A randomized trial of fellowships for early career researchers finds a high reliability in funding decisions

Objectives Funding for early career researchers in Australia's largest medical research funding scheme is determined by a competitive peer-review process using a panel of four reviewers. The purpose of this experiment was to appraise the reliability of funding by duplicating applications that were considered by separate grant review panels. Study Design and Methods Sixty duplicate applications were considered by two independent grant review panels that were awarding funding for Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council. Panel members were blinded to which applications were included in the experiment and to whether it was the original or duplicate application. Scores were compared across panels using Bland–Altman plots to determine measures of agreement, including whether agreement would have impacted on actual funding. Results Twenty-three percent of the applicants were funded by both panels and 60 percent were not funded by both, giving an overall agreement of 83 percent [95% confidence interval (CI): 73%, 92%]. The chance-adjusted agreement was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.92). Conclusion There was a comparatively high level of agreement when compared with other types of funding schemes. Further experimental research could be used to determine if this higher agreement is due to nature of the application, the composition of the assessment panel, or the characteristics of the applicants.

Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

A novel approach to assessing road-curve crash severity

Curves are a common feature of road infrastructure; however crashes on road curves are associated with increased risk of injury and fatality to vehicle occupants. Countermeasures require the identification of contributing factors. However, current approaches to identifying contributors use traditional statistical methods and have not used self-reported narrative claim to identify factors related to the driver, vehicle and environment in a systemic way. Text mining of 3434 road-curve crash claim records filed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 at a major insurer in Queensland, Australia, was undertaken to identify risk levels and contributing factors. Rough set analysis was used on insurance claim narratives to identify significant contributing factors to crashes and their associated severity. New contributing factors unique to curve crashes were identified (e.g., tree, phone, over-steer) in addition to those previously identified via traditional statistical analysis of Police and licensing authority records. Text mining is a novel methodology to improve knowledge related to risk and contributing factors to road-curve crash severity. Future road-curve crash countermeasures should more fully consider the interrelationships between environment, the road, the driver and the vehicle, and education campaigns in particular could highlight the increased risk of crash on road-curves.

Reliability and validity of objective measures of physical activity in youth with cerebral palsy who are ambulatory

BACKGROUND Physical therapy for youth with cerebral palsy (CP) who are ambulatory includes interventions to increase functional mobility and participation in physical activity (PA). Thus, reliable and valid measures are needed to document PA in youth with CP. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the inter-instrument reliability and concurrent validity of 3 accelerometer-based motion sensors with indirect calorimetry as the criterion for measuring PA intensity in youth with CP. METHODS Fifty-seven youth with CP (mean age=12.5 years, SD=3.3; 51% female; 49.1% with spastic hemiplegia) participated. Inclusion criteria were: aged 6 to 20 years, ambulatory, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I through III, able to follow directions, and able to complete the full PA protocol. Protocol activities included standardized activity trials with increasing PA intensity (resting, writing, household chores, active video games, and walking at 3 self-selected speeds), as measured by weight-relative oxygen uptake (in mL/kg/min). During each trial, participants wore bilateral accelerometers on the upper arms, waist/hip, and ankle and a portable indirect calorimeter. Intraclass coefficient correlations (ICCs) were calculated to evaluate inter-instrument reliability (left-to-right accelerometer placement). Spearman correlations were used to examine concurrent validity between accelerometer output (activity and step counts) and indirect calorimetry. Friedman analyses of variance with post hoc pair-wise analyses were conducted to examine the validity of accelerometers to discriminate PA intensity across activity trials. RESULTS All accelerometers exhibited excellent inter-instrument reliability (ICC=.94-.99) and good concurrent validity (rho=.70-.85). All accelerometers discriminated PA intensity across most activity trials. LIMITATIONS This PA protocol consisted of controlled activity trials. CONCLUSIONS Accelerometers provide valid and reliable measures of PA intensity among youth with CP.

Development, reliability and validity of the queensland evaluation of wheelchair skills (QEWS)

- Objectives To develop and test a valid and reliable assessment of wheelchair skills for individuals with spinal cord injuries (SCI); the Queensland Evaluation of Wheelchair Skills (QEWS). - Setting Hospital, Australia. - Methods Phase 1: Four Delphi panel rounds with clinical experts were used to develop the QEWS. Phase 2: Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability of the QEWS items were examined in 100 people with SCI. Phase 3a: Concurrent validity was investigated by examining the association between QEWS total scores and physiotherapists’ global ratings of wheelchair skill performance. Phase 3b: Construct validity was tested in 20 people with recent SCI by examining change in QEWS total scores between when they first mobilised in a wheelchair and scores obtained 10 weeks later. - Results Phase 1: The QEWS was developed. Phase 2: The intra-class correlation coefficients reflecting the intra-rater reliability and the inter-rater reliability for the QEWS total score were 1.00 and 0.98, with scores being within one point of each other 96 and 91% of the time, respectively. Phase 3a: The QEWS total scores were comparable with the global rating of wheelchair skill performance (r2=0.93). Phase 3b: The QEWS scores changed by a median (interquartile range (IQR)) of 4 (1 to 6) points over the 10-week period following first wheelchair mobilisation. - Conclusion The QEWS is a valid and reliable tool for measuring wheelchair skills in individuals with SCI. The QEWS is efficient and practical to administer and does not require specialised equipment.

A data fusion approach of multiple maintenance data sources for real-world reliability modelling

A central tenet in the theory of reliability modelling is the quantification of the probability of asset failure. In general, reliability depends on asset age and the maintenance policy applied. Usually, failure and maintenance times are the primary inputs to reliability models. However, for many organisations, different aspects of these data are often recorded in different databases (e.g. work order notifications, event logs, condition monitoring data, and process control data). These recorded data cannot be interpreted individually, since they typically do not have all the information necessary to ascertain failure and preventive maintenance times. This paper presents a methodology for the extraction of failure and preventive maintenance times using commonly-available, real-world data sources. A text-mining approach is employed to extract keywords indicative of the source of the maintenance event. Using these keywords, a Naïve Bayes classifier is then applied to attribute each machine stoppage to one of two classes: failure or preventive. The accuracy of the algorithm is assessed and the classified failure time data are then presented. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated on a maintenance data set from an Australian electricity company.

Development and psychometric properties of the DCDDaily: a new test for clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living in children with developmental coordination disorder

Objective To develop the DCDDaily, an instrument for objective and standardized clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living (ADL) in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD), and to investigate its usability, reliability, and validity. Subjects Five to eight-year-old children with and without DCD. Main measures The DCDDaily was developed based on thorough review of the literature and extensive expert involvement. To investigate the usability (assessment time and feasibility), reliability (internal consistency and repeatability), and validity (concurrent and discriminant validity) of the DCDDaily, children were assessed with the DCDDaily and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test, and their parents filled in the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire. Results 459 children were assessed (DCD group, n = 55; normative reference group, n = 404). Assessment was possible within 30 minutes and in any clinical setting. For internal consistency, Cronbach’s α = 0.83. Intraclass correlation = 0.87 for test–retest reliability and 0.89 for inter-rater reliability. Concurrent correlations with Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test and questionnaires were ρ = −0.494, 0.239, and −0.284, p < 0.001. Discriminant validity measures showed significantly worse performance in the DCD group than in the control group (mean (SD) score 33 (5.6) versus 26 (4.3), p < 0.001). The area under curve characteristic = 0.872, sensitivity and specificity were 80%. Conclusions The DCDDaily is a valid and reliable instrument for clinical assessment of capacity in ADL, that is feasible for use in clinical practice.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

The assessment of ecological condition in south-east Queensland, Australia: An evaluation of reliability across variable environments and surrogate efficacy for biodiversity values

Multimetric ecological condition assessment has become an important biodiversity management tool. This study was the first to examine the reliability of these ecological surrogates across variable environments, and the implications for surrogate efficacy. It was demonstrated that through strategic application and design of the multimetric ecological condition index, the effects of environmental gradients and disturbance regimes can be mitigated, and that ecological condition assessment may serve as a scientifically rigorous approach for conservation planning.

The application of islanded photovoltaic cells and battery storage on the reliability of distribution networks

Renewable energy resources, in particularly PV and battery storage are increasingly becoming part of residential and agriculture premises to manage their electricity consumption. This thesis addresses the tremendous technical, financial and planning challenges for utilities created by these increases, by offering techniques to examine the significance of various renewable resources in electricity network planning. The outcome of this research should assist utilities and customers for adequate planning that can be financially effective.