A context-fusion framework for enhancing context-awareness on mobile application

Mobile devices and smartphones have become a significant communication channel for everyday life. The sensing capabilities of mobile devices are expanding rapidly, and sensors embedded in these devices are cheaper and more powerful than before. It is evident that mobile devices have become the most suitable candidates to sense contextual information without needing extra tools. However, current research shows only a limited number of sensors are being explored and investigated. As a result, it still needs to be clarified what forms of contextual information extracted from mo- bile sensors are useful. Therefore, this research investigates the context sensing using current mobile sensors, the study follows experimental methods and sensor data is evaluated and synthesised, in order to deduce the value of various sensors and combinations of sensor for the use in context-aware mobile applications. This study aims to develop a context fusion framework that will enhance the context-awareness on mobile applications, as well as exploring innovative techniques for context sensing on smartphone devices.

Using a Bayesian network to model colonisation with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE)

Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.

Establishment and characterisation of an open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach to an ovine thoracic spine fusion model

Background A large animal model is required for assessment of minimally invasive, tissue engineering based approaches to thoracic spine fusion, with relevance to deformity correction surgery for human adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Here we develop a novel open mini–thoracotomy approach in an ovine model of thoracic interbody fusion which allows assessment of various fusion constructs, with a focus on novel, tissue engineering based interventions. Methods The open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach was developed through a series of mock surgeries, and then applied in a live sheep study. Customized scaffolds were manufactured to conform with intervertebral disc space clearances required of the study. Twelve male Merino sheep aged 4 to 6 years and weighing 35 – 45 kg underwent the abovementioned procedure and were divided into two groups of six sheep at survival timelines of 6 and 12 months. Each sheep underwent a 3-level discectomy (T6/7, T8/9 and T10/11) with randomly allocated implantation of a different graft substitute at each of the three levels; (i) polycaprolactone (PCL) based scaffold plus 0.54μg rhBMP-2, (ii) PCL-based scaffold alone or (iii) autograft. The sheep were closely monitored post- operatively for signs of pain (i.e. gait abnormalities/ teeth gnawing/ social isolation). Fusion assessments were conducted post-sacrifice using Computed Tomography and hard-tissue histology. All scientific work was undertaken in accordance with the study protocol has been approved by the Institute's committee on animal research. Results. All twelve sheep were successfully operated on and reached the allotted survival timelines, thereby demonstrating the feasibility of the surgical procedure and post-operative care. There were no significant complications and during the post-operative period the animals did not exhibit marked signs of distress according to the described assessment criteria. Computed Tomographic scanning demonstrated higher fusion grades in the rhBMP-2 plus PCL-based scaffold group in comparison to either PCL-based scaffold alone or autograft. These results were supported by histological evaluation of the respective groups. Conclusion. This novel open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach to the ovine thoracic spine represents a safe surgical method which can reproducibly form the platform for research into various spine tissue engineered constructs (TEC) and their fusion promoting properties.

Biological performance of a polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) in an ovine thoracic interbody fusion model

Introduction. We develop a sheep thoracic spine interbody fusion model to study the suitability of polycaprolactone-based scaffold and recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) as a bone graft substitute within the thoracic spine. The surgical approach is a mini- open thoracotomy with relevance to minimally invasive deformity correction surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. To date there are no studies examining the use of this biodegradable implant in combination with biologics in a sheep thoracic spine model. Methods. In the present study, six sheep underwent a 3-level (T6/7, T8/9 and T10/11) discectomy with randomly allocated implantation of a different graft substitute at each of the three levels; (i) calcium phosphate (CaP) coated polycaprolactone based scaffold plus 0.54µg rhBMP-2, (ii) CaP coated PCL- based scaffold alone or (iii) autograft (mulched rib head). Fusion was assessed at six months post-surgery. Results. Computed Tomographic scanning demonstrated higher fusion grades in the rhBMP-2 plus PCL- based scaffold group in comparison to either PCL-based scaffold alone or autograft. These results were supported by histological evaluations of the respective groups. Biomechanical testing revealed significantly higher stiffness for the rhBMP-2 plus PCL- based scaffold group in all loading directions in comparison to the other two groups. Conclusions. The results of this study demonstrate that rhBMP-2 plus PCL-based scaffold is a viable bone graft substitute, providing an optimal environment for thoracic interbody spinal fusion in a large animal model.

A Bayesian approach to the determination of ignition delay

A novel in-cylinder pressure method for determining ignition delay has been proposed and demonstrated. This method proposes a new Bayesian statistical model to resolve the start of combustion, defined as being the point at which the band-pass in-cylinder pressure deviates from background noise and the combustion resonance begins. Further, it is demonstrated that this method is still accurate in situations where there is noise present. The start of combustion can be resolved for each cycle without the need for ad hoc methods such as cycle averaging. Therefore, this method allows for analysis of consecutive cycles and inter-cycle variability studies. Ignition delay obtained by this method and by the net rate of heat release have been shown to give good agreement. However, the use of combustion resonance to determine the start of combustion is preferable over the net rate of heat release method because it does not rely on knowledge of heat losses and will still function accurately in the presence of noise. Results for a six-cylinder turbo-charged common-rail diesel engine run with neat diesel fuel at full, three quarters and half load have been presented. Under these conditions the ignition delay was shown to increase as the load was decreased with a significant increase in ignition delay at half load, when compared with three quarter and full loads.

Combining elicited expert knowledge into Bayesian priors

Information that is elicited from experts can be treated as `data', so can be analysed using a Bayesian statistical model, to formulate a prior model. Typically methods for encoding a single expert's knowledge have been parametric, constrained by the extent of an expert's knowledge and energy regarding a target parameter. Interestingly these methods have often been deterministic, in that all elicited information is treated at `face value', without error. Here we sought a parametric and statistical approach for encoding assessments from multiple experts. Our recent work proposed and demonstrated the use of a flexible hierarchical model for this purpose. In contrast to previous mathematical approaches like linear or geometric pooling, our new approach accounts for several sources of variation: elicitation error, encoding error and expert diversity. Of interest are the practical, mathematical and philosophical interpretations of this form of hierarchical pooling (which is both statistical and parametric), and how it fits within the subjective Bayesian paradigm. Case studies from a bioassay and project management (on PhDs) are used to illustrate the approach.

Classifier selection using sequential error ratio criterion for multi-instance and multi-sample fusion

Classifier selection is a problem encountered by multi-biometric systems that aim to improve performance through fusion of decisions. A particular decision fusion architecture that combines multiple instances (n classifiers) and multiple samples (m attempts at each classifier) has been proposed in previous work to achieve controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. Although analysis on text-dependent speaker verification has demonstrated better performance for fusion of decisions with favourable dependence compared to statistically independent decisions, the performance is not always optimal. Given a pool of instances, best performance with this architecture is obtained for certain combination of instances. Heuristic rules and diversity measures have been commonly used for classifier selection but it is shown that optimal performance is achieved for the `best combination performance' rule. As the search complexity for this rule increases exponentially with the addition of classifiers, a measure - the sequential error ratio (SER) - is proposed in this work that is specifically adapted to the characteristics of sequential fusion architecture. The proposed measure can be used to select a classifier that is most likely to produce a correct decision at each stage. Error rates for fusion of text-dependent HMM based speaker models using SER are compared with other classifier selection methodologies. SER is shown to achieve near optimal performance for sequential fusion of multiple instances with or without the use of multiple samples. The methodology applies to multiple speech utterances for telephone or internet based access control and to other systems such as multiple finger print and multiple handwriting sample based identity verification systems.

Multi-level information fusion for environment aware robotic navigation

This thesis develops the hardware and software framework for an integrated navigation system. Dynamic data fusion algorithms are used to develop a system with a high level of resistance to the typical problems that affect standard navigation systems.

In-cylinder pressure and inter-cycle variability analysis for a compression ignition engine : Bayesian approaches

This thesis introduced Bayesian statistics as an analysis technique to isolate resonant frequency information in in-cylinder pressure signals taken from internal combustion engines. Applications of these techniques are relevant to engine design (performance and noise), energy conservation (fuel consumption) and alternative fuel evaluation. The use of Bayesian statistics, over traditional techniques, allowed for a more in-depth investigation into previously difficult to isolate engine parameters on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Specifically, these techniques facilitated the determination of the start of pre-mixed and diffusion combustion and for the in-cylinder temperature profile to be resolved on individual consecutive engine cycles. Dr Bodisco further showed the utility of the Bayesian analysis techniques by applying them to in-cylinder pressure signals taken from a compression ignition engine run with fumigated ethanol.

Homeostatic epistemology : reliability, coherence and coordination in a Bayesian virtue epistemology

How do agents with limited cognitive capacities flourish in informationally impoverished or unexpected circumstances? Aristotle argued that human flourishing emerged from knowing about the world and our place within it. If he is right, then the virtuous processes that produce knowledge, best explain flourishing. Influenced by Aristotle, virtue epistemology defends an analysis of knowledge where beliefs are evaluated for their truth and the intellectual virtue or competences relied on in their creation. However, human flourishing may emerge from how degrees of ignorance are managed in an uncertain world. Perhaps decision-making in the shadow of knowledge best explains human wellbeing—a Bayesian approach? In this dissertation I argue that a hybrid of virtue and Bayesian epistemologies explains human flourishing—what I term homeostatic epistemology. Homeostatic epistemology supposes that an agent has a rational credence p when p is the product of reliable processes aligned with the norms of probability theory; whereas an agent knows that p when a rational credence p is the product of reliable processes such that: 1) p meets some relevant threshold for belief (such that the agent acts as though p were true and indeed p is true), 2) p coheres with a satisficing set of relevant beliefs and, 3) the relevant set of beliefs is coordinated appropriately to meet the integrated aims of the agent. Homeostatic epistemology recognizes that justificatory relationships between beliefs are constantly changing to combat uncertainties and to take advantage of predictable circumstances. Contrary to holism, justification is built up and broken down across limited sets like the anabolic and catabolic processes that maintain homeostasis in the cells, organs and systems of the body. It is the coordination of choristic sets of reliably produced beliefs that create the greatest flourishing given the limitations inherent in the situated agent.

Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Bayesian survival analysis using gene expression

This thesis developed and applied Bayesian models for the analysis of survival data. The gene expression was considered as explanatory variables within the Bayesian survival model which can be considered the new contribution in the analysis of such data. The censoring factor that is inherent of survival data has also been addressed in terms of its impact on the fitting of a finite mixture of Weibull distribution with and without covariates. To investigate this, simulation study were carried out under several censoring percentages. Censoring percentage as high as 80% is acceptable here as the work involved high dimensional data. Lastly the Bayesian model averaging approach was developed to incorporate model uncertainty in the prediction of survival.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

An intuitive dashboard for Bayesian network inference

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Sequential decision fusion of multibiometrics applied to text-dependent speaker verification for controlled errors

Reliability of the performance of biometric identity verification systems remains a significant challenge. Individual biometric samples of the same person (identity class) are not identical at each presentation and performance degradation arises from intra-class variability and inter-class similarity. These limitations lead to false accepts and false rejects that are dependent. It is therefore difficult to reduce the rate of one type of error without increasing the other. The focus of this dissertation is to investigate a method based on classifier fusion techniques to better control the trade-off between the verification errors using text-dependent speaker verification as the test platform. A sequential classifier fusion architecture that integrates multi-instance and multisample fusion schemes is proposed. This fusion method enables a controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. For statistically independent classifier decisions, analytical expressions for each type of verification error are derived using base classifier performances. As this assumption may not be always valid, these expressions are modified to incorporate the correlation between statistically dependent decisions from clients and impostors. The architecture is empirically evaluated by applying the proposed architecture for text dependent speaker verification using the Hidden Markov Model based digit dependent speaker models in each stage with multiple attempts for each digit utterance. The trade-off between the verification errors is controlled using the parameters, number of decision stages (instances) and the number of attempts at each decision stage (samples), fine-tuned on evaluation/tune set. The statistical validation of the derived expressions for error estimates is evaluated on test data. The performance of the sequential method is further demonstrated to depend on the order of the combination of digits (instances) and the nature of repetitive attempts (samples). The false rejection and false acceptance rates for proposed fusion are estimated using the base classifier performances, the variance in correlation between classifier decisions and the sequence of classifiers with favourable dependence selected using the 'Sequential Error Ratio' criteria. The error rates are better estimated by incorporating user-dependent (such as speaker-dependent thresholds and speaker-specific digit combinations) and class-dependent (such as clientimpostor dependent favourable combinations and class-error based threshold estimation) information. The proposed architecture is desirable in most of the speaker verification applications such as remote authentication, telephone and internet shopping applications. The tuning of parameters - the number of instances and samples - serve both the security and user convenience requirements of speaker-specific verification. The architecture investigated here is applicable to verification using other biometric modalities such as handwriting, fingerprints and key strokes.