The effects of hot and cold temperatures on emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia

As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.

An observational study of nutrition and physical activity behaviours, knowledge, and advice in pregnancy

Maternal obesity, excess weight gain and lifestyle behaviours during pregnancy have been associated with future overweight and other adverse health outcomes for mothers and babies. This study compared the nutrition and physical activity behaviours of Australian healthy (BMI ≤ 25 k/m2) and overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) pregnant women and described their knowledge and receipt of health professional advice early in pregnancy. Methods Pregnant women (n=58) aged 29±5 (mean±s.d.) years were recruited at 16±2 weeks gestation from an Australian metropolitan hospital. Height and weight were measured using standard procedures and women completed a self administered semi-quantitative survey. Results Healthy and overweight women had very similar levels of knowledge, behaviour and levels of advice provided except where specifically mentioned. Only 8% and 36% of participants knew the correct recommended daily number of fruit and vegetable serves respectively. Four percent of participants ate the recommended 5 serves/day of vegetables. Overweight women were less likely than healthy weight women to achieve the recommended fruit intake (4% vs. 8%, p=0.05), and more likely to consume soft drinks or cordial (55% vs 43%, p=0.005) and take away foods (37% vs. 25%, p=0.002) once a week or more. Less than half of all women achieved sufficient physical activity. Despite 80% of women saying they would have liked education about nutrition, physical activity and weight gain, particularly at the beginning of pregnancy, less than 50% were given appropriate advice regarding healthy eating and physical activity. Conclusion Healthy pregnancy behaviour recommendations were not being met, with overweight women less likely to meet some of the recommendations. Knowledge of dietary recommendations was poor and health care professional advice was limited. There are opportunities to improve the health care practices and education pregnant women received to improve knowledge and behaviours. Pregnant women appear to want this.

Interfacial microstructure in Y1Ba2Cu3O7-δ high Tc superconductors

The microstructures of YBa2Cu3O7-δ ceramics prepared from freeze dried powders and containing an excess of CuO have been studied by analytical electron microscopy. Special attention has been paid to the interfacial microstructure. It was found that a liquid phase formed during sintering between 890°C and 920°C and this promoted grain growth and densification. Both clean grain boundaries and boundaries containing an amorphous intergranular film, which was rich in Cu, have been observed. Both CuO and BaCuO2 were present as secondary phases.

Electrochemical detection of dopamine and cytochrome c at a nanostructured gold electrode

A nanostructured gold surface consisting of closely packed outwardly growing spikes is investigated for the electrochemical detection of dopamine and cytochrome c. A significant electrocatalytic effect for the electrooxidation of both dopamine and ascorbic acid at the nanostructured electrode was found due to the presence of surface active sites which allowed the detection of dopamine in the presence of excess ascorbic acid to be achieved by differential pulse voltammetry. By simple modification with a layer of Nafion, the enhanced electrocatalytic properties of the nanostructured surface was maintained while increasing the selectivity of dopamine detection in the presence of interfering species such as excess ascorbic and uric acids. Also, upon modification of the nanostructured surface with a monolayer of cysteine, the electrochemical response of immobilised cytochrome c in two distinct conformations was observed. This opens up the possibility of using such a nanostructured surface for the characterisation of other biomolecules and in bio-electroanalytical applications.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Respiratory illness during winter : a cohort study of urban children from temperate Australia

Objective: To examine the epidemiology and burden of respiratory illness during winter in urban children from temperate Australia. Methods: We conducted a cohort study of healthy Melbourne children, aged from 12 to 71 months. Parents kept a daily respiratory symptom diary and recorded resource use when an influenza-like illness (ILI) occurred. Results: One-hundred and eighteen children had 137 ILI episodes over 12 weeks for a rate of 0.53 ILI episodes per child-month (95% CI 0.44-0.61). Risk factors for ILI included younger age, fewer people residing in the household, structured exposure to other children outside the home, and a higher household income. Episodes had a mean duration of 10.4 days with 64 visits to a general practitioner (46.7 GP visits per 100 episodes), 27 antibiotic courses prescribed (19.7 antibiotic courses per 100 episodes), and three overnight hospitalizations (2.2 admissions per 100 episodes). Parents reported an average of 11.7 h excess time spent caring for a child per episode. Conclusions: Respiratory illnesses are a common and largely neglected cause of illness in Australian children. Pathogen-specific data are required to better assess the likely impact of available and developing vaccines and other treatment options.

Observation of ions and particles near busy roads using a Neutral Cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS)

Motor vehicles emit large quantities of ions in the form of both charged particles and molecular cluster ions. While, the health effects of inhalation of charged particles is largely unexplored, the concentrations near busy roads and the distance to which these particles and ions are carried have important implications for the exposure of the large percentage of the population that lives close to such roadways. We measured ion concentrations using a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer (NAIS) near seven busy roads carrying on the average approximately 7000 vehicles hr-1 including about 15% heavy duty diesel vehicles. In this study, charged particle concentrations were measured as a function of downwind distance from the road for the first time. We show that, at a moderate wind speed of 2.0 m s-1, mean charged particle concentrations at the kerb were of the order of 2x104 cm-3 and, more importantly, decreased as d 0.6 where d is the distance from the road. While cluster ions were rapidly depleted by attachment to particles and were not carried to more than about 20 m from the road, elevated concentrations of charged particle were detected up to at least 400 m from the road. Most of the charge on the downwind side was carried on the larger particles, with no excess charge on particles smaller than about 10 nm. At 30 nm, particles carried more than double the charge they would normally carry in equilibrium. There are very few measurements of ions near road traffic and this is the first study of the spatial dispersion of charged particles from a road.

Coexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor with related factors is associated with a poor prognosis in non-small-cell lung cancer

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is commonly expressed in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and promotes a host of mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis. However, EGFR expression does not reliably predict prognosis or response to EGFR-targeted therapies. The data from two previous studies of a series of 181 consecutive surgically resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC patients who had survived in excess of 60 days were explored. Of these patients, tissue was available for evaluation of EGFR in 179 patients, carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX in 177 patients and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in 169 patients. We have previously reported an association between EGFR expression and MMP-9 expression. We have also reported that MMP-9 (P=0.001) and perinuclear (p)CA IX (P=0.03) but not EGFR expression were associated with a poor prognosis. Perinuclear CA IX expression was also associated with EGFR expression (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that coexpression of MMP-9 with EGFR conferred a worse prognosis than the expression of MMP-9 alone (P<0.001) and coexpression of EGFR and pCA IX conferred a worse prognosis than pCA IX alone (P=0.05). A model was then developed where the study population was divided into three groups: group 1 had expression of EGFR without coexpression of MMP-9 or pCA IX (number=21); group 2 had no expression of EGFR (number=75); and group 3 had coexpression of EGFR with pCA IX or MMP-9 or both (number=70). Group 3 had a worse prognosis than either groups 1 or 2 (P=0.0003 and 0.027, respectively) and group 1 had a better prognosis than group 2 (P=0.036). These data identify two cohorts of EGFR-positive patients with diametrically opposite prognoses. The group expressing either EGFR and or both MMP-9 and pCA IX may identify a group of patients with activated EGFR, which is of clinical relevance with the advent of EGFR-targeted therapies. © 2004 Cancer Research UK.

Apparent dietary intake in remote Aboriginal communities

Apparent per capita food and nutrient intake in six remote Australian Aboriginal communities using the ‘store-turnover’ method is described. The method is based on the analysis of community-store food invoices. The face validity of the method supports the notion that, under the unique circumstances of remote Aboriginal communities, the turnover of foodstuffs from the community store is a useful measure of apparent dietary intake for the community as a whole. In all Aboriginal communities studied, the apparent intake of energy, sugars and fat was excessive, while the apparent intake of dietary fibre and several nutrients, including folic acid, was low. White sugar, flour, bread and meat provided in excess of 50 per cent of the apparent total energy intake. Of the apparent high fat intake, fatty meats contributed nearly 40 per cent in northern coastal communities and over 60 per cent in central desert communities. Sixty per cent of the apparent high intake of sugars was derived from sugar per se in both regions. Compared with national Australian apparent consumption data, intakes of sugar, white flour and sweetened carbonated beverages were much higher in Aboriginal communities, and intakes of wholemeal bread, fruit and vegetables were much lower. Results of the store-turnover method have important implications for community-based nutrition intervention programs.

Voltage quality improvement in distribution networks containing DERs using UPQC

Single phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause voltage rise along distribution feeder and power imbalance among the phases. Usually transformer tap setting are used to mitigate voltage drop along feeders. However this can aggravate the voltage rise problem when DERs are connected. Moreover if the power generation in a phase is more than its load demand, the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. In this paper, a unified power quality compensator (UPQC) has been utilized to alleviate the voltage quality excess power circulation problems. Through analysis and simulation results, the mode of operation of UPQC is highlighted. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Benthic shift in a Solomon Islands' lagoon : corals to cyanobacteria

In June 2011 a large phytoplankton bloom resulted in a catastrophic mortality event that affected a large coastal embayment in the Solomon Islands. This consisted of an area in excess of 20 km2 of reef and soft sandy habitats in Marovo Lagoon, the largest double barrier lagoon in the world. This embayment is home to over 1200 people leading largely subsistence lifestyles depending on the impacted reefs for majority of their protein needs. A toxic diatom (Psuedo-nitzchia spp.) and toxic dinoflagellate (Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum) reached concentrations of millions of cells per litre. The senescent phytoplankton bloom led to complete de-oxygenation of the water column that reportedly caused substantial mortality of marine animal life in the immediate area within a rapid timeframe (24 h). Groups affected included holothurians, crabs and reef and pelagic fish species. Dolphins, reptiles and birds were also found dead within the area, indicating algal toxin accumulation in the food chain. Deep reefs and sediments, whilst initially unaffected, have now been blanketed in large cyanobacterial mats which have negatively impacted live coral cover especially within the deep reef zone (> 6 m depth). Reef recovery within the deep zone has been extremely slow and may indicate an alternative state for the system.

The pathophysiology of emphysema : considerations for critical care nursing practice

Emphysema is caused by exposure to cigarette smoking as well as alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency. It has been estimated to cost the National Health Service (NHS) in excess of £800 million per year in related health care costs. The challenges for Critical Care nurses are those associated with dynamic hyperinflation, Auto-PEEP, malnutrition and the weaning from invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation. In this paper we consider the impact of the pathophysiology of emphysema, its effects on other body systems as well as the impact acute exacerbations have when patients are admitted to the Intensive Care Unit.

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.