedback and guidance for formulating learning-based policies; and 2) effective human resource recruitment policies can enlarge the pool of individual knowledge, which lead to a more conducive internal business environment, as well as a higher KM activity level. Consequently, the desired business performance level can be reached within a shorter time frame.

The pattern of coupling dynamics between postural motion, isotonic hand movements and physiological tremor

This study was designed to examine differences in the coupling dynamics between upper limb motion, physiological tremor and whole body postural sway in young healthy adults. Acceleration of the hand and fingers, forearm EMG activity and postural sway data were recorded. Estimation of the degree of bilateral and limb motion-postural sway coupling was determined by cross correlation, coherence and Cross-ApEn analyses. The results of the analysis revealed that, under postural tremor conditions, there was no significant coupling between limbs, muscles or sway across all metrics of coupling. In contrast, performing a rapid alternating flexion/extension movement about the wrist joint (with one or both limbs) resulted in stronger coupling between limb motion and postural sway. These results support the view that, for physiological tremor responses, the control of postural sway is maintained independent to tremor in the upper limb. However, increasing the level of movement about a distal segment of one arm (or both) leads to increased coupling throughout the body. The basis for this increased coupling would appear to be related to the enhanced neural drive to task-specific muscles within the upper limb.

Development of a transient, high-level expression platform for protein production in plants

Plants are an attractive alternative to conventional expression systems for the production of recombinant proteins and useful biologics, however, the economic viability of plant made proteins is strongly yield dependent. This study aimed to improve transgene expression levels in the plant host Nicotiana benthamiana using the Agroinfiltration transient expression platform. Independent investigation of the physical, chemical and genetic features associated with Agroinfiltration identified factors that improved transformation frequencies, elevated transgene expression levels and ultimately improved protein yield. The major outcome of this research was a novel hyper-expression system for biofarming recombinant proteins in plants.

Keeping it natural: Does persuasive magazine content have an effect on young women's intentions for birth?

Information in the popular media tends to be biased toward promoting the benefits of medicalized birth for low-risk pregnancies. We aimed to assess the effect of communicating the benefits of non-medicalized birth in magazine articles on women’s birth intentions and to identify the mechanisms by which social communication messages affected women’s intentions for birth. A convenience sample of 180 nulliparous Australian women aged 18–35 years were randomly exposed to a magazine article endorsing non-medicalized birth (using either celebrity or non-celebrity endorsement) or organic eating (control) throughout June–July 2011. Magazine articles that endorsed non-medicalized birth targeted perceived risk of birth, expectations for labor and birth, and attitudes toward birth. These variables and intention for birth were assessed by self-report before and after exposure. Exposure to a magazine article that endorsed non-medicalized birth significantly reduced women’s intentions for a medicalized birth, regardless of whether the endorsement was by celebrities or non-celebrities. Changes in perceived risk of birth mediated the effect of magazine article exposure on women’s intentions for a medicalized birth. Persuasive communication that endorses non-medicalized birth could be delivered at the population level and may reduce women’s intentions for a medicalized birth.

The effectiveness of information-sharing interventions to reduce anxiety in families waiting for surgical patients undergoing an elective surgical procedure: A systematic review

Background Whilst waiting for patients undergoing surgery, a lack of information regarding the patient’s status and the outcome of surgery, can contribute to the anxiety experienced by family members. Effective strategies for providing information to families are therefore required. Objectives To synthesize the best available evidence in relation to the most effective information-sharing interventions to reduce anxiety for families waiting for patients undergoing an elective surgical procedure. Inclusion criteria Types of participants All studies of family members over 18 years of age waiting for patients undergoing an elective surgical procedure were included, including those waiting for both adult and pediatric patients.   Types of intervention All information-sharing interventions for families of patients undergoing an elective surgical procedure were eligible for inclusion in the review. Types of studies All randomized controlled trials (RCTs) quasi-experimental studies, case-controlled and descriptive studies, comparing one information-sharing intervention to another or to usual care were eligible for inclusion in the review. Types of outcomes Primary outcome: The level of anxiety amongst family members or close relatives whilst waiting for patients undergoing surgery, as measured by a validated instrument such as the S-Anxiety portion of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). Secondary outcomes: Family satisfaction and other measurements that may be considered indicators of stress and anxiety, such as mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate. Search strategy A comprehensive search, restricted to English language only, was undertaken of the following databases from 1990 to May 2013: Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, ProQuest, Web of Science, PsycINFO, Scopus, Dissertation and Theses PQDT (via ProQuest), Current Contents, CENTRAL, Google Scholar, OpenGrey, Clinical Trials, Science.gov, Current Controlled Trials and National Institute for Clinical Studies (NHMRC). Methodological quality Two independent reviewers critically appraised retrieved papers for methodological quality using the standardized critical appraisal instruments for randomized controlled trials and descriptive studies from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instruments (JBI-MAStARI). Data extraction Two independent reviewers extracted data from included papers using a customized data extraction form. Data synthesis Statistical pooling was not possible, mainly due to issues with data reporting in two of the studies, therefore the results are presented in narrative form. Results Three studies with a total of 357 participants were included in the review. In-person reporting to family members was found to be effective in comparison with usual care in which no reports were provided. Telephone reporting was also found to be effective at reducing anxiety, in comparison with usual care, although not as effective as in-person reporting. The use of paging devices to keep family members informed were found to increase, rather than decrease anxiety. Conclusions Due to the lack of high quality research in this area, the strength of the conclusions are limited. It appears that in-person and telephone reporting to family members decreases anxiety, however the use of paging devices increases anxiety.

The Thoughts Questionnaire (TQ) for family caregivers of people with dementia

Objectives: To develop a new measure of dysfunctional thoughts for family caregivers of people living with dementia. These thoughts can contribute to negative outcomes, but they may be modifiable. Method: A stepwise process was used to develop the Thoughts Questionnaire, commencing with item generation, concept mapping, and pilot testing in a sample of professional and nonprofessional caregivers of people with dementia (n = 18). Next, an independent sample of 35 family caregivers of people with dementia (30 female; M age = 64.30, standard deviation = 10.65) completed: (a) the Thoughts Questionnaire; (b) an existing measure of dysfunctional thoughts, the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire; and (c) separate validated measures of depressive symptoms, caregiver stress, and coping, respectively. Results: The level of agreement with dysfunctional thought statements from the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire and Thoughts Questionnaire was low. However, a small number of Thoughts Questionnaire statements were strongly endorsed by over 85% of the sample. Both dysfunctional thought measures had adequate reliability, but total scores were not significantly intercorrelated (r = .287, p = .095). Only the Thoughts Questionnaire was significantly, positively correlated with most caregiver stress measures. Thoughts Questionnaire items required a much lower reading level than the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire items. Discussion: This study provides preliminary data on a tool for assessing the negative role-related thoughts that family caregivers of people with dementia may experience. Given that these thoughts are implicated in depression but they may be modified, the capacity to identify dysfunctional thoughts may prove useful in caregiver support programs.

Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity

Background Multi-strategic community wide interventions for physical activity are increasingly popular but their ability to achieve population level improvements is unknown. Objectives To evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon population levels of physical activity. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Public Health Group Segment of the Cochrane Register of Studies,The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, PsycINFO, ASSIA, the British Nursing Index, Chinese CNKI databases, EPPI Centre (DoPHER, TRoPHI), ERIC, HMIC, Sociological Abstracts, SPORTDiscus, Transport Database and Web of Science (Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index). We also scanned websites of the EU Platform on Diet, Physical Activity and Health; Health-Evidence.org; the International Union for Health Promotion and Education; the NIHR Coordinating Centre for Health Technology (NCCHTA); the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and NICE and SIGN guidelines. Reference lists of all relevant systematic reviews, guidelines and primary studies were searched and we contacted experts in the field. The searches were updated to 16 January 2014, unrestricted by language or publication status. Selection criteria Cluster randomised controlled trials, randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental designs which used a control population for comparison, interrupted time-series studies, and prospective controlled cohort studies were included. Only studies with a minimum six-month follow up from the start of the intervention to measurement of outcomes were included. Community wide interventions had to comprise at least two broad strategies aimed at physical activity for the whole population. Studies which randomised individuals from the same community were excluded. Data collection and analysis At least two review authors independently extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias. Each study was assessed for the setting, the number of included components and their intensity. The primary outcome measures were grouped according to whether they were dichotomous (per cent physically active, per cent physically active during leisure time, and per cent physically inactive) or continuous (leisure time physical activity time (time spent)), walking (time spent), energy expenditure (as metabolic equivalents or METS)). For dichotomous measures we calculated the unadjusted and adjusted risk difference, and the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk. For continuous measures we calculated percentage change from baseline, unadjusted and adjusted. Main results After the selection process had been completed, 33 studies were included. A total of 267 communities were included in the review (populations between 500 and 1.9 million). Of the included studies, 25 were set in high income countries and eight were in low income countries. The interventions varied by the number of strategies included and their intensity. Almost all of the interventions included a component of building partnerships with local governments or non-governmental organisations (NGOs) (29 studies). None of the studies provided results by socio-economic disadvantage or other markers of equity. However, of those included studies undertaken in high income countries, 14 studies were described as being provided to deprived, disadvantaged or low socio-economic communities. Nineteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias, 10 studies were unclear, and four studies had a low risk of bias. Selection bias was a major concern with these studies, with only five studies using randomisation to allocate communities. Four studies were judged as being at low risk of selection bias although 19 studies were considered to have an unclear risk of bias. Twelve studies had a high risk of detection bias, 13 an unclear risk and four a low risk of bias. Generally, the better designed studies showed no improvement in the primary outcome measure of physical activity at a population level. All four of the newly included, and judged to be at low risk of bias, studies (conducted in Japan, United Kingdom and USA) used randomisation to allocate the intervention to the communities. Three studies used a cluster randomised design and one study used a stepped wedge design. The approach to measuring the primary outcome of physical activity was better in these four studies than in many of the earlier studies. One study obtained objective population representative measurements of physical activity by accelerometers, while the remaining three low-risk studies used validated self-reported measures. The study using accelerometry, conducted in low income, high crime communities of USA, emphasised social marketing, partnership with police and environmental improvements. No change in the seven-day average daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity was observed during the two years of operation. Some program level effect was observed with more people walking in the intervention community, however this result was not evident in the whole community. Similarly, the two studies conducted in the United Kingdom (one in rural villages and the other in urban London; both using communication, partnership and environmental strategies) found no improvement in the mean levels of energy expenditure per person per week, measured from one to four years from baseline. None of the three low risk studies reporting a dichotomous outcome of physical activity found improvements associated with the intervention. Overall, there was a noticeable absence of reporting of benefit in physical activity for community wide interventions in the included studies. However, as a group, the interventions undertaken in China appeared to have the greatest possibility of success with high participation rates reported. Reporting bias was evident with two studies failing to report physical activity measured at follow up. No adverse events were reported.The data pertaining to cost and sustainability of the interventions were limited and varied. Authors' conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is a noticeable inconsistency of the findings in the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. The body of evidence in this review does not support the hypothesis that the multi-component community wide interventions studied effectively increased physical activity for the population, although some studies with environmental components observed more people walking. Plain language summary Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity Not having enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one's health and wellbeing. The lack of physical activity is a common and in some cases a growing health problem. To address this, 33 studies have used improvement activities directed at communities, using more than one approach in a single program. When we first looked at the available research in 2011 we observed that there was a lack of good studies which could show whether this approach was beneficial or not. Some studies claimed that community wide programs improved physical activities and other studies did not. In this update we found four new studies that were of good quality; however none of these four studies increased physical activity levels for the population. Some studies reported program level effects such as observing more people walking, however the population level of physical activity had not increased. This review found that community wide interventions are very difficult to undertake, and it appears that they usually fail to provide a measurable benefit in physical activity for a population. It is apparent that many of the interventions failed to reach a substantial portion of the community, and we speculate that some single strategies included in the combination may lack individual effectiveness. Laički sažetak Intervencije u zajednici za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti Nedostatna tjelesna aktivnost povezana je s lošijim zdravljem.Redovita tjelesna aktivnost može umanjiti rizik od kroničnih bolesti te poboljšati zdravlje i kvalitetu života pojedinca.Manjak tjelesne aktivnosti čest je problem, a učestalost tog problema se povećava.Cochrane sustavni pregled je analizirao 33 studije koje su istražile programe za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici, u kojima se koristilo više od jednog pristupa.Kad su prvi put pregledani dokazi iz istraživanja koja su bila dostupna 2011. godine, utvrđeno je da nema dovoljno dobrih studija koje bi mogle pokazati je li takav pristup koristan ili ne.Primjerice, neke studije tvrde da programi za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici poboljšavaju tjelesnu aktivnost pojedinaca u zajednici, a druge studije tvrde suprotno.U ovom obnovljenom sustavnom pregledu pronađene su 4 nove studije koje su bile visoke kvalitete, ail nijedna od tih studija nije pokazala da je istraživana intervencija dovela do povećanja tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici.Neke su studije opisale učinak na način da je opisano da je uočeno da više ljudi u zajednici hoda, međutim, ukupna razina tjelesne aktivnosti u promatranoj populaciji nije se povećala.Ovaj sustavni pregled je utvrdio da je intervencije za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici teško provesti i čini se da one obično ne uspijevaju u svojoj namjeri da na mjerljiv način povećaju tjelesnu aktivnost u populaciji.Čini se da mnoge intervencije nisu uspjele doseći veći broj stanovnika u zajednici pa se može smatrati da neke od strategija uključene u analizirane kombinacije nisu zasebno učinkovite.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.