Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Detecting anomalous events at railway level crossings

Collisions between pedestrians and vehicles continue to be a major problem throughout the world. Pedestrians trying to cross roads and railway tracks without any caution are often highly susceptible to collisions with vehicles and trains. Continuous financial, human and other losses have prompted transport related organizations to come up with various solutions addressing this issue. However, the quest for new and significant improvements in this area is still ongoing. This work addresses this issue by building a general framework using computer vision techniques to automatically monitor pedestrian movements in such high-risk areas to enable better analysis of activity, and the creation of future alerting strategies. As a result of rapid development in the electronics and semi-conductor industry there is extensive deployment of CCTV cameras in public places to capture video footage. This footage can then be used to analyse crowd activities in those particular places. This work seeks to identify the abnormal behaviour of individuals in video footage. In this work we propose using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Full-2D HMM and Spatial HMM to model the normal activities of people. The outliers of the model (i.e. those observations with insufficient likelihood) are identified as abnormal activities. Location features, flow features and optical flow textures are used as the features for the model. The proposed approaches are evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets, and we demonstrate improved performance using a Semi-2D Hidden Markov Model compared to other state of the art methods. Further we illustrate how our proposed methods can be applied to detect anomalous events at rail level crossings.

Cardiac parasympathetic reactivation following exercise : implications for training prescription

The objective of exercise training is to initiate desirable physiological adaptations that ultimately enhance physical work capacity. Optimal training prescription requires an individualized approach, with an appropriate balance of training stimulus and recovery and optimal periodization. Recovery from exercise involves integrated physiological responses. The cardiovascular system plays a fundamental role in facilitating many of these responses, including thermoregulation and delivery/removal of nutrients and waste products. As a marker of cardiovascular recovery, cardiac parasympathetic reactivation following a training session is highly individualized. It appears to parallel the acute/intermediate recovery of the thermoregulatory and vascular systems, as described by the supercompensation theory. The physiological mechanisms underlying cardiac parasympathetic reactivation are not completely understood. However, changes in cardiac autonomic activity may provide a proxy measure of the changes in autonomic input into organs and (by default) the blood flow requirements to restore homeostasis. Metaboreflex stimulation (e.g. muscle and blood acidosis) is likely a key determinant of parasympathetic reactivation in the short term (0–90 min post-exercise), whereas baroreflex stimulation (e.g. exercise-induced changes in plasma volume) probably mediates parasympathetic reactivation in the intermediate term (1–48 h post-exercise). Cardiac parasympathetic reactivation does not appear to coincide with the recovery of all physiological systems (e.g. energy stores or the neuromuscular system). However, this may reflect the limited data currently available on parasympathetic reactivation following strength/resistance-based exercise of variable intensity. In this review, we quantitatively analyse post-exercise cardiac parasympathetic reactivation in athletes and healthy individuals following aerobic exercise, with respect to exercise intensity and duration, and fitness/training status. Our results demonstrate that the time required for complete cardiac autonomic recovery after a single aerobic-based training session is up to 24 h following low-intensity exercise, 24–48 h following threshold-intensity exercise and at least 48 h following high-intensity exercise. Based on limited data, exercise duration is unlikely to be the greatest determinant of cardiac parasympathetic reactivation. Cardiac autonomic recovery occurs more rapidly in individuals with greater aerobic fitness. Our data lend support to the concept that in conjunction with daily training logs, data on cardiac parasympathetic activity are useful for individualizing training programmes. In the final sections of this review, we provide recommendations for structuring training microcycles with reference to cardiac parasympathetic recovery kinetics. Ultimately, coaches should structure training programmes tailored to the unique recovery kinetics of each individual.

Selecting rainfall events for effective Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) implementation

The current approach for protecting the receiving water environment from urban stormwater pollution is the adoption of structural measures commonly referred to as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD). The treatment efficiency of WSUD measures closely depends on the design of the specific treatment units. As stormwater quality can be influenced by rainfall characteristics, the selection of appropriate rainfall events for treatment design is essential to ensure the effectiveness of WSUD systems. Based on extensive field investigation of four urban residential catchments and computer modelling, this paper details a technically robust approach for the selection of rainfall events for stormwater treatment design using a three-component model. The modelling outcomes indicate that selecting smaller average recurrence interval (ARI) events with high intensity-short duration as the threshold for the treatment system design is the most feasible since these events cumulatively generate a major portion of the annual pollutant load compared to the other types of rainfall events, despite producing a relatively smaller runoff volume. This implies that designs based on small and more frequent rainfall events rather than larger rainfall events would be appropriate in the context of efficiency in treatment performance, cost-effectiveness and possible savings in land area needed.

A novel representation of bioacoustic events for content-based search in field audio data

Bioacoustic data can provide an important base for environmental monitoring. To explore a large amount of field recordings collected, an automated similarity search algorithm is presented in this paper. A region of an audio defined by frequency and time bounds is provided by a user; the content of the region is used to construct a query. In the retrieving process, our algorithm will automatically scan through recordings to search for similar regions. In detail, we present a feature extraction approach based on the visual content of vocalisations – in this case ridges, and develop a generic regional representation of vocalisations for indexing. Our feature extraction method works best for bird vocalisations showing ridge characteristics. The regional representation method allows the content of an arbitrary region of a continuous recording to be described in a compressed format.

Clinical practice guidelines for nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory : A modified Delphi study

Aim To develop clinical practice guidelines for nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Background Numerous studies have reported that nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia is safe. However, the broad scope of existing guidelines for the administration and monitoring of patients who receive sedation during medical procedures without an anaesthetist presents means there is a lack of specific guidance regarding optimal nursing practices for the unique circumstances in which nurse-administered procedural sedation and analgesia is used in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Methods A sequential mixed methods design was utilised. Initial recommendations were produced from three studies conducted by the authors: an integrative review; a qualitative study; and a cross-sectional survey. The recommendations were revised in accordance with responses from a modified Delphi study. The first Delphi round was completed by nine senior cardiac catheterisation laboratory nurses. All but one of the draft recommendations met the pre-determined cut-off point for inclusion. There were a total of 59 responses to the second round. Consensus was reached on all recommendations. Implications for nursing The guidelines that were derived from the Delphi study offer twenty four recommendations within six domains of nursing practice: Pre-procedural assessment; Pre-procedural patient and family education; Pre-procedural patient comfort; Intra-procedural patient comfort; Intra-procedural patient assessment and monitoring; and Post-procedural patient assessment and monitoring. Conclusion These guidelines provide an important foundation towards the delivery of safe, consistent and evidence-based nursing care for the many patients who receive sedation in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory setting.

A review of sedation scales for the cardiac catheterization laboratory

Sedation scales have the potential to facilitate effective procedural sedation and analgesia in the cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL). For this potential to become realised, a scale that is suitable for use in the CCL either needs to be identified or developed. To identify sedation scales, a review of Medline and CINHAL was conducted. One sedation scale for the CCL, the NASPE SED, and 15 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) scales met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Analysis of the scale’s item structures and psychometric properties was then performed. None of these scales were deemed suitable for use in the CCL. As such, further research is required to develop a new scale. The new scale should consist of more than one item because it will be the most effective for tracking the patient’s response to medications. Specific tests required to conduct a rigorous evaluation of the new scale’s psychometric properties are outlined in this paper.

InterLACE : a new international collaboration for a Life course approach to women's reproductive health and chronic disease events.

Evidence from population-based studies of women increasingly points to the inter-related nature of reproductive health, lifestyle, and chronic disease risk. This paper describes the recently established International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease. InterLACE aims to advance the evidence base for women's health policy beyond associations from disparate studies by means of systematic and culturally sensitive synthesis of longitudinal data. Currently InterLACE draws on individual level data for reproductive health and chronic disease among 200,000 women from over thirteen studies of women's health in seven countries. The rationale for this multi-study research programme is set out in terms of a life course perspective to reproductive health. The research programme will build a comprehensive picture of reproductive health through life in relation to chronic disease risk. Although combining multiple international studies poses methodological challenges, InterLACE represents an invaluable opportunity to strength evidence to guide the development of timely and tailored preventive health strategies.

Cardiac safety concerns for ondansetron, an antiemetic commonly used for nausea linked to cancer treatment and following anaesthesia

Introduction: Ondansetron is a 5-HT3 receptor antagonist commonly used as an anti-emetic to prevent the nausea and vomiting associated with anti-cancer drugs, cancer radiotherapy, or postoperatively. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a warning for ondansetron due to a potential for prolongation of the QT interval of the electrocardiogram (ECG), a phenomenon that is associated with an increased risk of the potentially fatal arrhythmia torsade de pointes. Areas covered: We undertook a review of the cardiac safety of ondansetron. Our primary sources of information were PubMed (with downloading of full articles), and the internet. Expert opinion: The dose of ondansetron that the FDA has concerns about is 32 mg iv (or several doses that are equivalent to this), which is only used in preventing nausea and vomiting associated with cancer chemotherapy. This suggests that ondansetron may be safe in the lower doses used to prevent the nausea and vomiting in radiation treatment or postoperatively. However, as there is a report that a lower dose of ondansetron prolonged the QT interval in healthy volunteers, this needs to be clarified by the FDA. More research needs to be undertaken of the relationship between QT prolongation and torsades in order that the FDA can produce clear-cut evidence of pro-arrhythmic risk when introducing warnings for this.

Cardiac safety concerns for domperidone, an antiemetic and prokinetic, and galactogogue medicine

Introduction: Domperidone is a dopamine D2-receptor antagonist developed as an antiemetic and prokinetic agents. Oral domperidone is not approved in the US, but is used in many countries to treat nausea and vomiting, gastroparesis, and as a galactogogue (to promote lactation). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have issued a warning about the cardiac safety of domperidone. Areas covered: The authors undertook a review of the cardiac safety of oral domperidone. Expert opinion: The data from preclinical studies are unambiguous in identifying domperidone as able to produce marked hERG channel inhibition and action potential prolongation at clinically relevant concentrations. The compound’s propensity to augment instability of action potential duration and action potential triangulation are also indicative of proarrhythmic potential. Domperidone should not be administered to subjects with pre-existing QT prolongation/LQTS, subjects receiving drugs that inhibit CYP3A4, subjects with electrolyte abnormalities or with other risk factors for QT-prolongation. With these provisos, it is possible that domperidone may be used as a galactogogue without direct risk to healthy breast feeding women but more safety information should be sought in this situation. Also, more safety information is required regarding risk to breast feeding infants or before domperidone is routinely used in gastroparesis or gastroesphageal reflux in children.

Rapid scanning of spectrograms for efficient identification of bioacoustic events in big data

Acoustic sensing is a promising approach to scaling faunal biodiversity monitoring. Scaling the analysis of audio collected by acoustic sensors is a big data problem. Standard approaches for dealing with big acoustic data include automated recognition and crowd based analysis. Automatic methods are fast at processing but hard to rigorously design, whilst manual methods are accurate but slow at processing. In particular, manual methods of acoustic data analysis are constrained by a 1:1 time relationship between the data and its analysts. This constraint is the inherent need to listen to the audio data. This paper demonstrates how the efficiency of crowd sourced sound analysis can be increased by an order of magnitude through the visual inspection of audio visualized as spectrograms. Experimental data suggests that an analysis speedup of 12× is obtainable for suitable types of acoustic analysis, given that only spectrograms are shown.

Honesty about adverse events - more honoured in the breach than in the observance

The medical board of Australia Code of conduct reminds doctors that" "When adverse events occur, you have a responsibility to be open and honest in your communication with your patient, to review what has occurred and to report appropriately." More honoured in the breach rather than the observence may or may not be correct. Faced with the English concerns and the Netherlands research, an evidence based assessment of compliance with the ethical duty to disclose adverse events is warranted.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Affective events theory as a framework for understanding third-party consumer complaints

Poor complaint management may result in organizations losing customers and revenue. Consumers exhibit negative emotional responses when dissatisfied and this may lead to a complaint to a third-party organization. Since little information is available on the role of emotion in the consumer complaint process or how to manage complaints effectively, we offer an emotions perspective by applying Affective Events Theory (AET) to complaint behavior. This study presents the first application of AET in a consumption context and advances a theoretical framework supported by qualitative research for emotional responses to complaints. In contrast to commonly held views on gender and emotion, men as well as women use emotion-focused coping to complain.

Vulnerability and damage analysis of reinforced concrete framed buildings subjected to near field blast events

Terrorists usually target high occupancy iconic and public buildings using vehicle borne incendiary devices in order to claim a maximum number of lives and cause extensive damage to public property. While initial casualties are due to direct shock by the explosion, collapse of structural elements may extensively increase the total figure. Most of these buildings have been or are built without consideration of their vulnerability to such events. Therefore, the vulnerability and residual capacity assessment of buildings to deliberately exploded bombs is important to provide mitigation strategies to protect the buildings' occupants and the property. Explosive loads and their effects on a building have therefore attracted significant attention in the recent past. Comprehensive and economical design strategies must be developed for future construction. This research investigates the response and damage of reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings together with their load bearing key structural components to a near field blast event. Finite element method (FEM) based analysis was used to investigate the structural framing system and components for global stability, followed by a rigorous analysis of key structural components for damage evaluation using the codes SAP2000 and LS DYNA respectively. The research involved four important areas in structural engineering. They are blast load determination, numerical modelling with FEM techniques, material performance under high strain rate and non-linear dynamic structural analysis. The response and damage of a RC framed building for different blast load scenarios were investigated. The blast influence region for a two dimensional RC frame was investigated for different load conditions and identified the critical region for each loading case. Two types of design methods are recommended for RC columns to provide superior residual capacities. They are RC columns detailing with multi-layer steel reinforcement cages and a composite columns including a central structural steel core. These are to provide post blast gravity load resisting capacity compared to typical RC column against a catastrophic collapse. Overall, this research broadens the current knowledge of blast and residual capacity analysis of RC framed structures and recommends methods to evaluate and mitigate blast impact on key elements of multi-storey buildings.