Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Impacts of sodic soil amelioration on deep drainage

Groundwater tables are rising beneath irrigated fields in some areas of the Lower Burdekin in North Queensland, Australia. The soils where this occurs are predominantly sodic clay soils with low hydraulic conductivities. Many of these soils have been treated by applying gypsum or by increasing the salinity of irrigation water by mixing saline groundwater with fresh river water. While the purpose of these treatments is to increase infiltration into the surface soils and improve productivity of the root zone, it is thought that the treatments may have altered the soil hydraulic properties well below the root zone leading to increased groundwater recharge and rising water tables. In this paper we discuss the use of column experiments and HYDRUS modelling, with major ion reaction and transport and soil water chemistry-dependent hydraulic conductivity, to assess the likely depth, magnitude and timing of the impacts of surface soil amelioration on soil hydraulic properties below the root zone and hence groundwater recharge. In the experiments, columns of sodic clays from the Lower Burdekin were leached for extended periods of time with either gypsum solutions or mixed cation salt solutions and change s in hydraulic conductivity were measured. Leaching with a gypsum solution for an extended time period, until the flow rate stabilised, resulted in an approximately twenty fold increase in the hydraulic conductivity when compared with a low salinity, mixed cation solution. HYDRUS modelling was used to high light the role of those factors which might influence the impacts of soil treatment, particularly at depth, including the large amounts of rain during the relatively short wet season and the presence of thick low permeability clay layers.

Understanding coal seam gas associated water, regulations and strategies for treatment

The coal seam gas (CSG) industry is globally of potentially great importance economically. This study exemplifies the complex relationship between land use and management, groundwater impact and associated water treatment especially in relation to Queensland where a significant increase in the amount of gas extracted over the past 6 years has occurred. In order to effectively manage the environmental impact of the CSG industry it is necessary to appropriately understand the nature of the gas deposits, methods for gas collection, the physicochemical composition of the by-product associated water and the technologies available for water remediation. Australia is mainly considered arid and semi-arid and thus there is a need to not only beneficially reuse water resources but also protect existing ground water reservoirs such as the Great Artesian Basin (GAB). This paper focussed primarily on the Surat Basin located in Queensland and northern New South Wales. The mechanism for CSG formation, relation to local geological features, extraction approach and the potential impact/benefits of associated water was discussed. An outline of the current legislative requirements on physical and chemical properties of associated water in the Surat Basin was also provided, as well as the current treatment technologies used by the major CSG companies. This review was of significance in relation to the formulation of the most appropriate and cost effective management of associated water, while simultaneously preserving existing water resources and the environment.

Integrating urban ecosystem sustainability assessment into policy-making: Insights from the Gold Coast City

This paper introduces a policy-making support tool called ‘Micro-level Urban ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX)’. The index serves as a sustainability assessment model that monitors six aspects of urban ecosystems, hydrology, ecology, pollution, location, design, and efficiency based on parcel-scale indicators. This index is applied in a case study investigation in the Gold Coast City, Queensland, Australia. The outcomes reveal that there are major environmental problems caused by increased impervious surfaces from growing urban development in the study area. The findings suggest that increased impervious surfaces are linked to increased surface runoff, car dependency, transport-related pollution, poor public transport accessibility, and unsustainable built environment. This paper presents how the MUSIX outputs can be used to guide policy-making through the evaluation of existing policies.

A pilot study of the Social Water Assessment Protocol in a mining region of Ghana

The Social Water Assessment Protocol (SWAP) is a tool consisting of a series of questions on fourteen themes designed to capture the social context of water around a mine site. A pilot study of the SWAP, conducted in Prestea-Huni Valley, Ghana, showed that some communities were concerned about whether the groundwater was potable. The mining company’s concern was that there was a cycle of dependency amongst communities that received treated water from the mining company. The pilot identified potential data sources and stakeholder groups for each theme, gaps in themes and suggested refinements to questions to improve the SWAP.