Identifying risk factors and protective factors for venous leg ulcer recurrence using a theoretical approach : a longitudinal study

Background The high recurrence rate of chronic venous leg ulcers has a significant impact on an individual’s quality of life and healthcare costs. Objectives This study aimed to identify risk and protective factors for recurrence of venous leg ulcers using a theoretical approach by applying a framework of self and family management of chronic conditions to underpin the study. Design Secondary analysis of combined data collected from three previous prospective longitudinal studies. Setting The contributing studies’ participants were recruited from two metropolitan hospital outpatient wound clinics and three community-based wound clinics. Participants Data were available on a sample of 250 adults, with a leg ulcer of primarily venous aetiology, who were followed after ulcer healing for a median follow-up time of 17 months after healing (range: 3 to 36 months). Methods Data from the three studies were combined. The original participant data were collected through medical records and self-reported questionnaires upon healing and every 3 months thereafter. A Cox proportion-hazards regression analysis was undertaken to determine the influential factors on leg ulcer recurrence based on the proposed conceptual framework. Results The median time to recurrence was 42 weeks (95% CI 31.9–52.0), with an incidence of 22% (54 of 250 participants) recurrence within three months of healing, 39% (91 of 235 participants) for those who were followed for six months, 57% (111 of 193) by 12 months, 73% (53 of 72) by two years and 78% (41 of 52) of those who were followed up for three years. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model revealed that the risk factors for recurrence included a history of deep vein thrombosis (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.07–2.67, p=0.024), history of multiple previous leg ulcers (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.84–10.5, p=0.001), and longer duration (in weeks) of previous ulcer (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.003–1.01, p<0.001); while the protective factors were elevating legs for at least 30 minutes per day (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19–0.56, p<0.001), higher levels of self-efficacy (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92–0.99, p=0.016), and walking around for at least three hours/day (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44–0.98, p=0.040). Conclusions Results from this study provide a comprehensive examination of risk and protective factors associated with leg ulcer recurrence based on the chronic disease self and family management framework. These results in turn provide essential steps towards developing and testing interventions to promote optimal prevention strategies for venous leg ulcer recurrence.

Open problem: Shifting experts on easy data

A number of online algorithms have been developed that have small additional loss (regret) compared to the best “shifting expert”. In this model, there is a set of experts and the comparator is the best partition of the trial sequence into a small number of segments, where the expert of smallest loss is chosen in each segment. The regret is typically defined for worst-case data / loss sequences. There has been a recent surge of interest in online algorithms that combine good worst-case guarantees with much improved performance on easy data. A practically relevant class of easy data is the case when the loss of each expert is iid and the best and second best experts have a gap between their mean loss. In the full information setting, the FlipFlop algorithm by De Rooij et al. (2014) combines the best of the iid optimal Follow-The-Leader (FL) and the worst-case-safe Hedge algorithms, whereas in the bandit information case SAO by Bubeck and Slivkins (2012) competes with the iid optimal UCB and the worst-case-safe EXP3. We ask the same question for the shifting expert problem. First, we ask what are the simple and efficient algorithms for the shifting experts problem when the loss sequence in each segment is iid with respect to a fixed but unknown distribution. Second, we ask how to efficiently unite the performance of such algorithms on easy data with worst-case robustness. A particular intriguing open problem is the case when the comparator shifts within a small subset of experts from a large set under the assumption that the losses in each segment are iid.

Hearing parties' voices in Coordinated Family Dispute Resolution (CFDR) : An Australian pilot of a family mediation model designed for matters involving a history of domestic violence

This paper discusses the Coordinated Family Dispute Resolution (family mediation) process piloted in Australia in 2010–2012. This process was evaluated by the Australian Institute of Family Studies as being ‘at the cutting edge of family law practice’ because it involves the conscious application of mediation where there has been a history of family violence, in a clinically collaborative multidisciplinary and multi-agency setting. The Australian government’s failure to invest resources in the ongoing funding of this model jeopardises the safety and efficacy of family dispute resolution practice in family violence contexts, and compromises the hearing of the voices of family violence victims and their children.

Thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex and molecular dynamics simulation for urea molecule orientation

The thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex was investigated by thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry (TG–DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). In addition, the interaction mode of urea molecules intercalated into the kaolinite gallery was studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation. Three main mass losses were observed at 136 °C, in the range of 210–270 °C, and at 500 °C in the TG–DSC curves, which were, respectively, attributed to (1) melting of the surface-adsorbed urea, (2) removal of the intercalated urea, and (3) dehydroxylation of the deintercalated kaolinite. The three DSC endothermic peaks at 218, 250, and 261 °C were related to the successive removals of intercalated urea with three different distribution structures. Based on the angle between the dipole moment vector of urea and the basal surface of kaolinite, the three urea models could be described as follows: (1) Type A, the dipole moment vector is nearly parallel to the basal surface of kaolinite; (2) Type B, the dipole moment vector points to the silica tetrahedron with the angle between it and the basal surface of kaolinite ranging from 20°to 40°; and (3) Type C, the dipole moment vector is nearly perpendicular to the basal surface of kaolinite. The three distribution structures of urea molecules were validated by the results of the molecular dynamics simulation. Furthermore, the thermal behavior of the kaolinite–urea intercalation complex investigated by TG–DSC was also supported by FTIR and XRD analyses.

Analysis and improvement of a construction permit approval process: A teaching case for developing business process development capabilities, targeting developing nations

With the increasing competitiveness in global markets, many developing nations are striving to constantly improve their services in search for the next competitive edge. As a result, the demand and need for Business Process Management (BPM) in these regions is seeing a rapid rise. Yet there exists a lack of professional expertise and knowledge to cater to that need. Therefore, the development of well-structured BPM training/ education programs has become an urgent requirement for these industries. Furthermore, the lack of textbooks or other self-educating material, that go beyond the basics of BPM, further ratifies the need for case based teaching and related cases that enable the next generation of professionals in these countries. Teaching cases create an authentic learning environment where complexities and challenges of the ‘real world’ can be presented in a narrative, enabling students to evolve crucial skills such as problem analysis, problem solving, creativity within constraints as well as the application of appropriate tools (BPMN) and techniques (including best practices and benchmarking) within richer and real scenarios. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive teaching case demonstrating the means to tackle any developing nation’s legacy government process undermined by inefficiency and ineffectiveness. The paper also includes thorough teaching notes The article is presented in three main parts: (i) Introduction - that provides a brief background setting the context of this paper, (ii) The Teaching Case, and (iii) Teaching notes.

An experimental investigation of moral commitments

This thesis explored the impact of non-contractual agreements in economic decisions. These statements of intent serve as a commitment device in strategic decisions and have been found to be an effective alternative to strong regulations in promoting social behaviour. Three studies have been undertaken using conceptual and methodological approaches from Behavioral and Experimental Economics. The first study explored in a public good setting the effect of public statements about intended social behaviour. The second study tested whether promises can help to promote co-operation in environments with uncertain choice options. The third study investigated a possible application of statement of intent and tested the effect of payment promises in a tax setting.

Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA

Metabolic imaging using positron emission tomography (PET) has found increasing clinical use for the management of infiltrating tumours such as glioma. However, the heterogeneous biological nature of tumours and intrinsic treatment resistance in some regions means that knowledge of multiple biological factors is needed for effective treatment planning. For example, the use of 18F-FDOPA to identify infiltrative tumour and 18F-FMISO for localizing hypoxic regions. Performing multiple PET acquisitions is impractical in many clinical settings, but previous studies suggest multiplexed PET imaging could be viable. The fidelity of the two signals is affected by the injection interval, scan timing and injected dose. The contribution of this work is to propose a framework to explicitly trade-off signal fidelity with logistical constraints when designing the imaging protocol. The particular case of estimating 18F-FMISO from a single frame prior to injection of 18F-FDOPA is considered. Theoretical experiments using simulations for typical biological scenarios in humans demonstrate that results comparable to a pair of single-tracer acquisitions can be obtained provided protocol timings are carefully selected. These results were validated using a pre-clinical data set that was synthetically multiplexed. The results indicate that the dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA could be feasible in the clinical setting. The proposed framework could also be used to design protocols for other tracers.

Postprocedural effects of gastrointestinal endoscopy performed as a day case procedure in children : implications for patient and family education

A prospective design that included a survey tool, nursing care records, and telephone interview was used to determine postprocedural effects experienced by children and families following gastrointestinal endoscopy performed as a day procedure. One hundred twenty-one children attending a pediatric gastroenterology unit for endoscopy under general anesthesia participated in the study. Physical symptoms, day care/school attendance, behavioral issues, and economic factors in the 72 hours post procedure were identified. Over half the children (n = 69, 57%) experienced pain in the hospital post procedure. Pain was reported by 73 children (60%) at home on the day of the procedure, by 55 children (45%) on Day 1 post procedure, and by 37 children (31%) on Day 2 post procedure. The throat was the most common site of pain. Nausea or vomiting was experienced by 37 children (31%) at some time following their procedure but was not associated with procedure type, age, or fasting time. Over half the children (n = 53, 51%) who usually attended day care or school did not attend the day following their procedure. Twenty-four parents (40%) who would normally have worked on the day after the procedure did not attend employment. These findings have been used to improve the preprocedural information and discharge management of patients treated in a pediatric gastroenterology ambulatory setting. © The Society of Gastroenterology Nurses & Associates 2007. All Rights Reserved.

Estrogen receptor α regulates area-adjusted bone mineral content in late pubertal girls

Context: Whether the action of estrogen in skeletal development depends on estrogen receptor α as encoded by the ESR1 gene is unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish whether the gain in area-adjusted bone mineral content (ABMC) in girls occurs in late puberty and to examine whether the magnitude of this gain is related to ESR1 polymorphisms. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis. Setting: The study involved the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a population-based prospective study. Participants: Participants included 3097 11-yr-olds with DNA samples, dual x-ray absorptiometry measurements, and pubertal stage information. Outcomes: Outcome measures included separate prespecified analyses in boys and girls of the relationship between ABMC derived from total body dual x-ray absorptiometry scans and Tanner stage and of the interaction between ABMC, Tanner stage, and ESR1 polymorphisms. Results: Total body less head and spinal ABMC were higher in girls in Tanner stages 4 and 5, compared with those in Tanner stages 1, 2, and 3. In contrast, height increased throughout puberty. No differences were observed in ABMC according to Tanner stage in boys. For rs2234693 (PvuII) and rs9340799 (XbaI) polymorphisms, differences in spinal ABMC in late puberty were 2-fold greater in girls who were homozygous for the C and G alleles, respectively (P = 0.001). For rs7757956, the difference in total body less head ABMC in late puberty was 50% less in individuals homozygous or heterozygous for the A allele (P = 0.006). Conclusions: Gains in ABMC in late pubertal girls are strongly associated with ESR1 polymorphisms, suggesting that estrogen contributes to this process via an estrogen receptor α-dependent pathway.

Effect of an estrogen receptor-α intron 4 polymorphism on fat mass in 11-year-old children

Context: in the ESR1 gene encoding estrogen receptor (ER)-α may be associated with fat mass in adults. Objectives: The objective of the study was to establish whether ESR1 polymorphisms influence fat mass in childhood. Design: This was a cross-sectional analysis after genotyping of rs9340799, rs2234693, and rs7757956 ESR1 polymorphisms. Setting: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) was a population-based prospective study. Participants: Participants included 3097 11-yr-old children with results for ESR1 genotyping, puberty measures, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry results. Outcomes: Relationships between ESR1 polymorphisms and indices of body composition were measured. Results: The rs7757956 polymorphism was associated with fat mass (P = 0.002). Total body fat mass (adjusted for height) was reduced by 6% in children with TA/AA genotypes, and risk of being overweight (≥85th centile of fat mass) was decreased by 20%. This genetic effect appeared to interact with puberty in girls (P = 0.05 for interaction): in those with the TT genotype, total body fat mass (adjusted for height) was 18% higher in Tanner stages 3-5 vs. stages 1-2; the equivalent difference was 7% in those with TA/AA genotypes. Furthermore, the risk of being overweight was 36% lower in girls with TA/AA genotypes in Tanner stages 3-5, but no reduction was seen in those in stages 1-2. Neither rs9340799 nor rs2234693 polymorphisms were associated with body composition measures. Conclusions: Fat mass in 11-yr-old children was related to the rs7757956 ESR1 polymorphism. This association was strongest in girls in more advanced puberty, in whom the risk of being overweight was reduced by 36% in those with the TA/AA genotype.

An experimental study on anisotropic mechanical properties of porcine thoracic aorta

Objective: To study the anisotropic mechanical properties of the thoracic aorta in porcine. Methods: Twenty-one porcine thoracic aortas were collected and categorized into three groups. The aortas were then cut through in their axial directions and expanded into two-dimensional planes. Then, by setting the length direction of the planar aortas (i.e., axial directions of the aortas) as 0°, each planar aorta was counterclockwisely cut into 8 samples with orientation of 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, 120°, 135°, 150° and 180°, respectively. Finally, the uniaxial tensile tests were applied on three groups of samples at the loading rates of 1, 5 and 10 mm/min, respectively, to obtain the elastic modulus and ultimate stress of the aorta in different directions and at different loading rates. Results: The stress-strain curves exhibited different viscoelastic behaviors. With the increase of sample orientations, the elastic modulus gradually increased from 30°, reached the maximum value at 90°, and then gradually decreased till 180°. The variation trend of ultimate stress was similar to that of elastic modulus. Moreover, different loading rates showed a significant influence on the results of elastic modulus and ultimate stress, but a weak influence on the anisotropic degree. Conclusions: The porcine thoracic aorta is highly anisotropic. This research finding provides parameter references for assignment of material properties in finite element modeling, and is significant for understanding biomechanical properties of the arteries.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Hip power analysis in individuals with transfemoral amputation: A different strategy different from stabilisation during gait stance

Introduction and Objectives Joint moments and joint powers during gait are widely used to determine the effects of rehabilitation programs as well as prosthetic fitting. Following the definition of power (dot product of joint moment and joint angular velocity) it has been previously proposed to analyse the 3D angle between both vectors, αMw. Basically, joint power is maximised when both vectors are parallel and cancelled when both vectors are orthogonal. In other words, αMw < 60° reveals a propulsion configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to positive power) while αMw > 120° reveals a resistance configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to negative power). A stabilisation configuration (less than 50% of the moment contribute to power) corresponds to 60° < αMw < 120°. Previous studies demonstrated that hip joints of able-bodied adults (AB) are mainly in a stabilisation configuration (αMw about 90°) during the stance phase of gait. [1, 2] Individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA) need to maximise joint power at the hip while controlling the prosthetic knee during stance. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that TFAs should adopt a strategy that is different from a continuous stabilisation. The objective of this study was to compute joint power and αMw for TFA and to compare them with AB. Methods Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 8 TFAs (7 males and 1 female, 46±10 years old, 1.78±0.08 m 82±13 kg) and 8 ABs (males, 25±3 years old, 1.75±0.04, m 67±6 kg). The joint moments are computed from a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee for TFAs and from a motion analysis system (Motion Analysis, Santa Rosa, USA) and force plates (Bertec, Columbus, USA) for ABs. The TFAs were fitted with an OPRA (Integrum, AB, Gothengurg, Sweden) osseointegrated implant system and their prosthetic designs include pneumatic, hydraulic and microprocessor knees. Previous studies showed that the inverse dynamics computed from the multi-axial transducer is the proper method considering the absorption at the foot and resistance at the knee. Results The peak of positive power at loading response (H1) was earlier and lower for TFA compared to AB. Although the joint power is lower, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals an obvious propulsion configuration (mean αMw about 20°) for TFA compared to a stabilisation configuration (mean αMw about 70°) for AB. The peaks of negative power at midstance (H2) and of positive power at preswing / initial swing (H3) occurred later, lower and longer for TFA compared to AB. Again, the joint powers are lower for TFA but, in this case, αMw is almost comparable (with a time lag), demonstrating a stabilisation (almost a resistance for TFA, mean αMw about 120°) and a propulsion configuration, respectively. The swing phase is not analysed in the present study. Conclusion The analysis of hip joint power may indicate that TFAs demonstrated less propulsion and resistance than ABs during the stance phase of gait. This is true from a quantitative point of view. On the contrary, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals that TFAs have a remarkable propulsion strategy at loading response and almost a resistance strategy at midstance while ABs adopted a stabilisation strategy. The propulsion configuration, with αMw close to 0°, seems to aim at maximising the positive joint power. The configuration close to resistance, with αMw far from 180°, might aim at unlocking the prosthetic knee before swing while minimising the negative power. This analysis of both joint power and 3D angle between the joint moment and the joint angular velocity provides complementary insights into the gait strategies of TFA that can be used to support evidence-based rehabilitation and fitting of prosthetic components.

Functional evaluation of genetic variants associated with endometriosis near GREB1

STUDY QUESTION: Do DNA variants in the growth regulation by estrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1) region regulate endometrial GREB1 expression and increase the risk of developing endometriosis in women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong association with endometriosis at the GREB1 locus although we did not detect altered GREB1 expression in endometriosis patients with defined genotypes. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Genome-wide association studies have identified the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 for increasing endometriosis risk. The differential expression of GREB1 has also been reported by others in association with endometriosis disease phenotype. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Fine mapping studies comprehensively evaluated SNPs within the GREB1 region in a large-scale data set (>2500 cases and >4000 controls). Publicly available bioinformatics tools were employed to functionally annotate SNPs showing the strongest association signal with endometriosis risk. Endometrial GREB1 mRNA and protein expression was studied with respect to phases of the menstrual cycle (n = 2-45 per cycle stage) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis for significant SNPs were undertaken for GREB1 [mRNA (n = 94) and protein (n = 44) in endometrium]. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants in this study are females who provided blood and/or endometrial tissue samples in a hospital setting. The key SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom MassARRAY. The functional roles and regulatory annotations for identified SNPs are predicted by various publicly available bioinformatics tools. Endometrial GREB1 expression work employed qRT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry studies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Fine mapping results identified a number of SNPs showing stronger association (0.004 < P < 0.032) with endometriosis risk than the original GWAS SNP (rs13394619) (P = 0.034). Some of these SNPs were predicted to have functional roles, for example, interaction with transcription factor motifs. The haplotype (a combination of alleles) formed by the risk alleles from two common SNPs showed significant association (P = 0.026) with endometriosis and epistasis analysis showed no evidence for interaction between the two SNPs, suggesting an additive effect of SNPs on endometriosis risk. In normal human endometrium, GREB1 protein expression was altered depending on the cycle stage (significantly different in late proliferative versus late secretory, P < 0.05) and cell type (glandular epithelium, not stromal cells). However, GREB1 expression in endometriosis cases versus controls and eQTL analyses did not reveal any significant changes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In silico prediction tools are generally based on cell lines different to our tissue and disease of interest. Functional annotations drawn from these analyses should be considered with this limitation in mind. We identified cell-specific and hormone-specific changes in GREB1 protein expression. The lack of a significant difference observed following our GREB1 expression studies may be the result of moderate power on mixed cell populations in the endometrial tissue samples. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study further implicates the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 and the GREB1 gene with involvement in endometriosis risk. More detailed functional studies are required to determine the role of the novel GREB1 transcripts in endometriosis pathophysiology. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for this work was provided by NHMRC Project Grants APP1012245, APP1026033, APP1049472 and APP1046880. There are no competing interests.