Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation in modern plant breeding

Somatic embryogenesis and transformation systems are indispensable modern plant breeding components since they provide an alternative platform to develop control strategies against the plethora of pests and diseases affecting many agronomic crops. This review discusses some of the factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation, highlights the advantages and limitations of these systems and explores these systems as breeding tools for the development of crops with improved agronomic traits. The regeneration of non-chimeric transgenic crops through somatic embryogenesis with introduced disease and pest-resistant genes for instance, would be of significant benefit to growers worldwide.

Inclusion of PMU current phasor measurements in a power system state estimator

Three different methods of inclusion of current measurements by phasor measurement units (PMUs) in a power sysetm state estimator is investigated. A comprehensive formulation of the hybrid state estimator incorporating conventional, as well as PMU measurements, is presented for each of the three methods. The behaviour of the elements because of the current measurements in the measurement Jacobian matrix is examined for any possible ill-conditioning of the state estimator gain matrix. The performance of the state estimators are compared in terms of the convergence properties and the varian in the estimated states. The IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 300-bus systems are used as test beds for the study.

Interpreting regional frequencies from synchronized phasor measurement in multi-area power systems

In this paper a new approach is proposed for interpreting of regional frequencies in multi machine power systems. The method uses generator aggregation and system reduction based on coherent generators in each area. The reduced system structure is able to be identified and a kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to estimate the inter-area modes using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The proposed method is tested on a six machine, three area test system and the obtained results show the estimation of inter-area oscillations in the system with a high accuracy.

Analysing the effect of digital technology on channel strategy, power and disintermediation in the home video market : the demise of the video store?

The antecedents of channel power (e.g. El-Ansary and Stern, 1972) and the impact of channel structure ( e.g. Anderson and Narus,1984) on channel dynamics have long been important topics within the channel literature. In addition to the theoretical and methodological contributions, research in these areas has helped channel managers to understand how power is generated and used in coordinating distribution strategies in different contexts. The study presented in this paper builds upon these previous literatures, which are first briefly reviewed below.

A biologically inspired object spectral-texture descriptor and its application to vegetation classification in power-line corridors

The use of appropriate features to represent an output class or object is critical for all classification problems. In this paper, we propose a biologically inspired object descriptor to represent the spectral-texture patterns of image-objects. The proposed feature descriptor is generated from the pulse spectral frequencies (PSF) of a pulse coupled neural network (PCNN), which is invariant to rotation, translation and small scale changes. The proposed method is first evaluated in a rotation and scale invariant texture classification using USC-SIPI texture database. It is further evaluated in an application of vegetation species classification in power line corridor monitoring using airborne multi-spectral aerial imagery. The results from the two experiments demonstrate that the PSF feature is effective to represent spectral-texture patterns of objects and it shows better results than classic color histogram and texture features.

Variable structure control for power systems stabilization

The application of variable structure control (VSC) for power systems stabilization is studied in this paper. It is the application, aspects and constraints of VSC which are of particular interest. A variable structure control methodology has been proposed for power systems stabilization. The method is implemented using thyristor controlled series compensators. A three machine power system is stabilized using a switching line control for large disturbances which becomes a sliding control as the disturbance becomes smaller. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology proposed as an useful tool to suppress the oscillations in power systems.

Penetration and power

This paper analyses the ways in which it is possible to imagine the relationship between sexual penetration and the expression of power. Taking the particular instance of a penetrative act in the US gay porn film Hard at Work, it applies a series of critical approaches in an attempt to make sense of perceived power relations in that text. Equations of power and activity, power and physical strength, power and the possession of a penis, power and the ability to gaze and power and the control of discourse are all considered and found to be inadequate to the task. The paper finally suggests that in order to usefully discuss relations of power in sexual acts, it is necessary to accept the radical reconceptualisation of power suggested by Mark Gibson, and begin to understand it not as an objective, measurable and real quantity, but as an effect of the interpretation of particular situations.

A changing landscape : The mortgagee's power of sale in Queensland

In Australia, the extent of a mortgagee’s duty when exercising power of sale has long been the subject of conjecture. With the advent of the global financial crisis in the latter part of 2008, there has been some concern to ensure that the interests of mortgagors are adequately protected. In Queensland, concern of this type resulted in the enactment of the Property Law (Mortgagor Protection) Amendment Act 2008 (Qld). This amending legislation operates to both extend and strengthen the operation of s 85 of the Property Law Act 1974 (Qld) which regulates the mortgagee’s power of sale in Queensland. This article examines the impact of this amending legislation which was hastily introduced and passed by the Queensland Parliament without consultation and which introduces a level of prescription in relation to a sale under a prescribed mortgage which is without precedent elsewhere in Australia.

Power through influence : the evolution of arts management in Australia

The purpose of this paper is to frame effective models of arts management for Australia in the nineties and beyond based on an analysis of historical practices. The evolutionary process of government subvention of the arts through non-profit arts organisations provides a clear statement of the role of power and influence. In particular the ascendancy of arts organisations and their management constitute a background against which to study other non-profit corporations.

The power of educational podcasting : using short-format podcasts to reinforce tertiary student learning experiences in science

In 2007 I introduced short-format educational podcast resources that reinforced conceptual teaching and learning in an interdisciplinary tertiary science study area (biochemistry). This study aims to determine student attitudes to the perceived usefulness and benefit of short-format educational podcasts, and presents the findings (qualitative and quantitative) from surveys obtained from three offerings of the science teaching unit (2007, 2008 and 2009). Podcasts were recorded (MP3 audio files) separately from the instructive lecture sessions, and subsequent to the weekly lecture, short-format podcasts summarising the key learning objectives were integrated within the resources presented through the students learning management system (Blackboard). The vast majority (>88%) of students utilised the podcast resources, indicating a high level of acceptance and uptake for this portable educational technology. The respondents reported that podcasts focused their attention to core learning concepts and supported their understanding and learning of the lecture material. Furthermore, the data showed that respondents agreed strongly that podcasts assisted with study and revision for examinations and, somewhat surprisingly, there was a perception that podcasts positively impacted on examination performance. Overall, student users perceived that podcasting is as an effective and valuable educational tool that offers convenience and flexibility for their learning and understanding of a tertiary science study area, such as biochemistry.