Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Creative industries and innovation in a knowledge economy

The cultural and creative industries contribute to the knowledge economy by their role in reproducing cultural knowledge and through provision of entertainment, experience and leisure goods with cultural content, for which they are widely acknowledged as suffering serious market failure problems (Baumol and Bowen, 1966; Throsby and Withers, 1979). But they also contribute to the innovation process, an aspect that has only recently been appreciated. Specifically, the creative industries are a driver of the knowledge economy by their contribution to the innovation process on the demand side of consumer uptake of new ideas and by their facilitation of consumer-producer interaction. The creative industries are, in this respect, a legitimate part of the innovation system of a knowledge economy.

A Nobel Prize for governance and institutions : Oliver Williamson and Elinor Ostrom

This paper reviews the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics jointly awarded to Oliver Williamson for his work on governance in organizations and the boundaries of the firm, and to Elinor Ostrom for her work on the governance of common pool resources. We review the careers and the research contributions of Williamson and Ostrom to the theory and analysis of economic institutions of governance. Both winners of this Prize for 'economic governance' are thoroughly deserved, yet like the Hayek- Myrdal Prize of 1974 their respective approaches, methods and findings are almost diametrically opposed. Williamson offers a top-down contracts-based solution to the incentive problems of opportunism in corporate governance, whereas Ostrom offers a bottom-up communication-based solution to the governance opportunities of community resources. We offer some critical comments on Williamson's analytic work and discussion of the potential for further application of Ostrom's case-study based experimental methodology. We conclude with a suggested third nominee to make better sense of how these two great scholars' works fit together, namely George Richardson'

Evaluating the success of large-scale, integrated information systems through the lens of IS-impact and IS-support

This study proceeds from a central interest in the importance of systematically evaluating operational large-scale integrated information systems (IS) in organisations. The study is conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The goal of the IS-Impact Track is, "to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice" (Gable et al, 2009). The track espouses programmatic research having the principles of incrementalism, tenacity, holism and generalisability through replication and extension research strategies. Track efforts have yielded the bicameral IS-Impact measurement model; the ‘impact’ half includes Organisational-Impact and Individual-Impact dimensions; the ‘quality’ half includes System-Quality and Information-Quality dimensions. Akin to Gregor’s (2006) analytic theory, the ISImpact model is conceptualised as a formative, multidimensional index and is defined as "a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups" (Gable et al., 2008, p: 381). The study adopts the IS-Impact model (Gable, et al., 2008) as its core theory base. Prior work within the IS-Impact track has been consciously constrained to Financial IS for their homogeneity. This study adopts a context-extension strategy (Berthon et al., 2002) with the aim "to further validate and extend the IS-Impact measurement model in a new context - i.e. a different IS - Human Resources (HR)". The overarching research question is: "How can the impacts of large-scale integrated HR applications be effectively and efficiently benchmarked?" This managerial question (Cooper & Emory, 1995) decomposes into two more specific research questions – In the new HR context: (RQ1): "Is the IS-Impact model complete?" (RQ2): "Is the ISImpact model valid as a 1st-order formative, 2nd-order formative multidimensional construct?" The study adhered to the two-phase approach of Gable et al. (2008) to hypothesise and validate a measurement model. The initial ‘exploratory phase’ employed a zero base qualitative approach to re-instantiating the IS-Impact model in the HR context. The subsequent ‘confirmatory phase’ sought to validate the resultant hypothesised measurement model against newly gathered quantitative data. The unit of analysis for the study is the application, ‘ALESCO’, an integrated large-scale HR application implemented at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), a large Australian university (with approximately 40,000 students and 5000 staff). Target respondents of both study phases were ALESCO key-user-groups: strategic users, management users, operational users and technical users, who directly use ALESCO or its outputs. An open-ended, qualitative survey was employed in the exploratory phase, with the objective of exploring the completeness and applicability of the IS-Impact model’s dimensions and measures in the new context, and to conceptualise any resultant model changes to be operationalised in the confirmatory phase. Responses from 134 ALESCO users to the main survey question, "What do you consider have been the impacts of the ALESCO (HR) system in your division/department since its implementation?" were decomposed into 425 ‘impact citations.’ Citation mapping using a deductive (top-down) content analysis approach instantiated all dimensions and measures of the IS-Impact model, evidencing its content validity in the new context. Seeking to probe additional (perhaps negative) impacts; the survey included the additional open question "In your opinion, what can be done better to improve the ALESCO (HR) system?" Responses to this question decomposed into a further 107 citations which in the main did not map to IS-Impact, but rather coalesced around the concept of IS-Support. Deductively drawing from relevant literature, and working inductively from the unmapped citations, the new ‘IS-Support’ construct, including the four formative dimensions (i) training, (ii) documentation, (iii) assistance, and (iv) authorisation (each having reflective measures), was defined as: "a measure at a point in time, of the support, the [HR] information system key-user groups receive to increase their capabilities in utilising the system." Thus, a further goal of the study became validation of the IS-Support construct, suggesting the research question (RQ3): "Is IS-Support valid as a 1st-order reflective, 2nd-order formative multidimensional construct?" With the aim of validating IS-Impact within its nomological net (identification through structural relations), as in prior work, Satisfaction was hypothesised as its immediate consequence. The IS-Support construct having derived from a question intended to probe IS-Impacts, too was hypothesised as antecedent to Satisfaction, thereby suggesting the research question (RQ4): "What is the relative contribution of IS-Impact and IS-Support to Satisfaction?" With the goal of testing the above research questions, IS-Impact, IS-Support and Satisfaction were operationalised in a quantitative survey instrument. Partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modelling employing 221 valid responses largely evidenced the validity of the commencing IS-Impact model in the HR context. ISSupport too was validated as operationalised (including 11 reflective measures of its 4 formative dimensions). IS-Support alone explained 36% of Satisfaction; IS-Impact alone 70%; in combination both explaining 71% with virtually all influence of ISSupport subsumed by IS-Impact. Key study contributions to research include: (1) validation of IS-Impact in the HR context, (2) validation of a newly conceptualised IS-Support construct as important antecedent of Satisfaction, and (3) validation of the redundancy of IS-Support when gauging IS-Impact. The study also makes valuable contributions to practice, the research track and the sponsoring organisation.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Strategic aesthetics in advertising campaigns : implications for art direction education

For over half a century art directors within the advertising industry have been adapting to the changes occurring in media, culture and the corporate sector, toward enhancing professional performance and competitiveness. These professionals seldom offer explicit justification about the role images play in effective communication. It is uncertain how this situation affects advertising performance, because advertising has, nevertheless, evolved in parallel to this as an industry able to fabricate new opportunities for itself. However, uncertainties in the formalization of art direction knowledge restrict the possibilities of knowledge transfer in higher education. The theoretical knowledge supporting advertising art direction has been adapted spontaneously from disciplines that rarely focus on specific aspects related to the production of advertising content, like, for example: marketing communication, design, visual communication, or visual art. Meanwhile, in scholarly research, vast empirical knowledge has been generated about advertising images, but often with limited insight into production expertise. Because art direction is understood as an industry practice and not as an academic discipline, an art direction perspective in scholarly contributions is rare. Scholarly research that is relevant to art direction seldom offers viewpoints to help understand how it is that research outputs may specifically contribute to art direction practices. This thesis is dedicated to formally understanding the knowledge underlying art direction and using it to explore models for visual analysis and knowledge transfer in higher education. The first three chapters of this thesis offer, firstly, a review of practical and contextual aspects that help define art direction, as a profession and as a component in higher education; secondly, a discussion about visual knowledge; and thirdly, a literature review of theoretical and analytic aspects relevant to art direction knowledge. Drawing on these three chapters, this thesis establishes explicit structures to help in the development of an art direction curriculum in higher education programs. Following these chapters, this thesis explores a theoretical combination of the terms ‘aesthetics’ and ‘strategy’ as foundational notions for the study of art direction. The theoretical exploration of the term ‘strategic aesthetics’ unveils the potential for furthering knowledge in visual commercial practices in general. The empirical part of this research explores ways in which strategic aesthetics notions can extend to methodologies of visual analysis. Using a combination of content analysis and of structures of interpretive analysis offered in visual anthropology, this research discusses issues of methodological appropriation as it shifts aspects of conventional methodologies to take into consideration paradigms of research that are producer-centred. Sampled out of 2759 still ads from the online databases of Cannes Lions Festival, this study uses an instrumental case study of love-related advertising to facilitate the analysis of content. This part of the research helps understand the limitations and functionality of the theoretical and methodological framework explored in the thesis. In light of the findings and discussions produced throughout the thesis, this project aims to provide directions for higher education in relation to art direction and highlights potential pathways for further investigation of strategic aesthetics.

Barriers and facilitators to public bicycle scheme use : a qualitative approach

The purpose of this study was to explore barriers and facilitators to using CityCycle, a public bicycle share scheme in Brisbane, Australia. Focus groups were conducted with participants belonging to one of three categories. Group one consisted of infrequent and noncyclists (no bicycle riding over the past month), group two were regular bicycle riders (ridden a bicycle at least once in the past month) and group three was composed of CityCycle members. A thematic analytic method was used to analyse the data. Three main themes were found: Accessibility/spontaneity, safety and weather/topography. The lengthy sign-up process was thought to stifle the spontaneity typically thought to attract people to public bike share. Mandatory helmet legislation was thought to reduce spontaneous use. Safety was a major concern for all groups and this included a perceived lack of suitable bicycle infrastructure, as well as regular riders describing a negative attitude of some car drivers. Interestingly, CityCycle riders unanimously perceived car driver attitudes to improve when on CityCycle bicycles relative to riding on personal bicycles. Conclusions: In order to increase the popularity of the CityCycle scheme, the results of this study suggest that a more accessible, spontaneous sign-up process is required, 24/7 opening hours, and greater incentives to sign up new members and casual users, as seeing people using CityCycle appears critical to further take up.

Human–computer interaction : the impact of users’ cognitive styles on query reformulation behaviour during web searching

This paper discusses users’ query reformulation behaviour while searching information on the Web. Query reformulations have emerged as an important component of Web search behaviour and human-computer interaction (HCI) because a user’s success of information retrieval (IR) depends on how he or she formulates queries. There are various factors, such as cognitive styles, that influence users’ query reformulation behaviour. Understanding how users with different cognitive styles formulate their queries while performing Web searches can help HCI researchers and information systems (IS) developers to provide assistance to the users. This paper aims to examine the effects of users’ cognitive styles on their query reformation behaviour. To achieve the goal of the study, a user study was conducted in which a total of 3613 search terms and 872 search queries were submitted by 50 users who engaged in 150 scenario-based search tasks. Riding’s (1991) Cognitive Style Analysis (CSA) test was used to assess users’ cognitive style as wholist or analytic, and verbaliser or imager. The study findings show that users’ query reformulation behaviour is affected by their cognitive styles. The results reveal that analytic users tended to prefer Add queries while all other users preferred New queries. A significant difference was found among wholists and analytics in the manner they performed Remove query reformulations. Future HCI researchers and IS developers can utilize the study results to develop interactive and user-cantered search model, and to provide context-based query suggestions for users.

When non-significance may be significant : lessons learned from a study of the development, implementation and evaluation of a fleet risk assessment tool

This paper reports on the development and implementation of a self-report risk assessment tool that was developed in an attempt to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian fleet settings. This study forms a part of a broader program of research into work related road safety and identification of driving risk. The first phase of the study involved a series of focus groups being conducted with 217 professional drivers which revealed that the following factors were proposed to influence driving performance: Fatigue, Knowledge of risk, Mood, Impatience and frustration, Speed limits, Experience, Other road users, Passengers, Health, and Culture. The second phase of the study involved piloting the newly developed 38 item Driving Risk Assessment Scale - Work Version (DRAS-WV) with 546 professional drivers. Factor analytic techniques identified a 9 factor solution that was comprised of speeding, aggression, time pressure, distraction, casualness, awareness, maintenance, fatigue and minor damage. Speeding and aggressive driving manoeuvres were identified to be the most frequent aberrant driving behaviours engaged in by the sample. However, a series of logistic regression analyses undertaken to determine the DRAS-WV scale’s ability to predict self-reported crashes revealed limited predictive efficacy e.g., 10% of crashes. This paper outlines proposed reasons for this limited predictive ability of the DRAS-WV as well as provides suggestions regarding the future of research that aims to develop methods to identify “at risk” drivers.

An analytical tool that quantifies cellular morphology changes from three-dimensional fluorescence images

The most common software analysis tools available for measuring fluorescence images are for two-dimensional (2D) data that rely on manual settings for inclusion and exclusion of data points, and computer-aided pattern recognition to support the interpretation and findings of the analysis. It has become increasingly important to be able to measure fluorescence images constructed from three-dimensional (3D) datasets in order to be able to capture the complexity of cellular dynamics and understand the basis of cellular plasticity within biological systems. Sophisticated microscopy instruments have permitted the visualization of 3D fluorescence images through the acquisition of multispectral fluorescence images and powerful analytical software that reconstructs the images from confocal stacks that then provide a 3D representation of the collected 2D images. Advanced design-based stereology methods have progressed from the approximation and assumptions of the original model-based stereology(1) even in complex tissue sections(2). Despite these scientific advances in microscopy, a need remains for an automated analytic method that fully exploits the intrinsic 3D data to allow for the analysis and quantification of the complex changes in cell morphology, protein localization and receptor trafficking. Current techniques available to quantify fluorescence images include Meta-Morph (Molecular Devices, Sunnyvale, CA) and Image J (NIH) which provide manual analysis. Imaris (Andor Technology, Belfast, Northern Ireland) software provides the feature MeasurementPro, which allows the manual creation of measurement points that can be placed in a volume image or drawn on a series of 2D slices to create a 3D object. This method is useful for single-click point measurements to measure a line distance between two objects or to create a polygon that encloses a region of interest, but it is difficult to apply to complex cellular network structures. Filament Tracer (Andor) allows automatic detection of the 3D neuronal filament-like however, this module has been developed to measure defined structures such as neurons, which are comprised of dendrites, axons and spines (tree-like structure). This module has been ingeniously utilized to make morphological measurements to non-neuronal cells(3), however, the output data provide information of an extended cellular network by using a software that depends on a defined cell shape rather than being an amorphous-shaped cellular model. To overcome the issue of analyzing amorphous-shaped cells and making the software more suitable to a biological application, Imaris developed Imaris Cell. This was a scientific project with the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, which has been developed to calculate the relationship between cells and organelles. While the software enables the detection of biological constraints, by forcing one nucleus per cell and using cell membranes to segment cells, it cannot be utilized to analyze fluorescence data that are not continuous because ideally it builds cell surface without void spaces. To our knowledge, at present no user-modifiable automated approach that provides morphometric information from 3D fluorescence images has been developed that achieves cellular spatial information of an undefined shape (Figure 1). We have developed an analytical platform using the Imaris core software module and Imaris XT interfaced to MATLAB (Mat Works, Inc.). These tools allow the 3D measurement of cells without a pre-defined shape and with inconsistent fluorescence network components. Furthermore, this method will allow researchers who have extended expertise in biological systems, but not familiarity to computer applications, to perform quantification of morphological changes in cell dynamics.

Real-time power line extraction from unmanned aerial system video images

In this paper a real-time vision based power line extraction solution is investigated for active UAV guidance. The line extraction algorithm starts from ridge points detected by steerable filters. A collinear line segments fitting algorithm is followed up by considering global and local information together with multiple collinear measurements. GPU boosted algorithm implementation is also investigated in the experiment. The experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two baseline line detection algorithms and is able to fitting long collinear line segments. The low computational cost of the algorithm make suitable for real-time applications.

Fast power line detection and localization using steerable filter for active UAV guidance

In this paper we present a fast power line detection and localisation algorithm as well as propose a high-level guidance architecture for active vision-based Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) guidance. The detection stage is based on steerable filters for edge ridge detection, followed by a line fitting algorithm to refine candidate power lines in images. The guidance architecture assumes an UAV with an onboard Gimbal camera. We first control the position of the Gimbal such that the power line is in the field of view of the camera. Then its pose is used to generate the appropriate control commands such that the aircraft moves and flies above the lines. We present initial experimental results for the detection stage which shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two state-of-the-art line detection algorithms for power line detection from aerial imagery.

Forging the heteroglossic citizen : articulating local, national, regional and global horizons in the Australian Curriculum

This article offers a discourse analysis comparing selected articles in the national press over the consultative period for Phase 1 subjects in the new Australian Curriculum, with rationales prefacing official Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority documents. It traces how various versions of Australia, its ‘nation-ness’ and its future citizens have been taken up in the final product. The analysis uses Lemke's analytic elaboration of Bakhtin's concept of heteroglossia and its derivative, intertextuality. It identifies a range of intertextual thematic formations around ‘nation’, ‘history’, ‘citizen’ and ‘curriculum’ circulating in the public debates, then traces their presence in official curriculum documents. Rather than concluding that these themes are contradictory and incoherent, the conclusion asks how these multiple dialogic facets of Australian nation-ness potentially offer a better response to complex times than any coherent monologic orthodoxy might.

Pedagogy and paradox : teaching interpretation in a religious community

A qualitative, discourse analytic study of literate practices in a small religious community in a northern Australian city. The chapter documents how this community constructs religious reading and writing, affiliated ideologies and theologies, and how readers/hearers/learners are positions vis a vis the authority of sacred text.

BabelFuse data fusion unit with precision wireless clock synchronisation

A significant issue encountered when fusing data received from multiple sensors is the accuracy of the timestamp associated with each piece of data. This is particularly important in applications such as Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping (SLAM) where vehicle velocity forms an important part of the mapping algorithms; on fastmoving vehicles, even millisecond inconsistencies in data timestamping can produce errors which need to be compensated for. The timestamping problem is compounded in a robot swarm environment due to the use of non-deterministic readily-available hardware (such as 802.11-based wireless) and inaccurate clock synchronisation protocols (such as Network Time Protocol (NTP)). As a result, the synchronisation of the clocks between robots can be out by tens-to-hundreds of milliseconds making correlation of data difficult and preventing the possibility of the units performing synchronised actions such as triggering cameras or intricate swarm manoeuvres. In this thesis, a complete data fusion unit is designed, implemented and tested. The unit, named BabelFuse, is able to accept sensor data from a number of low-speed communication buses (such as RS232, RS485 and CAN Bus) and also timestamp events that occur on General Purpose Input/Output (GPIO) pins referencing a submillisecondaccurate wirelessly-distributed "global" clock signal. In addition to its timestamping capabilities, it can also be used to trigger an attached camera at a predefined start time and frame rate. This functionality enables the creation of a wirelessly-synchronised distributed image acquisition system over a large geographic area; a real world application for this functionality is the creation of a platform to facilitate wirelessly-distributed 3D stereoscopic vision. A ‘best-practice’ design methodology is adopted within the project to ensure the final system operates according to its requirements. Initially, requirements are generated from which a high-level architecture is distilled. This architecture is then converted into a hardware specification and low-level design, which is then manufactured. The manufactured hardware is then verified to ensure it operates as designed and firmware and Linux Operating System (OS) drivers are written to provide the features and connectivity required of the system. Finally, integration testing is performed to ensure the unit functions as per its requirements. The BabelFuse System comprises of a single Grand Master unit which is responsible for maintaining the absolute value of the "global" clock. Slave nodes then determine their local clock o.set from that of the Grand Master via synchronisation events which occur multiple times per-second. The mechanism used for synchronising the clocks between the boards wirelessly makes use of specific hardware and a firmware protocol based on elements of the IEEE-1588 Precision Time Protocol (PTP). With the key requirement of the system being submillisecond-accurate clock synchronisation (as a basis for timestamping and camera triggering), automated testing is carried out to monitor the o.sets between each Slave and the Grand Master over time. A common strobe pulse is also sent to each unit for timestamping; the correlation between the timestamps of the di.erent units is used to validate the clock o.set results. Analysis of the automated test results show that the BabelFuse units are almost threemagnitudes more accurate than their requirement; clocks of the Slave and Grand Master units do not di.er by more than three microseconds over a running time of six hours and the mean clock o.set of Slaves to the Grand Master is less-than one microsecond. The common strobe pulse used to verify the clock o.set data yields a positive result with a maximum variation between units of less-than two microseconds and a mean value of less-than one microsecond. The camera triggering functionality is verified by connecting the trigger pulse output of each board to a four-channel digital oscilloscope and setting each unit to output a 100Hz periodic pulse with a common start time. The resulting waveform shows a maximum variation between the rising-edges of the pulses of approximately 39¥ìs, well below its target of 1ms.