Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

The impact of temperature variability on years of life lost

The relationship between temperature and mortality is generally found to be bathtub shaped (rising at both extremes). However, there are limited data on the potential health effects of temperature variability and on temperature itself...

An Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) model for predicting biodiesel kinetic viscosity as a function of temperature and chemical compositions

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Measurement of the first neutron diffraction peak of D2O flowing in a 2 mm diameter aluminium tube as a function of temperature

A pilot experiment was performed using the WOMBAT powder diffraction instrument at ANSTO in which the first neutron diffraction peak (Q0) was measured for D2O flowing in a 2 mm internal diameter aluminium tube. Measurements of Q0 were made at -9, 4.3, 6.9, 12, 18.2 and 21.5 °C. The D2O was circulated using a siphon with water in the lower reservoir returned to the upper reservoir using a small pump. This enabled stable flow to be maintained for several hours. For example, if the pump flow increased slightly, the upper reservoir level rose, increasing the siphon flow until it matched the return flow. A neutron wavelength of 2.4 Å was used and data integrated over 60 minutes for each temperature. A jet of nitrogen from a liquid N2 Dewar was directed over the aluminium tube to vary water temperature. After collection of the data, the d spacing of the aluminium peaks was used to calculate the temperature of the aluminium within the neutron beam and therefore was considered to be an accurate measure of water temperature within the beam. Sigmaplot version 12.3 was used to fit a Weibull five parameter peak fit to the first neutron diffraction peak. The values of Q0 obtained in this experiment showed an increase with temperature consistent with data in the literature [1] but were consistently higher than published values for bulk D20. For example at 21.5 °C we obtained a value of 2.008 Å-1 for Q0 compared to a literature value of 1.988 Å-1 for bulk D2O at 20 °C, a difference of 1%. Further experiments are required to see if this difference is real or artifactual.

The first x-ray diffraction peak of water as a function of temperature in the range 4 – 63 °C

X-ray diffraction structure functions for water flowing in a 1.5 mm diameter siphon in the temperature range 4 – 63 °C were obtained using a 20 keV beam at the Australian Synchrotron. These functions were compared with structure functions obtained at the Advanced Light Source for a 0.5 mm thick sample of water in the temperature range 1 – 77 °C irradiated with an 11 keV beam. The two sets of structure functions are similar, but there are subtle differences in the shape and relative position of the two functions suggesting a possible differences between the structure of bulk and siphon water. In addition, the first structural peak (Q0) for water in a siphon, showed evidence of a step-wise increase in Q0 with increasing temperature rather than a smoothly varying increase. More experiments are required to investigate this apparent difference.

Investigation on Temperature-Dependent Electrical Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube/Epoxy Composites for Sustainable Energy Applications

Composites with carbon nanotubes are becoming increasingly used in energy storage and electronic devices, due to incorporated excellent properties from carbon nanotubes and polymers. Although their properties make them more attractive than conventional smart materials, their electrical properties are found to be temperature-dependent which is important to consider for the design of devices. To study the effects of temperature in electrically conductive multi-wall carbon nanotube/epoxy composites, thin films were prepared and the effect of temperature on the resistivity, thermal properties and Raman spectral characteristics of the composite films was evaluated. Resistivity-temperature profiles showed three distinct regions in as-cured samples and only two regions in samples whose thermal histories had been erased. In the vicinity of the glass transition temperature, the as-cured composites exhibited pronounced resistivity and enthalpic relaxation peaks, which both disappeared after erasing the composites’ thermal histories by temperature cycling. Combined DSC, Raman spectroscopy, and resistivity-temperature analyses indicated that this phenomenon can be attributed to the physical aging of the epoxy matrix and that, in the region of the observed thermal history-dependent resistivity peaks, structural rearrangement of the conductive carbon nanotube network occurs through a volume expansion/relaxation process. These results have led to an overall greater understanding of the temperature-dependent behaviour of conductive carbon nanotube/epoxy composites, including the positive temperature coefficient effect.

Impact of ambient temperature on children's health : a systematic review

Children are vulnerable to temperature extremes. This paper aimed to review the literature regarding the relationship between ambient temperature and children’s health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in February 2012 using the databases including PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science. Empirical studies regarding the impact of ambient temperature on children’s mortality and morbidity were included. The existing literature indicates that very young children, especially children under one year of age, are particularly vulnerable to heat-related deaths. Hot and cold temperatures mainly affect cases of infectious diseases among children, including gastrointestinal diseases, malaria, hand, foot and mouse disease, and respiratory diseases. Paediatric allergic diseases, like eczema, are also sensitive to temperature extremes. During heat waves, the incidences of renal disease, fever and electrolyte imbalance among children increase significantly. Future research is needed to examine the balance between hot- and cold-temperature related mortality and morbidity among children; evaluate the impacts of cold spells on cause-specific mortality in children; identify the most sensitive temperature exposure and health outcomes to quantify the impact of temperature extremes on children; elucidate the possible modifiers of the temperature and children’s health relationship; and project children’s disease burden under different climate change scenarios.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Isolation and characterization of charge-tagged phenylperoxyl radicals in the gas phase : direct evidence for products and pathways in low temperature benzene oxidation

The phenylperoxyl radical has long been accepted as a critical intermediate in the oxidation of benzene and an archetype for arylperoxyl radicals in combustion and atmospheric chemistry. Despite being central to many contemporary mechanisms underpinning these chemistries, reports of the direct detection or isolation of phenylperoxyl radicals are rare and there is little experimental evidence connecting this intermediate with expected product channels. We have prepared and isolated two charge-tagged phenyl radical models in the gas phase [i.e., 4-(N,N,N-trimethylammonium) phenyl radical cation and 4-carboxylatophenyl radical anion] and observed their reactions with dioxygen by ion-trap mass spectrometry. Measured reaction rates show good agreement with prior reports for the neutral system (k(2)[(Me3N+)C6H4 center dot + O-2] = 2.8 x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), Phi = 4.9%; k(2)[(-O2C)C6H4 center dot + O-2] = 5.4 x 10(-1)1 cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), Phi = 9.2%) and the resulting mass spectra provide unequivocal evidence for the formation of phenylperoxyl radicals. Collisional activation of isolated phenylperoxyl radicals reveals unimolecular decomposition by three pathways: (i) loss of dioxygen to reform the initial phenyl radical; (ii) loss of atomic oxygen yielding a phenoxyl radical; and (iii) ejection of the formyl radical to give cyclopentadienone. Stable isotope labeling confirms these assignments. Quantum chemical calculations for both charge-tagged and neutral phenylperoxyl radicals confirm that loss of formyl radical is accessible both thermodynamically and entropically and competitive with direct loss of both hydrogen atom and carbon dioxide.

Polycarbonate based non-chemically amplified photoresists for extreme ultraviolet lithography

Some initial EUVL patterning results for polycarbonate based non-chemically amplified resists are presented. Without full optimization the developer a resolution of 60 nm line spaces could be obtained. With slight overexposure (1.4 × E0) 43.5 nm lines at a half pitch of 50 nm could be printed. At 2x E0 a 28.6 nm lines at a half pitch of 50 nm could be obtained with a LER that was just above expected for mask roughness. Upon being irradiated with EUV photons, these polymers undergo chain scission with the loss of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. The remaining photoproducts appear to be non-volatile under standard EUV irradiation conditions, but do exhibit increased solubility in developer compared to the unirradiated polymer. The sensitivity of the polymers to EUV light is related to their oxygen content and ways to increase the sensitivity of the polymers to 10 mJ cm-2 is discussed.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Synthesis of MgB2 at low temperature and autogenous pressure

High quality, micron-sized interpenetrating grains of MgB2 with high density are produced at low temperatures (~420oC < T < ~500oC) under autogenous pressure by pre-mixing Mg powder and NaBH4 and heating in an Inconel 601 alloy reactor for 5−15 hours. Optimum production of MgB2 with yields greater than 75% occurs for autogenous pressure in the range 1.0 MPa to 2.0 MPa with the reactor at ~500oC. Autogenous pressure is induced by the decomposition of NaBH4 in the presence of Mg and/or other Mg-based compounds. The morphology, transition temperature and magnetic properties of MgB2 are dependent on the heating regime. Significant improvement in physical properties accrues when the reactor temperature is held at 250oC for >20minutes prior to a hold at 500oC.

The role of ethylene and cold temperature in the regulation of the apple POLYGALACTURONASE1 gene and fruit softening

Fruit softening in apple (Malus 3 domestica) is associated with an increase in the ripening hormone ethylene. Here, we show that in cv Royal Gala apples that have the ethylene biosynthetic gene ACC OXIDASE1 suppressed, a cold treatment preconditions the apples to soften independently of added ethylene. When a cold treatment is followed by an ethylene treatment, a more rapid softening occurs than in apples that have not had a cold treatment. Apple fruit softening has been associated with the increase in the expression of cell wall hydrolase genes. One such gene, POLYGALACTURONASE1 (PG1), increases in expression both with ethylene and following a cold treatment. Transcriptional regulation of PG1 through the ethylene pathway is likely to be through an ETHYLENE-INSENSITIVE3-like transcription factor, which increases in expression during apple fruit development and transactivates the PG1 promoter in transient assays in the presence of ethylene. A coldrelated gene that resembles a COLD BINDING FACTOR (CBF) class of gene also transactivates the PG1 promoter. The transactivation by the CBF-like gene is greatly enhanced by the addition of exogenous ethylene. These observations give a possible molecular mechanism for the coldand ethylene-regulated control of fruit softening and suggest that either these two pathways act independently and synergistically with each other or cold enhances the ethylene response such that background levels of ethylene in the ethylene-suppressed apples is sufficient to induce fruit softening in apples.