487 resultados para Empirical Models


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This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we argue that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the enabling mechanisms. We introduce a business example using SAP modeling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

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After the recent prolonged drought conditions in many parts of Australia it is increasingly recognised that many groundwater systems are under stress. Although this is obvious for systems that are utilised for intensive irrigation many other groundwater systems are also impacted.Management strategies are highly variable to non-existent. Policy and regulation are also often inadequate, and are reactive or politically driven. In addition, there is a wide range of opinion by water users and other stakeholders as to what is “reasonable”management practice. These differences are often related to the “value”that is put on the groundwater resource. Opinions vary from “our right to free water”to an awareness that without effective management the resource will be degraded. There is also often misunderstanding of surface water-groundwater linkages, recharge processes, and baseflow to drainage systems.

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An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

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We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

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This paper describes an experiment undertaken to investigate intuitive interaction, particularly in older adults. Previous work has shown that intuitive interaction relies on past experience, and has also suggested that older people demonstrate less intuitive uses and slower times when completing set tasks with various devices. Similarly, this experiment showed that past experience with relevant products allowed people to use the interfaces of two different microwaves more quickly, although there were no significant differences between the different microwaves. It also revealed that certain aspects of cognitive decline related to aging, such as central executive function, have more impact on time, correct uses and intuitive uses than chronological age. Implications of these results and further work in this area are discussed.

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Effective management of groundwater requires stakeholders to have a realistic conceptual understanding of the groundwater systems and hydrological processes.However, groundwater data can be complex, confusing and often difficult for people to comprehend..A powerful way to communicate understanding of groundwater processes, complex subsurface geology and their relationships is through the use of visualisation techniques to create 3D conceptual groundwater models. In addition, the ability to animate, interrogate and interact with 3D models can encourage a higher level of understanding than static images alone. While there are increasing numbers of software tools available for developing and visualising groundwater conceptual models, these packages are often very expensive and are not readily accessible to majority people due to complexity. .The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) is a software framework that can be used to develop groundwater visualisation tools aimed specifically at non-technical computer users and those who are not groundwater domain experts. A primary aim of GVS is to provide management support for agencies, and enhancecommunity understanding.

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Mainstream business process modelling techniques promote a design paradigm wherein the activities to be performed within a case, together with their usual execution order, form the backbone of a process model, on top of which other aspects are anchored. This paradigm, while eective in standardised and production-oriented domains, shows some limitations when confronted with processes where case-by-case variations and exceptions are the norm. In this thesis we develop the idea that the eective design of exible process models calls for an alternative modelling paradigm, one in which process models are modularised along key business objects, rather than along activity decompositions. The research follows a design science method, starting from the formulation of a research problem expressed in terms of requirements, and culminating in a set of artifacts that have been devised to satisfy these requirements. The main contributions of the thesis are: (i) a meta-model for object-centric process modelling incorporating constructs for capturing exible processes; (ii) a transformation from this meta-model to an existing activity-centric process modelling language, namely YAWL, showing the relation between object-centric and activity-centric process modelling approaches; and (iii) a Coloured Petri Net that captures the semantics of the proposed meta-model. The meta-model has been evaluated using a framework consisting of a set of work ow patterns. Moreover, the meta-model has been embodied in a modelling tool that has been used to capture two industrial scenarios.

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Background: SEQ Catchments Ltd and QUT are collaborating on groundwater investigations in the SE Qld region, which utilise community engagement and 3D Visualisation methodologies. The projects, which have been funded by the Australian Government’s NHT and Caring for our Country programmes, were initiated from local community concerns regarding groundwater sustainability and quality in areas where little was previously known. ----- Objectives: Engage local and regional stakeholders to tap all available sources of information;•Establish on-going (2 years +) community-based groundwater / surface water monitoring programmes;•Develop 3D Visualisation from all available data; and•Involve, train and inform the local community for improved on-ground land and water use management. ----- Results and findings: Respectful community engagement yielded information, access to numerous monitoring sites and education opportunities at low cost, which would otherwise be unavailable. A Framework for Community-Based Groundwater Monitoring has been documented (Todd, 2008).A 3D visualisation models have been developed for basaltic settings, which relate surface features familiar to the local community with the interpreted sub-surface hydrogeology. Groundwater surface movements have been animated and compared to local rainfall using the time-series monitoring data.An important 3D visualisation feature of particular interest to the community was the interaction between groundwater and surface water. This factor was crucial in raising awareness of potential impacts of land and water use on groundwater and surface water resources.

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This article presents a survey of authorisation models and considers their ‘fitness-for-purpose’ in facilitating information sharing. Network-supported information sharing is an important technical capability that underpins collaboration in support of dynamic and unpredictable activities such as emergency response, national security, infrastructure protection, supply chain integration and emerging business models based on the concept of a ‘virtual organisation’. The article argues that present authorisation models are inflexible and poorly scalable in such dynamic environments due to their assumption that the future needs of the system can be predicted, which in turn justifies the use of persistent authorisation policies. The article outlines the motivation and requirement for a new flexible authorisation model that addresses the needs of information sharing. It proposes that a flexible and scalable authorisation model must allow an explicit specification of the objectives of the system and access decisions must be made based on a late trade-off analysis between these explicit objectives. A research agenda for the proposed Objective-based Access Control concept is presented.

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Games and related virtual environments have been a much-hyped area of the entertainment industry. The classic quote is that games are now approaching the size of Hollywood box office sales [1]. Books are now appearing that talk up the influence of games on business [2], and it is one of the key drivers of present hardware development. Some of this 3D technology is now embedded right down at the operating system level via the Windows Presentation Foundations – hit Windows/Tab on your Vista box to find out... In addition to this continued growth in the area of games, there are a number of factors that impact its development in the business community. Firstly, the average age of gamers is approaching the mid thirties. Therefore, a number of people who are in management positions in large enterprises are experienced in using 3D entertainment environments. Secondly, due to the pressure of demand for more computational power in both CPU and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), your average desktop, any decent laptop, can run a game or virtual environment. In fact, the demonstrations at the end of this paper were developed at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) on a standard Software Operating Environment, with an Intel Dual Core CPU and basic Intel graphics option. What this means is that the potential exists for the easy uptake of such technology due to 1. a broad range of workers being regularly exposed to 3D virtual environment software via games; 2. present desktop computing power now strong enough to potentially roll out a virtual environment solution across an entire enterprise. We believe such visual simulation environments can have a great impact in the area of business process modeling. Accordingly, in this article we will outline the communication capabilities of such environments, giving fantastic possibilities for business process modeling applications, where enterprises need to create, manage, and improve their business processes, and then communicate their processes to stakeholders, both process and non-process cognizant. The article then concludes with a demonstration of the work we are doing in this area at QUT.

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Purpose: In 1970, Enright observed a distortion of perceived driving speed, induced by monocular application of a neutral density (ND) filter. If a driver looks out of the right side of a vehicle with a filter over the right eye, the driver perceives a reduction of the vehicle’s apparent velocity, while applying a ND filter over the left eye increases the vehicle’s apparent velocity. The purpose of the current study was to provide the first empirical measurements of the Enright phenomenon. Methods: Ten experienced drivers were tested and drove an automatic sedan on a closed road circuit. Filters (0.9 ND) were placed over the left, right or both eyes during a driving run, in addition to a control condition with no filters in place. Subjects were asked to look out of the right side of the car and adjust their driving speed to either 40 km/h or 60 km/h. Results: Without a filter or with both eyes filtered subjects showed good estimation of speed when asked to travel at 60 km/h but travelled a mean of 12 to 14 km/h faster than the requested 40 km/h. Subjects travelled faster than these baselines by a mean of 7 to 9 km/h (p < 0.001) with the filter over their right eye, and 3 to 5 km/h slower with the filter over their left eye (p < 0.05). Conclusions: The Enright phenomenon causes significant and measurable distortions of perceived driving speed under realworld driving conditions.

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The performance of iris recognition systems is significantly affected by the segmentation accuracy, especially in non- ideal iris images. This paper proposes an improved method to localise non-circular iris images quickly and accurately. Shrinking and expanding active contour methods are consolidated when localising inner and outer iris boundaries. First, the pupil region is roughly estimated based on histogram thresholding and morphological operations. There- after, a shrinking active contour model is used to precisely locate the inner iris boundary. Finally, the estimated inner iris boundary is used as an initial contour for an expanding active contour scheme to find the outer iris boundary. The proposed scheme is robust in finding exact the iris boundaries of non-circular and off-angle irises. In addition, occlusions of the iris images from eyelids and eyelashes are automatically excluded from the detected iris region. Experimental results on CASIA v3.0 iris databases indicate the accuracy of proposed technique.

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The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.

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This paper firstly presents an extended ambiguity resolution model that deals with an ill-posed problem and constraints among the estimated parameters. In the extended model, the regularization criterion is used instead of the traditional least squares in order to estimate the float ambiguities better. The existing models can be derived from the general model. Secondly, the paper examines the existing ambiguity searching methods from four aspects: exclusion of nuisance integer candidates based on the available integer constraints; integer rounding; integer bootstrapping and integer least squares estimations. Finally, this paper systematically addresses the similarities and differences between the generalized TCAR and decorrelation methods from both theoretical and practical aspects.

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In this paper, the problems of three carrier phase ambiguity resolution (TCAR) and position estimation (PE) are generalized as real time GNSS data processing problems for a continuously observing network on large scale. In order to describe these problems, a general linear equation system is presented to uniform various geometry-free, geometry-based and geometry-constrained TCAR models, along with state transition questions between observation times. With this general formulation, generalized TCAR solutions are given to cover different real time GNSS data processing scenarios, and various simplified integer solutions, such as geometry-free rounding and geometry-based LAMBDA solutions with single and multiple-epoch measurements. In fact, various ambiguity resolution (AR) solutions differ in the floating ambiguity estimation and integer ambiguity search processes, but their theoretical equivalence remains under the same observational systems models and statistical assumptions. TCAR performance benefits as outlined from the data analyses in some recent literatures are reviewed, showing profound implications for the future GNSS development from both technology and application perspectives.