Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Regional trade-offs between mine water and energy use : a water treatment case study

The mining industry faces concurrent pressures of reducing water use, energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming years. However, the interactions between water and energy use, as well as GHG e missions have largely been neglected in modelling studies to date. In addition, investigations tend to focus on the unit operation scale, with little consideration of whole-of-site or regional scale effects. This paper presents an application of a hierarchical systems model (HSM) developed to represent water, energy and GHG emissions fluxes at scales ranging from the unit operation, to the site level, to the regional level. The model allows for the linkages between water use, energy use and GHG emissions to be examined in a fl exible and intuitive way, so that mine sites can predict energy and emissions impacts of water use reduction schemes and vice versa. This paper examines whether this approach can also be applied to the regional scale with multiple mine sites. The model is used to conduct a case study of several coal mines in the Bowen Basin, Australia, to compare the utility of centralised and decentralised mine water treatment schemes. The case study takes into account geographical factors (such as water pumping distances and elevations), economic factors (such as capital and operating cost curves for desalination treatment plants) and regional factors (such as regionally varying climates and associated variance in mine water volumes and quality). The case study results indicate that treatment of saline mine water incurs a trade-off between water and energy use in all cases. However, significant cost differences between centralised and decentralised schemes can be observed in a simple economic analysis. Further research will examine the possibility for deriving model up-scaling algorithms to reduce computational requirements.

A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting : Northern Australian savanna systems

Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably fire. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as fire regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives.

Surveying the Wide Bay Burnett : changing lifestyles and the implications for regional transport planning

Significant lifestyle and demographic changes in Queensland are beginning to alter the landscape of regional transport planning. In 2006, Queensland Transport undertook a study to understand the implications of these changes on the transport planning task in regional Queensland. The study focused on the current travel characteristics of three Local Government Areas in the Wide Bay Burnett Region. Hervey Bay City represented the ‘sea change’ phenomenon; Wondai Shire represented the growing ‘tree change’ lifestyle; and Monto Shire represented communities which were either experiencing limited change or a decrease in population. The results of this research will be used to inform long term integrated regional transport planning in the region.

Drinking games participation among female students at a regional Australian university

Participation in drinking games (DGs) by university students is often associated with heavy drinking and negative social and health impacts. Although research in Australia indicates that university students tend to drink at risky levels, there is paucity of literature on DGs among students, especially those residing at regional universities. This research examined drinking among female college students of white background. Eighteen female students participated in face-to-face in-depth interviews to describe their DG experiences. Most women played DGs for social and monetary reasons, with many drinking high volumes of alcohol during the game. Excessive drinking was linked with the type of beverage consumed. Despite knowing the health risks associated with DGs, there was a strong social imperative for these young women to play these games. Research and public health initiatives to better understand and address problematic drinking activities in rural and regional Australia have tended to ignore women and the dominant white populations whose heavy drinking has been largely restricted to private spheres.

Micropolitical insights into Assistant Regional Directors’ leadership in Queensland Education

The position of Assistant Regional Directors, School Performance (ARD-SP) was established by the Department of Education and Training (DET), the government provider of public education in Queensland, in 2010, to improve student learning across Queensland by providing close supervision of principals. Based on interviews with 18 ARDs-SP and two of their immediate supervisors, this paper explores their views about this relatively new position and their understandings of the role. Following Blase and Anderson (1995), it uses micropolitical leadership theory to analyse comments made by the participants. A key finding was a view of leadership based on a differentiated supervision model whereby ARDs-SP worked with principals to ensure they met the corporate agenda. Participants’ comments favoured a leadership approach that was both adversarial (drawing upon power over and power through) and facilitative (drawing upon power through and power over) and for those principals deemed under-performing, an authoritarian leadership approach was apparent.

Fostering digital participation in regional and rural Australia

The deployment of high speed broadband around Australia offers opportunities to extend digital participation among and between regional and rural communities. Full realisation of these opportunities requires a greater understanding about community members’ current digital participation and development needs, to underpin innovative community-driven initiatives. This paper outlines the Fostering Digital Participation Project’s initial undertakings to determine current digital participation and the future digital aspirations of a number of regional and rural communities.

Tamworth Regional Council Social Plan 2006

The Tamworth Regional Social Plan is a document for collaborative planning involving the three spheres of government, the community and commercial sectors, with the aim of enhancing the quality and fairness of life in Tamworth. The Plan is a way of identifying needs and priorities for community facilities and services for Tamworth. The Social Plan reflects Council’s ongoing commitment to the people of the Tamworth Region and, in particular, the social needs and aspirations of our community. The Local Government (General) Amendment (Community and Social Plans) Regulation 1998 grew out of the 1996 NSW Social Justice Directions Statement “Fair Go, Fair Share, Fair Say” which committed the Department of Local Government to ensuring government services are responsive to community needs and diversity. The regulation is designed to:- • Improve Councils’ ability to take account of community needs when formulating their management plans; • Assist Councils to provide or advocate for appropriate and accessible services/facilities; and • Increase the community’s ability to monitor Council efforts in addressing community needs over time. The Local Government (General) Regulation 1999 requires that all councils develop a community/social plan and that all plans be prepared in accordance with guidelines issued by the Department. While Council has a broad function of providing leadership for Tamworth, it is not the only group responsible for providing community services. Developing the Social Plan has required cooperation with various State and Federal agencies as well as with Tamworth’s community groups and agencies.

Sex outside the city : sex work in rural and regional New South Wales

During the last decade 'prostitution' has been characterised as a 'social problem' throughout rural and regional New South Wales. As we show here, the urban-centric nature of popular and official discourses of prostitution have inadvertently allowed for the development of regulatory positions which have negatively impacted sex workers in rural and regional communities and lead to conflict among sectors of the rural sex industry and between the sex industry and community activists. In addition to examining the problematisation of sex work in rural New South Wales, this paper sets out to understand why rural sex work has historically lacked visibility in popular and scholarly discourses. We provide an overview of the distinctive organisational aspects of the sex industry in rural contexts. Evidence for our assertions is largely derived from primary interview data collected from sex industry workers based in rural New South Wales. The paper represents the first attempt in the research literature on prostitution to understand sex work as a rural phenomenon.

Alarm setting for the critically ill patient : A descriptive pilot survey of nurses’ perceptions of current practice in an Australian Regional Critical Care Unit

Aim: The aim of this survey was to assess registered nurse’s perceptions of alarm setting and management in an Australian Regional Critical Care Unit. Background: The setting and management of alarms within the critical care environment is one of the key responsibilities of the nurse in this area. However, with up to 99% of alarms potentially being false-positives it is easy for the nurse to become desensitised or fatigued by incessant alarms; in some cases up to 400 per patient per day. Inadvertently ignoring, silencing or disabling alarms can have deleterious implications for the patient and nurse. Method: A total population sample of 48 nursing staff from a 13 bedded ICU/HDU/CCU within regional Australia were asked to participate. A 10 item open-ended and multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to determine their perceptions and attitudes of alarm setting and management within this clinical area. Results: Two key themes were identified from the open-ended questions: attitudes towards inappropriate alarm settings and annoyance at delayed responses to alarms. A significant number of respondents (93%) agreed that alarm fatigue can result in alarm desensitisation and the disabling of alarms, whilst 81% suggested the key factors are those associated with false-positive alarms and inappropriately set alarms.

A continent-wide study reveals clear relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation

Aim Large-scale patterns linking energy availability, biological productivity and diversity form a central focus of ecology. Despite evidence that the activity and abundance of animals may be limited by climatic variables associated with regional biological productivity (e.g. mean annual precipitation and annual actual evapotranspiration), it is unclear whether plant–granivore interactions are themselves influenced by these climatic factors across broad spatial extents. We evaluated whether climatic conditions that are known to alter the abundance and activity of granivorous animals also affect rates of seed removal. Location Eleven sites across temperate North America. Methods We used a common protocol to assess the removal of the same seed species (Avena sativa) over a 2-day period. Model selection via the Akaike information criterion was used to determine a set of candidate binomial generalized linear mixed models that evaluated the relationship between local climatic data and post-dispersal seed predation. Results Annual actual evapotranspiration was the single best predictor of the proportion of seeds removed. Annual actual evapotranspiration and mean annual precipitation were both positively related to mean seed removal and were included in four and three of the top five models, respectively. Annual temperature range was also positively related to seed removal and was an explanatory variable in three of the top four models. Main conclusions Our work provides the first evidence that energy and precipitation, which are known to affect consumer abundance and activity, also translate to strong, predictable patterns of seed predation across a continent. More generally, these findings suggest that future changes in temperature and precipitation could have widespread consequences for plant species composition in grasslands, through impacts on plant recruitment.

Morphometric analysis of telencephalic structure in a variety of neognath and paleognath bird species reveals regional differences associated with specific behavioral traits

Birds exhibit a huge array of behavior, ecology and physiology, and occupy nearly every environment on earth, ranging from the desert outback of Australia to the tropical rain forests of Panama. Some birds have adopted a fully nocturnal lifestyle, such as the barn owl and kiwi, while others, such as the albatross, spend nearly their entire life flying over the ocean. Each species has evolved unique adaptations over millions of years to function in their respective niche. In order to increase processing power or network efficiency, many of these adaptations require enlargements and/or specializations of the brain as a whole or of specific brain regions. In this study, we examine the relative size and morphology of 9 telencephalic regions in a number of Paleognath and Neognath birds and relate the findings to differences in behavior and sensory ecology. We pay particular attention to those species that have undergone a relative enlargement of the telencephalon to determine whether this relative increase in telencephalic size is homogeneous across different brain regions or whether particular regions have become differentially enlarged. The analysis indicates that changes in the relative size of telencephalic regions are not homogeneous, with every species showing hypertrophy or hypotrophy of at least one of them. The three-dimensional structure of these regions in different species was also variable, in particular that of the mesopallium in kiwi. The findings from this study provide further evidence that the changes in relative brain size in birds reflect a process of mosaic evolution.

The regional distribution of anxiety disorders : implications for the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010

Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.