Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

A bondgraph approach to formation control using relative state measurements

In this paper we apply port-Hamiltonian theory with the bondgraph modelling approach to the problem of formation control using partial measurements of relative positions. We present a control design that drives a group of vehicles to a desired formation without requiring inter-vehicle communications or global position and velocity measurements to be available. Our generic approach is applicable to any form of relative measurement between vehicles, but we specifically consider the important cases of relative bearings and relative distances. In the case of bearings, our theory closely relates to the field of image-based visual servo (IBVS) control. We present simulation results to support the developed theory.

A class B switch-mode assisted linear amplifier

A switch-mode assisted linear amplifier (SMALA) combining a linear (Class B) and a switch-mode (Class D) amplifier is presented. The usual single hysteretic controlled half-bridge current dumping stage is replaced by two parallel buck converter stages, in a parallel voltage controlled topology. These operate independently: one buck converter sources current to assist the upper Class B output device, and a complementary converter sinks current to assist the lower device. This topology lends itself to a novel control approach of a dead-band at low power levels where neither class D amplifier assists, allowing the class B amplifier to supply the load without interference, ensuring high fidelity. A 20 W implementation demonstrates 85% efficiency, with distortion below 0.08% measured across the full audio bandwidth at 15 W. The class D amplifier begins assisting at 2 W, and below this value, the distortion was below 0.03%. Complete circuitry is given, showing the simplicity of the additional class D amplifier and its corresponding control circuitry.

Distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autoflourescence in a population-based study : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF) in an adult population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island, South Pacific Ocean. In all, 641 people, aged 15 to 89 years, were recruited. UVAF and standard (control) photographs were taken of the nasal and temporal interpalpebral regions bilaterally. Differences between the groups for non-normally distributed continuous variables were assessed using the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney ranksum test. Trends across categories were assessed using Cuzick's non-parametric test for trend or Kendall's rank correlation τ. RESULTS: Conjunctival UVAF is a non-parametric trait with a positively skewed distribution. Median amount of conjunctival UVAF per person (sum of four measurements; right nasal/temporal and left nasal/temporal) was 28.2 mm(2) (interquartile range 14.5-48.2). There was an inverse, linear relationship between UVAF and advancing age (P<0.001). Males had a higher sum of UVAF compared with females (34.4 mm(2) vs 23.2 mm(2), P<0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences in area of UVAF between right and left eyes or between nasal and temporal regions. CONCLUSION: We have provided the first quantifiable estimates of conjunctival UVAF in an adult population. Further data are required to provide information about the natural history of UVAF and to characterise other potential disease associations with UVAF. UVR protective strategies should be emphasised at an early age to prevent the long-term adverse effects on health associated with excess UVR.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

First measurements of source apportionment of organic aerosols in the Southern Hemisphere

An Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer was deployed at five urban schools to examine spatial and temporal variability of organic aerosols (OA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) used for the first time in the Southern Hemisphere to apportion the sources of the OA across an urban area. The sources identified included hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA) and oxygenated OA (OOA). At all sites, the main source was OOA, which accounted for 62–73% of the total OA mass and was generally more oxidized compared to those reported in the Northern Hemisphere. This suggests that there are differences in aging processes or regional sources in the two hemispheres. Unlike HOA and BBOA, OOA demonstrated instructive temporal variations but not spatial variation across the urban area. Application of cluster analysis to the PMF-derived sources offered a simple and effective method for qualitative comparison of PMF sources that can be used in other studies.

Non-linear position control for hover and automatic landing of unmanned aerial vehicles

This study presents a disturbance attenuation controller for horizontal position stabilisation for hover and automatic landings of a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV) operating close to the landing deck in rough seas. Based on a helicopter model representing aerodynamics during the landing phase, a non-linear state feedback H∞ controller is designed to achieve rapid horizontal position tracking in a gusty environment. Practical constraints including flapping dynamics, servo dynamics and time lag effect are considered. A high-fidelity closed-loop simulation using parameters of the Vario XLC gas-turbine helicopter verifies performance of the proposed horizontal position controller. The proposed controller not only increases the disturbance attenuation capability of the RUAV, but also enables rapid position response when gusts occur. Comparative studies show that the H∞ controller exhibits performance improvement and can be applied to ship/RUAV landing systems.

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

Hysteretic multilevel NPC converter control for a Switch Mode Assisted Linear Amplifier

A Switch-Mode Assisted Linear Amplifier (SMALA) combines the high quality of a linear amplifier required for audio applications with the high efficiency of a switch-mode amplifier. The careful choice of current sense point and switch placement allows a simple non-isolated hysteresis current controller for the switch-mode section. This paper explains the extension of the hysteresis current controller for the control of a three level Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) converter, with simulations as proof of concept. The NPC topology allows the use of lower voltage switches and lower switching frequencies to implement high power audio amplifiers using the SMALA topology.

Board age and gender diversity : a test of competing linear and curvilinear predictions

The inconsistent findings of past board diversity research demand a test of competing linear and curvilinear diversity–performance predictions. This research focuses on board age and gender diversity, and presents a positive linear prediction based on resource dependence theory, a negative linear prediction based on social identity theory, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction based on the integration of resource dependence theory with social identity theory. The predictions were tested using archival data on 288 large organizations listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, with a 1-year time lag between diversity (age and gender) and performance (employee productivity and return on assets). The results indicate a positive linear relationship between gender diversity and employee productivity, a negative linear relationship between age diversity and return on assets, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between age diversity and return on assets. The findings provide additional evidence on the business case for board gender diversity and refine the business case for board age diversity.

A simplified approach for calculating the moments of action for linear reaction-diffusion equations

The mean action time is the mean of a probability density function that can be interpreted as a critical time, which is a finite estimate of the time taken for the transient solution of a reaction-diffusion equation to effectively reach steady state. For high-variance distributions, the mean action time under-approximates the critical time since it neglects to account for the spread about the mean. We can improve our estimate of the critical time by calculating the higher moments of the probability density function, called the moments of action, which provide additional information regarding the spread about the mean. Existing methods for calculating the nth moment of action require the solution of n nonhomogeneous boundary value problems which can be difficult and tedious to solve exactly. Here we present a simplified approach using Laplace transforms which allows us to calculate the nth moment of action without solving this family of boundary value problems and also without solving for the transient solution of the underlying reaction-diffusion problem. We demonstrate the generality of our method by calculating exact expressions for the moments of action for three problems from the biophysics literature. While the first problem we consider can be solved using existing methods, the second problem, which is readily solved using our approach, is intractable using previous techniques. The third problem illustrates how the Laplace transform approach can be used to study coupled linear reaction-diffusion equations.

Through-focus performance with multifocal contact lenses : effect of binocularity, pupil diameter and inherent ocular aberrations

Purpose to evaluate the effects of the wearer’s pupil size and spherical aberration on visual performance with centre-near, aspheric multifocal contact lenses (MFCLs). The advantage of binocular over monocular vision was also investigated. Methods Twelve young volunteers, with an average age of 27±5 years, participated in the study. LogMAR Visual Acuity (VA) was measured under cycloplegia for a range of defocus levels (from +3.0 to -3.0D, in 0.5D steps) with no correction and with three aspheric MFCLs (Air Optix Aqua Multifocal, Ciba Vision, Duluth, GA, US) with a centre-near design, providing correction for “Low”, “Med” and “High” near demands. Measurements were performed for all combinations of the following conditions: i) artificial pupils of 6mm and 3mm diameter, ii) binocular and monocular (dominant eye) vision. Depth-of-focus (DOF) was calculated from the VA vs. defocus curves. Ocular aberrations under cycloplegia were measured using iTrace. Results VA at -3.0D defocus (simulating near performance) was statistically higher for the 3mm than for the 6mm pupil (p=0.006), and for binocular rather than for monocular vision (p<0.001). Similarly, DOF was better for the 3mm pupil (p=0.002) and for binocular viewing conditions (p<0.001, ANOVA). Both VA at –3.0D defocus and DOF increased as the “addition” of the MFCL correction increased. Finally, with the centre-near MFCLs a linear correlation was found between VA at –3.0D defocus and the wearer’s ocular spherical aberration (R2=0.20 p<0.001 for 6mm data), with the eyes exhibiting the higher positive spherical aberration experiencing lower VAs. By contrast, no correlation was found between VA and spherical aberration at 0.00D defocus (distance vision). Conclusions Both near VA and depth-of-focus improve with these MFCLs, with the effects being more pronounced for small pupils and binocular than for monocular vision. Coupling of the wearer’s ocular spherical aberration with the aberration profiles provided by MFCLs affects their functionality.

Block models for improved earthwork allocation planning in linear infrastructure construction

Earthwork planning has been considered in this article and a generic block partitioning and modelling approach has been devised to provide strategic plans of various levels of detail. Conceptually this approach is more accurate and comprehensive than others, for instance those that are section based. In response to environmental concerns the metric for decision making was fuel consumption and emissions. Haulage distance and gradient are also included as they are important components of these metrics. Advantageously the fuel consumption metric is generic and captures the physical difficulties of travelling over inclines of different gradients, that is consistent across all hauling vehicles. For validation, the proposed models and techniques have been applied to a real world road project. The numerical investigations have demonstrated that the models can be solved with relatively little CPU time. The proposed block models also result in solutions of superior quality, i.e. they have reduced fuel consumption and cost. Furthermore the plans differ considerably from those based solely upon a distance based metric thus demonstrating a need for industry to reflect upon their current practices.

Computer-assisted measurements of coronal knee joint laxity in vitro are related to low-stress behavior rather than structural properties of the collateral ligaments

The relationship between coronal knee laxity and the restraining properties of the collateral ligaments remains unknown. This study investigated correlations between the structural properties of the collateral ligaments and stress angles used in computer-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA), measured with an optically based navigation system. Ten fresh-frozen cadaveric knees (mean age: 81 ± 11 years) were dissected to leave the menisci, cruciate ligaments, posterior joint capsule and collateral ligaments. The resected femur and tibia were rigidly secured within a test system which permitted kinematic registration of the knee using a commercially available image-free navigation system. Frontal plane knee alignment and varus-valgus stress angles were acquired. The force applied during varus-valgus testing was quantified. Medial and lateral bone-collateral ligament-bone specimens were then prepared, mounted within a uni-axial materials testing machine, and extended to failure. Force and displacement data were used to calculate the principal structural properties of the ligaments. The mean varus laxity was 4 ± 1° and the mean valgus laxity was 4 ± 2°. The corresponding mean manual force applied was 10 ± 3 N and 11 ± 4 N, respectively. While measures of knee laxity were independent of the ultimate tensile strength and stiffness of the collateral ligaments, there was a significant correlation between the force applied during stress testing and the instantaneous stiffness of the medial (r = 0.91, p = 0.001) and lateral (r = 0.68, p = 0.04) collateral ligaments. These findings suggest that clinicians may perceive a rate of change of ligament stiffness as the end-point during assessment of collateral knee laxity.

Non-invasive clinical measurement of the viscoelastic properties of tendon using acoustic wave transmission

Background. In isotropic materials, the speed of acoustic wave propagation is governed by the bulk modulus and density. For tendon, which is a structural composite of fluid and collagen, however, there is some anisotropy requiring an adjustment for Poisson's ratio. This paper explores these relationships using data collected, in vivo, on human Achilles tendon and then compares estimates of elastic modulus and hysteresis against published values from in vitro mechanical tests. Methods. Measurements using conventional B-model ultrasound imaging, inverse dynamics and acoustic transmission techniques were used to determine dimensions, loading conditions and longitudinal speed of sound in the Achilles tendon during a series of isometric plantar flexion exercises against body weight. Upper and lower bounds for speed of sound versus tensile stress in the tendon were then modelled and estimates of the elastic modulus and hysteresis of the Achilles tendon derived. Results. Axial speed of sound varied between 1850 and 2090 ms-1 with a non-linear, asymptotic dependency on the level of tensile stress (5-35 MPa) in the tendon. Estimates derived for the elastic modulus of the Achilles tendon ranged between 1-2 GPa. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship, ranged from 3-11%. Discussion. Estimates of elastic modulus agree closely with those previously reported from direct measurements obtained via mechanical tensile tests on major weight bearing tendons in vitro [1,2]. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship is consistent with direct measures from various mamalian tendon (7-10%) but is lower than previous estimates in human tendon (17-26%) [3]. This non-invasive method would appear suitable for monitoring changes in tendon properties during dynamic sporting activities.