Poverty and non-communicable diseases in South Africa

Background: High levels of wealth inequality with improved health statistics in South Africa (SA) provide an important opportunity to investigate non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among the poor. Aims: This paper uses two distinct national data sets to contrast patterns of mortality in rich and poor areas and explore the associations between poverty, risk factors, health care and selected NCDs diseases in South African adults. Methods: Causes of premature mortality in 1996 experienced in the poorest magisterial districts are compared with those in the richest, using average household wealth to classify districts. Logistic and multinomial regression are used to investigate the association of a household asset index and selected chronic conditions, related risk factors and healthcare indicators using data from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey. Results: NCDs accounted for 39% and 33% of premature mortality in rich and poor districts respectively. The household survey data showed that the risk factors hypertension and obesity increased with increasing wealth, while most of the lifestyle factors, such as light smoking, domestic exposure to ``smoky'' fuels and alcohol dependence were associated with poverty. Treatment status for hypertension and asthma was worse for poor people than for rich people. Conclusions: The study suggests that NCDs and lifestyle-related risk factors are prevalent among the poor in SA and treatment for chronic diseases is lacking for poor people. The observed increase in hypertension and obesity with wealth suggests that unless comprehensive health promotion strategies are implemented, there will be an unmanageable chronic disease epidemic with future socioeconomic development in SA.

Demographics and discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees at a subacute rehabilitation unit: A 7-year series

Objective To examine personal and social demographics, and rehabilitation discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees. Methods In total, 425 lower limb amputation inpatient rehabilitation admissions (335 individuals) from 2005 to 2011 were examined. Admission and discharge descriptive statistics (frequency, percentages) were calculated and compared by aetiology. Results Participants were male (74%), aged 65 years (s.d. 14), born in Australia (72%), had predominantly dysvascular aetiology (80%) and a median length of stay 48 days (interquartile range (IQR): 25–76). Following amputation, 56% received prostheses for mobility, 21% (n = 89) changed residence and 28% (n = 116) required community services. Dysvascular amputees were older (mean 67 years, s.d. 12 vs 54 years, s.d. 16; P < 0.001) and recorded lower functional independence measure – motor scores at admission (z = 3.61, P < 0.001) and discharge (z = 4.52, P < 0.001). More nonvascular amputees worked before amputation (43% vs 11%; P < 0.001), were prescribed a prosthesis by discharge (73% vs 52%; P < 0.001) and had a shorter length of stay (7 days, 95% confidence interval: –3 to 17), although this was not statistically significant. Conclusions Differences exist in social and demographic outcomes between dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees.

Non-market use and non-use values for preserving ecosystem services over time : a choice experiment application to coral reef ecosystems in New Caledonia

Non-use values (i.e. economic values assigned by individuals to ecosystem goods and services unrelated to current or future uses) provide one of the most compelling incentives for the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Assessing the non-use values of non-users is relatively straightforward using stated preference methods, but the standard approaches for estimating non-use values of users (stated decomposition) have substantial shortcomings which undermine the robustness of their results. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic interpretation of non-use values to derive estimates that capture their main dimensions, based on the identification of a willingness to pay for ecosystem protection beyond one's expected life. We empirically test our approach using a choice experiment conducted on coral reef ecosystem protection in two coastal areas in New Caledonia with different institutional, cultural, environmental and socio-economic contexts. We compute individual willingness to pay estimates, and derive individual non-use value estimates using our interpretation. We find that, a minima, estimates of non-use values may comprise between 25 and 40% of the mean willingness to pay for ecosystem preservation, less than has been found in most studies.

Informing methods for preparing public health overviews of reviews: a comparison of public health overviews with Cochrane Overviews published between 1999 and 2014

Background: Overviews of systematic reviews (SRs) are useful for public health policy; however there is an absence of Cochrane Overviews covering public health (PH) topics. Objectives: We sought to analyze the methodological approaches used in existing Cochrane Overviews and Protocols for overviews (primarily clinical in nature), and compare these to the methods and approaches used in PH overviews (non-Cochrane). The intent was to identify issues that would be relevant for undertaking Cochrane overviews. Methods: We conducted a descriptive analysis of overviews published between 1999 and 2014. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for Cochrane Protocols for overviews and Cochrane Overviews, and the HealthEvidence.org for PH overviews. The primary characteristics of the overviews and elements of the methodology were extracted and compared. Results: A total of 61 overviews of SRs were included in our analysis; specifically, this included 21 Cochrane Protocols for overviews, 15 Cochrane Overviews, and 27 non-Cochrane PH overviews. Amongst the overviews, the most significant differences are that PH overviews (non-Cochrane) tend to: include earlier and more reviews, greater number of participants, allow lower levels of evidence, use assessment tools other than AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews, i.e. a tool for assessing quality of SRs), not assess quality of evidence in reviews, search more databases overall, specify search limits including English-only reviews, and not consider recent primary studies for inclusion. Some of these differences clearly related to quality, however many relate to the nuances of PH interventions. Conclusions: The methodology in Cochrane overviews and PH overviews varies widely. Future PH overviews may benefit from the Cochrane methodology but the Cochrane approach requires modification to accommodate PH research methodology. Additionally, the use of databases that pre-screen and quality assess relevant PH systematic reviews may help expedite the search process.

Modelling busway operation with mixed stopping and non-stopping buses

This thesis investigated the complexity of busway operation with stopping and non-stopping buses using field data and microscopic simulation modelling. The proposed approach made significant recommendations to transit authorities to achieve the most practicable system capacity for existing and new busways. The empirical equations developed in this research and newly introduced analysis methods will be ideal tools for transit planners to achieve optimal reliability of busways.

Novel non-linear elastic structural analysis with generalised transverse element loads using a refined finite element

In the finite element modelling of structural frames, external loads such as wind loads, dead loads and imposed loads usually act along the elements rather than at the nodes only. Conventionally, when an element is subjected to these general transverse element loads, they are usually converted to nodal forces acting at the ends of the elements by either lumping or consistent load approaches. In addition, it is especially important for an element subjected to the first- and second-order elastic behaviour, to which the steel structure is critically prone to; in particular the thin-walled steel structures, when the stocky element section may be generally critical to the inelastic behaviour. In this sense, the accurate first- and second-order elastic displacement solutions of element load effect along an element is vitally crucial, but cannot be simulated using neither numerical nodal nor consistent load methods alone, as long as no equilibrium condition is enforced in the finite element formulation, which can inevitably impair the structural safety of the steel structure particularly. It can be therefore regarded as a unique element load method to account for the element load nonlinearly. If accurate displacement solution is targeted for simulating the first- and second-order elastic behaviour on an element on the basis of sophisticated non-linear element stiffness formulation, the numerous prescribed stiffness matrices must indispensably be used for the plethora of specific transverse element loading patterns encountered. In order to circumvent this shortcoming, the present paper proposes a numerical technique to include the transverse element loading in the non-linear stiffness formulation without numerous prescribed stiffness matrices, and which is able to predict structural responses involving the effect of first-order element loads as well as the second-order coupling effect between the transverse load and axial force in the element. This paper shows that the principle of superposition can be applied to derive the generalized stiffness formulation for element load effect, so that the form of the stiffness matrix remains unchanged with respect to the specific loading patterns, but with only the magnitude of the loading (element load coefficients) being needed to be adjusted in the stiffness formulation, and subsequently the non-linear effect on element loadings can be commensurate by updating the magnitude of element load coefficients through the non-linear solution procedures. In principle, the element loading distribution is converted into a single loading magnitude at mid-span in order to provide the initial perturbation for triggering the member bowing effect due to its transverse element loads. This approach in turn sacrifices the effect of element loading distribution except at mid-span. Therefore, it can be foreseen that the load-deflection behaviour may not be as accurate as those at mid-span, but its discrepancy is still trivial as proved. This novelty allows for a very useful generalised stiffness formulation for a single higher-order element with arbitrary transverse loading patterns to be formulated. Moreover, another significance of this paper is placed on shifting the nodal response (system analysis) to both nodal and element response (sophisticated element formulation). For the conventional finite element method, such as the cubic element, all accurate solutions can be only found at node. It means no accurate and reliable structural safety can be ensured within an element, and as a result, it hinders the engineering applications. The results of the paper are verified using analytical stability function studies, as well as with numerical results reported by independent researchers on several simple frames.

A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

Vascular endothelial growth factor is an autocrine growth factor, signaling through neuropilin-1 in non-small cell lung cancer

Background The VEGF pathway has become an important therapeutic target in lung cancer, where VEGF has long been established as a potent pro-angiogenic growth factor expressed by many types of tumors. While Bevacizumab (Avastin) has proven successful in increasing the objective tumor response rate and in prolonging progression and overall survival in patients with NSCLC, the survival benefit is however relatively short and the majority of patients eventually relapse. The current use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors alone and in combination with chemotherapy has been underwhelming, highlighting an urgent need for new targeted therapies. In this study, we examined the mechanisms of VEGF-mediated survival in NSCLC cells and the role of the Neuropilin receptors in this process. Methods NSCLC cells were screened for expression of VEGF and its receptors. The effects of recombinant VEGF and its blockade on lung tumor cell proliferation and cell cycle were examined. Phosphorylation of Akt and Erk1/2 proteins was examined by high content analysis and confocal microscopy. The effects of silencing VEGF on cell proliferation and survival signaling were also assessed. A Neuropilin-1 stable-transfected cell line was generated. Cell growth characteristics in addition to pAkt and pErk1/2 signaling were studied in response to VEGF and its blockade. Tumor growth studies were carried out in nude mice following subcutaneous injection of NP1 over-expressing cells. Results Inhibition of the VEGF pathway with anti-VEGF and anti-VEGFR-2 antibodies or siRNA to VEGF, NP1 and NP2 resulted in growth inhibition of NP1 positive tumor cell lines associated with down-regulation of PI3K and MAPK kinase signaling. Stable transfection of NP1 negative cells with NP1 induced proliferation in vitro, which was further enhanced by exogenous VEGF. In vivo, NP1 over-expressing cells significantly increased tumor growth in xenografts compared to controls. Conclusions Our data demonstrate that VEGF is an autocrine growth factor in NSCLC signaling, at least in part, through NP1. Targeting this VEGF receptor may offer potential as a novel therapeutic approach and also support the evaluation of the role of NP1 as a biomarker predicting sensitivity or resistance to VEGF and VEGFR-targeted therapies in the clinical arena.

How does symptom burden differ in people with advanced CKD who are non-dialysis or currently receiving dialysis?

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) leads to a range of symptoms which are often under-recognised. Little is known about the full range of symptoms, particularly in who are pre-dialysis. Understanding symptom prevalence, distress, severity and frequency will help prioritise symptom management. Aims To examine symptom burden in advanced CKD (stages 4 and 5) and compare the symptom experience between those receiving dialysis or those who are pre-dialysis. Methods Using a cross-sectional design, a convenience sample of 436 people from three hospitals completed the Modified Dialysis Symptom Index (MDSI). Demographic and renal history data was also collected. Based on the 32 symptoms, we compared the prevalence, severity, distress and frequency of each symptom by treatment modality. Results Mean age was 48 years (range 18-87 years) and 53% were male. 75.5% (haemodialysis = 287; peritoneal dialysis = 42) were receiving dialysis and 24.5% (n = 107) were pre-dialysis. Overall, the mean symptom prevalence was 12.6 ± 7.9 and the most prevalent symptoms were fatigue (77%), bone or joint pain (60.3%) and itching (59.6%) across all CKD groups. The distress, severity and frequency of the symptoms were higher in the dialysis group. However, a higher frequency of psychological symptoms (worrying, feeling nervous and depression) were reported in the pre-dialysis group. Implication for clinical practice Patients with advanced CKD have a high symptom burden with those who are pre-dialysis needing greater psychological support. The MDSI could be used in nursing practice to screen patients for symptoms which could lead to timely and appropriate interventions.

Changes in disability, physical/mental health states and quality of life during an 8-Week multimodal physiotherapy programme in patients with chronic non-specific neck pain: A prospective cohort study

Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of an 8-week multimodal physiotherapy programme (MPP), integrating physical land-based therapeutic exercise (TE), adapted swimming and health education, as a treatment for patients with chronic non-specific neck pain (CNSNP), on disability, general health/mental states and quality of life. Methods 175 CNSNP patients from a community-based centre were recruited to participate in this prospective study. Intervention: 60-minute session (30 minutes of land-based exercise dedicated to improving mobility, motor control, resistance and strengthening of the neck muscles, and 30 minutes of adapted swimming with aerobic exercise keeping a neutral neck position using a snorkel). Health education was provided using a decalogue on CNSNP and constant repetition of brief advice by the physiotherapist during the supervision of the exercises in each session. Study outcomes: primary: disability (Neck Disability Index); secondary: physical and mental health states and quality of life of patients (SF-12 and EuroQoL-5D respectively). Differences between baseline data and that at the 8-week follow-up were calculated for all outcome variables. Results Disability showed a significant improvement of 24.6% from a mean (SD) of 28.2 (13.08) at baseline to 16.88 (11.62) at the end of the 8-week intervention. All secondary outcome variables were observed to show significant, clinically relevant improvements with increase ranges between 13.0% and 16.3% from a mean of 0.70 (0.2) at baseline to 0.83 (0.2), for EuroQoL-5D, and from a mean of 40.6 (12.7) at baseline to 56.9 (9.5), for mental health state, at the end of the 8-week intervention. Conclusion After 8 weeks of a MPP that integrated land-based physical TE, health education and adapted swimming, clinically-relevant and statistically-significant improvements were observed for disability, physical and mental health states and quality of life in patients who suffer CNSNP. The clinical efficacy requires verification using a randomised controlled study design.

Inside the black box of food safety: A qualitative study of ‘non-compliance’ among food businesses

Issue addressed The paper examines the meanings of food safety among food businesses deemed non-compliant and considers the need for an ‘insider perspective’ to inform a more nuanced health promotion practice. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 29 food business operators who had been recently deemed ‘non-compliant’ through Council inspection. Result Paradoxically, these ‘non-compliers’ revealed a strong belief in the importance of food safety as well as a desire to comply with the regulations as communicated to them by Environmental Health Officers (EHOs). Conclusions The evidence base of food safety is largely informed by the science of food hazards, yet there is a very important need to illuminate the ‘insider’ experience of food businesses doing food safety on a daily basis. This requires a more socially nuanced appreciation of food businesses beyond the simple dichotomy of compliant/ non-compliant. So what? Armed with a deeper understanding of the social context surrounding food safety practice, it is anticipated that a more balanced, collaborative mode of food safety health promotion could develop which could add to the current signature model of regulation.

Refined Plastic Hinge Analysis of Steel Frame Structures Comprising Non-Compact Sections: I: Formulation

Application of "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A concentrated plasticity formulation suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections is presented in this paper. This formulation, referred to as the refined plastic hinge method, implicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling.

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Ankylosing spondylitis in West Africans - evidence for a non-HLA-B27 protective effect

Objective - To determine the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in the Fula ethnic group in The Gambia, and relate the disease prevalence to the B27 frequency and subtype distribution of that population. Methods - 215 first degree relatives of 48 B27 positive Fula twin pairs, and 900 adult Fula males were screened for ankylosing spondylitis by clinical and, where appropriate, radiographic means. The B27 prevalence was determined by PCR/sequence specific oligonucleotides on finger prick samples from 100 unrelated Fula, and B27 subtype distribution by SSCP on unrelated B27 positive individuals. This data were then compared with the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis among B27 positive Caucasians. Results - No case of ankylosing spondylitis was seen. Six per cent of Fula are B27 positive, of which 32% are B*2703 and 68% B*2705. Assuming the penetrance of ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is the same as in B27 positive Caucasians, the probability of not observing any cases of ankylosing spondylitis among the Fula examined is remote (P = 6.7 x 10-6). Similarly, the chance of not seeing any cases among those expected to be either B*2705 or B*2703 was small (P = 3.2 x 10-4 for B*2705, and P = 0.02 for B*2703). Conclusions - The risk of developing ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is lower than in B27 positive Caucasians. This is not explained by the B27 subtype distribution among Fula, and suggests the presence of some non-B27 protective factor reducing the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in this population.

Efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: Results of a randomised placebo-controlled trial (ABILITY-1)

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adalimumab in patients with non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). Methods: Patients fulfilled Assessment of Spondyloarthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria for axial spondyloarthritis, had a Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) score of ≥ 4, total back pain score of ≥ 4 (10 cm visual analogue scale) and inadequate response, intolerance or contraindication to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs); patients fulfilling modified New York criteria for ankylosing spondylitis were excluded. Patients were randomised to adalimumab (N=91) or placebo (N=94). The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients achieving ASAS40 at week 12. Efficacy assessments included BASDAI and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS). MRI was performed at baseline and week 12 and scored using the Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada (SPARCC) index. Results: Significantly more patients in the adalimumab group achieved ASAS40 at week 12 compared with patients in the placebo group (36% vs 15%, p<0.001). Significant clinical improvements based on other ASAS responses, ASDAS and BASDAI were also detected at week 12 with adalimumab treatment, as were improvements in quality of life measures. Inflammation in the spine and sacroiliac joints on MRI significantly decreased after 12 weeks of adalimumab treatment. Shorter disease duration, younger age, elevated baseline C-reactive protein or higher SPARCC MRI sacroiliac joint scores were associated with better week 12 responses to adalimumab. The safety profile was consistent with what is known for adalimumab in ankylosing spondylitis and other diseases. Conclusions: In patients with nr-axSpA, adalimumab treatment resulted in effective control of disease activity, decreased inflammation and improved quality of life compared with placebo. Results from ABILITY-1 suggest that adalimumab has a positive benefit-risk profile in active nr-axSpA patients with inadequate response to NSAIDs.