Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Numerical modelling of industrial microwave heating

The numerical modelling of electromagnetic waves has been the focus of many research areas in the past. Some specific applications of electromagnetic wave scattering are in the fields of Microwave Heating and Radar Communication Systems. The equations that govern the fundamental behaviour of electromagnetic wave propagation in waveguides and cavities are the Maxwell's equations. In the literature, a number of methods have been employed to solve these equations. Of these methods, the classical Finite-Difference Time-Domain scheme, which uses a staggered time and space discretisation, is the most well known and widely used. However, it is complicated to implement this method on an irregular computational domain using an unstructured mesh. In this work, a coupled method is introduced for the solution of Maxwell's equations. It is proposed that the free-space component of the solution is computed in the time domain, whilst the load is resolved using the frequency dependent electric field Helmholtz equation. This methodology results in a timefrequency domain hybrid scheme. For the Helmholtz equation, boundary conditions are generated from the time dependent free-space solutions. The boundary information is mapped into the frequency domain using the Discrete Fourier Transform. The solution for the electric field components is obtained by solving a sparse-complex system of linear equations. The hybrid method has been tested for both waveguide and cavity configurations. Numerical tests performed on waveguides and cavities for inhomogeneous lossy materials highlight the accuracy and computational efficiency of the newly proposed hybrid computational electromagnetic strategy.

Assimilating cell sheets and hybrid scaffolds for dermal tissue engineering

Cell sheets can be used to produce neo-tissue with mature extracellular matrix. However, extensive contraction of cell sheets remains a problem. We devised a technique to overcome this problem and applied it to tissue engineer a dermal construct. Human dermal fibroblasts were cultured with poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid)-collagen meshes and collagen-hyaluronic acid foams. Resulting cell sheets were folded over the scaffolds to form dermal constructs. Human keratinocytes were cultured on these dermal constructs to assess their ability to support bilayered skin regeneration. Dermal constructs produced with collagen-hyaluronic acid foams showed minimal contraction, while those with poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid)-collagen meshes curled up. Cell proliferation and metabolic activity profiles were characterized with PicoGreen and AlamarBlue assays, respectively. Fluorescent labeling showed high cell viability and F-actin expression within the constructs. Collagen deposition was detected by immunocytochemistry and electron microscopy. Transforming Growth Factor-alpha and beta1, Keratinocyte Growth Factor and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor were produced at various stages of culture, measured by RT-PCR and ELISA. These results indicated that assimilating cell sheets with mechanically stable scaffolds could produce viable dermal-like constructs that do not contract. Repeated enzymatic treatment cycles for cell expansion is unnecessary, while the issue of poor cell seeding efficiency in scaffolds is eliminated.

An alginate-based hybrid system for growth factor delivery in the functional repair of large bone defects

The treatment of challenging fractures and large osseous defects presents a formidable problem for orthopaedic surgeons. Tissue engineering/regenerative medicine approaches seek to solve this problem by delivering osteogenic signals within scaffolding biomaterials. In this study, we introduce a hybrid growth factor delivery system that consists of an electrospun nanofiber mesh tube for guiding bone regeneration combined with peptide-modified alginate hydrogel injected inside the tube for sustained growth factor release. We tested the ability of this system to deliver recombinant bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) for the repair of critically-sized segmental bone defects in a rat model. Longitudinal [mu]-CT analysis and torsional testing provided quantitative assessment of bone regeneration. Our results indicate that the hybrid delivery system resulted in consistent bony bridging of the challenging bone defects. However, in the absence of rhBMP-2, the use of nanofiber mesh tube and alginate did not result in substantial bone formation. Perforations in the nanofiber mesh accelerated the rhBMP-2 mediated bone repair, and resulted in functional restoration of the regenerated bone. [mu]-CT based angiography indicated that perforations did not significantly affect the revascularization of defects, suggesting that some other interaction with the tissue surrounding the defect such as improved infiltration of osteoprogenitor cells contributed to the observed differences in repair. Overall, our results indicate that the hybrid alginate/nanofiber mesh system is a promising growth factor delivery strategy for the repair of challenging bone injuries.