Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Leveraging social network data for analytical CRM strategies : the introduction of social BI

The skyrocketing trend for social media on the Internet greatly alters analytical Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Against this backdrop, the purpose of this paper is to advance the conceptual design of Business Intelligence (BI) systems with data identified from social networks. We develop an integrated social network data model, based on an in-depth analysis of Facebook. The data model can inform the design of data warehouses in order to offer new opportunities for CRM analyses, leading to a more consistent and richer picture of customers? characteristics, needs, wants, and demands. Four major contributions are offered. First, Social CRM and Social BI are introduced as emerging fields of research. Second, we develop a conceptual data model to identify and systematize the data available on online social networks. Third, based on the identified data, we design a multidimensional data model as an early contribution to the conceptual design of Social BI systems and demonstrate its application by developing management reports in a retail scenario. Fourth, intellectual challenges for advancing Social CRM and Social BI are discussed.

Educational stress among Chinese adolescents : measurement, risk factors and associations with mental health

Academic pressure among adolescents is a major risk factor for poor mental health and suicide and other harmful behaviours. While this is a worldwide phenomenon, it appears to be especially pronounced in China and other East Asian countries. Despite a growing body of research into adolescent mental health in recent years, the multiple constructs within the ‘educational stress’ phenomenon have not been clearly articulated in Chinese contexts. Further, the individual, family, school and peer influencing factors for educational stress and its associations with adolescent mental health are not well understood. An in-depth investigation may provide important information for the ongoing educational reform in Mainland China with a special focus on students’ mental health and wellbeing. The primary goal of this study was to examine the relative contribution of educational stress to poor mental health, in comparison to other well-known individual, family, school and peer factors. Another important task was to identify significant risk factors for educational stress. In addition, due to the lack of a culturally suitable instrument for educational stress in this population, a new tool – the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA) was initially developed in this study and tested for reliability and validity. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from convenient samples of secondary school students in Shandong, China. The pilot survey was conducted with 347 students (grades 8 and 11) to test the psychometric properties of the ESSA and other scales or questions in the questionnaire. Based on factor analysis and reliability and validity testing, the 16-item scale (the ESSA) with five factors showed adequate to good internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent and predictive validity. Its factor structure was further demonstrated in the main survey with a confirmatory factor analysis illustrating a good fit of the proposed model based on a confirmatory factor analysis. The reliabilities of other scales and questions were also adequate to be used in this study. The main survey was subsequently conducted with a sample of 1627 secondary school (grades 7-12) students to examine the influencing factors of educational stress and its associations with mental health outcomes, including depression, happiness and suicidal behaviours. A wide range of individual, family, school and peer factors were found to have a significant association with the total ESSA and subscale scores. Most of the strong factors for academic stress were school or study-related, including rural school location, low school connectedness, perceived poor academic grades and frequent emotional conflicts with teachers and peers. Unexpectedly, family and parental factors, such as parental bonding, family connectedness and conflicts with parents were found to have little or no association with educational stress. Educational stress was the most predictive variable for depression, but was not strongly associated with happiness. It had a strong association with suicide ideation but not with suicide attempts. Among five subscales of the ESSA, ‘Study despondency’ score had the strongest associations with these mental health measures. Surprising, two subscales, ‘Self-expectation’ and ‘Worry about grades’ showed a protective effect on suicidal behaviours. An additional analysis revealed that although academic pressure was the most commonly reported reason for suicidal thinking, the occurrence of problems in peer relationships such as peer teasing and bullying, and romantic problems had a much stronger relationship with actual attempts. This study provides some insights into the nature and health implications of educational stress among Chinese adolescents. Findings in this study suggest that interventions on educational stress should focus on school environment and academic factors. Intervention programs focused on educational stress may have a high impact on the prevalence of common mental disorders such as depression. Efforts to increase perceived happiness however should cover a wider range of individual, family and school factors. The importance of healthy peer relationships should be adequately emphasised in suicide prevention. In addition, the newly developed scale (the ESSA) demonstrates sound psychometric properties and is expected to be used in future research into academic-related stress among secondary school adolescents.

An analytical tool that quantifies cellular morphology changes from three-dimensional fluorescence images

The most common software analysis tools available for measuring fluorescence images are for two-dimensional (2D) data that rely on manual settings for inclusion and exclusion of data points, and computer-aided pattern recognition to support the interpretation and findings of the analysis. It has become increasingly important to be able to measure fluorescence images constructed from three-dimensional (3D) datasets in order to be able to capture the complexity of cellular dynamics and understand the basis of cellular plasticity within biological systems. Sophisticated microscopy instruments have permitted the visualization of 3D fluorescence images through the acquisition of multispectral fluorescence images and powerful analytical software that reconstructs the images from confocal stacks that then provide a 3D representation of the collected 2D images. Advanced design-based stereology methods have progressed from the approximation and assumptions of the original model-based stereology(1) even in complex tissue sections(2). Despite these scientific advances in microscopy, a need remains for an automated analytic method that fully exploits the intrinsic 3D data to allow for the analysis and quantification of the complex changes in cell morphology, protein localization and receptor trafficking. Current techniques available to quantify fluorescence images include Meta-Morph (Molecular Devices, Sunnyvale, CA) and Image J (NIH) which provide manual analysis. Imaris (Andor Technology, Belfast, Northern Ireland) software provides the feature MeasurementPro, which allows the manual creation of measurement points that can be placed in a volume image or drawn on a series of 2D slices to create a 3D object. This method is useful for single-click point measurements to measure a line distance between two objects or to create a polygon that encloses a region of interest, but it is difficult to apply to complex cellular network structures. Filament Tracer (Andor) allows automatic detection of the 3D neuronal filament-like however, this module has been developed to measure defined structures such as neurons, which are comprised of dendrites, axons and spines (tree-like structure). This module has been ingeniously utilized to make morphological measurements to non-neuronal cells(3), however, the output data provide information of an extended cellular network by using a software that depends on a defined cell shape rather than being an amorphous-shaped cellular model. To overcome the issue of analyzing amorphous-shaped cells and making the software more suitable to a biological application, Imaris developed Imaris Cell. This was a scientific project with the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, which has been developed to calculate the relationship between cells and organelles. While the software enables the detection of biological constraints, by forcing one nucleus per cell and using cell membranes to segment cells, it cannot be utilized to analyze fluorescence data that are not continuous because ideally it builds cell surface without void spaces. To our knowledge, at present no user-modifiable automated approach that provides morphometric information from 3D fluorescence images has been developed that achieves cellular spatial information of an undefined shape (Figure 1). We have developed an analytical platform using the Imaris core software module and Imaris XT interfaced to MATLAB (Mat Works, Inc.). These tools allow the 3D measurement of cells without a pre-defined shape and with inconsistent fluorescence network components. Furthermore, this method will allow researchers who have extended expertise in biological systems, but not familiarity to computer applications, to perform quantification of morphological changes in cell dynamics.

Minimization of railhead edge stresses through shape optimization

The railhead is severely stressed under the localized wheel contact patch close to the gaps in insulated rail joints. A modified railhead profile in the vicinity of the gapped joint, through a shape optimization model based on a coupled genetic algorithm and finite element method, effectively alters the contact zone and reduces the railhead edge stress concentration significantly. Two optimization methods, a grid search method and a genetic algorithm, were employed for this optimization problem. The optimal results from these two methods are discussed and, in particular, their suitability for the rail end stress minimization problem is studied. Through several numerical examples, the optimal profile is shown to be unaffected by either the magnitude or the contact position of the loaded wheel. The numerical results are validated through a large-scale experimental study.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Reconstructing the history of maize streak virus strain a dispersal to reveal diversification hot spots and its origin in southern Africa

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa. © 2011, American Society for Microbiology.

How to design extended finite state machine test models in Java

This chapter is a tutorial that teaches you how to design extended finite state machine (EFSM) test models for a system that you want to test. EFSM models are more powerful and expressive than simple finite state machine (FSM) models, and are one of the most commonly used styles of models for model-based testing, especially for embedded systems. There are many languages and notations in use for writing EFSM models, but in this tutorial we write our EFSM models in the familiar Java programming language. To generate tests from these EFSM models we use ModelJUnit, which is an open-source tool that supports several stochastic test generation algorithms, and we also show how to write your own model-based testing tool. We show how EFSM models can be used for unit testing and system testing of embedded systems, and for offline testing as well as online testing.

Improving self care of patients with chronic disease using online personal health record

BACKGROUND: Effective management of chronic diseases such as prostate cancer is important. Research suggests a tendency to use self-care treatment options such as over-the-counter (OTC) complementary medications among prostate cancer patients. The current trend in patient-driven recording of health data in an online Personal Health Record (PHR) presents an opportunity to develop new data-driven approaches for improving prostate cancer patient care. However, the ability of current online solutions to share patients' data for better decision support is limited. An informatics approach may improve online sharing of self-care interventions among these patients. It can also provide better evidence to support decisions made during their self-managed care. AIMS: To identify requirements for an online system and describe a new case-based reasoning (CBR) method for improving self-care of advanced prostate cancer patients in an online PHR environment. METHOD: A non-identifying online survey was conducted to understand self-care patterns among prostate cancer patients and to identify requirements for an online information system. The pilot study was carried out between August 2010 and December 2010. A case-base of 52 patients was developed. RESULTS: The data analysis showed self-care patterns among the prostate cancer patients. Selenium (55%) was the common complementary supplement used by the patients. Paracetamol (about 45%) was the commonly used OTC by the patients. CONCLUSION: The results of this study specified requirements for an online case-based reasoning information system. The outcomes of this study are being incorporated in design of the proposed Artificial Intelligence (Al) driven patient journey browser system. A basic version of the proposed system is currently being considered for implementation.

Establishing initial trust in autonomous delay tolerant networks without centralised PKI

A Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is one where nodes can be highly mobile, with long message delay times forming dynamic and fragmented networks. Traditional centralised network security is difficult to implement in such a network, therefore distributed security solutions are more desirable in DTN implementations. Establishing effective trust in distributed systems with no centralised Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) such as the Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) scheme usually requires human intervention. Our aim is to build and compare different de- centralised trust systems for implementation in autonomous DTN systems. In this paper, we utilise a key distribution model based on the Web of Trust principle, and employ a simple leverage of common friends trust system to establish initial trust in autonomous DTN’s. We compare this system with two other methods of autonomously establishing initial trust by introducing a malicious node and measuring the distribution of malicious and fake keys. Our results show that the new trust system not only mitigates the distribution of fake malicious keys by 40% at the end of the simulation, but it also improved key distribution between nodes. This paper contributes a comparison of three de-centralised trust systems that can be employed in autonomous DTN systems.

Learning hierarchical prototypes of motion time series for interactive systems

Abstract. For interactive systems, recognition, reproduction, and generalization of observed motion data are crucial for successful interaction. In this paper, we present a novel method for analysis of motion data that we refer to as K-OMM-trees. K-OMM-trees combine Ordered Means Models (OMMs) a model-based machine learning approach for time series with an hierarchical analysis technique for very large data sets, the K-tree algorithm. The proposed K-OMM-trees enable unsupervised prototype extraction of motion time series data with hierarchical data representation. After introducing the algorithmic details, we apply the proposed method to a gesture data set that includes substantial inter-class variations. Results from our studies show that K-OMM-trees are able to substantially increase the recognition performance and to learn an inherent data hierarchy with meaningful gesture abstractions.

A coupled SPH/FEM analysis of portable water filled barriers

Portable water filled barriers (PWFB) are semi-rigid roadside barriers which have the potential to display good crash attenuation characteristics at low and moderate impact speeds. The traditional mesh based numerical methods alone fail to simulate this type of impact with precision, stability and efficiency. This paper proposes to develop an advanced simulation model based on the combination of Smoothed Particles Hydrodynamics (SPH), a meshless method, and finite element method (FEM) for fluid-structure analysis using the commercially available software package LS-Dyna. The interaction between SPH particles and FEA elements is studied in this paper. Two methods of element setup at the element boundary were investigated. The response of the impacted barrier and fluid inside were analysed and compared. The system response and lagging were observed and reported in this paper. It was demonstrated that coupled SPH/FEM can be used in full scale PWFB modelling application. This will aid the research in determining the best initial setup to couple FEA and SPH in road safety barrier for impact response and safety analysis in the future.

Hot topic detection in news blogs from the perspective of W2T

News blog hot topics are important for the information recommendation service and marketing. However, information overload and personalized management make the information arrangement more difficult. Moreover, what influences the formation and development of blog hot topics is seldom paid attention to. In order to correctly detect news blog hot topics, the paper first analyzes the development of topics in a new perspective based on W2T (Wisdom Web of Things) methodology. Namely, the characteristics of blog users, context of topic propagation and information granularity are unified to analyze the related problems. Some factors such as the user behavior pattern, network opinion and opinion leader are subsequently identified to be important for the development of topics. Then the topic model based on the view of event reports is constructed. At last, hot topics are identified by the duration, topic novelty, degree of topic growth and degree of user attention. The experimental results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

Configuring processes and business documents : an integrated approach to enterprise systems collaboration

Enterprise Systems (ES) provide standardized, off-theshelf support for operations and management within organizations. With the advent of ES based on a serviceoriented architecture (SOA) and an increasing demand of IT-supported interorganizational collaboration, implementation projects face paradigmatically new challenges. The configuration of ES is costly and error-prone. Dependencies between business processes and business documents are hardly explicit and foster component proliferation instead of reuse. Configurative modeling can support the problem in two ways: First, conceptual modeling abstracts from technical details and provides more intuitive access and overview. Second, configuration allows the projection of variants from master models providing manageable variants with controlled flexibility. We aim at tackling the problem by proposing an integrated model-based framework for configuring both, processes and business documents, on an equal basis; as together, they constitute the core business components of an ES.

From conceptual process models to running workflows : a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.