Safety envelope for security

We present an approach for detecting sensor spoofing attacks on a cyber-physical system. Our approach consists of two steps. In the first step, we construct a safety envelope of the system. Under nominal conditions (that is, when there are no attacks), the system always stays inside its safety envelope. In the second step, we build an attack detector: a monitor that executes synchronously with the system and raises an alarm whenever the system state falls outside the safety envelope. We synthesize safety envelopes using a modified machine learning procedure applied on data collected from the system when it is not under attack. We present experimental results that show effectiveness of our approach, and also validate the several novel features that we introduced in our learning procedure.

Genome-wide interaction analysis reveals replicated epistatic effects on brain structure

The discovery of several genes that affect the risk for Alzheimer's disease ignited a worldwide search for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), common genetic variants that affect the brain. Genome-wide search of all possible SNP-SNP interactions is challenging and rarely attempted because of the complexity of conducting approximately 1011 pairwise statistical tests. However, recent advances in machine learning, for example, iterative sure independence screening, make it possible to analyze data sets with vastly more predictors than observations. Using an implementation of the sure independence screening algorithm (called EPISIS), we performed a genome-wide interaction analysis testing all possible SNP-SNP interactions affecting regional brain volumes measured on magnetic resonance imaging and mapped using tensor-based morphometry. We identified a significant SNP-SNP interaction between rs1345203 and rs1213205 that explains 1.9% of the variance in temporal lobe volume. We mapped the whole brain, voxelwise effects of the interaction in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data set and separately in an independent replication data set of healthy twins (Queensland Twin Imaging). Each additional loading in the interaction effect was associated with approximately 5% greater brain regional brain volume (a protective effect) in both Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Queensland Twin Imaging samples.

Exhaustive search of the SNP-sNP interactome identifies epistatic effects on brain volume in two cohorts

The SNP-SNP interactome has rarely been explored in the context of neuroimaging genetics mainly due to the complexity of conducting approximately 10(11) pairwise statistical tests. However, recent advances in machine learning, specifically the iterative sure independence screening (SIS) method, have enabled the analysis of datasets where the number of predictors is much larger than the number of observations. Using an implementation of the SIS algorithm (called EPISIS), we used exhaustive search of the genome-wide, SNP-SNP interactome to identify and prioritize SNPs for interaction analysis. We identified a significant SNP pair, rs1345203 and rs1213205, associated with temporal lobe volume. We further examined the full-brain, voxelwise effects of the interaction in the ADNI dataset and separately in an independent dataset of healthy twins (QTIM). We found that each additional loading in the epistatic effect was associated with approximately 5% greater brain regional brain volume (a protective effect) in both the ADNI and QTIM samples.

Robotic detection and tracking of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish

This paper presents a novel vision-based underwater robotic system for the identification and control of Crown-Of-Thorns starfish (COTS) in coral reef environments. COTS have been identified as one of the most significant threats to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These starfish literally eat coral, impacting large areas of reef and the marine ecosystem that depends on it. Evidence has suggested that land-based nutrient runoff has accelerated recent outbreaks of COTS requiring extensive use of divers to manually inject biological agents into the starfish in an attempt to control population numbers. Facilitating this control program using robotics is the goal of our research. In this paper we introduce a vision-based COTS detection and tracking system based on a Random Forest Classifier (RFC) trained on images from underwater footage. To track COTS with a moving camera, we embed the RFC in a particle filter detector and tracker where the predicted class probability of the RFC is used as an observation probability to weight the particles, and we use a sparse optical flow estimation for the prediction step of the filter. The system is experimentally evaluated in a realistic laboratory setup using a robotic arm that moves a camera at different speeds and heights over a range of real-size images of COTS in a reef environment.

Integration over song classification replicates: song variant analysis in the hihi

Human expert analyses are commonly used in bioacoustic studies and can potentially limit the reproducibility of these results. In this paper, a machine learning method is presented to statistically classify avian vocalizations. Automated approaches were applied to isolate bird songs from long field recordings, assess song similarities, and classify songs into distinct variants. Because no positive controls were available to assess the true classification of variants, multiple replicates of automatic classification of song variants were analyzed to investigate clustering uncertainty. The automatic classifications were more similar to the expert classifications than expected by chance. Application of these methods demonstrated the presence of discrete song variants in an island population of the New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta). The geographic patterns of song variation were then revealed by integrating over classification replicates. Because this automated approach considers variation in song variant classification, it reduces potential human bias and facilitates the reproducibility of the results.

Generalizing the use of geographical weights in biodiversity modelling

Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.

One practical algorithm for both stochastic and adversarial bandits

We present an algorithm for multiarmed bandits that achieves almost optimal performance in both stochastic and adversarial regimes without prior knowledge about the nature of the environment. Our algorithm is based on augmentation of the EXP3 algorithm with a new control lever in the form of exploration parameters that are tailored individually for each arm. The algorithm simultaneously applies the “old” control lever, the learning rate, to control the regret in the adversarial regime and the new control lever to detect and exploit gaps between the arm losses. This secures problem-dependent “logarithmic” regret when gaps are present without compromising on the worst-case performance guarantee in the adversarial regime. We show that the algorithm can exploit both the usual expected gaps between the arm losses in the stochastic regime and deterministic gaps between the arm losses in the adversarial regime. The algorithm retains “logarithmic” regret guarantee in the stochastic regime even when some observations are contaminated by an adversary, as long as on average the contamination does not reduce the gap by more than a half. Our results for the stochastic regime are supported by experimental validation.

Structure matters: Adoption of structured classification Approach in the context of cognitive presence classification

Within online learning communities, receiving timely and meaningful insights into the quality of learning activities is an important part of an effective educational experience. Commonly adopted methods – such as the Community of Inquiry framework – rely on manual coding of online discussion transcripts, which is a costly and time consuming process. There are several efforts underway to enable the automated classification of online discussion messages using supervised machine learning, which would enable the real-time analysis of interactions occurring within online learning communities. This paper investigates the importance of incorporating features that utilise the structure of on-line discussions for the classification of "cognitive presence" – the central dimension of the Community of Inquiry framework focusing on the quality of students' critical thinking within online learning communities. We implemented a Conditional Random Field classification solution, which incorporates structural features that may be useful in increasing classification performance over other implementations. Our approach leads to an improvement in classification accuracy of 5.8% over current existing techniques when tested on the same dataset, with a precision and recall of 0.630 and 0.504 respectively.

Turning gaming EEG peripherals into trainable brain computer interfaces

Companies such as NeuroSky and Emotiv Systems are selling non-medical EEG devices for human computer interaction. These devices are significantly more affordable than their medical counterparts, and are mainly used to measure levels of engagement, focus, relaxation and stress. This information is sought after for marketing research and games. However, these EEG devices have the potential to enable users to interact with their surrounding environment using thoughts only, without activating any muscles. In this paper, we present preliminary results that demonstrate that despite reduced voltage and time sensitivity compared to medical-grade EEG systems, the quality of the signals of the Emotiv EPOC neuroheadset is sufficiently good in allowing discrimina tion between imaging events. We collected streams of EEG raw data and trained different types of classifiers to discriminate between three states (rest and two imaging events). We achieved a generalisation error of less than 2% for two types of non-linear classifiers.

From vision to actions: Towards adaptive and autonomous humanoid robots

Although robotics research has seen advances over the last decades robots are still not in widespread use outside industrial applications. Yet a range of proposed scenarios have robots working together, helping and coexisting with humans in daily life. In all these a clear need to deal with a more unstructured, changing environment arises. I herein present a system that aims to overcome the limitations of highly complex robotic systems, in terms of autonomy and adaptation. The main focus of research is to investigate the use of visual feedback for improving reaching and grasping capabilities of complex robots. To facilitate this a combined integration of computer vision and machine learning techniques is employed. From a robot vision point of view the combination of domain knowledge from both imaging processing and machine learning techniques, can expand the capabilities of robots. I present a novel framework called Cartesian Genetic Programming for Image Processing (CGP-IP). CGP-IP can be trained to detect objects in the incoming camera streams and successfully demonstrated on many different problem domains. The approach requires only a few training images (it was tested with 5 to 10 images per experiment) is fast, scalable and robust yet requires very small training sets. Additionally, it can generate human readable programs that can be further customized and tuned. While CGP-IP is a supervised-learning technique, I show an integration on the iCub, that allows for the autonomous learning of object detection and identification. Finally this dissertation includes two proof-of-concepts that integrate the motion and action sides. First, reactive reaching and grasping is shown. It allows the robot to avoid obstacles detected in the visual stream, while reaching for the intended target object. Furthermore the integration enables us to use the robot in non-static environments, i.e. the reaching is adapted on-the- fly from the visual feedback received, e.g. when an obstacle is moved into the trajectory. The second integration highlights the capabilities of these frameworks, by improving the visual detection by performing object manipulation actions.

Minimizing overprocessing waste in business processes via predictive activity ordering

Overprocessing waste occurs in a business process when effort is spent in a way that does not add value to the customer nor to the business. Previous studies have identied a recurrent overprocessing pattern in business processes with so-called "knockout checks", meaning activities that classify a case into "accepted" or "rejected", such that if the case is accepted it proceeds forward, while if rejected, it is cancelled and all work performed in the case is considered unnecessary. Thus, when a knockout check rejects a case, the effort spent in other (previous) checks becomes overprocessing waste. Traditional process redesign methods propose to order knockout checks according to their mean effort and rejection rate. This paper presents a more fine-grained approach where knockout checks are ordered at runtime based on predictive machine learning models. Experiments on two real-life processes show that this predictive approach outperforms traditional methods while incurring minimal runtime overhead.

Automatic ICD-10 classification of cancers from free-text death certificates

Objective Death certificates provide an invaluable source for cancer mortality statistics; however, this value can only be realised if accurate, quantitative data can be extracted from certificates – an aim hampered by both the volume and variable nature of certificates written in natural language. This paper proposes an automatic classification system for identifying cancer related causes of death from death certificates. Methods Detailed features, including terms, n-grams and SNOMED CT concepts were extracted from a collection of 447,336 death certificates. These features were used to train Support Vector Machine classifiers (one classifier for each cancer type). The classifiers were deployed in a cascaded architecture: the first level identified the presence of cancer (i.e., binary cancer/nocancer) and the second level identified the type of cancer (according to the ICD-10 classification system). A held-out test set was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifiers according to precision, recall and F-measure. In addition, detailed feature analysis was performed to reveal the characteristics of a successful cancer classification model. Results The system was highly effective at identifying cancer as the underlying cause of death (F-measure 0.94). The system was also effective at determining the type of cancer for common cancers (F-measure 0.7). Rare cancers, for which there was little training data, were difficult to classify accurately (F-measure 0.12). Factors influencing performance were the amount of training data and certain ambiguous cancers (e.g., those in the stomach region). The feature analysis revealed a combination of features were important for cancer type classification, with SNOMED CT concept and oncology specific morphology features proving the most valuable. Conclusion The system proposed in this study provides automatic identification and characterisation of cancers from large collections of free-text death certificates. This allows organisations such as Cancer Registries to monitor and report on cancer mortality in a timely and accurate manner. In addition, the methods and findings are generally applicable beyond cancer classification and to other sources of medical text besides death certificates.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

A bottom-up integration of vision and actions to create cognitive humanoids

In recent years more and more complex humanoid robots have been developed. On the other hand programming these systems has become more difficult. There is a clear need for such robots to be able to adapt and perform certain tasks autonomously, or even learn by themselves how to act. An important issue to tackle is the closing of the sensorimotor loop. Especially when talking about humanoids the tight integration of perception with actions will allow for improved behaviours, embedding adaptation on the lower-level of the system.

Nonparametric traversability estimation in partially occluded and deformable terrain

Terrain traversability estimation is a fundamental requirement to ensure the safety of autonomous planetary rovers and their ability to conduct long-term missions. This paper addresses two fundamental challenges for terrain traversability estimation techniques. First, representations of terrain data, which are typically built by the rover’s onboard exteroceptive sensors, are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Second, during terrain traversal, the rover-terrain interaction can cause terrain deformation, which may significantly alter the difficulty of traversal. We propose a novel approach built on Gaussian process (GP) regression to learn, and consequently to predict, the rover’s attitude and chassis configuration on unstructured terrain using terrain geometry information only. First, given incomplete terrain data, we make an initial prediction under the assumption that the terrain is rigid, using a learnt kernel function. Then, we refine this initial estimate to account for the effects of potential terrain deformation, using a near-to-far learning approach based on multitask GP regression. We present an extensive experimental validation of the proposed approach on terrain that is mostly rocky and whose geometry changes as a result of loads from rover traversals. This demonstrates the ability of the proposed approach to accurately predict the rover’s attitude and configuration in partially occluded and deformable terrain.