Honesty about adverse events - more honoured in the breach than in the observance

The medical board of Australia Code of conduct reminds doctors that" "When adverse events occur, you have a responsibility to be open and honest in your communication with your patient, to review what has occurred and to report appropriately." More honoured in the breach rather than the observence may or may not be correct. Faced with the English concerns and the Netherlands research, an evidence based assessment of compliance with the ethical duty to disclose adverse events is warranted.

Health and safety for clean-up and recovery workers

This paper will identify and discuss the major occupational health and safety (OHS) hazards and risks for clean-up and recovery workers. The lessons learned from previous disasters including; the Exxon Valdez oil spill, World Trade Centre (WTC) terrorist attack, Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico oil spill will be discussed. The case for an increased level of preparation and planning to mitigate the health risks for clean-up and recovery workers will be presented, based on recurring themes identified in the peer reviewed literature. There are a number of important issues pertaining to the occupational health and safety of workers who are engaged in clean-up and recovery operations following natural and technological disasters. These workers are often exposed to a wide range of occupational health and safety hazards, some of which may be unknown at the time. It is well established that clean-up and recovery operations involve risks of physical injury, for example, from manual handling, mechanical equipment, extreme temperatures, slips, trips and falls. In addition to these well established physical injury risks there are now an increasing number of studies which highlight the risks of longer term or chronic health effects arising from clean-up and recovery work. In particular, follow up studies from the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Hurricane Katrina and the World Trade Centre (WTC) terrorism attack have documented the longer term health consequences of these events. These health effects include respiratory symptoms and musculoskeletal disorders, as well as post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In large scale operations many of those workers and supervisors involved have not had any specific occupational health and safety (OHS) training and may not have access to the necessary instruction, personal protective equipment or other appropriate equipment, this is especially true when volunteers are used to form part of the clean-up and recovery workforce. In general, first responders are better equipped and trained than clean-up and recovery workers and some of the training approaches used for the traditional first responders would be relevant for clean-up and recovery workers.

Affective events theory as a framework for understanding third-party consumer complaints

Poor complaint management may result in organizations losing customers and revenue. Consumers exhibit negative emotional responses when dissatisfied and this may lead to a complaint to a third-party organization. Since little information is available on the role of emotion in the consumer complaint process or how to manage complaints effectively, we offer an emotions perspective by applying Affective Events Theory (AET) to complaint behavior. This study presents the first application of AET in a consumption context and advances a theoretical framework supported by qualitative research for emotional responses to complaints. In contrast to commonly held views on gender and emotion, men as well as women use emotion-focused coping to complain.

Vulnerability and damage analysis of reinforced concrete framed buildings subjected to near field blast events

Terrorists usually target high occupancy iconic and public buildings using vehicle borne incendiary devices in order to claim a maximum number of lives and cause extensive damage to public property. While initial casualties are due to direct shock by the explosion, collapse of structural elements may extensively increase the total figure. Most of these buildings have been or are built without consideration of their vulnerability to such events. Therefore, the vulnerability and residual capacity assessment of buildings to deliberately exploded bombs is important to provide mitigation strategies to protect the buildings' occupants and the property. Explosive loads and their effects on a building have therefore attracted significant attention in the recent past. Comprehensive and economical design strategies must be developed for future construction. This research investigates the response and damage of reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings together with their load bearing key structural components to a near field blast event. Finite element method (FEM) based analysis was used to investigate the structural framing system and components for global stability, followed by a rigorous analysis of key structural components for damage evaluation using the codes SAP2000 and LS DYNA respectively. The research involved four important areas in structural engineering. They are blast load determination, numerical modelling with FEM techniques, material performance under high strain rate and non-linear dynamic structural analysis. The response and damage of a RC framed building for different blast load scenarios were investigated. The blast influence region for a two dimensional RC frame was investigated for different load conditions and identified the critical region for each loading case. Two types of design methods are recommended for RC columns to provide superior residual capacities. They are RC columns detailing with multi-layer steel reinforcement cages and a composite columns including a central structural steel core. These are to provide post blast gravity load resisting capacity compared to typical RC column against a catastrophic collapse. Overall, this research broadens the current knowledge of blast and residual capacity analysis of RC framed structures and recommends methods to evaluate and mitigate blast impact on key elements of multi-storey buildings.

Web based surveillance systems could improve disease detection and the response to emerging disease events

The Chinese government should be commended for its open, concerted, and rapid response to the recent H7N9 influenza outbreak. However, the first known case was not reported until 48 days after disease onset.1 Although the difficulties in detecting the virus and the lack of suitable diagnostic methods have been the focus of discussion,2 systematic limitations that may have contributed to this delay have hardly been discussed. The detection speed of surveillance systems is limited by the highly structured nature of information flow and hierarchical organisation of these systems. Flu surveillance usually relies on notification to a central authority of laboratory confirmed cases or presentations to sentinel practices for flu-like illness. Each step in this pathway presents a bottleneck at which information and time can be lost; this limitation must be dealt with...

Towards networked governance : improving interagency communication and collaboration for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in Australia

Major disasters, such as bushfires or floods, place significant stress on scarce public resources. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this stress. An integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) could reduce the stress by encouraging the more efficient use of pooled resources and expertise. A comparative analysis of three extreme climate-related events that occurred in Australia between 2009 and 2011 indicated that a strategy to improve interagency communication and collaboration would be a key factor in this type of policy/planning integration. These findings are in accord with the concepts of Joined-up Government and Network Governance. Five key reforms are proposed: developing a shared policy vision; adopting multi-level planning; integrating legislation; networking organisations; and establishing cooperative funding. These reforms are examined with reference to the related research literature in order to identify potential problems associated with their implementation. The findings are relevant for public policy generally but are particularly useful for CCA and DRM.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Identifying the Events That Connect Social Media Users : Charting Follower Accession on Twitter

Twitter is the focus of much research attention, both in traditional academic circles and in commercial market and media research, as analytics give increasing insight into the performance of the platform in areas as diverse as political communication, crisis management, television audiencing and other industries. While methods for tracking Twitter keywords and hashtags have developed apace and are well documented, the make-up of the Twitter user base and its evolution over time have been less understood to date. Recent research efforts have taken advantage of functionality provided by Twitter's Application Programming Interface to develop methodologies to extract information that allows us to understand the growth of Twitter, its geographic spread and the processes by which particular Twitter users have attracted followers. From politicians to sporting teams, and from YouTube personalities to reality television stars, this technique enables us to gain an understanding of what prompts users to follow others on Twitter. This article outlines how we came upon this approach, describes the method we adopted to produce accession graphs and discusses their use in Twitter research. It also addresses the wider ethical implications of social network analytics, particularly in the context of a detailed study of the Twitter user base.

Impacts of climatic factors on evolution of molecular diversity and the natural distribution of wild stocks of the giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)

Natural distributions of most freshwater taxa are restricted geographically, a pattern that reflects dispersal limitation. Macrobrachium rosenbergii is unusual because it occurs naturally in rivers from near Pakistan in the west, across India and Bangladesh to the Malay Peninsula, and across the Sunda Shelf and Indonesian archipelago to western Java. Individuals cannot tolerate full marine conditions, so dispersal between river drainage basins must occur at limited geographical scales when ecological or climatic factors are favorable. We examined molecular diversity in wild populations of M. rosenbergii across its complete natural range to document patterns of diversity and to relate them to factors that have driven evolution of diversity in this species. We found 3 clades in the mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) data set that corresponded geographically with eastern, central, and western sets of haplotypes that last shared a common ancestor 1 × 106 y ago. The eastern clade was closest to the common ancestor of all 3 clades and to the common ancestor with its congener, Macrobrachium spinipes, distributed east of Huxley's Line. Macrobrachium rosenbergii could have evolved in the western Indonesian archipelago and spread westward during the early to mid-Pleistocene to India and Sri Lanka. Additional groups identified in the nuclear DNA data set in the central and western clades probably indicate secondary contact via dispersal between regions and modern introductions that have mixed nuclear and mtDNA genes. Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations can explain dispersal across the Indonesian archipelago and parts of mainland southeastern Asia via changing river drainage connections in shallow seas on wide continental shelves. At the western end of the modern distribution where continental shelves are smaller, intermittent freshwater plumes from large rivers probably permitted larval dispersal across inshore areas of lowered salinity.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Polycarbonate based non-chemically amplified photoresists for extreme ultraviolet lithography

Some initial EUVL patterning results for polycarbonate based non-chemically amplified resists are presented. Without full optimization the developer a resolution of 60 nm line spaces could be obtained. With slight overexposure (1.4 × E0) 43.5 nm lines at a half pitch of 50 nm could be printed. At 2x E0 a 28.6 nm lines at a half pitch of 50 nm could be obtained with a LER that was just above expected for mask roughness. Upon being irradiated with EUV photons, these polymers undergo chain scission with the loss of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. The remaining photoproducts appear to be non-volatile under standard EUV irradiation conditions, but do exhibit increased solubility in developer compared to the unirradiated polymer. The sensitivity of the polymers to EUV light is related to their oxygen content and ways to increase the sensitivity of the polymers to 10 mJ cm-2 is discussed.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Antispin thrust allocation for marine vessels

In extreme weather conditions, thrusters on ships and rigs may be subject to severe thrust losses caused by ventilation and in-and-out-of-water events. When a thruster ventilates, air is sucked down from the surface and into the propeller. In more severe cases, parts of or even the whole propeller can be out of the water. These losses vary rapidly with time and cause increased wear and tear in addition to reduced thruster performance. In this paper, a thrust allocation strategy is proposed to reduce the effects of thrust losses and to reduce the possibility of multiple ventilation events. This thrust allocation strategy is named antispin thrust allocation, based on the analogous behavior of antispin wheel control of cars. The proposed thrust allocation strategy is important for improving the life span of the propulsion system and the accuracy of positioning for vessels conducting station keeping in terms of dynamic positioning or thruster-assisted position mooring. Application of this strategy can result in an increase of operational time and, thus, increased profitability. The performance of the proposed allocation strategy is demonstrated with experiments on a model ship.

Gambling on gambling in Baccarat : financial implications of raising bet limits and table differentials

The house advantage for Baccarat is known, hence the theoretical win can be determined. What is impractical to theoretically determine is the frequency and financial implications of extreme events, for example, prolonged winning streaks coupled with various betting patterns. The simulation herein provides such granularity. We explore the effect of following the „hot hand‟, that is, rapidly escalating bets when players are on a winning streak. To minimize their exposure, casino management sets a table bet maximum as well as a table differential. These figures can and do serve as a means to differentiate one casino from another. As the allowable bet maximum increases so does the total amount bet, which increases the theoretical winnings, thus suggesting that a high bet limit and differential is beneficial for the house. However, the greater are these amounts, the greater the number of shoes that end with players losing relative to a constant betting scenario (the number of times a player wins at all can drop from ~47% of the time to less than a quarter); but there will, on occasion, be more extreme payouts to players. This simulation is therefore intended to help casino managers set betting limits that maximize total winnings while bearing in mind both the likelihood and magnitude of negative outcomes to the casino.