672 resultados para Prediction theory
Resumo:
Continuum mechanics provides a mathematical framework for modelling the physical stresses experienced by a material. Recent studies show that physical stresses play an important role in a wide variety of biological processes, including dermal wound healing, soft tissue growth and morphogenesis. Thus, continuum mechanics is a useful mathematical tool for modelling a range of biological phenomena. Unfortunately, classical continuum mechanics is of limited use in biomechanical problems. As cells refashion the �bres that make up a soft tissue, they sometimes alter the tissue's fundamental mechanical structure. Advanced mathematical techniques are needed in order to accurately describe this sort of biological `plasticity'. A number of such techniques have been proposed by previous researchers. However, models that incorporate biological plasticity tend to be very complicated. Furthermore, these models are often di�cult to apply and/or interpret, making them of limited practical use. One alternative approach is to ignore biological plasticity and use classical continuum mechanics. For example, most mechanochemical models of dermal wound healing assume that the skin behaves as a linear viscoelastic solid. Our analysis indicates that this assumption leads to physically unrealistic results. In this thesis we present a novel and practical approach to modelling biological plasticity. Our principal aim is to combine the simplicity of classical linear models with the sophistication of plasticity theory. To achieve this, we perform a careful mathematical analysis of the concept of a `zero stress state'. This leads us to a formal de�nition of strain that is appropriate for materials that undergo internal remodelling. Next, we consider the evolution of the zero stress state over time. We develop a novel theory of `morphoelasticity' that can be used to describe how the zero stress state changes in response to growth and remodelling. Importantly, our work yields an intuitive and internally consistent way of modelling anisotropic growth. Furthermore, we are able to use our theory of morphoelasticity to develop evolution equations for elastic strain. We also present some applications of our theory. For example, we show that morphoelasticity can be used to obtain a constitutive law for a Maxwell viscoelastic uid that is valid at large deformation gradients. Similarly, we analyse a morphoelastic model of the stress-dependent growth of a tumour spheroid. This work leads to the prediction that a tumour spheroid will always be in a state of radial compression and circumferential tension. Finally, we conclude by presenting a novel mechanochemical model of dermal wound healing that takes into account the plasticity of the healing skin.
Resumo:
Professional coaching is a rapidly expanding field with interdisciplinary roots and broad application. However, despite abundant prescriptive literature, research into the process of coaching, and especially life coaching, is minimal. Similarly, although learning is inherently recognised in the process of coaching, and coaching is increasingly being recognised as a means of enhancing teaching and learning, the process of learning in coaching is little understood, and learning theory makes up only a small part of the evidence-based coaching literature. In this grounded theory study of life coaches and their clients, the process of learning in life coaching across a range of coaching models is examined and explained. The findings demonstrate how learning in life coaching emerged as a process of discovering, applying and integrating self-knowledge, which culminated in the development of self. This process occurred through eight key coaching processes shared between coaches and clients and combined a multitude of learning theory.
Resumo:
The human-technology nexus is a strong focus of Information Systems (IS) research; however, very few studies have explored this phenomenon in anaesthesia. Anaesthesia has a long history of adoption of technological artifacts, ranging from early apparatus to present-day information systems such as electronic monitoring and pulse oximetry. This prevalence of technology in modern anaesthesia and the rich human-technology relationship provides a fertile empirical setting for IS research. This study employed a grounded theory approach that began with a broad initial guiding question and, through simultaneous data collection and analysis, uncovered a core category of technology appropriation. This emergent basic social process captures a central activity of anaesthestists and is supported by three major concepts: knowledge-directed medicine, complementary artifacts and culture of anaesthesia. The outcomes of this study are: (1) a substantive theory that integrates the aforementioned concepts and pertains to the research setting of anaesthesia and (2) a formal theory, which further develops the core category of appropriation from anaesthesia-specific to a broader, more general perspective. These outcomes fulfill the objective of a grounded theory study, being the formation of theory that describes and explains observed patterns in the empirical field. In generalizing the notion of appropriation, the formal theory is developed using the theories of Karl Marx. This Marxian model of technology appropriation is a three-tiered theoretical lens that examines appropriation behaviours at a highly abstract level, connecting the stages of natural, species and social being to the transition of a technology-as-artifact to a technology-in-use via the processes of perception, orientation and realization. The contributions of this research are two-fold: (1) the substantive model contributes to practice by providing a model that describes and explains the human-technology nexus in anaesthesia, and thereby offers potential predictive capabilities for designers and administrators to optimize future appropriations of new anaesthetic technological artifacts; and (2) the formal model contributes to research by drawing attention to the philosophical foundations of appropriation in the work of Marx, and subsequently expanding the current understanding of contemporary IS theories of adoption and appropriation.
Resumo:
This paper presents the stability analysis for a distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that operates in current control mode based on bifurcation theory. Bifurcations delimit the operating zones of nonlinear circuits and, hence, the capability to compute these bifurcations is of important interest for practical design. A control design for the DSTATCOM is proposed. Along with this control, a suitable mathematical representation of the DSTATCOM is proposed to carry out the bifurcation analysis efficiently. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed for different power factors at the point of common coupling. In addition, the stability regions in the control gain space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers are computed. It is demonstrated through bifurcation analysis that the loss of stability in the DSTATCOM is due to the emergence of a Neimark bifurcation. The observations are verified through simulation studies.
Resumo:
One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.
Resumo:
Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.
Resumo:
Focuses on a study which introduced an iterative modeling method that combines properties of ordinary least squares (OLS) with hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR) in transportation engineering. Information on OLS and HTBR; Comparison and contrasts of OLS and HTBR; Conclusions.
Resumo:
Measures and theories of information abound, but there are few formalised methods for treating the contextuality that can manifest in different information systems. Quantum theory provides one possible formalism for treating information in context. This paper introduces a quantum-like model of the human mental lexicon, and shows one set of recent experimental data suggesting that concept combinations can indeed behave non-separably. There is some reason to believe that the human mental lexicon displays entanglement.
Resumo:
The need for the development of effective business curricula that meets the needs of the marketplace has created an increase in the adoption of core competencies lists identifying appropriate graduate skills. Many organisations and tertiary institutions have individual graduate capabilities lists including skills deemed essential for success. Skills recognised as ‘critical thinking’ are popular inclusions on core competencies and graduate capability lists. While there is literature outlining ‘critical thinking’ frameworks, methods of teaching it and calls for its integration into business curricula, few studies actually identify quantifiable improvements achieved in this area. This project sought to address the development of ‘critical thinking’ skills in a management degree program by embedding a process for critical thinking within a theory unit undertaken by students early in the program. Focus groups and a student survey were used to identify issues of both content and implementation and to develop a student perspective on their needs in thinking critically. A process utilising a framework of critical thinking was integrated through a workbook of weekly case studies for group analysis, discussions and experiential exercises. The experience included formative and summative assessment. Initial results indicate a greater valuation by students of their experience in the organisation theory unit; better marks for mid semester essay assignments and higher evaluations on the university administered survey of students’ satisfaction.
Resumo:
Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites