Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

Re-thinking how we plan to address technically complex problems : drawing on planning theory to guide practice in revision of land use plans in coastal high hazard zones

Queensland's new State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection, released in March and approved in April 2011 as part of the Queensland Coastal Plan, stipulates that local governments prepare and implement adaptation strategies for built up areas projected to be subject to coastal hazards between present day and 2100. Urban localities within the delineated coastal high hazard zone (as determined by models incorporating a 0.8 meter rise in sea level and a 10% increase in the maximum cyclone activity) will be required to re-evaluate their plans to accommodate growth, revising land use plans to minimise impacts of anticipated erosion and flooding on developed areas and infrastructure. While implementation of such strategies would aid in avoidance or minimisation of risk exposure, communities are likely to face significant challenges in such implementation, especially as development in Queensland is so intensely focussed upon its coasts with these new policies directing development away from highly desirable waterfront land. This paper examines models of planning theory to understand how we plan when faced with technically complex problems towards formulation of a framework for evaluating and improving practice.

An actor-network research frame for analysing complex socio-technical situations

This paper presents a “research frame” which we have found useful in analyzing complex socio- technical situations. The research frame is based on aspects of actor-network theory: “interressment”, “enrollment”, “points of passage” and the “trial of strength”. Each of these aspects are described in turn, making clear their purpose in the overall research frame. Having established the research frame it is used to analyse two examples. First, the use of speech recognition technology is examined in two different contexts, showing how to apply the frame to compare and contrast current situations. Next, a current medical consultation context is described and the research frame is used to consider how it could change with innovative technology. In both examples, the research frame shows that the use of an artefact or technology must be considered together with the context in which it is used.

Ageing and use of complex product interfaces

This paper presents an experiment designed to investigate if redundancy in an interface has any impact on the use of complex interfaces by older people and people with low prior-experience with technology. The important findings of this study were that older people (65+ years) completed the tasks on the Words only based interface faster than on Redundant (text and symbols) interface. The rest of the participants completed tasks significantly faster on the Redundant interface. From a cognitive processing perspective, sustained attention (one of the functions of Central Executive) has emerged as one of the important factors in completing tasks on complex interfaces faster and with fewer of errors.

Systematics of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex of smut fungi

Smut fungi are important pathogens of grasses, including the cultivated crops maize, sorghum and sugarcane. Typically, smut fungi infect the inflorescence of their host plants. Three genera of smut fungi (Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces) form a complex with overlapping morphological characters, making species placement problematic. For example, the newly described Macalpinomyces mackinlayi possesses a combination of morphological characters such that it cannot be unambiguously accommodated in any of the three genera. Previous attempts to define Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces using morphology and molecular phylogenetics have highlighted the polyphyletic nature of the genera, but have failed to produce a satisfactory taxonomic resolution. A detailed systematic study of 137 smut species in the Ustilago-Sporisorium- Macalpinomyces complex was completed in the current work. Morphological and DNA sequence data from five loci were assessed with maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to reconstruct a phylogeny of the complex. The phylogenetic hypotheses generated were used to identify morphological synapomorphies, some of which had previously been dismissed as a useful way to delimit the complex. These synapomorphic characters are the basis for a revised taxonomic classification of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex, which takes into account their morphological diversity and coevolution with their grass hosts. The new classification is based on a redescription of the type genus Sporisorium, and the establishment of four genera, described from newly recognised monophyletic groups, to accommodate species expelled from Sporisorium. Over 150 taxonomic combinations have been proposed as an outcome of this investigation, which makes a rigorous and objective contribution to the fungal systematics of these important plant pathogens.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Influence of physical and chemical properties of solids on heavy metal adsorption

Partition of heavy metals between particulate and dissolve fraction of stormwater primarily depends on the adsorption characteristics of solids particles. Moreover, the bioavailability of heavy metals is also influenced by the adsorption behaviour of solids. However, due to the lack of fundamental knowledge in relation to the heavy metals adsorption processes of road deposited solids, the effectiveness of stormwater management strategies can be limited. The research study focused on the investigation of the physical and chemical parameters of solids on urban road surfaces and, more specifically, on heavy metal adsorption to solids. Due to the complex nature of heavy metal interaction with solids, a substantial database was generated through a series of field investigations and laboratory experiments. The study sites for the build-up pollutant sample collection were selected from four urbanised suburbs located in a major river catchment. Sixteen road sites were selected from these suburbs and represented typical industrial, commercial and residential land uses. Build-up pollutants were collected using a wet and dry vacuum collection technique which was specially designed to improve fine particle collection. Roadside soil samples were also collected from each suburb for comparison with the road surface solids. The collected build-up solids samples were separated into four particle size ranges and tested for a range of physical and chemical parameters. The solids build-up on road surfaces contained a high fraction (70%) of particles smaller than 150ìm, which are favourable for heavy metal adsorption. These solids particles predominantly consist of soil derived minerals which included quartz, albite, microcline, muscovite and chlorite. Additionally, a high percentage of amorphous content was also identified in road deposited solids. In comparing the mineralogical data of surrounding soil and road deposited solids, it was found that about 30% of the solids consisted of particles generated from traffic related activities on road surfaces. Significant difference in mineralogical composition was noted in different particle sizes of build-up solids. Fine solids particles (<150ìm) consisted of a clayey matrix and high amorphous content (in the region of 40%) while coarse particles (>150ìm) consisted of a sandy matrix at all study sites, with about 60% quartz content. Due to these differences in mineralogical components, particles larger than and smaller than 150ìm had significant differences in their specific surface area (SSA) and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC). These parameters, in turn, exert a significant influence on heavy metal adsorption. Consequently, heavy metal content in >150ìm particles was lower than in the case of fine particles. The particle size range <75ìm had the highest heavy metal content, corresponding with its high clay forming minerals, high organic matter and low quartz content which increased the SSA, ECEC and the presence of Fe, Al and Mn oxides. The clay forming minerals, high organic matter and Fe, Al and Mn oxides create distinct groups of charge sites on solids surfaces and exhibit different adsorption mechanisms and bond strength, between heavy metal elements and charge sites. Therefore, the predominance of these factors in different particle sizes leads to different heavy metal adsorption characteristics. Heavy metals show preference for association with clay forming minerals in fine solids particles, whilst in coarse particles heavy metals preferentially associate with organic matter. Although heavy metal adsorption to amorphous material is very low, the heavy metals embedded in traffic related materials have a potential impact on stormwater quality.Adsorption of heavy metals is not confined to an individual type of charge site in solids, whereas specific heavy metal elements show preference for adsorption to several different types of charge sites in solids. This is attributed to the dearth of preferred binding sites and the inability to reach the preferred binding sites due to competition between different heavy metal species. This confirms that heavy metal adsorption is significantly influenced by the physical and chemical parameters of solids that lead to a heterogeneity of surface charge sites. The research study highlighted the importance of removal of solids particles from stormwater runoff before they enter into receiving waters to reduce the potential risk posed by the bioavailability of heavy metals. The bioavailability of heavy metals not only results from the easily mobile fraction bound to the solids particles, but can also occur as a result of the dissolution of other forms of bonds by chemical changes in stormwater or microbial activity. Due to the diversity in the composition of the different particle sizes of solids and the characteristics and amount of charge sites on the particle surfaces, investigations using bulk solids are not adequate to gain an understanding of the heavy metal adsorption processes of solids particles. Therefore, the investigation of different particle size ranges is recommended for enhancing stormwater quality management practices.

Complex modelling in the primary/middle school years

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual (Katehi, Pearson, & Feder, 2009). With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to significant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientific thinking that are required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden children’s mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This paper first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Next, consideration is given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling. Examples of complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities across grades are presented, with data modelling in 1st grade, model-eliciting in 4th grade, and engineering-based modelling in 7th-9th grades.

Complex learning through cognitively demanding tasks

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by “continuing education as usual” (The National Academies, 2009). With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualization. These technologies have led to significant changes in the forms of mathematical thinking that are required beyond the classroom. This paper argues for the need to incorporate future-oriented understandings and competencies within the mathematics curriculum, through intellectually stimulating activities that draw upon multidisciplinary content and contexts. The paper also argues for greater recognition of children’s learning potential, as increasingly complex learners capable of dealing with cognitively demanding tasks.

Mathematics and complex learning

There is unprecedented worldwide demand for mathematical solutions to complex problems. That demand has generated a further call to update mathematics education in a way that develops students’ abilities to deal with complex systems.

Navigating a complex organizational landscape : leadership challenges and practices

This paper discusses exploratory research to identify the reported leadership challenges faced by leaders in the public sector in Australia and what specific leadership practices they engage in to deal with these challenges. Emerging is a sense that leadership in these complex work environments is not about controlling or mandating action but about engaging in conversation, building relationships and empowering staff to engage in innovative ways to solve complex problems. In addition leaders provide a strong sense of purpose and identity to guide behaviour and decisions to overcome being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of demands in a unpredictable and often unsupportive environment. Questions are raised as to the core competencies leaders need to develop to drive and underpin these leadership practices and the implications this has for the focus on future leadership development programmes. The possible direction of a future research programme will be put forward for further discussion.

Generation workshop 2010

The Generation Workshop Program 2010, a part of the Queensland Government Unlimited: Designing for the Asia Pacific Event Program, consisted of two one-day intensive design thinking workshops run on October 7-8, 2011 at The Edge, State Library of Queensland, for 100 senior secondary students and 20 secondary teachers self-selected from the subject areas of Visual Art, Graphics and Industrial Technology and Design. Participants were drawn from a database of Brisbane and regional Queensland private and public schools from the goDesign and Living City Workshop Programs. The workshop aimed to facilitate awareness in young people of the role of design in society and the value of design thinking skills in solving complex problems facing the Asia Pacific Region, and to inspire the generation of strategies for our future cities. It also aimed to encourage the collaboration of professional designers with secondary schools to inspire post-secondary pathways and idea generation for education. Inspired by international and national speakers Bunker Roy (Barefoot College) and Hael Kobayashi (Associate Producer on "Happy Feet" film for Australia's Animal Logic), the Unlimited showcase exhibition Make Change: Design Thinking in Action and ‘Idea Starters’/teaching resources provided, students worked with a teacher in ten random teams, to generate optimistic strategies for the Ideal City of tomorrow, each considering a theme – Food, Water, Transport, Ageing, Growth, Employment, Shelter, Health, Education and Energy. Each team of 6 was led by a professional designer (from the discipline of architecture, interior design, industrial design, urban design, graphic design or landscape architecture) who was a catalyst for driving the student creative thinking process. Assisted by illustrators, the teams prepared a visual presentation of their idea from art materials provided. The workshop culminated in a video-taped interactive design chatter to the larger group, which will be utilised as a toolkit and praxis for teachers as part of the State Library of Queensland Design Minds Project. Photos of student design work were published on the Unlimited website.

Charting the system : the integrated master schedule as a multi-level and poly-temporal boundary object in complex projects

This paper investigates the use of visual artifacts to represent a complex adaptive system (CAS). The integrated master schedule (IMS) is one of those visuals widely used in complex projects for scheduling, budgeting, and project management. In this paper, we discuss how the IMS outperforms the traditional timelines and acts as a ‘multi-level and poly-temporal boundary object’ that visually represents the CAS. We report the findings of a case study project on the way the IMS mapped interactions, interdependencies, constraints and fractal patterns in a complex project. Finally, we discuss how the IMS was utilised as a complex boundary object by eliciting commitment and development of shared mental models, and facilitating negotiation through the layers of multiple interpretations from stakeholders.