Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

A retrofitting framework for pre-Northridge steel moment-frame buildings

In the 1994 M_w 6.7 Northridge and 1995 M_w 6.9 Kobe earthquakes, steel moment-frame buildings were exposed to an unexpected flaw. The commonly utilized welded unreinforced flange, bolted web connections were observed to experience brittle fractures in a number of buildings, even at low levels of seismic demand. A majority of these buildings have not been retrofitted and may be susceptible to structural collapse in a major earthquake.

This dissertation presents a case study of retrofitting a 20-story pre-Northridge steel moment-frame building. Twelve retrofit schemes are developed that present some range in degree of intervention. Three retrofitting techniques are considered: upgrading the brittle beam-to-column moment resisting connections, and implementing either conventional or buckling-restrained brace elements within the existing moment-frame bays. The retrofit schemes include some that are designed to the basic safety objective of ASCE-41 Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings.

Detailed finite element models of the base line building and the retrofit schemes are constructed. The models include considerations of brittle beam-to-column moment resisting connection fractures, column splice fractures, column baseplate fractures, accidental contributions from ``simple'' non-moment resisting beam-to-column connections to the lateral force-resisting system, and composite actions of beams with the overlying floor system. In addition, foundation interaction is included through nonlinear translational springs underneath basement columns.

To investigate the effectiveness of the retrofit schemes, the building models are analyzed under ground motions from three large magnitude simulated earthquakes that cause intense shaking in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area, and under recorded ground motions from actual earthquakes. It is found that retrofit schemes that convert the existing moment-frames into braced-frames by implementing either conventional or buckling-restrained braces are effective in limiting structural damage and mitigating structural collapse. In the three simulated earthquakes, a 20% chance of simulated collapse is realized at PGV of around 0.6 m/s for the base line model, but at PGV of around 1.8 m/s for some of the retrofit schemes. However, conventional braces are observed to deteriorate rapidly. Hence, if a braced-frame that employs conventional braces survives a large earthquake, it is questionable how much service the braces provide in potential aftershocks.

Mössbauer effect investigations of the hyperfine interactions and relaxation phenomena in salts of thulium

Two new phenomena have been observed in Mössbauer spectra: a temperature-dependent shift of the center of gravity of the spectrum, and an asymmetric broadening of the spectrum peaks. Both phenomena were observed in thulium salts. In the temperature range 1˚K ≤ T ≤ 5˚K the observed shift has an approximate inverse temperature dependence. We explain this on the basis of a Van Vleck type of interaction between the magnetic moment of two nearly degenerate electronic levels and the magnetic moment of the nucleus. From the size of the shift we are able to deduce an “effective magnetic field” H = (6.0 ± 0.1) x 10⁶ Gauss, which is proportional to ‹r^-3›_M‹G|J|E› where ‹r^-3›_M is an effective magnetic radial integral for the 4f electrons and |G› and |E› are the lowest 4f electronic states in Tm Cl₃·6H₂O. From the temperature dependence of the shift we have derived a preliminary value of 1 cm^-1 for the splitting of these two states. The observed asymmetric line broadening is independent of temperature in the range 1˚K ≤ T ≤ 5˚K, but is dependent on the concentration of thulium ions in the crystal. We explain this broadening on the basis of spin-spin interactions between thulium ions. From size and concentration dependence of the broadening we are able to deduce a spin-spin relaxation time for Tm Cl₃·6H₂O of the order of 10^-11 sec.

A kinetic theory description for external spherical flows with arbitrary Knudsen number by a moment method

The Maxwell integral equations of transfer are applied to a series of problems involving flows of arbitrary density gases about spheres. As suggested by Lees a two sided Maxwellian-like weighting function containing a number of free parameters is utilized and a sufficient number of partial differential moment equations is used to determine these parameters. Maxwell's inverse fifth-power force law is used to simplify the evaluation of the collision integrals appearing in the moment equations. All flow quantities are then determined by integration of the weighting function which results from the solution of the differential moment system. Three problems are treated: the heat-flux from a slightly heated sphere at rest in an infinite gas; the velocity field and drag of a slowly moving sphere in an unbounded space; the velocity field and drag torque on a slowly rotating sphere. Solutions to the third problem are found to both first and second-order in surface Mach number with the secondary centrifugal fan motion being of particular interest. Singular aspects of the moment method are encountered in the last two problems and an asymptotic study of these difficulties leads to a formal criterion for a "well posed" moment system. The previously unanswered question of just how many moments must be used in a specific problem is now clarified to a great extent.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Faint Galaxies in the Megaparsec-Scale Environments of Hyperluminous QSOs at Redshifts 2 < z < 3

This thesis presents detailed observational studies of the extended distributions of gas, galaxies, and dark matter around hyperluminous quasars (HLQSOs) at high redshift. Taken together, these works aim to coherently describe the relationships between these massive, accreting black holes and their environments: the nature of the regions that give rise to such massive black holes, the effect of HLQSO radiation on their surrounding galaxies and gas, and the ability of both galaxies and black holes to shed new light on the formation and evolution of the other.

Chapter 2 focuses on the continuum-color-selected galaxies drawn from the Keck Baryonic Structure Survey (KBSS). The KBSS is a uniquely deep spectroscopic survey of star-forming galaxies in the same volumes of space as 15 HLQSOs at 2.5 < z < 2.9. The three-dimensional distribution of these galaxies among themselves and the nearby HLQSOs is used to infer the extent to which these black holes are associated with overdense peaks in the dark matter and galaxy distribution as quantified by clustering statistics. In conjunction with recent dark-matter simulations, these data provide the first estimates of the host dark-matter halo masses for HLQSOs, providing new insight into the formation and evolution of the most massive black holes at high redshift.

Chapter 3 describes the first results from a new survey (KBSS-Lyα) conducted for this thesis. The KBSS-Lyα survey uses narrowband imaging to identify Lyα-emitters (LAEs) in the ~Mpc regions around eight of the KBSS HLQSOs. Many of these LAEs show the effect of reprocessed HLQSO radiation in their emission through the process known as Lyα fluorescence. In this chapter, these fluorescent LAEs are used to generate a coarse map of the average HLQSO ionizing emission on Mpc scales, thereby setting the first direct constraints of the lifetime and angular distribution of activity for a population of these uniquely luminous black holes.

Chapter 4 contains a more detailed description of the KBSS-Lyα survey itself and the detailed properties of the star-forming and fluorescent objects selected therein. Using imaging and spectroscopic data covering rest-frame UV and optical wavelengths, including spectra from the new near-infrared spectrometer MOSFIRE, we characterize this population of nascent galaxies in terms of their kinematics, enrichment, gas properties, and luminosity distribution while comparing and contrasting them with previously-studied populations of continuum-selected galaxies and LAEs far from the effects of HLQSO emission.

At the conclusion of this thesis, I briefly present future directions for the continuation of this research. In Appendix A, I provide background information on the instrumentation used in this thesis, including my own contributions to MOSFIRE.

Neural routing circuits for forming invariant representations of visual objects

This thesis presents a biologically plausible model of an attentional mechanism for forming position- and scale-invariant representations of objects in the visual world. The model relies on a set of control neurons to dynamically modify the synaptic strengths of intra-cortical connections so that information from a windowed region of primary visual cortex (Vl) is selectively routed to higher cortical areas. Local spatial relationships (i.e., topography) within the attentional window are preserved as information is routed through the cortex, thus enabling attended objects to be represented in higher cortical areas within an object-centered reference frame that is position and scale invariant. The representation in V1 is modeled as a multiscale stack of sample nodes with progressively lower resolution at higher eccentricities. Large changes in the size of the attentional window are accomplished by switching between different levels of the multiscale stack, while positional shifts and small changes in scale are accomplished by translating and rescaling the window within a single level of the stack. The control signals for setting the position and size of the attentional window are hypothesized to originate from neurons in the pulvinar and in the deep layers of visual cortex. The dynamics of these control neurons are governed by simple differential equations that can be realized by neurobiologically plausible circuits. In pre-attentive mode, the control neurons receive their input from a low-level "saliency map" representing potentially interesting regions of a scene. During the pattern recognition phase, control neurons are driven by the interaction between top-down (memory) and bottom-up (retinal input) sources. The model respects key neurophysiological, neuroanatomical, and psychophysical data relating to attention, and it makes a variety of experimentally testable predictions.

Trapped ion magnetic resonance: concepts and designs

A novel spectroscopy of trapped ions is proposed which will bring single-ion detection sensitivity to the observation of magnetic resonance spectra. The approaches developed here are aimed at resolving one of the fundamental problems of molecular spectroscopy, the apparent incompatibility in existing techniques between high information content (and therefore good species discrimination) and high sensitivity. Methods for studying both electron spin resonance (ESR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) are designed. They assume established methods for trapping ions in high magnetic field and observing the trapping frequencies with high resolution (<1 Hz) and sensitivity (single ion) by electrical means. The introduction of a magnetic bottle field gradient couples the spin and spatial motions together and leads to a small spin-dependent force on the ion, which has been exploited by Dehmelt to observe directly the perturbation of the ground-state electron's axial frequency by its spin magnetic moment.

A series of fundamental innovations is described m order to extend magnetic resonance to the higher masses of molecular ions (100 amu = 2x 10^5 electron masses) and smaller magnetic moments (nuclear moments = 10^(-3) of the electron moment). First, it is demonstrated how time-domain trapping frequency observations before and after magnetic resonance can be used to make cooling of the particle to its ground state unnecessary. Second, adiabatic cycling of the magnetic bottle off between detection periods is shown to be practical and to allow high-resolution magnetic resonance to be encoded pointwise as the presence or absence of trapping frequency shifts. Third, methods of inducing spindependent work on the ion orbits with magnetic field gradients and Larmor frequency irradiation are proposed which greatly amplify the attainable shifts in trapping frequency.

The dissertation explores the basic concepts behind ion trapping, adopting a variety of classical, semiclassical, numerical, and quantum mechanical approaches to derive spin-dependent effects, design experimental sequences, and corroborate results from one approach with those from another. The first proposal presented builds on Dehmelt's experiment by combining a "before and after" detection sequence with novel signal processing to reveal ESR spectra. A more powerful technique for ESR is then designed which uses axially synchronized spin transitions to perform spin-dependent work in the presence of a magnetic bottle, which also converts axial amplitude changes into cyclotron frequency shifts. A third use of the magnetic bottle is to selectively trap ions with small initial kinetic energy. A dechirping algorithm corrects for undesired frequency shifts associated with damping by the measurement process.

The most general approach presented is spin-locked internally resonant ion cyclotron excitation, a true continuous Stern-Gerlach effect. A magnetic field gradient modulated at both the Larmor and cyclotron frequencies is devised which leads to cyclotron acceleration proportional to the transverse magnetic moment of a coherent state of the particle and radiation field. A preferred method of using this to observe NMR as an axial frequency shift is described in detail. In the course of this derivation, a new quantum mechanical description of ion cyclotron resonance is presented which is easily combined with spin degrees of freedom to provide a full description of the proposals.

Practical, technical, and experimental issues surrounding the feasibility of the proposals are addressed throughout the dissertation. Numerical ion trajectory simulations and analytical models are used to predict the effectiveness of the new designs as well as their sensitivity and resolution. These checks on the methods proposed provide convincing evidence of their promise in extending the wealth of magnetic resonance information to the study of collisionless ions via single-ion spectroscopy.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Magnetic field and pressure effects in a saturated gas laser amplifier

Theoretical and experimental studies of a gas laser amplifier are presented, assuming the amplifier is operating with a saturating optical frequency signal. The analysis is primarily concerned with the effects of the gas pressure and the presence of an axial magnetic field on the characteristics of the amplifying medium. Semiclassical radiation theory is used, along with a density matrix description of the atomic medium which relates the motion of single atoms to the macroscopic observables. A two-level description of the atom, using phenomenological source rates and decay rates, forms the basis of our analysis of the gas laser medium. Pressure effects are taken into account to a large extent through suitable choices of decay rate parameters.

Two methods for calculating the induced polarization of the atomic medium are used. The first method utilizes a perturbation expansion which is valid for signal intensities which barely reach saturation strength, and it is quite general in applicability. The second method is valid for arbitrarily strong signals, but it yields tractable solutions only for zero magnetic field or for axial magnetic fields large enough such that the Zeeman splitting is much larger than the power broadened homogeneous linewidth of the laser transition. The effects of pressure broadening of the homogeneous spectral linewidth are included in both the weak-signal and strong-signal theories; however the effects of Zeeman sublevel-mixing collisions are taken into account only in the weak-signal theory.

The behavior of a He-Ne gas laser amplifier in the presence of an axial magnetic field has been studied experimentally by measuring gain and Faraday rotation of linearly polarized resonant laser signals for various values of input signal intensity, and by measuring nonlinearity - induced anisotropy for elliptically polarized resonant laser signals of various input intensities. Two high-gain transitions in the 3.39-μ region were used for study: a J = 1 to J = 2 (3s₂ → 3p₄) transition and a J = 1 to J = 1 (3s₂ → 3p₂) transition. The input signals were tuned to the centers of their respective resonant gain lines.

The experimental results agree quite well with corresponding theoretical expressions which have been developed to include the nonlinear effects of saturation strength signals. The experimental results clearly show saturation of Faraday rotation, and for the J = 1 t o J = 1 transition a Faraday rotation reversal and a traveling wave gain dip are seen for small values of axial magnetic field. The nonlinearity induced anisotropy shows a marked dependence on the gas pressure in the amplifier tube for the J = 1 to J = 2 transition; this dependence agrees with the predictions of the general perturbational or weak signal theory when allowances are made for the effects of Zeeman sublevel-mixing collisions. The results provide a method for measuring the upper (neon 3s₂) level quadrupole moment decay rate, the dipole moment decay rates for the 3s₂ → 3p₄ and 3s₂ → 3p₂ transitions, and the effects of various types of collision processes on these decay rates.

Observation and interpretation of tectonic strain release mechanisms

In four chapters various aspects of earthquake source are studied.

Chapter I

Surface displacements that followed the Parkfield, 1966, earthquakes were measured for two years with six small-scale geodetic networks straddling the fault trace. The logarithmic rate and the periodic nature of the creep displacement recorded on a strain meter made it possible to predict creep episodes on the San Andreas fault. Some individual earthquakes were related directly to surface displacement, while in general, slow creep and aftershock activity were found to occur independently. The Parkfield earthquake is interpreted as a buried dislocation.

Chapter II

The source parameters of earthquakes between magnitude 1 and 6 were studied using field observations, fault plane solutions, and surface wave and S-wave spectral analysis. The seismic moment, M_O, was found to be related to local magnitude, M_L, by log M_O = 1.7 M_L + 15.1. The source length vs magnitude relation for the San Andreas system found to be: M_L = 1.9 log L - 6.7. The surface wave envelope parameter AR gives the moment according to log M_O = log AR₃₀₀ + 30.1, and the stress drop, τ, was found to be related to the magnitude by τ = 0.54 M - 2.58. The relation between surface wave magnitude M_S and M_L is proposed to be M_S = 1.7 M_L - 4.1. It is proposed to estimate the relative stress level (and possibly the strength) of a source-region by the amplitude ratio of high-frequency to low-frequency waves. An apparent stress map for Southern California is presented.

Chapter III

Seismic triggering and seismic shaking are proposed as two closely related mechanisms of strain release which explain observations of the character of the P wave generated by the Alaskan earthquake of 1964, and distant fault slippage observed after the Borrego Mountain, California earthquake of 1968. The Alaska, 1964, earthquake is shown to be adequately described as a series of individual rupture events. The first of these events had a body wave magnitude of 6.6 and is considered to have initiated or triggered the whole sequence. The propagation velocity of the disturbance is estimated to be 3.5 km/sec. On the basis of circumstantial evidence it is proposed that the Borrego Mountain, 1968, earthquake caused release of tectonic strain along three active faults at distances of 45 to 75 km from the epicenter. It is suggested that this mechanism of strain release is best described as "seismic shaking."

Chapter IV

The changes of apparent stress with depth are studied in the South American deep seismic zone. For shallow earthquakes the apparent stress is 20 bars on the average, the same as for earthquakes in the Aleutians and on Oceanic Ridges. At depths between 50 and 150 km the apparent stresses are relatively high, approximately 380 bars, and around 600 km depth they are again near 20 bars. The seismic efficiency is estimated to be 0.1. This suggests that the true stress is obtained by multiplying the apparent stress by ten. The variation of apparent stress with depth is explained in terms of the hypothesis of ocean floor consumption.