Wandering and the physical environment

Background/Rationale Guided by the need-driven dementia-compromised behavior (NDB) model, this study examined influences of the physical environment on wandering behavior. Methods Using a descriptive, cross-sectional design, 122 wanderers from 28 long-term care (LTC) facilities were videotaped 10 to 12 times; data on wandering, light, sound, temperature and humidity levels, location, ambiance, and crowding were obtained. Associations between environmental variables and wandering were evaluated with chi-square and t tests; the model was evaluated using logistic regression. Results In all, 80% of wandering occurred in the resident’s own room, dayrooms, hallways, or dining rooms. When observed in other residents’ rooms, hallways, shower/baths, or off-unit locations, wanderers were likely (60%-92% of observations) to wander. The data were a good fit to the model overall (LR [logistic regression] χ2 (5) = 50.38, P < .0001) and by wandering type. Conclusions Location, light, sound, proximity of others, and ambiance are associated with wandering and may serve to inform environmental designs and care practices.

Tactical driver lane change model using forward search

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a tactical lane change model using the forward search algorithm, for use in a traffic simulator. The tactical lane change model constructs a set of possible choices of near-term maneuver sequences available to the driver and selects the lane change action at the present time to realize the best maneuver plan. Including near term maneuver planning in the driver behavior model can allow a better representation of the complex interactions in situations such as a weaving section and high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane systems where drivers must weave across several lanes in order to access the HOV lanes. To support the investigation, a longitudinal control model and a basic lane change model were also analyzed. The basic lane change model is similar to those used by today's commonly-used traffic simulators. Parameters in all models were best-fit estimated for selected vehicles from a real-world freeway vehicle trajectory data set. The best-fit estimation procedure minimizes the discrepancy between the model vehicle and real vehicle's trajectories. With the best fit parameters, the proposed tactical lane change model gave a better overall performance for a greater number of cases than the basic lane change model.

Soil carbon saturation : concept, evidence and evaluation

Current estimates of soil C storage potential are based on models or factors that assume linearity between C input levels and C stocks at steady-state, implying that SOC stocks could increase without limit as C input levels increase. However, some soils show little or no increase in steady-state SOC stock with increasing C input levels suggesting that SOC can become saturated with respect to C input. We used long-term field experiment data to assess alternative hypotheses of soil carbon storage by three simple models: a linear model (no saturation), a one-pool whole-soil C saturation model, and a two-pool mixed model with C saturation of a single C pool, but not the whole soil. The one-pool C saturation model best fit the combined data from 14 sites, four individual sites were best-fit with the linear model, and no sites were best fit by the mixed model. These results indicate that existing agricultural field experiments generally have too small a range in C input levels to show saturation behavior, and verify the accepted linear relationship between soil C and C input used to model SOM dynamics. However, all sites combined and the site with the widest range in C input levels were best fit with the C-saturation model. Nevertheless, the same site produced distinct effective stabilization capacity curves rather than an absolute C saturation level. We conclude that the saturation of soil C does occur and therefore the greatest efficiency in soil C sequestration will be in soils further from C saturation.

Role and purpose of standards in the context of national curriculum and assessment reform for accountability, improvement and equity in student learning

In this article our starting point is the current context of national curriculum change and intense speculation about the assessment, standards and reporting. It is written against a background of accountability measures and improvement imperatives, and focuses attention on standards as offering representations of quality. We understand standards to be constructs that aim to achieve public credibility and utility. Further, they can be examined for the purposes they seek to serve and also their expected functions. Fitness for purpose is therefore a useful notion in considering the nature of standards. Our interest in the discussion is the ‘fit’ between how standards are formulated and how they are used in practice, by whom and for what purposes. A related interest is in the matter of how standards can be harnessed to realise improvement.

Creativity, knowledge, engagement : keys to finding the right governance model for a regional community precinct

This paper investigates the Cooroy Mill community precinct (Sunshine Coast, Queensland), as a case study, seeking to understand the way local dynamics interplay and work with the community strengths to build a governance model of best fit. As we move to an age of ubiquitous computing and creative economies, the definition of public place and its governance take on new dimensions, which – while often utilizing models of the past – will need to acknowledge and change to the direction of the future. This paper considers a newly developed community precinct that has been built on three key principles: to foster creative expression with new media, to establish a knowledge economy in a regional area, and to subscribe to principles of community engagement. The study involved qualitative interviews with key stakeholders and a review of common practice models of governance along a spectrum from community control to state control. The paper concludes with a call for governance structures that are locally situated and tailored, inclusive, engaging, dynamic and flexible in order to build community capacity, encourage creativity, and build knowledge economies within emerging digital media cityscapes.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Lateral shearing interferometry, dynamic wavefront sensing, and high-speed videokeratoscopy for noninvasive assessment of tear film surface characteristics : a comparitive study

There are several noninvasive techniques for assessing the kinetics of tear film, but no comparative studies have been conducted to evaluate their efficacies. Our aim is to test and compare techniques based on high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), dynamic wavefront sensing (DWS), and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). Algorithms are developed to estimate the tear film build-up time TBLD, and the average tear film surface quality in the stable phase of the interblink interval TFSQAv. Moderate but significant correlations are found between TBLD measured with LSI and DWS based on vertical coma (Pearson's r2=0.34, p<0.01) and higher order rms (r2=0.31, p<0.01), as well as between TFSQAv measured with LSI and HSV (r2=0.35, p<0.01), and between LSI and DWS based on the rms fit error (r2=0.40, p<0.01). No significant correlation is found between HSV and DWS. All three techniques estimate tear film build-up time to be below 2.5 sec, and they achieve a remarkably close median value of 0.7 sec. HSV appears to be the most precise method for measuring tear film surface quality. LSI appears to be the most sensitive method for analyzing tear film build-up.

Psychometric analysis of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure (B-PEM)

Purpose: To undertake rigorous psychometric testing of the newly developed contemporary work environment measure (the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure [B-PEM]) using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Methods: Content validity of the 33-item measure was established by a panel of experts. Initial testing involved 195 nursing staff using principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation (orthogonal) and Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted using data from a further 983 nursing staff. Results: Principal component factor analysis yielded a four-factor solution with eigenvalues greater than 1 that explained 52.53% of the variance. These factors were then verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Goodness-of-fit indices showed an acceptable fit overall with the full model, explaining 21% to 73% of the variance. Deletion of items took place throughout the evolution of the instrument, resulting in a 26-item, four-factor measure called the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure-Tested. Conclusions: The B-PEM has undergone rigorous psychometric testing, providing evidence of internal consistency and goodness-of-fit indices within acceptable ranges. The measure can be utilised as a subscale or total score reflective of a contemporary nursing work environment. Clinical Relevance: An up-to-date instrument to measure practice environment may be useful for nursing leaders to monitor the workplace and to assist in identifying areas for improvement, facilitating greater job satisfaction and retention.

Validation of the Chinese version of the Problem Areas in Diabetes (PAID-C) scale

OBJECTIVE To examine the psychometric properties of a Chinese version of the Problem Areas In Diabetes (PAID-C) scale. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The reliability and validity of the PAID-C were evaluated in a convenience sample of 205 outpatients with type 2 diabetes. Confirmatory factor analysis, Bland-Altman analysis, and Spearman's correlations facilitated the psychometric evaluation. RESULTS Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a one-factor structure of the PAID-C (χ2/df ratio = 1.894, goodness-of-fit index = 0.901, comparative fit index = 0.905, root mean square error of approximation = 0.066). The PAID-C was associated with A1C (rs = 0.15; P < 0.05) and diabetes self-care behaviors in general diet (rs = −0.17; P < 0.05) and exercise (rs = −0.17; P < 0.05). The 4-week test-retest reliability demonstrated satisfactory stability (rs = 0.83; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS The PAID-C is a reliable and valid measure to determine diabetes-related emotional distress in Chinese people with type 2 diabetes.

Letting go of Neo-Liberalism (with some help from Michel Foucault)

Neo-liberalism has become one of the boom concepts of our time. From its original reference point as a descriptor of the economics of the “Chicago School” such as Milton Friedman, or authors such as Friedrich von Hayek, neo-liberalism has become an all-purpose descriptor and explanatory device for phenomena as diverse as Bollywood weddings, standardized testing in schools, violence in Australian cinema, and the digitization of content in public libraries. Moreover, it has become an entirely pejorative term: no-one refers to their own views as “neo-liberal”, but it rather refers to the erroneous views held by others, whether they acknowledge this or not. Neo-liberalism as it has come to be used, then, bears many of the hallmarks of a dominant ideology theory in the classical Marxist sense, even if it is often not explored in these terms. This presentation will take the opportunity provided by the English language publication of Michel Foucault’s 1978-79 lectures, under the title of The Birth of Biopolitics, to consider how he used the term neo-liberalism, and how this equates with its current uses in critical social and cultural theory. It will be argued that Foucault did not understand neo-liberalism as a dominant ideology in these lectures, but rather as marking a point of inflection in the historical evolution of liberal political philosophies of government. It will also be argued that his interpretation of neo-liberalism was more nuanced and more comparative than the more recent uses of Foucault in the literature on neo-liberalism. It will also look at how Foucault develops comparative historical models of liberal capitalism in The Birth of Biopolitics, arguing that this dimension of his work has been lost in more recent interpretations, which tend to retro-fit Foucault to contemporary critiques of either U.S. neo-conservatism or the “Third Way” of Tony Blair’s New Labour in the UK.